As the clock ticks down, the poll tracker is recording it as 52.0-48.0 to Labor, although it has only been fed with three new results during the campaign period, so much of the polling having been at individual electorate level. The trend has been one of steady improvement for Labor since June, but everything remains contingent on the unknown quantity of One Nation, who are on 17.7% of the primary vote.
Bits and pieces:
• Labor MP Jo-Ann Miller, who has been a constant thorn in the government’s side since she was dumped as Police Minister in December 2015, conducted a pointedly cheery media opportunity yesterday with Pauline Hanson. It looked for all the world like Miller was laying the groundwork for a defection to One Nation, who are not fielding a candidate for her seat of Bundamba. The development greatly complicates Labor’s efforts to promote itself as the stable alternative to an LNP-One Nation alliance on the right.
• Labor chose the Gold Coast Convention Centre as the venue for its campaign launch, and featured Gaven candidate Meaghan Scanlon as one of only two supporting speakers – the other being boxing champion Jeff Horn. The LNP launch was conducted in the unfamiliar surrounds of The Triffid, a Fortitude Valley live music venue.
• Sportsbet has flipped its odds in favour of the LNP, who are in from $2 to $1.87, with Labor out from $1.75 to $1.95. Ladbrokes has gone the other way, calling it dead even at $1.88 apiece, after last week having the LNP marginal favourites at $1.83, with Labor on $1.95. However, it has Labor as favourites in 47 seats individually compared with 42 for the LNP, along with two where there’s nothing in it and two favoured to remain with Katter’s Australian Party. Nowhere is One Nation rated the favourite, the closest being Lockyer on $2.25 with the LNP on $1.62.
• Ladbrokes now has the LNP as favourites in Mundingburra, with the LNP in from $3.50 to $1.90, Labor out from $1.50 to $1.95, and One Nation out from $5.50 to $8. One Nation’s Steve Dickson has lost his favourite status in Buderim, having gone from $1.85 to $2.10, with the LNP in from $1.91 to $1.67. There also seems to have been money coming in for Hetty Johnston in Macalister, who started on $6 and is now on $2.25, although Labor remain favourites at $1.30.