Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research polls on early election prospects and the next stage of same-sex marriage, and records little change on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research result appears to have Labor leading 54-46 (it says 52% to 46% in the report, but it also says there is no change). GhostWhoVotes was somehow able to relate that the primary votes were Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (steady). The poll finds 47% saying the government should run its full term, compared with 37% who favour an early election. Thirty-six per cent said they expected Labor to win the next election, compared with 20% for the Coalition, and 18% for a hung parliament.

The poll also found 63% of the view that marriage celebrants should be allowed to refuse to officiate at same-sex weddings, with 27% opposed. Other related issues were finely balanced: 48% opposed the notion that businesses should have the right to refuse service to gay weddings, while 43% supported it; 42% supported parents being able to remove their children from classes that did not reflect a traditional view of marriage, while 44% were opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,860 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Guytaur

    Absolutely.

    The trouble with Labor’s “hate greens” strategy is that those Teal voters will NOT go Labor. They will go Sex Party, Democrat, Animal Justice or whatever rather than Labor first. The best that Labor can hope for is a second preference. If Greens did not stand they would probably go LNP.

    The trouble with targeting the Red greens, is that these by and large are the activists and the hardest to turn. Moreover as Labor moves to the centre on issues such as immigration they will be harder to win over.

    There could of course be a split in the Greens given the divergence between the teal and red wings, but probably not.

  2. Bushfire Bill (AnonBlock)
    Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 – 8:12 am
    Comment #32

    “One thing Lambie said last night did resonate: the nation is rudderless.”
    And has been since K Rudd lost office September 2013.
    🙂

  3. sprocket @ comment 2

    re’ Teal Greens/Red Greens

    I assume this was a bit of work done to consolidate/encapsulate the outcomes of many polls like NewsPoll / Essential and also of the experiences and opinions of Labor people doing door knocking, handing out HTV’s, etc in the targeted inner city electorates in Sydney and Melbourne (Brisbane?).

  4. Rather than Teal Greens it should be Cyan Greens . Cyan ,half way between blue and green and usefully associated with Cyanobacteria aka blue green algae. Inner city blue-green algal blooms are certainly proving toxic for Labor.

  5. David Morrison is a real NASA scientist who studies real planets and makes real discoveries about the real universe.

    Unfortunately for him, Morrison’s duties also include debunking perennial Internet theories that a fake planet is about to destroy the Earth, which was supposed to happen in 2003, then 2012, then Sept. 23, then October — and now the world is supposed to end again some time Sunday.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/11/18/please-stop-annoying-this-nasa-scientist-with-your-ridiculous-planet-x-doomsday-theories/?hpid=hp_no-name_hp-in-the-news%3Apage%2Fin-the-news&utm_term=.254782258951

    Another doomsday prediction that failed to eventuate.

  6. I’d probably be a red green if I didn’t understand how incompetent and ineffectual the greens are.

    I plan on campaigning for whatever Labor candidate is running against Adam Bandt in my local electorate next year.

    Most of these red greens are democratic socialists and big supporters of Saunders / Corbyn and don’t believe the Labor party is sufficiently to the left policy-wise. The challenge is going to be convincing these people that removing negative gearing, restoring penalty rates and so on can only be acheived under a Labor government.

  7. I assume that Di Natale is not one of the red greens. He seems to have done nicely out of neo-Liberal econonomics.

    After all, his block in a highly gentrified innerburb probably cost around $1 million and the rebuild is costing him $800,000. He will benefit immensely from the capital gains treatment of the family home. He may be into a bit of negative gearing. Who knows?

    Those au pair savings are definitely coming in handy for him right now.

    Plus, his innerburb are very well insulated against the outerburb riffraff.

    Real environmentalists, the ones who delivered the Wet Tropics, the Tasmanian Wilderness outcomes, Fraser Island, and protection of the Reef from oil drilling must be wondering about the Greens Party.

    Because the Greens Party is not delivering environmental outcomes.

  8. This is why Barry O’Sullivan wants to target Industry Super Funds in his ‘Banking’ Inquiry:

    ‘Not-for-profit superannuation takes 25 of the top 30 return positions’

    Not-for-profit superannuation funds have dramatically outperformed for-profit retail funds, taking the first 23 of the top 30 positions over 10 years to September 2017, according to new research from SuperRatings…

    SuperRatings CEO Kirby Rappell said there were a couple of reasons explaining the not-for-profit outperformance.

    “There is fee drag caused by higher fees in the retail sector and a difference in asset allocation that sees not-for-profits with bigger exposures to alternative assets,” he said.

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/superannuation/2017/11/20/not-for-profit-super-top-30/

  9. DiNatale is an environmentalist, he has solar panels, a small water tank planned for his new digs, and he has his own coffee cup for takeaways.
    All the green credentials required to be a teal green

  10. It’s really not that complicated.

    Poor, no conscience -> Nats or ON.
    Poor, half a conscience -> Labor
    Poor, a conscience -> Red Greens.

    Rich, no conscience -> Liberals
    Rich, half a conscience -> Swing voters between Lib and Labor
    Rich, a conscience -> Teal Greens

    The only thing teal greens have to do with Liberal voters is that they are well off and educated.

  11. “DiNatale is an environmentalist, he has solar panels, a small water tank planned for his new digs, and he has his own coffee cup for takeaways.

    All the green credentials required to be a teal green”

    I’d probably have solar panels to if I could afford to buy them or a house to put them on.

  12. Google: Coalition MP threatens to quit

    The Australian reporting a Coalition MP threatening to quit unless Turnbull replaced with a conservative.

  13. Yes Barney

    Perfectly logical. Sorry you find it hard.

    They are two quite separate groups with different values and agendas.

    Honestly matey please do not call me out on logic, especially when you cannot follow it.

    Firstly the teal green voters are middle class and wealthy. They are the group that Ratsak et al hate so much. They see them as liberal light. In terms of VOTERS, they may well have a valid point. (But then many a racist homophobe once voted Labor, but it did not reflect the ALP.)

    The teal voters are NOT natural Labor voters. They are by and large anti union and certainly anti suburbs. They will vote for noice middle class ALP candidates, but not for obviously “worker” candidates. They will be turned off by any sense of double dealing or union thuggery or ALP factional in-fighting. They liked Rudd but not Gillard because he spoke well, was educated and not obviously a factional union player. I suspect but cannot be sure on this that by and large they will be protestant not Catholic ie state schools or independent, but not your local Christian Bros.

    The red- greens are very often the old left of the ALP, and are ideologically committed. They really care about genuine Labor values but focus more on the social issues – immigration, human rights, foreign relations and green issues. Now this group will probably always give second preference to Labor – they will not vote Lib BUY they will be the angriest about moves to the middle.

    Now is that logical enough for you BigD

  14. Bleurgh

    A green policy Labor wants is community solar hubs. So renters and people who can’t afford the cost of installing solar panels is met in other ways.

    Given power prices thats a huge vote winner. Taking power bills down close to zero means that money goes into the voters pocket.

    Of course any sensible person that can afford the capital cost is doing it.
    Without support for the poor the renewables policy we have now is increasing inequality in net income

  15. If a coalition MHR quits the party, it will be embarrassing for Turnbull but it won’t bring the government down. That’s because he or she will vote with the government on virtually everything anyway. It’s just a stunt.

  16. “Does the timing of Malcolm’s “tax-cuts” announcement suggest that he thinks there may be an election rather soon?”

    Yup i reckon. 🙂

    Sad for them that they are deploying “fist full of dollars” so far out from the campaign proper.

    suspect they are fwarked.

  17. Come on, guys, why are we all bothering with the interminable Labor/Greens squabbling when we can just sit back and enjoy the show of the Turnbull government disintegrating before our eyes.

  18. billshortenmp: Hanging out with @KKeneally on a ripper Sydney morning, talking to voters in Bennelong. pic.twitter.com/FrnoSWyhsz

    Interesting there is no LNP signage at the train station I can see

  19. This is from the Royal Commissions Act 1902.

    Does it mean the GG can ignore the parliament as he sees fit? How bad would it look if the parliament vote to enact a RC and the GG said “no thanks”.

    1A Power to issue Royal Commission
    Without in any way prejudicing, limiting, or derogating from the power of the King, or of the Governor‑General, to make or authorise any inquiry, or to issue any commission to make any inquiry, it is hereby enacted and declared that the Governor‑General may, by Letters Patent in the name of the King, issue such commissions, directed to such person or persons, as he or she thinks fit, requiring or authorising him or her or them or any of them to make inquiry into and report upon any matter specified in the Letters Patent, and which relates to or is connected with the peace, order, and good government of the Commonwealth, or any public purpose or any power of the Commonwealth

    https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2016C00603

  20. daretotread says:
    Tuesday, November 21, 2017 at 8:47 am
    Guytaur

    Absolutely.

    …..those Teal voters will NOT go Labor.
    …..the Red greens….. the hardest to turn.

    Quite right. The conclusion to be drawn by Labor is the Gs are best left to their own devices and, as far as possible, ignored.

  21. Moksha,

    That’s why the proposal is for a Parliamentary Inquiry, not an RC. It’s the same as an RC except it’s set and reports to the Parliament not the executive. The GG probably wouldn’t even be officially notified, let alone be required to approve.

  22. Voice Endeavour says:
    Tuesday, November 21, 2017 at 9:17 am

    The only thing teal greens have to do with Liberal voters is that they are well off and educated.

    They share a phobia. They are Labor-negative.

  23. Whether or not the unnamed MP actually quits, the tension generated by the story will not be good for Turnbull’s blood pressure. As for Bishop, I don’t think she actually cares much one way or the other. After all, she realises the LNP is doomed at the next election and will be planning for life post-politics in the much more exciting world of high fashion and cocktail parties.

    JULIE Bishop has addressed reports an unnamed Coalition MP is threatening to quit next month in a move which could cost Malcolm Turnbull government.

    The Foreign Affairs Minister has urged her colleague, who spoke anonymously to News Corp Australia columnist Andrew Bolt about his decision to quit, to speak to her or the Prime Minister first…

    The MP is threatening to quit when Parliament resumes in the first week of December unless Malcolm Turnbull is replaced as Prime Minister by a conservative member of the Coalition.

    He specifically ruled out backing Ms Bishop to replace Mr Turnbull as Prime Minister.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/mp-threatening-to-quit-coalition-julie-bishop-moves-to-head-off-new-crisis/news-story/9eb31c7c09549f15d7554c4a9e4a47a6

  24. Imacca- I reckon Malkie knows that when everybody puts their cards on the table, he will have no choice but to call a new election. He’s just trying to get past Christmas before he is forced to do that.

  25. Moksha
    This is from the Royal Commissions Act 1902.
    Does it mean the GG can ignore the parliament as he sees fit? How bad would it look if the parliament vote to enact a RC and the GG said “no thanks”.

    From what I’ve read the big stumbling block to a RC is the funding for it. Parliament may vote for a RC but needs the govt/ cabinet to approve funding for it. tones was hesitant on extra funding for the RC into child abuse which would have effectively terminated the RC at that point with only findings to date.

    I think the other option is a commission of inquiry, maybe like a parliamentary inquiry, but not sure of its powers to compel people to come before it.

  26. Cat

    Again don’t fall for briefly’s view. Greens work with unions.

    The exception being about Gonski with the Education Union.

    Thats why Rhiannon was right and why I think Di Natale is not good for the Greens.

    They need to change leaders and to win in NSW lose Rhiannon.

    Thats way they can be a third party that gets the voters that will never vote Labor because Labor but will vote for sensible progressive policies.

  27. “He’s just trying to get past Christmas before he is forced to do that.”

    I think much depends on #LibLeadershit, but couldn’t disagree with your assessment.

  28. Read somewhere yesterday ( can’t remember where ) that there could be up to 25 Coalition MP’s who fail S44. Not sure if true. Could be pure BS. But makes for a great conspiracy theory….lol

  29. dtt,

    Once again you miss the point.

    The lack of logic was not in your argument but in your use of language.

    Something that is possible can not be harder to do than something that is not.

    This is another feature of your writing that can make it difficult to read and comprehend. 🙂

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