Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research polls on early election prospects and the next stage of same-sex marriage, and records little change on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research result appears to have Labor leading 54-46 (it says 52% to 46% in the report, but it also says there is no change). GhostWhoVotes was somehow able to relate that the primary votes were Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (steady). The poll finds 47% saying the government should run its full term, compared with 37% who favour an early election. Thirty-six per cent said they expected Labor to win the next election, compared with 20% for the Coalition, and 18% for a hung parliament.

The poll also found 63% of the view that marriage celebrants should be allowed to refuse to officiate at same-sex weddings, with 27% opposed. Other related issues were finely balanced: 48% opposed the notion that businesses should have the right to refuse service to gay weddings, while 43% supported it; 42% supported parents being able to remove their children from classes that did not reflect a traditional view of marriage, while 44% were opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,860 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Asha Leu @ #1842 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 10:47 pm

    The government is truly falling to pieces, even moreso than usual. I’m not seeing a way back for them. A change of leader might provide a short-term bounce, but won’t fix any of their underlying problems. This level of disfunction is only fixed by lengthy stint in opposition.

    After these new leaks and John Alexander’s “comedy” routine, you’d have to wonder if a part of Turnbull is wishing the party would just hurry up and put him out of his misery.

    I knew the first of JA’s jokes and it really is quite innocuous.

    As for the second, I didn’t recognise it, and the little I heard suggested it was both racist and trivialising rape. Very poor taste at the very least.

  2. MM:

    Question for William: How much control do you have over the ads on here? The first ad I saw tonight was for Milo Yiannopoulos

    Ugh, I keep getting those damn Milo ads too, interspersed within a near constant stream of LNP ads for the QLD election.

  3. CTar1 @ #1821 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 5:43 pm


    Only, of course, if the Rohingya have a Myanmar government document that identifies them as having been resident in Myanmar. The Myanamar military confiscated as many documents before ‘driving’ them over the border into Bangladesh.

    Myanmar and Bangladesh have signed a memorandum of understanding for the return home of hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees who fled to the neighbouring country to escape a Myanmar army crackdown, a senior Myanmar official says.

    Yep, as you suggest the transition back will no doubt be a smooth and easy one.

    The Rohingya tennis continues! 🙁


    A statement from Juncker to give the UK negotiaters a ‘little push’ –

    BERN (Reuters) – European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said on Thursday that it would be seen in the next few days whether Brexit talks with Britain had made enough progress to enter a second phase of negotiations.

    “The worst is behind us, but there has not been sufficient progress for me to say that we can enter the second phase of the talks about our relationship in the future. We’ll see that within the next few days,” he said.

  5. Bishop is too rat cunning to destabilise! JB has a desire to remain in her present position and that will only happen with Mal remaining as PM.
    All the Libs, both inside the cabinet and inside the cabinet in exile know the difficulties they face just to survive and get to the next election.
    The citizenship thing will leave them without a majority so they need to get something done re SSM and RC banking.
    Mal and JB and all Mal’s support base within cabinet,which has all but disappeared, need the Xmas break to ready themselves for an election.
    Border security, the socialism threat, electricity failure, budget repair, jobs and growth, house prices and taxation scare campaigns are all set to go. Earlier than planned but with no other choice.
    The Libs don’t have a ready war chest, the Barnaby thing is ready to explode, the RWNJs aren’t ready for the coup, Alexander the pommie comedian has premiered, the marginal seat holders know they’re finished and the polls are heavily foreboding.
    Just the blood to be spilt …… everywhere!
    This weekends QLD election could be the tipping point or perhaps the next newspoll or the citizen tabling.
    But it is almost certain that the Government is gone. The cabinet leaks and whether its JB or whoever is just the putrid whiff of fear as it all crumbles before them and they’re helpless to stop the inevitable.
    For Bill and Labor, its xmas just around the corner and all they have to do is behave themselves and they’ll be granted their wishes.

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