Queensland election minus three days

As the finishing post comes into view, a mixed assortment of local developments, poll aggregation and news from betting markets.

As the clock ticks down, the poll tracker is recording it as 52.0-48.0 to Labor, although it has only been fed with three new results during the campaign period, so much of the polling having been at individual electorate level. The trend has been one of steady improvement for Labor since June, but everything remains contingent on the unknown quantity of One Nation, who are on 17.7% of the primary vote.

Bits and pieces:

• Labor MP Jo-Ann Miller, who has been a constant thorn in the government’s side since she was dumped as Police Minister in December 2015, conducted a pointedly cheery media opportunity yesterday with Pauline Hanson. It looked for all the world like Miller was laying the groundwork for a defection to One Nation, who are not fielding a candidate for her seat of Bundamba. The development greatly complicates Labor’s efforts to promote itself as the stable alternative to an LNP-One Nation alliance on the right.

• Labor chose the Gold Coast Convention Centre as the venue for its campaign launch, and featured Gaven candidate Meaghan Scanlon as one of only two supporting speakers – the other being boxing champion Jeff Horn. The LNP launch was conducted in the unfamiliar surrounds of The Triffid, a Fortitude Valley live music venue.

• Sportsbet has flipped its odds in favour of the LNP, who are in from $2 to $1.87, with Labor out from $1.75 to $1.95. Ladbrokes has gone the other way, calling it dead even at $1.88 apiece, after last week having the LNP marginal favourites at $1.83, with Labor on $1.95. However, it has Labor as favourites in 47 seats individually compared with 42 for the LNP, along with two where there’s nothing in it and two favoured to remain with Katter’s Australian Party. Nowhere is One Nation rated the favourite, the closest being Lockyer on $2.25 with the LNP on $1.62.

• Ladbrokes now has the LNP as favourites in Mundingburra, with the LNP in from $3.50 to $1.90, Labor out from $1.50 to $1.95, and One Nation out from $5.50 to $8. One Nation’s Steve Dickson has lost his favourite status in Buderim, having gone from $1.85 to $2.10, with the LNP in from $1.91 to $1.67. There also seems to have been money coming in for Hetty Johnston in Macalister, who started on $6 and is now on $2.25, although Labor remain favourites at $1.30.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

40 comments on “Queensland election minus three days”

  1. I thought a Liberal minority government was inevitable at the start of the campaign, with greens picking up a couple of seats even, but that looks unlikely now due to the adani backflip.

    I havent looked at seat by seat, im at arms length to it all, but it feels like Labor will go close, and its going to a painful post election negotiation for everyone involved. Queensland really need to bring back an upper house to provide some stability.

    Also consider undecideds tend to go with the government, which could be enough to make a difference, at least they do when its a Liberal governments, not sure if applies here.

  2. The Adani backflip doesn’t seem to have pleased much of anyone. It was terribly handled since it neither took a clear environmental or a clear jobs / dedication to the regions stance.

    It’s pretty much impossible to call this with state vote so close and seat by seat polling being unreliable, as well as no modern data on single member CPV in Queensland. An unexpected distribution of PHON voters could see them do anything from win *nothing* to make Malcolm Roberts the member for Ipswich and the PHON Leader in an LNP /PHON coalition. It’s a nightmare.

  3. It is certainly looking a bit better for Labor than at the start of the campaign, though One Nation remains the big wild card. Fingers crossed that Labor scrapes together a majority. The prospect of an LNP/One Nation coalition is too horrifying to even contemplate – while it probably would be the best thing possible for QLD Labor’s long term electoral prospects (not to mention federal Labor), those morons will have four solid years to do a lot of damage in the meantime.

    As for Jo-Ann Miller, you’d have to think she’s planning to defect soon enough. I can’t imagine she’s got many friends left in the Labor caucus. I wonder if she’s One Nation’s back-up plan in case Labor wins a one seat majority (or just gets the numbers to govern in minority without One Nation), at which point she will switch parties and turn One Nation into the kingmakers.

    Or am I expecting too much in the way of actual strategy from One Nation and Miller?

  4. From One Nation ? Yeah. From Miller probably not.

    I still can’t believe we were idiotic enough as a state to vote for longer terms when our governments already have ~0 effective checks. We deserve everything we get from that one.

  5. I doubt Jo-Ann Miller will defect to ONP. She’s a lefty. I think she’s just trying to deal herself into as powerful a position as possible to try to get a ministry again.

    I hope Labor gets a majority of at least a few seats and it can dump her, as I suspect most rank and file members would like to do, because of her self indulgent behaviour during the last parliament.

  6. ajm:

    I doubt Jo-Ann Miller will defect to ONP. She’s a lefty. I think she’s just trying to deal herself into as powerful a position as possible to try to get a ministry again.

    Oh, I wasn’t aware she was a member of the left. Why on earth is she so chummy with One Nation, then?

  7. Hopefully it doesn’t do too much political damage. It’ll be interesting to see what the exit polls are on election night.

    Sportsbet odds are now at $1.92 each.

  8. Honestly, from what I’ve been hearing, the Greens are strong to take Maiwar (being ahead of ALP on primaries) with LNP sitting on ~38%.

    South Brisbane will stay ALP. PHON will pick up two seats it seems.

    The rest… barring something insane happening, it’s got the feeling of an election of a return of Government. Not an election of change. Worst comes to worst, I feel ALP/GRN informal coalition would steal Government over an LNP/PHON one – given the independents in play.

    But, I sincerely don’t think it’ll get there. It’ll be a majority Government, but a small majority Government.

    Also, let us not forget how devastating losing Maiwar would be – it’s the old seat of Indooroopilly, the Shadow Treasurers seat… and it’s gone for all money from what I’ve heard.

  9. I dunno if exit polls will be useful since so much of this turns on PHON support and that’s going to be most relevant in rural areas with scattered and relatively small booths which makes exit polling difficult. Also if the pattern follows history PHON (as a conservative party) will show stronger results on postal votes than on the day.

    So exit polls might be misleading unless there’s a decisive break one way or the other.

  10. Better half and I have just voted at the Mansfield pre poll station. No Greens volunteers that I noticed but ALP, LNP, and ONP each had three or four there, including the ONP candidate, handing out their respective cards. We were the only voters in the station at the time. ECQ worker said that the day had been slow but steady.

  11. Yeah, Greens are definitely concentrating resources this year.

    Hmmmm, interesting that PHON seems to have ground game going this year. Weirdly that may help Labor , as the natural PHON -> LNP pref flow is higher than the relative number of Labor MPs hit by voting against the incumbent.

    Especially since Labor incumbents are a bit overrepresented where PHON isn’t running at all.

  12. This is difficult to estimate as a lot of seats are potentially up for grabs.pt all parties except kap to win and lose seats……. but pick a narrow labor win………there will be surprised in provincial city and the marginal seats near by

  13. I will say from handing out HTVs at prepolls the percentage of early voters who take HTVs is small (well below half). I’m hoping this isn’t an indication of a plan to vote “as normal” because it will give a big jump in informal rate due to CPV being introduced if it is.

    My optimistic hope is that these are committed voters who actually keep an eye on politics or have looked at relevant HTVs online or are planning to in the booth.

  14. Oh, and for all the if’s and but’s of this “back to compulsory, what about PHON” story – the ALP still have the decisive advantage of Sophomore Surge.

    I think all things being even, an LNP 2pp of around 50.8-51.2 would be required to take government – especially with the loss of provisional LNP seats such as Maiwar.

  15. The Sophomore Surge effect would be strongly reflected in 2PP vote share if it’s decisive(because it increases the candidates vote share and nearly all Labor MPs are getting it) . It may still result in a mild ALP win if they manage to hold some of their FNQ seats on tight margins , if they slightly underperform generally in their traditionally stronger seats in your scenario bit the 2PP would have to be pretty close

  16. @ ajm:

    I doubt Jo-Ann Miller will defect to ONP. She’s a lefty.

    (hope that quote code worked)

    Very doubtful, she could technically but as far as returning to the Bundamba electorate after she did, she would need to borrow a personnel carrier from the Enoggera army barracks to go back to the local office.

  17. Hansen got into a big stoush with the ALP candidate at Hervey Bay Pre-Poll today. She had cameras rolling and the Press was all over it. She behaved like an “attack dog” from reports I received.

    This is one seat where the sitting LNP MP is getting ON preferences but his vote has crashed and he may come third. The donkey vote is with ALP as Greens first ALP second on ballot paper Interestingly the LNP has preferences going to the ALP ahead of ON which could make a difference if LNP prefs get distributed.

    Saturday night will be an interesting night in Hervey Bay.

  18. This election has echos of One Nation past, in my mind.

    They kind of imploded during/after the Queensland election which was held after the Federal Election she did well in. There are Federal defections and controversies, there are local issues (as mentioned above).

    I cant help but wonder if PHON is heading down the same path ON did… it’s just got that… feeling.

  19. Hahaha…watched the confrontation in Hervey Bay today.
    Seriously how Pauline Hanson gets the support she does is beyond me.
    The women is a fool.
    Good luck Queensland if One Nation are supporting a minority LNP government after Friday.
    Because by god you’re going to need it.

  20. Reading a Queensland Times article that came out this week. The notional 13.5% ALP seat of Jordan is too close to call. Word I have heard from those in the know is that one of the Independents is rapidly shortening in odds to take the seat.

  21. I’ve been told that PHON is preferencing Lib over Labor in a bunch of seats with sitting Libs. And PHON does seem to have some ground organisation this time around. Thats not exactly good news..

  22. @Elaugaufein I’ve heard the opposite. To ensure a repeat of WA doesn’t happen PHON has been *very* careful to ensure that sitting members are put last – regardless of if they’re LNP/ALP or Ind.

    Maiwar is an excellent example, I saw their HTV card and it had the Shadow Treasurer last.

    Plus, we’re overlooking the fact that PHON voters very, very, very rarely follow HTV cards.

  23. She’s not tagged as PHON on the Greens HTV all ectorates book and that fricking thing is 2 double sided A4 pages since only the Greens identified the party of all candidates on their big book. Liberal and Labor took the (probably more sensible) choice of a single double sided A4 page with just candidate names and recommended votes. I’ll check QEC now.

    Edit – QEC has her as indie too.

  24. Certainly the Greens are in with a chance in Maiwar, but the ALP candidate is excellent and hard working, with very strong enthusiastic support base.

    Have not been following the mood in South Brisbane so not sure what will happen.

    Out of interest whee do people think the old PUP voters will go. In many cases they were protest voters – third party of the moment. Will they go to ON, greens or independents?

  25. Maiwar will be one to watch.

    William reports two polls which while they have a different outcome have the following things in commom

    BOTH show a big swing against the LNP’s Emerson 6 and 7% in primaries. So allowing for the inevitable late swing back to tories, it looks as if Emerson faces a 5% swing bringing him to 43%.

    In both polls as may be expected this swing goes to independents pushing then to say 8%

    The ONLY difference between the polls then relates to movements between Greens. Labor and independents.

    This is actually not at all surprising and neither poll may be wrong. In Maiwar I suspect that many voters will be oscillating between ALP and Greens right up until they cast their vote. Both candidates are attractive and progressive. Both essentially share the same values. It is mostly about Adani.

    The recent backflip has probably tilted it to the ALP but it is not clear what the Chinese funding announcement will do.

  26. Anyway I am trying to do a seat prediction for saturday.

    Essentially there are TWO separate elections. Regional and SEQ

    Using William’s map here are my predictions for the regional seats:

    Traditional LNP type seats no change: Gregory, Warrego, Burnett, Southern Downs, Condamine, Scenic rim, Nanango , Toowoomba South. That is 8
    Solid ALP seats: Cook, Cairns, Mulgrave, Mackay, Rochhamptn, Glandstone. There will be a swing to ON but Labor will still win. So that is 6
    Katter or One nation: Hill, Traegar, Hinchinbrook, Callide, Lockyer (5)

    Then the marginals:
    Leaning One nation: Townsville, Gympie
    Leaning ALP: Barron River, Whitsunday, Mirani, Keppel, Maryborough (5) to make ALP 11
    Leaning LNP: Mundingburra, Burdekin, Bundaberg, Toowoomba, Hervey Bay, Noosa (versus G) so (6) to give 14.

    Balance then is A 11, L 14, ON/K 7

    I will post on the other election in SEQ later.

  27. North of the River
    ALP: Morayfield,Bancroft.Kurwongbah, Redcliffe, Moranah, Stafford, Sandgate,Ferny Grove, Cooper Nudgee (10)
    LNP: Ninderry, Maroochydore, Kawana, Everton, Mogill, Clayfield (6)

    Leaning Labor: Pumistone, Pine Rivers,McConnell (3 way) 3
    Leaning LNP: Nicklin, Buderim, Caboolture, Glass House, Aspley, Maiwar (3 way) total 6

    So running total
    ALP 24, LNP 26, ON/K 7

  28. @Elaugaufein Ah, might have been my bad. Went to a prepolling station as I’m working polling day and there was a woman in orange handing out cards with her as #1 and the LNP as #4. I just assumed it was a LNP/GRN/ALP/PHON battle in Maiwar.

  29. @daretotread, living in Maiwar and noticing the campaigning going on I can assure you, surprisingly, the LNP is spending as little money here as possible. Expect a big swing with the battle to be who comes second between GRN/ALP for the 2pp win.

    LNP wont win here. Plus I have a little birdie who told me there are very good reasons for them not going hard at Maiwar… it should solidly be ALP (or maybe GRN)

  30. That’s interesting. The current holder of Maiwar is actually one of the LNPs better public voices , I’d have expected him to get parachuted if they were expecting to lose significantly. He seems a little young to be looking to retire too. Maybe he’s been offered Brandis’s Senate spot / a safe Federal electorate next election ?

  31. Kasey

    I live close to Maiwar ans sort of know what you mean. However Emerson still has quite a big lead so it might be hard. However if there really IS a 5-7% swing against him then yes it will be Labor or the Greens.

    Not sure why Emerson is running dead – he is a Nicholls boy I am told.

    I am also told reliably that the Libs are running dead in South Brisbane. The term used is a “core flute” candidate

  32. They are running VERY dead. I watched the South Brisbane candidates’ forum last night and the guy showed up late, mumbled his way through most questions and clearly didn’t want to be there.

    I only watched the facebook feed, but from what I could tell, the crowd didn’t care he was there either. The few whoops and claps he got seemed ironic.

    The independents that showed up seemed to be more sensible and crowd pleasing than usual, but mostly it was the Deputy Premier show, although she got as many jeers as cheers, other than some enthusiasm from what I assume were a contingent of ALP members.

  33. Back to my list
    South of the River
    ALP ipswich N, Ipswich W, Bulimba, Toohey, Lytton, Algeste,r Caplabah,Bundama,Stretton, Greenslopes, Mt Omany, Woodridge, Inala, Waterford, McAlister, Miller,Springwood, Mansfield (18)
    Lib : Surfers and Broadwater (2)

    Leaning ALP: Jordan (Indie), Logan(ON), South B (Gr) Chatsworth (7) Redlands, Bonny, Gaven
    Leaning Lib: Oodgeroo, Coomera, South Port, Mermaid Beach, Burleigh, (5)

    So perhaps I am being optimistic but i feel it is going to be

    ALP: 49
    LNP: 33
    ON/K: 7

    Now need to check if I have missed a few

  34. OK add Theodore and Mugeerabah to LNP and one to ALP (name escapes me – starts with M and Miles is candidate.

    So A 50, L 35, O/K 7

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