Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research polls on early election prospects and the next stage of same-sex marriage, and records little change on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research result appears to have Labor leading 54-46 (it says 52% to 46% in the report, but it also says there is no change). GhostWhoVotes was somehow able to relate that the primary votes were Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (steady). The poll finds 47% saying the government should run its full term, compared with 37% who favour an early election. Thirty-six per cent said they expected Labor to win the next election, compared with 20% for the Coalition, and 18% for a hung parliament.

The poll also found 63% of the view that marriage celebrants should be allowed to refuse to officiate at same-sex weddings, with 27% opposed. Other related issues were finely balanced: 48% opposed the notion that businesses should have the right to refuse service to gay weddings, while 43% supported it; 42% supported parents being able to remove their children from classes that did not reflect a traditional view of marriage, while 44% were opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,860 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Well, this is an interesting tidbit of information about the Banking Commission of Inquiry being touted by Barry O’Sullivan in exchange for Conservative carve outs of the SS Marriage Bill:

    ‘Those two banks were joined by the Commonwealth Bank and NAB in officially supporting the Yes vote. They are clearly an equal opportunity oligopoly. Anyhow, to see that goodwill with 61 per cent of the population turn to ash in their mouths must feel more than a little confronting. But it wasn’t just the big banks but also regionals like Bank of Queensland who backed the Yes campaign. So too did large superannuation outfits like AustralianSuper and Hesta. They must now be wondering what they did to earn a commission of inquiry that will include industry super funds alongside the banks.’

    Still, Turnbull looks determined to avoid the inquiry and will nix a week of Parliament to achieve it if necessary. It’s all starting to feel more like a stormcloud coloured No than rainbow tinted Yes.

    Bastards will not leave Industry Super Funds alone!

  2. Opening the batting…

    About 70 per cent of Greens voters in inner Melbourne are rich, dislike unions and think suburban people are backwards, ­racist and bigoted, Labor has concluded based on its own research.

    A six-month survey of Melbourne Greens voters has encouraged the Victorian Labor Party to give up on campaigning to most of them, arguing they do not share Labor values and are closer to the Liberals.

    Labor has dubbed them “Teal Greens”, with teal being a colour blend of green and blue. The party has decided to target the 30 per cent “Red Greens” in Melbourne’s inner city who are typically university students or Millennials starting their careers.

    “Red Greens” are usually renters who are more likely to come from Labor families, while “Teal Greens” own expensive inner-city homes and have parents who vote Liberal.

    The qualitative research surveyed more than 50 Greens voters in inner suburbs such as Fitzroy, Brunswick and Clifton Hill, from January to June this year. Party sources said the findings showed the biggest concern of many Greens voters was the ­notion of living in the outer suburbs that contributed to their ­interest in local planning laws.

    “Teal Greens” are usually highly paid professionals in two-wage households, are aged in their 30s and 40s and “look down on” ­people in suburbs, thinking they hold Australia back from being “tolerant” and “just”.

  3. Ides of March,
    You better believe they are. I am deeply embedded in a coastal community that is just like the one sprocket described.

  4. Mrning again. On the Reachtell questions, interesting that 63% think it ok for ministers to refuse to serve a gay wedding but only 43% think it ok for a business to do the same thing. So do we hold profit making businesses to a higher moral standard than churches? I think we do.

    Also, I wonder how the next poll after the parliamentary sitting delay will look? Worse for Malcolm I expect.

  5. Scott Morison’s lie de jour is that more than 60% of Australians want religious freedom protected.

    Really?? Only 1/4 of Australians regularly practice any religion, and over 30% say they have no religion.

    Besides, religious freedom is already guarsnteed in law.

  6. Some religions are more equal than others —

    ‘When the Australian Federation of Islamic Councils made a submission to a government inquiry suggesting that Muslims should enjoy “legal pluralism” by allowing moderate forms of Sharia in divorce and family laws, all hell broke loose.’

    ‘..But now we see the anti-marriage equality campaigners asking for just that – they want special laws to accommodate their religious beliefs.’

  7. On the Greens achievements (or otherwise) after ten years in Victorian Parliament –

    ‘a government tally of how the parties have voted since Andrews came to office reveals that Greens have sided with the Coalition on 38 out of 78 substantive motions and votes in the upper house – almost half. In contrast, Green MPs have voted with Labor on 26 out of 78 occasions – or a third of the time.’

    ‘Whereas Sex Party MP Fiona Patten skilfully negotiates to achieve her objectives – abortion clinic buffer zones; the regulation of Uber among them – the Greens take a more hostile approach, which ends up being counterproductive (not that Labor gives them much airtime, mind you). As one minister unkindly put it last week: “I reckon the cross-benchers have pulled off more in two years than the Greens have in 10. The crossies are more willing to work with us; the Greens are more like commentators.”

    Article ends with the same points about ‘gentrification’ of the inner suburbs made above.

  8. On religion, I think it’s worth repeating my earlier post.

    “When You’re Accustomed to Privilege, Equality Feels Like Oppression”

  9. Cat

    50 voters is not representative full stop. For instance, if we take areas of Inner Melbourne where the Greens poll high primaries, the number of people in those electorates goes up way up meaning the sample number that small will contain a large error margin.

    For instance Adam Bandt got 41,000 primaries votes in Melbourne last time round. 50 voters out 41,000 gives 0.121 of those voters.

  10. I wonder if the right will consider including a ‘burqa ban’ in a religious freedom bill.
    After all it is ‘religious’. Alternatively they could affirm the right to wear religious clothing, after-all ‘freedom’!

  11. The Daily Telegraph has the story about the ‘mystery MP’ threatening to quit the Government next month. They also have a story “Turnbull targets battlers as Canberra descends into chaos”. No photoshopping, however. The paper edition prominently proclaims “Mal’s vow to cut taxes”.

  12. Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account
    Replying to @MinhKular @YaThinkN and 2 others

    Any income tax cuts will be funded by borrowed money, at least until 2020-21…

  13. Ides of March,
    It may not be a statistically significant sample but it sure is representative. I’m also thinking that Labor did in-depth interviews and didn’t just ask a few quick questions, so that they could truly understand the minds of these voters.

  14. Its neither statistically or representatively valid. Small sample sizes arent.

    Im not necessarily disagreeing with all their findings, just making the point the sample size is too small.

  15. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I’m a bit late out of the blocks today!

    Here’s all the detail about the latest Essential poll.
    Mark Kenny wonders whether the SSM survey outcome might signal the beginning of a decline that would see off the influence of Abbott and C. We can only hope!
    James Massola writes about the MPs who think Turnbull is running scared.
    Tony Wright is more direct. It’s all about survival he says.
    Delaying the return of parliament by a week only emphasises the chaos of trying to hold together a minority government says Jennifer Hewett. Google.
    Phil Coorey rites that a banking Royal Commission is gathering speed as Turnbull shuts down parliament. Google.
    Peter Hartcher has come out and said US tax cuts prove Donald Trump is nothing but a fake populist.
    Turnbull has flagged tax cuts for millions of Australians in the lead-up to the next federal budget, or sooner if an election is called early next year. Peter Martin comments on Turnbull’s speech to the BCA yesterday.
    Richard Marles will say in a speech today that the Pacific is “the biggest blind spot in Australia’s national security policy” and warn that if more attention is not paid to the near region, these small countries may seek partnerships elsewhere – an apparent veiled reference to rising Chinese influence.
    Greg Jericho says the recent state economy figures provide a good picture of what is going on across the country. And they confirm a pressing problem. They also confirm that household incomes across the nation fell in real terms.

  16. Section 2 . . .

    Parents could be allowed to remove their children from classes where non-traditional marriage is taught, under a major addition to the same sex marriage bill being considered by George Brandis.
    Eryk Bagshaw writes that same-sex couples will be able to use marriage certificates to apply for visas in a move that advocates say will trigger a wave of LGTBIQ applications for Australian residency.
    Fahad Ali says that Muslim leadership let community down on same-sex vote.
    George Williams has a very good contribution here in which he looks at how religion is handled in Australian law. It provides a good background to the discussions going on at the moment.
    Andrew Hastie’s office has been deluged by abusive calls from Yes supporters over his SSM stance. Google.
    An excellent auricle from Jenna Price about marriage in which she says Abbott is totally wrong about de facto relationships.
    Human Headline Salim Mehajer has promised not to use social media site Instagram among a string of bail conditions after he was charged with dangerous driving and breaching an apprehended violence order by “stalking” his estranged wife.
    Why is Donald Trump launching a withering attack on non-profits?
    Jacqui Lambie says she has been approached by MPs admitting they are set to be embroiled in the citizenship fiasco. Google.
    The sudden collapse of talks to form a coalition government has left German politics in turmoil, with Angela Merkel dealing with one of the worst crises of her 12-year chancellorship.

  17. Section 3 . . .

    What is it with right wing MPs claiming endorsements they simply don’t have? Managing editor Dave Donovan looks at three recent examples — Andrew Hastie, Rob Molhoek and Michael Hart.,10948
    Elizabeth Knight says there are many red flags to provide warnings when buying shares but one that even the most unsophisticated investor can watch out for is a company’s directors or senior management selling shares. They are the real insiders.
    Another step on the way to jail for Cathy Jackson?
    Peter Wicks on how Jackson sucked Abbott and his mates in way back in 2012.
    Jelena Dokic’s story of abuse shows links between elite sport and child labour.
    Susie O’Brien writes that it’s time to stop acting as if every father is a potential rapist, paedophile or abuser. Normal dads looking after their own kids are not perverts, and they shouldn’t be treated like them. Google.
    It was Jacqui Lambie unplugged on ABC’s Q&A on Monday, with the former Tasmanian senator praised for her raw, relentless passion. Free from any constraints after last week being found to be ineligible to sit in Parliament due to dual citizenship, she did not disappoint by offering a typically feisty performance and a string of colourful outbursts.
    How can we keep chucking out MPs with dual citizenship when our head of state isn’t even a citizen at all asks Dr Glenn Davies.,10946
    A landmark study has found wage theft is endemic across Australia with a quarter of international students and a third of backpackers earning $12 or less per hour, around half the legal minimum wage. It is a national disgrace that this is still going on to such an extent. Where are you Ms Banshee?
    The family of Australian woman Justine Damond, who was shot and killed outside her home by a Minneapolis police officer in July, are still waiting to hear whether charges will be laid and justice delivered for her death.

  18. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    A superb contribution from David Rowe.

    David Pope gives us a classic about Turnbull scampering away from a parliamentary sitting.
    Cathy Wilcox gives Zimbabwe a lesson.

    Mark David id suggesting the road ahead for the SSM legislation may be a little difficult for Turnbull.

    Peter Broelman welcomes Malcolm Young “upstairs”.

    There’s no mistaking who pays Paul Zanetti’s wages!

    Two good ones from Matt Golding.

    Pat Clement goes to Zimbabwe.
    Alan Moir loves cartooning Abbott!

    Matt Davidson and another wrecking ball.

  19. Ides

    It’s a focus group. All political parties use them, and they do so for a purpose. If the findings of focus groups weren’t useful or informative, then they wouldn’t exist.

  20. There was a hint that the MP might especially disapprove of Pyne but that really doesn’t narrow the field.

    Expands it out to about 75 Coalition MHRs. Maybe 76 if Pyne has any self awareness.

  21. Well does Pyne actually carry any numbers in caucus?

    Id imagine the conservatives used to line up behind Bernardi and Birmingham had the moderates.

  22. Phoenix

    For once you may have hit a nerve re Kushner but you do of course understand that it is not Russia pulling his strings.

    Go Kushner for foreign influence and control by all means but it is a can of worms that once opened may bring down the whole US political system.

    Kushner is reliant on Israel and does their bidding dutifully. He has been up to his ears too in the recent Saudi “coup.” Given his father’s “money problems” it is probable that Kushner got his first funding from Israe

    Trouble is that there will be found to be lots of Democratsnin the same position.

  23. I don’t think Zanetti has ever met a union member if we go by his depiction of workers as some kind of overall-wearing stereotype from a Bugs Bunny cartoon.

  24. Leave Zanetti alone. Like Latham, or M’arn, or any other gormless fucker who’s taken the money he’s just aiming for the KPI’s set for him by the boss.

  25. Pyne “my twitter was hacked I would never look at gay porn” is probably tolerated not hated by the openly gay segment of the coalition and even more so by the many in the closet.

    Mind you those in the closet may hate him for his obvious set up of Slipper re Ashby.

  26. One thing Lambie said last night did resonate: the nation is rudderless.

    No one’s doing anything while Turnbull tries to untie the knot he’s tangled himself in.

    His self-indulgence is affecting the nation more and more directly.

  27. Article on Morrison’s appearance on 7:30 tonight.

    In an interview on ABC’s 7.30, Morrison said same-sex marriage was a “done deal” and a “finished debate” but parliament now needed to legislate a bill for 100% of Australians, not just the 61.6% who voted for marriage equality.

    I’m sorry Scott but I, like the majority of people who cast their ballot for ME were not asking for ourselves but for others to be treated equally.

    The issue that was decided was to allow access for the LGBTI community to the civil institution of marriage.

    Nothing more, nothing less.

    The Marriage Act already allows Religions to pick and choose what type of marriages they participate in, this would be the same for SSM.

    While we recognise that many Religions don’t fully adhere to our Society’s values and standards by allowing some exemptions from anti-discrimination laws, that is only within their buildings and institutions.

    It does not flow into our general Society and it certainly does not flow into how their followers behave in the general Society.

    Oh sh!t, I just realised, I don’t get a prize!!!

    And neither do the “NO” voters who are not LGBTI.

    Boo f@#king hoo!!!!

    It was never about us!

  28. Barney

    Remarkable, isn’t it?

    Win an election with 50.1% of the vote and it’s all “I have a mandate…” “My way or the highway…” “…the will of the people…”

    Lose one with a vote of 39% and we’ve got to consider their wishes….

  29. Good Morning

    ZuveleLeschen: Win an election with 50.1% of the vote and it’s all about mandates. Win one with 61% & we’ve got to cater to the losers. #auspol

  30. JB_AU: Remember how when Howard was in the dying days of his Government and thought he could bribe us with middle class tax cuts? Didn’t work then, won’t work now.

  31. Ides of March @ #27 Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 – 8:06 am

    Well does Pyne actually carry any numbers in caucus?

    Id imagine the conservatives used to line up behind Bernardi and Birmingham had the moderates.

    Christopher Pyne is where he is because he is a relentless, and sometimes devastatingly effective, campaigner for the Coalition.

    We may think of him as a rube, but you’ve just got to think back to the Slipper imbroglio and who it was that likely spun the web that Peter Slipper was entangled in. The reports of James Ashby being in Pyne’s office having a few drinks with him were not some coincidence. They were plotting the downfall of the Speaker.

    Which also indicates Pyne’s other great talent-devising plausible deniability that is water-tight. Plus he must have the most devoted staff, as I cannot remember anything of substance emanating by way of leaks from his office, and I have been told things by Labor staffers that are common knowledge in Parliament House. This also would, of course, extend to the Canberra Press Gallery, so he must have them on a drip that doesn’t leak as well.

    Not to mention the stunts with the cut-out of Kevin Rudd being brought into Question Time, the running ‘like a gazelle’ from the ‘Tainted Vote’ of Craig Thomson-devastatingly-effective political stunts. That Abbott aided and abetted with his overbearing and intimidating theatrics.

    In other words, people in his own party may not like Christopher Pyne, but they do respect him.

  32. zoomster @ #34 Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 – 4:22 am


    Remarkable, isn’t it?

    Win an election with 50.1% of the vote and it’s all “I have a mandate…” “My way or the highway…” “…the will of the people…”

    Lose one with a vote of 39% and we’ve got to consider their wishes….

    Yep, I think the quote posted by lizzie sums part of this well.

    “When You’re Accustomed to Privilege, Equality Feels Like Oppression”

  33. GetUp: Last night GetUp members made more than 12,000 Queensland election calls to block the billion dollar bailout to Adani.

  34. Morning all


    Teal Greens are a very apt description!! I like it.

    As I posited after Northcote By election, the demographics of the electorate has changed dramatically over past few years, and reason why the seat fell.

  35. Promises of tax cuts, Bishop on both breaky shows today , pollies to disclose citizenship (Mal should now how many more by now), delay to sitting week, spuking the Snowy – to me this squeels election real soon. February??

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