I’ve acquired full results from the ReachTEL polls that Sky News published in very incomplete form on Monday, including a statewide poll and seat polls for Ferny Grove, Whitsunday and Thuringowa. The statewide poll had a sample of 2767 and regional breakdowns (North Queensland, regional Queensland and South-East Queensland), so I thought it might be useful if those results were listed alongside all of the electorate-level polling to have emerged through the campaign, which you can see over the fold.
I won’t attempt to parse the results in detail, except to note how dramatically voting behaviour stands to be shaped by who’s on the ballot paper. Gaven stands out because it had Alex Douglas and Palmer United on 22% between them in 2015, but this time there’s only Labor, LNP and the Greens. One Nation candidates look set to roughly double the vote achieved by Palmer United candidates in 2015, scooping up all their support and gouging the major parties for the remainder, at a ratio of roughly two to one between the LNP and Labor.
|North Qld||ReachTEL||Nov 19||30||24||9||21||-6||-12||+4|
|Thuringowa||ReachTEL||Nov 17-19||34||22||8||23||-7||-12||+4||PUP 11.4% in 2015|
|Thuringowa||Newspoll||Nov 15-16||29||21||6||28||-13||-13||+2||PUP 11.4% in 2015|
|Cairns||Galaxy||Nov 8-9||37||32||7||13||-7.5||-5.5||-1||IND 11% in poll|
|Mundingburra||Galaxy||Nov 8-9||29||30||6||20||-8.5||-10.5||-1||PUP 11.0% in 2015|
|Whitsunday||ReachTEL||Nov 17-19||29||29||7||23||-7||-13||+0.5||PUP 12.7% in 2015|
|Whitsunday||Newspoll||Nov 15-16||32||31||7||19||-4||-11||+0.5||PUP 12.7% in 2015|
|Bundaberg||Newspoll||Nov 15-16||33||37||4||21||-5.5||-5.5||0||PUP 12.3% in 2015|
|Burdekin||Galaxy||Nov 8-9||35||35||4||26||+3.5||0||+1.5||KAP 12.5% in 2015|
|Hervey Bay||Galaxy||Nov 8-9||31||38||4||25||-1||-10||0||PUP 10.9% in 2015|
|Rockhampton||Galaxy||Nov 8-9||33||23||9||21||-20||-7||+3||IND 14% in poll|
|South-East Qld||ReachTEL||Nov 19||36||31||11||15||-3||-11||+1|
|Ferny Grove||ReachTEL||Nov 17-19||40||42||12||-3.5||+1||+1|
|Gaven||Newspoll||Nov 15-16||43||50||7||+14.5||+10||+1||IND 13.1% in 2015|
|Ipswich West||Newspoll||Nov 15-16||45||17||9||29||-2||-18||+3|
|Glass House||Galaxy||Nov 8-9||27||33||16||22||-4.5||-10.5||+2|
|South Brisbane||Galaxy||Nov 8-9||38||29||29||-4||-3||+6.5|
26 comments on “Queensland seat polling round-up”
I think compulsory preference could save the ALP government.
PHON is hurting LNP a lot more than ALP, if ALP get 1/3 of PHON preference ahead of LNP in N.QLD then its a net win., they just need 20% in Regional QLD, and 27% in SE.QLD.
I think compulsory preference could save the ALP government.
Yar bug1, I was wondering about the switch tho to compulsory whether there would be a higher informal because of previous OPV.
I remember previous elections where the Nats tied themselves into ONP with the slogan Vote One National Party, tho ONP now being PHON avoids this.
My guess would be labor 52 seats and 52.4% only based on people wanting to avoid the chaotic alternative of a lnp/onp government. My guesses are as good as my tipping tho.
onp will lose their leader and maybe win 4 to 5 seats
green a good chance at 1 seat
there are about 8 to 10 lnp seats in Brisbane …… gold coast & 2 country seats which have rough margins 2 to 4% and can be won by Labor
5 to 7 seats in the country are shaky for labor how many they lose is anyone’s guess…… but I think they will retain more than half of those
kap to retain their 2 seats
most likely result labor by 47 to 56 seats
You are kidding regarding Labor potentially getting up to 56 seats which would be >36% gain on the current position and so a wipeout for the LNP. At best, Labor will get 44 seats but far more likely in the 40-44 range. Against this, the GRNS will likely take 1 seat in Brisbane (probably, Tran’s) but there may be a 2nd seat whilst the KAP will take at least 2 if not 3+ seats up in the north and outer NW areas.
So, to the low side, that will account for 43-48 seats at best (and the possibility of a wafer thin LGK coalition alliance). Against this, the LNP will likely score 38-44 seats at best for themselves with ONP picking up 2-13 seats depending on many individual circumstances including how the final preferencing occurs.
Accordingly, rather than ONP being the likely kingmakers out of this even though they will average >20% across the state but with a lot of this translating into very near misses on a final preference allocation, the real kingmakers are likely to be the KAP although with their views clashing directly with the GRNS, this could lead to a narrow LNP supported win. Alternatively, it could be a repeat of the recent New Zealand election outcome where Labour was able to put together a coalition with New Zealand First (represented in cabinet) and the Greens (represented in the ministry but not in cabinet).
So, if the LNP gets >40, then it will be an LNP result, but if Labor gets >42 seats, then Labor should be able to put together a narrow majority. Mind you, the fact that Barnaby has join the hustings suggests that internal LNP polling is showing a > than anticipated leakage in votes away to ONP (and to a lesser extent, to KAP). For Labor, they need to hold on in Brisbane where the GRN challenge is on and where some quite accidental (or rogue) results could very well be thrown up on Saturday night>
Most of the work on Saturday night is sorting ballots by primary candidates. And this also shows primary votes for the night.
The preferential count on Saturday nights is provisional based on ECQs best guess of top two ( eg it’s probably Lib / Lab in all 3 inner seats (the exception being maybe Maiwar)) any other votes are counted as whichever of the two they have more favourably. They’ll stop the provisional count on the night if it becomes obvious it’s wrong but you can still get a wrong but not obviously wrong provisional count on the night (generally a result of misguessing preference flows or narrow differences between 1/2 or 2/3 place).
The real count is done over the next couple of weeks and is done in steps where the candidate with the lowest votes are eliminated one by one and their votes thrown by preference until one of the remaining candidates has 50% + 1 and is declared elected.
Oh from previous thread in reply to dtt:
PUP seemed to have gone to PHON or NXT at the last Federal election. Though it’s likely a chunk of that was social libs return to the Liberals being offset by losses of Social Conservative Liberals/Nationals to PHON in addition to the swing of the Conservative Protest Vote.
Re: Maiwar, he’s their Shadow Treasurer and one of their better voices, I agree. So I tend to think that they’re looking to put him high on the Senate ticket for QLD – Federal LNP is lacking in talent. He’d add to that small pool there.
That’s the only reason I can think of the poor “dead in the water” effort being put in by the LNP here in Maiwar. Imho, Maiwar is the seat of the election – if ALP/GRN win it, it will be a bad night for the LNP. Think of it, even if they had the numbers for minority (they’d need to get some indi’s on side…but that’s another story), I don’t think anyone would do deals with the LNP having lost a key figure like that.
@Grant, PHON has taken a hit late in the campaign due to external Federal factors. Don’t expect a statewide 1st preference for them to be as high as 20%. It’ll be 18% on a good night, 15-16% on a bad night for PHON.
Oh, and let us not forget the undecideds… Federal Drag will be a factor for them. Expect them to not vote LNP simply because of how badly Federal LNP is doing (especially QLD ones).
Otherwise, I agree with your analysis. It wont be a blowout for ALP – for sure. I think ALP have the slight edge, and will at worst have to form an informal coalition with the Greens.
That said, a surprise LNP victory wouldn’t really “surprise” me at this point – though it relies heavily on PHON preferences.
if alp has minimal losses and best gains then my 56 is possible…… but I don’t know any more than any one else knows……. Maiwar is the most likely green win……polling suggests a very high green vote there…….can any one nominate for certain which party will lose which seat and to whom. ? what will the gold coast do?
@Mick, what I can tell you about the Gold Coast isn’t scientific, but it is something interesting to keep in mind. The last time Labor campaigned hard on Stability, they did well in Gold Coast. Otherwise, the LNP are very, very competitive there.
And the ALP are campaigning on stability again this time. Maybe those are the magic words for the Gold Coast 😛
Edit: Oh, as someone working the election I can tell you that we need to, by law, tell every voter to number every box. So the higher informal rate due to the change might not be as large as you think (postals aside).
I’m not seeing a “clean” LNP win on the cards. PHON will take enough seats they can only win with a Coalition of some form maybe KAP and Independents if small enough PHON gains.
@Elaugaufein The Independents have already shown their hand in who they will support. PHON wont have the primary, in my opinion, to take more than 2-3 seats. KAP…now they’re the wildcard. You’d usually think they’d go with the LNP, but with the Federal LNP refusing the banking royal commission and Katter himself being fond of Unions… KAP could go either way in the case of a hung parliament.
But, again, I agree with your analysis. There isn’t, in my opinion, any route to a majority LNP Government based on everything we have at our disposal.
Does anyone know if, and where, to access the election costings documents of the LNP and ALP?
Wombat – no, but here is a summary… http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-23/queensland-election-costings-labor-costings-aim-curb-state-debt/9185480
Just got Reachteled on both my land line and my mobile re the Qld election. Put in a double effort for Labor.
Reachtel seem to do that quite often to me.
@ajm was it the mandatory Reachtel pollee preferences system?
Just first preference but don’t know what would have happened if I said Green or PHON.
Also a choice of 6 issues
@ajm That is so odd. Why would they change tact now, a day before the election? How are they going to distribute preferences? What numbers are they going to use? Essentials? Galaxy/Newspoll’s? Something else?
I have no idea what track record Professor John Wanna has with predictions, but some may enjoy racing this anyway.
One Nation to win six seats in state’s regions and Greens one: expert… https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland-election-2017/one-nation-to-win-six-seats-in-state-s-regions-and-greens-one-expert-20171122-p4yx5w.html
He’s not a psephologist. More a generalist when it comes to politics. He’s picking numbers out of thin air. He’s good at what he does, but predict elections he does not (at least that’s what it seems from his bio and publications).
Thanks Fargo. I’d seen them, but there is detail I’d love to see. Particularly NLP…..
Yeah, with the AEC people saying that by law, it’s likely that people will number candidates they don’t recognise more or less randomly either at the bottom or just above their disfavored party / parties. So I’m expecting some weird preference flows relative to HTVs.
read the link re prof Wanna’s predictions……….he is not as certain as the headline summary.. suggests …… if is very hard to tell…. eg he picks Logan as ONP win. We just don’t know……..
Queensland Election 2017: Galaxy poll predicts win for Labor and Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk
Steven Wardill, The Courier-Mail
in 2 hours
ANNASTACIA Palaszczuk is on the cusp of leading Labor to a historic election victory on Saturday, despite a deep chasm in voter sentiment that has divided Queensland.
An exclusive Courier-Mail/Galaxy poll has revealed the Queensland Premier is poised to pick up enough southeast corner seats to replace losses in the regions where voters have turned against both major parties.
Labor could snare the 47 electorates necessary to form a majority in the 93-seat State Parliament, with a win furthering Ms Palaszczuk’s record as the most successful female major party leader in Australian political history.
However, the result hinges heavily on the unpredictable preference flows from One Nation supporters after Labor controversially ditched Queensland’s “Just Vote 1” laws.
The poll of more than 1500 Queenslanders conducted this week found Labor leads the LNP 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, the same result that was recorded in the days after Ms Palaszczuk pulled the trigger on the early election.
One Nation’s vote has sunk from 18 per cent to 12 per cent statewide after Pauline Hanson’s gaffe-prone campaign that was repeatedly interrupted, where the party only managed to field candidates in 61 electorates.
This has allowed Labor’s vote to inch forward over the past four weeks from 35 per cent to 37 per cent, almost mirroring the support Ms Palaszczuk received at her extraordinary 2015 victory over Campbell Newman.
The LNP has also benefited, increasing from 32 per cent to 35 per cent, although this figure is well below the 41.3 per cent achieved three years ago.
However, the more telling results are revealed in the divergence in voting patterns between the southeast corner, where there are 62 electorates, compared to the rest of the state, which has 31 seats.