The latest Essential Research result appears to have Labor leading 54-46 (it says 52% to 46% in the report, but it also says there is no change). GhostWhoVotes was somehow able to relate that the primary votes were Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (steady). The poll finds 47% saying the government should run its full term, compared with 37% who favour an early election. Thirty-six per cent said they expected Labor to win the next election, compared with 20% for the Coalition, and 18% for a hung parliament.
The poll also found 63% of the view that marriage celebrants should be allowed to refuse to officiate at same-sex weddings, with 27% opposed. Other related issues were finely balanced: 48% opposed the notion that businesses should have the right to refuse service to gay weddings, while 43% supported it; 42% supported parents being able to remove their children from classes that did not reflect a traditional view of marriage, while 44% were opposed.
Full Essential poll now up
TPP ALP 54 (0) L/NP 46 (0)
Primary L/NP 35(-1) ALP 38(0) GRN 9(0) NXT 3(0) ON 8(0) OTH 7(0)
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Essential-Report_211117.pdf
Time for a new generation of “super cautious Volvo owner” jokes?
The cashless welfare card, Indue is owned by Star Group which has just gone into receivership
https://stockhead.com.au/tech/atm-owner-stargroup-pulls-the-plug-after-debt-talks-fail/
It’s a sign of serious mismanagement when you go broke with a license to print money.
SquigglyRick: Lol Labor did some “research” – qualitative, just 50 people – of inner city Greens voters and concluded they are snobs. theaustralian.com.au/national-affai…
‘Asha Leu says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2017 at 9:32 am
Come on, guys, why are we all bothering with the interminable Labor/Greens squabbling when we can just sit back and enjoy the show of the Turnbull government disintegrating before our eyes.’
Not at all a squabble. This is deadly serious.
By locking up the real environmentalists’ vote, the Greens Party is a major contributor to the death of half the Great Barrier Reef, the lack of a functioning ETS, and the pillaging of MDB water.
Environmentalists used to have real power. This real power delivered such vital environmental outcomes as Fraser Island and the Wet Tropics.
The Greens Party has put them out of political play.
That is not a squabble. It is deadly serious stuff.
sonar:
Oh, let it be true. Can you imagine?
guytaur says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2017 at 9:54 am
Cat
Again don’t fall for briefly’s view.
It’s not purely my view. Gs are Labor-phobic. We see it all the time.
By the way, is there a link somewhere to a list of the various emojis and the code used for them?
citizen @ #102 Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 – 6:00 am
Doesn’t that undermine the whole concept of Uber?
briefly
Yeah yaah thats why there are Green supporting Labor governments more often than the LNP when its their decision.
Facts contradict your prejudice.
The people I feel sorry for are the Greens Party youth. They are being led up the political garden path by the cynical likes of Di Natale and Rhiannon.
Most of the young folk would not remember a time when the environmentalists actually had real power and exercised it to telling effect.
The Greens Party has been so effective at gutting environmental gains that the Greens Party youth actually believe that this powerless is natural and will only be fixed when the Greens Party becomes government.
With the Greens vote being solidly stuck well below 20%, this will never happen.
So, the youth are wasting their time, their idealism, their integrity and their energy on a dead end.
BigD
Nope. Thats been Uber aim all along. Self driving cars.
Thats why they don’t want to pay proper wages to drivers. They regard them as an accessory to their business model.
Bw –
So Labor’s conclusion is that these suburbs will vote Green for a while but later they will become too expensive for the existing Red Greens and as they, having been forced out to the ‘burbs will probably stay Green but will probably give Labor their second preference or just vote Labor.
The ‘inner suburbs’ are more likely to end up Lib/conservative with some leanings still towards ‘save the planet’.
Brian Trumbles Great Tax Adventure vers 12.0
What a pathetic excuse for a human being he is.
And no, he’s not trying to survive to Christmas. That is far too long term a horizon for him to be looking to. Nothing is occupying his thoughts beyond about Dec 5. He might start worrying about Christmas after Bennelong.
thanks sprocket for posting all that info on Murphy.
He did so much to loosen the chains of religion on Australian society which is why they targeted him.
As many commentators said on the dinner and the conversation the notes on it showed the four people there consumed something like 4-6 bottles of wine and a couple of bottles of whiskey, it was a wonder anyone remembered what was said by who to whom let alone that there was an actual dinner.
From your post I think it mentioned 79% of marriages now are civil celebrants, so the lnp want to nobble marriage equality on behalf of the 20% choosing a religious ceremony.
Murphy took away a huge revenue stream plus control from religions with his reforms.
The beauty of his civil celebrants was people could also choose where they wanted to get married, in their front yard, on a beach, in a park, the religion rear guard option against this was that these marriages should only be performed in a office, like a town clerks one, so as to downgrade and separate a civil marriage from a church one (sound familiar).
The UK had these restrictions until just recently.
Murphy also provided for naming ceremonies in place of christenings for those who wanted a special day without the religion.
The other huge move was no fault divorce which started women on the path to equality in relationships, this particularly enraged the religions with it taking power away from men and the church.
In the 55-45 Newspoll the combined L-NP and PHON was 44% (34+10) and Labor and Greens was the same as this Essential, 47% (34+9). This 54-46 Essential, however, is even lower for L-NP and PHON, 43% (35+8). 54-46 seems a bit high for Lib/NP.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2017 at 10:06 am
briefly
Yeah yaah thats why there are Green supporting Labor governments more often than the LNP when its their decision.
Life is fraught with contradictions for Gs. This is just one of them.
BiGD
Not really. Uber gets rid of a major cost – the drivers. The service will still be the same.
The logic is sublime! If you own a big house, you must be a Liberal voter at heart.
I think the same sort of logic was used to prove the Global Warming is a hoax – because Al Gore has a mansion with lots of lights.
I am now very suspicious of Anthony Albanese, who owns 4 houses. He probably secretly votes Liberal Democrat. Splitter.
Sohar
Interesting math. But the trend is the thing. And the trend says that Turnbull is sinking deeper and deeper into the merde.
poroti (Block)
Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 – 9:52 am
Comment #92
KayJay
Because a TEAL is too big for duck hunters ? You may even remember them…
“Isn’t that effing wonderful ” he exlaimed with a smile and a look of sheer delight. “I wonder what that thing is, could it be one of them Solent Mk somethings:?:”. ✈
No, I don’t remember them. There may be some information stored in the right rear, emergency, section of my brain, only accessible after (or during) a transient ischemic attack.
Thanks Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ Mr. Poroti. Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ
@ C@t – The Greens are anti-union, according to a poll of 50 people, where you didn’t see what the question was.
The cashless welfare card, Indue is owned by Star Group which has just gone into receivership
https://stockhead.com.au/tech/atm-owner-stargroup-pulls-the-plug-after-debt-talks-fail/
It’s a sign of serious mismanagement when you go broke with a license to print money.
Maybe Indue needed their own cashless business welfare card that restricted where they could direct funds billie?
Boris and Sprocket
The Roman Catholic church has been throwing its considerable weight around on marriage equality and on religious freedoms.
Catholic priests preside over only 10% of all marriages.
Tail meet dog.
Asha Leu @ #108 Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 – 10:04 am
Hold your horses, pardner. I will dig out my emoji addresses and post in a minute or so. 😵
What a waste of money engaging a focus group when we can get one person’s feelpinions for free here!
And they know what everyone else is thinking too.
I dont own any property – what does that make me?
Important finding in Essential.
“42% have a lot or some trust in the Government to do what is right for Australia and 53% have not much or no trust.”
VE
Real workers need to understand one vital fact in their own self interest.
It does not matter what the Greens stand for in relation to unions. Not at all. It is totally irrelevant.
While the Greens Party has been in existence bosses have slurped $17 billion in workers’s Superannuation.
And the Greens have been unable to do a thing about it.
The take-home message: if you have an issue, a big issue, a large issue, the Greens are a dead end lot of powerless folk.
No amount of grandstanding by the likes of Di Natale can hide that ugly fact.
If you want to waste a vote, vote Greens Party.
If you want a dead Reef, vote Greens Party.
If you do not want an effective ETS, vote Greens Party.
Wages not rising, so why do Australian middle income earners need tax cuts to save them from bracket creep? Will someone ask Malcolm to”Please explain?”
At a time when conservative Parties are in disarray, progressive ones squabble about what they already have.
Surely the progressive best interest is served by everyone putting their resources into attacking conservative Parties to maximise the gains.
Once that is done then squabble about the pieces of the pie but at the moment the most important thing is to expand the pie.
Labor fighting Green and Green fighting Labor does nothing to this end.
Asha Leu @ #108 Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 – 10:04 am
This is the primary list with codes.
http://www.amp-what.com/unicode/search/emoj
I also use:-
https://fsymbols.com/bookmarklet/
There are a couple of other packs. See how you go with this lot.
When you first use these – open a new tab – go to address xxxxxx and then pin the tab.
Barney in Go Dau:
I can only agree.
@ Boer War – you’ll be delighted to learn that we have preferential voting, making all of your points wrong.
Thanks KayJay!
ratsak @ #114 Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 – 10:07 am
As usual, the government stenographers had any vaguely positive story for the government as the lead item on their radio news, giving both Malcolm and Julie an airing to tell us about their wonderful thought bubble.
By the time the story reached PM at least the reporter had realised that there was actually no detail to this announcement, but still gave Trumble the last word.
‘CTar1 says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2017 at 10:07 am
Bw –
I assume that Di Natale is not one of the red greens. He seems to have done nicely out of neo-Liberal econonomics.
So Labor’s conclusion is that these suburbs will vote Green for a while but later they will become too expensive for the existing Red Greens and as they, having been forced out to the ‘burbs will probably stay Green but will probably give Labor their second preference or just vote Labor.
The ‘inner suburbs’ are more likely to end up Lib/conservative with some leanings still towards ‘save the planet’.’
Yep.
The ‘leanings’ will be less about the planet and much more about essentially self-absorbed amenities: clean air, clean water, clean streets, absence of riff raff and hoi polloi, unruly youth and recent migrants, pleasant urban streetscapes and smashed avocadoes.
The skip across this path to the Conservatives for the upper-middle class knowledge economy Greens will be done in less time than it takes to froth a latte.
Some of the more fatalistic members of the coalition might have given up on the next election and be considering holding it earlier rather than later in order to force an incoming Labor government into a short term.
I couldn’t be bothered looking up the relevant acts and so forth, but off the top of my head the deadline for that would be about mid-March. An election later than that would give the new government a chance to hold a half-senate election a few months later while still in the honeymoon period, and then stretch the HoR term to its limit and get the two houses back in sync in 2021.
Does anyone else have any thoughts on this matter?
Brian_Boru @ #130 Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 – 10:17 am
Yes, occurred to me too. I’m sure that any alert journalists would have asked him that question…
jeremycorbyn: On #TransDayofRemembrance we remember trans people who have been killed by hatred. Let’s recommit ourselves to ending transphobic violence and supporting equal rights and justice for trans people.
Make that AM, but the same difference…
Guytaur
Stop baiting BW.
When he gets onto anti green stuff he is like a pit bull. No stopping him.
Sohar says:
Tuesday, November 21, 2017 at 10:16 am
Important finding in Essential.
“42% have a lot or some trust in the Government to do what is right for Australia and 53% have not much or no trust.”
True…a very important finding.
ShoebridgeMLC: Voted for the Sulphur Crested Cockatoo – it’s a bird that takes the piss out of whatever we are doing on the streets below them #BirdOfTheYear theguardian.com/environment/ng…
https://twitter.com/shoebridgemlc/status/932753206089617409
Currently the Ibis is getting all the publicity
Any sightings yet of a journo calling the tax thingy another chance for Truffles to reset/set the agenda/assert his leadership yada yada yada
‘Teal Greens will not vote for Labor,
but
Red Greens are the hardest to turn to Labor.’
And the logical response to that is for Labor not to chase Green votes.
Which is okay, because these voters are clearly voting along tribal lines, and I like my policy to be based on evidence not emotion (whilst putting people first).
bencubby: #voteibis twitter.com/firstdogonmoon…
firstdogonmoon: the problem with the bird poll is that people are not voting en masse for the ibis as “best bird” but as “bird I see when i walk out the front door”. they’re not “people with bird opinions” they are simply “people who live in sydney” and as such should be banned from the poll
Boer
di Natale is the sort of doctor those mythical Toorak doctor’s wives are married to.
Nice little pad in the city and a farm for the weekends – one you don’t need to actually make money from, so you can be all holier-than-thou compared to the farmers who need to turn a quid.
russellmahoney: The ibis is the Trump or Brexit of late 2017. Disgruntled voters not sharing in the benefits of globalisation have used their vote to send a message to bird loving class that they’re not to be ignored.