BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

One new poll and no change at all on the latest poll aggregate update.

Essential Research was the only new poll this week, and it has no bearing whatsoever on the voting intention numbers in BludgerTrack. However, there is a fair bit going on in the state breakdowns, with the Coalition losing a seat in New South Wales, but gaining one apiece in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. No new numbers this week on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,815 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. Mr Newbie @ #1644 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 7:47 pm

    Asperger’s ceased being a diagnosis in 2013. People diagnosed with it while it was a DSM diagnostic category (1994-2013) retain the diagnosis, but no new cases have been diagnosed after then.

    Sheesh! Okay, High Functioning Autism Spectrum Disorder. Aspergers is just a colloquial term I know but more concise.

    Also,
    …including lack of awareness about what is appropriate ‘personal space’/distance to keep from others/personal boundaries can be one of the symptoms of autism spectrum disorder more generally.

    Yes, and one would think that, by the time he was an adult, as is the case with most diagnosed, and undiagnosed, cases of HFASD, as the ‘old’ Aspergers diagnosis was most associated with, that he would have been taught that groping co-workers breasts, or sticking your foot in their glutes to feel the tone, was inappropriate.

  2. Lunch yesterday with family, including senior IT expert for BOM. According to him it’s been turned into a corporate, just ripe for privatisation. Makes me shudder. I’ll be sending some message up the Labor line to stop this and would encourage anyone else who is concerned to do the same.

  3. guytaur @ #1304 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 7:38 pm

    billshortenmp: Today the NBN announced another delay in its disastrous rollout. But the Communications Minister is more worried about what day a radio station chooses to play some songs. Ladies and gentlemen, the Turnbull Government.

    I think the triple J decision is a significant acknowledgement and not something to be belittled by Bill Shorten. Poor form.

  4. monica @ #1652 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 4:03 pm

    Lunch yesterday with family, including senior IT expert for BOM. According to him it’s been turned into a corporate, just ripe for privatisation. Makes me shudder. I’ll be sending some message up the Labor line to stop this and would encourage anyone else who is concerned to do the same.

    Did he tell you how they manage to massage the data to show Global Warming? 🙂

  5. A gentleman is a cad with patience

    Now THAT is a ripper of a topic. Seriously.

    Every relationship eventually involves pants around ankles and knickers hanging off bedposts.

    When is too soon? When is too late? When does a flirtation become obnoxious?

    It’s essentially what we have talked about here all day.

    For every revolting workplace grope there is a corresponding office romance.

    For every “Let’s fuck”, there’s a “Let’s go out to dinner and THEN let’s fuck.”

    What is the dividing line between arseholery and romance? Do men need a chit? Or can they chance their arm and take a risk?

    I’ll start the ball rolling by saying I’ve never been accused of rape or sexual predation. As far as I’m concerned all sexual relationships I’ve had have been consensual. But now I wonder.

    This is not to excuse sexual predators, or condone boorish behaviour. Please understand that.

    But how are we to understand whether it’s a “Go” or a “No”? And I mean both sexes here, not just blokes.

  6. Barnaby in Go Dau,
    Poor bugger is so stressed, it’s unbelievable. I’m seriously worried about him as he’s questioning his capacity to be an effective human being. His wife has recently and successfully survived a bout of cancer but they’ve had to move house a number of times due to not being able to afford to buy.

  7. Bushfire. Bill @ #1657 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 8:14 pm

    A gentleman is a cad with patience

    Now THAT is a ripper of a topic. Seriously.

    Every relationship eventually involves pants around ankles and knickers hanging off bedposts.

    When is too soon? When is too late? When does a flirtation become obnoxious?

    It’s essentially what we have talked about here all day.

    For every revolting workplace grope there is a corresponding office romance.

    For every “Let’s fuck”, there’s a “Let’s go out to dinner and THEN let’s fuck.”

    What is the dividing line between arseholery and romance? Do men need a chit? Or can they chance their arm and take a risk?

    I’ll start the ball rolling by saying I’ve never been accused of rape or sexual predation. As far as I’m concerned all sexual relationships I’ve had have been consensual. But now I wonder.

    This is not to excuse sexual predators, or condone boorish behaviour. Please understand that.

    But how are we to understand whether it’s a “Go” or a “No”? And I mean both sexes here, not just blokes.

    Lots of games. Not many Premierships!

  8. C@tmomma:

    Sheesh! Okay, High Functioning Autism Spectrum Disorder. Aspergers is just a colloquial term I know but more concise.

    Actually, no. When Asperger’s syndrome and autism (technically Pervasive Developmental Disorder back then) were separate entities, ‘high functioning autism’ (generally meaning individuals with autism who don’t have an associated intellectual disability) was still separate from Asperger’s. In a nutshell, people with Asperger’s had average or above average IQ but difficulties with the social aspects of communication. High functioning autism, back then, referred to much the same thing… but the distinction (which wasn’t rigidly adhered to) between them was that Asperger’s individuals had stronger verbal than nonverbal (visuospatial) intelligence, whereas high functioning autism individuals had stronger nonverbal (visuospatial) than verbal intelligence. However, the boundaries between both categories was often blurred and essentially rendered meaningless; hence why now there is just the single ‘autism spectrum disorder’ diagnostic cateogry, and ‘social communication disorder’ for those who don’t meet all of the ASD criteria. Some people who were previously diagnosed with Asperger’s would not meet the new, revised diagnostic criteria, but get to keep their label as it was valid when they were diagnosed.

    Confusing and arbitrary? That’s psychiatry for you.

    Yes, and one would think that, by the time he was an adult, as is the case with most diagnosed, and undiagnosed, cases of HFASD, as the ‘old’ Aspergers diagnosis was most associated with, that he would have been taught that groping co-workers breasts, or sticking your foot in their glutes to feel the tone, was inappropriate.

    True, yes, but even so, they may be prone to occasional lapses. However, I don’t buy the Asperger’s defence in Don Burke’s case, because he has not been diagnosed with it (and as I’ve explained, it’s no longer a diagnosis given).

    I don’t claim to be an autism ‘expert’ (but I have seen/assessed many kids with it), but, based on my recollection of Burke’s Backyard from many years ago (and before I became a ‘professional’), he doesn’t strike me as being on the spectrum. That’s not to say he mightn’t be, though, as some cases are very subtle. It is, ultimately, a subjective diagnosis, though (but with guidelines), but not one you make yourself, and ideally established through consensus by 3 different professionals and also factoring in developmental history (which can be difficult to obtain for adults).

  9. monica @ #1660 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 4:14 pm

    Barnaby in Go Dau,
    Poor bugger is so stressed, it’s unbelievable. I’m seriously worried about him as he’s questioning his capacity to be an effective human being. His wife has recently and successfully survived a bout of cancer but they’ve had to move house a number of times due to not being able to afford to buy.

    Some mates from Uni went into the BOM and the infiltration of politics on operations has always had a bad effect on staff.

    It can’t be pleasant for him! 🙁

  10. Woohoo looks like another win for Labor

    Lateline: Why @TurnbullMalcolm looks more likely to drop opposition to a royal commission into banking. @MattWordsworth has the report for @Lateline tonight. #auspol pic.twitter.com/9drXI4Ashx

  11. bengrubb: You may be asking yourselves, ‘Why oh why is NBN trying to save Telstra’s HFC network?’ My simple answer is: politics.

    It has to share the cable with Foxtel and it can’t get spectral efficiency to deliver fast speeds.

    Meanwhile, it can’t dump HFC as that’d look bad on Turnbull.

  12. Re the Don Burke exposure (pardon the pun)

    Melbourne has had its fair share of quote TV / Radio unquote personalities that for years got away with sexual abuse and assault …. including

    – a well known newsreader who liked to hang around schools to pick up boys

    – a well known presenter and host of a weekly entertainment program aimed at older folk but featured younger entertainers

    – rock host who had a casting couch much to the disdain of the government

    And more

  13. If Turnbull bows to pressure and has a RC into the banks the Coalition will set the terms of reference not the ALP. What’s the bet on something so limited in scope it will end up being a waste of time.?

  14. C@tmomna, our erstwhile next door neighbour was/is an “Aspy” ( her proud word for it, not mine).

    She wrote a book about it. About how her sensory perception was always crowded out (she had trouble in crowds), how she struggled with loving others (except her pet dogs), about how she could be obsessed with punctuality, to the second.

    It was all an amazing revelation to me. I never knew.

    She has returned to the Netherlands now, and although super-intelligent, is incapable of working. She lives in sponsored accommodation provided by the Dutch government. She ditched her lover and now lives alone, with her dog.

    My natural inclination is to think “What a waste!” but she writes occasionally and tells me she has figured out how to pretend to be happy. Not that she is unhappy. She just can’t really understand what this “happiness” thing us all about, and why so many seek it.

    Understanding her, for me, is like trying to understand an alien intelligence. I don’t judge her, I just can’t relate to the way she sees the world: black, white and no shades of grey. I don’t know whether she is tormented or content. I’m not sure she does, either.

  15. don @ Monday, November 27, 2017 at 8:19 pm (I don’t have the looxury of numbered posts)

    “I have annoyed GG and BB with one post.

    My work here is done”

    LOL.

    I was waiting for bemused to weigh in with the FRAT/BROTHERHOOD gangs up on/bullies/strikes a measly blow at a gay fella! routine. But alas, it wasn’t the sisterhood, so no comment from him.

    Seriously, was it really too hard for P1 to explain his/her “irony” statement.

    I read the comment as: “how ironic that the LGBTQI community is being blamed for all the current SSM legal strife”. But now, I’m not so sure.

    But, guytaur didn’t. So what. All P1 had to do was say what he/she meant.

    Instead, we’ve had a day of shit for shat/coy remarks. And then the heavyweights bulldozing in.

    I think, despite his (very polite) faults, guytaur rarely lets bullies get their way. And is a good ambassador for the LGBTQI community, in that sense.

    On the other hand, he sometimes needs to pull his head in, and just let things go. But that’s easy for me to say, when I belong to the majority hetero pool.

    As a member of a minority group, I think guytaur is a very valuable contributor to PB.

    That being said, I’m pleased BB has rediscovered his mojo. As a writer/opinionista/storyteller, he’s second to none, here. His wife has obviously had a torrid time and she was lucky to have him by her side. And it’s good to know they’re moving on from that period. Part of me hoped they’d sue the department. But you can’t have everything, you have to move on.

  16. Adrian

    The Marshall Islands are gone.

    Absolutely nothing can stop it now. Except perhaps for a Greens Party Government under Prime Minister Di Natale. They can do anything.

    That aside, we should be prepared, as the first or second highest per capita CO2 polluters in the Universe, to accept the entire Marshallese population of global warming refugees.

  17. So Don Burke whines to sycophant Tracey Grimshaw that he has Aspergers.

    Bullshit.

    Sorry Don you DON’T have Aspergers.

    I am diagnosed with Aspergers and bipolar and your so called symptoms don’t cut it for either type 1 or Type 2

    You are a fraud.

  18. Lateline: Why @TurnbullMalcolm looks more likely to drop opposition to a royal commission into banking.

    oo oo oo I know this one!

    Because he’s a fucking idiot that never should have staked so much on opposing it when he was already a political weakling, but now that everything is turning completely to shit he is rolling over to the latest bunch of loons that have taken possession of his testes in order to try and forestall for another day or two the final reckoning where what a completely clueless, spineless pissant who has only ever been in it for his own ego he is becomes so inescapable that his empty suit simply cannot be propped up as a simulacrum of a leader anymore and his lack of substance collapses under the weight of his self absorption so that he finally disappears up his own arse to the joyous cheers of the masses.

    That’s the right answer isn’t it?

  19. Burke’s just the first sausage on the barbecue lit by for Trump. The disgusting claim of “Asperger’s” notwithstanding, Burke is about to be reduced to a small pile of reeking ash – and he won’t be the last. I suspect that within a week of just scraping in in New England, Baarnaby Beetroot’s owners will decide that he’s for the knackery too, because the whole LNP zeppelin is about to crash and burn.

    Personally I think this all starts (but definitely does not end) with the election of Trump – and the revelation that it is possible to buy a US Presidency without even pretending to have any virtue. All of the subsequent auto da fe follows from that global intake of breath, just over a year ago. Burke is just the local tip of an enormous fatburg in the sewer of public discourse. Despite the sleaze, the issues with Burke, Moore, Trump and Joyce is not primarily the sexual nature of the abuse, but the assumption of the untrammeled power of money. This has been dying since the GFC showed everyone that the Chicago School were even worse than the immoral Randroids they appeared to be.

    It’s like one of those pseudo IQ tests: What comes next: Nixon, Reagan, Bush(s), Trump…

  20. sonar @ #1674 Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 4:45 pm

    If Turnbull bows to pressure and has a RC into the banks the Coalition will set the terms of reference not the ALP. What’s the bet on something so limited in scope it will end up being a waste of time.?

    Also they could give it a limited time so it reports before they plan to go to the polls and then Labor could not broaden or extend it.

    Maybe the HC could help to prevent this with more s44 chaos. 🙂

  21. And anyone stupid enough to mix business with pleasure deserves all they get

    I don’t know the context for this, but all I can say is that people are human and things happen. The last relationship I had before my current one was with a man I worked with. We didn’t work in the same area or even the same division. But we were in the same organisation, so colleagues in all technicality.

    At work there are a couple of people in relationships with colleagues. One is going swimmingly, but the pair are young so it may not last, while the other is a married man with children and a single woman, also with children. I’m up for whatever happens with the former, seeing as both partners are single with no attachments o fallout if it goes south could be amicable but could also be no so amicable. But am not seeing good things with the latter simply because affairs always end in tears for someone.

  22. Kezza, modesty forbids me from repeating it, but coming from you (with whom I have crossed swords in the past) that is a real, and much appreciated compliment.

    Thankee.

  23. BB
    Relationships are for outside of work. That takes care of that particular dilemma.

    Puffy, sad to say, some of the best relationships start in the workplace. And end there. And never get going at all there. (It’s not all beer and skittles)

    Where you have a boy (or a girl) and where you have a girl (or another boy), you will always find there is a chance of happy talk, even in the workplace.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBWjNlBko70

    Or else how are you going to have a dream come true?

  24. The issue isn’t so much about relationships in the workplace or otherwise, but behavior.
    I read on the weekend a good rule of thumb (written by a woman for men who might be clueless).
    wtte:
    “The way you have been behaving to the intern/associate (what-ever), would you behave that way to the company CEO (assuming the CEO was female) ?”

    There certainly could be a case of a female CEO and a male subordinate, having an relationship – from a one night stand through to marriage, but how did the male behave to the woman ?

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