Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research polls on early election prospects and the next stage of same-sex marriage, and records little change on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research result appears to have Labor leading 54-46 (it says 52% to 46% in the report, but it also says there is no change). GhostWhoVotes was somehow able to relate that the primary votes were Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (steady). The poll finds 47% saying the government should run its full term, compared with 37% who favour an early election. Thirty-six per cent said they expected Labor to win the next election, compared with 20% for the Coalition, and 18% for a hung parliament.

The poll also found 63% of the view that marriage celebrants should be allowed to refuse to officiate at same-sex weddings, with 27% opposed. Other related issues were finely balanced: 48% opposed the notion that businesses should have the right to refuse service to gay weddings, while 43% supported it; 42% supported parents being able to remove their children from classes that did not reflect a traditional view of marriage, while 44% were opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,860 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Not to mention the demo of the Sydney exhibition centre which was a Sulman Award-winning building by Philip Cox. It’s replacement, at some enormous cost, is one of the most aggressive pieces of bling urban design I recall seeing.

  2. http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-23/worlds-most-powerful-lithium-ion-battery-finished-in-sa/9183868?pfmredir=sm&sf174087552=1

    “Tesla has completed construction of its giant lithium ion battery, described as the world’s most powerful, with testing expected in coming days ahead of a December 1 operation deadline.”

    “The array of Tesla Powerpack batteries has been installed alongside French company Neoen’s Hornsdale windfarm near Jamestown in South Australia’s Mid North region.”

  3. mikehilliard that building is hideous and is out of all proportion to the site. A bigger convention centre should have been built at Barangaroo instead of Packers pecker.

  5. A cheering thought.

    Now I just need a study to confirm the positive health effects of Rum and my mornings and evenings will count as workouts!

    I don’t need a study to confirm the benefits of bacon.

  6. Ides of March

    Just because a building won the Sulman, doesnt actually mean its all that great. A few crap examples around.

    You could say that about any art, architecture, literature or film award. Whats your point?

  8. MH

    I dont think the stadium’s design is necessarily that amazing.

    However Phillip Cox is a good architect and rebuilding the stadium is an absolute waste of money.

  9. Cormann doing his bit to try and bolster morale in the LNP camp:

    “Labor ‘revisiting failed socialist roots’
    GEOFF CHAMBERS
    Mathias Cormann has launched an assault on Bill Shorten’s economic credentials, calling him anti-jobs and anti-growth.”

    However Cormann has more immediate problems from the “socialists” on his own side:

    “Bank inquiry bill set for Senate
    Senator Barry O’Sullivan is set to introduce a bill to establish a wideranging inquiry with powers similar to a royal commission.”

    (Oz headlines at present)

  10. Steve Price and Bolt are live interviewing Pauline Hanson on 2GB.

    Steve Price has just volunteered to man a booth in the Toowoomba electorate.

    Sheesh.

  12. Ides

    I was talking about the Darling Harbour exhibition centre not the stadium.

    From memory Cox said the masts & cables referenced the masts and rigging of the old sailing ships, the harbours original function however. Nice idea but I always considered it a bit of a pastiche of the Pompidou in Paris. That aside I still think it was an iconic building for that late 80’s exuberant period and a more in depth discussion should have been held before bulldozing it.

  14. Mathias Cormann has launched an assault on Bill Shorten’s economic credentials, calling him anti-jobs and anti-growth.

    yep, that dastardly Bill Shorten and his mates in the Unions! How dare they work to protect Streets Ice Cream employees pay and conditions!

    Stuff like that might actually see real growth in the Economy. How dare he!

  15. Convention Centre was certainly a good piece of work. Certainly more to it than the replacement.

    And how can you knock a Sulman winner anyhow. Parklea Prison is tops!

  17. IOM,

    That’s not correct. It was the Library that won the Sulman and it was 66.

    Col Madigan was a sensational architect (High Court and National Gallery), plus the masterplan included landscaping by Bruce Mackenzie (as any decent project at that time did).

    A lot of the egalitarian ethic that informed works like it and other later works such as Ku ring gai CAE might not have aged as well as one might hope, but they were nevertheless incredibly important and inspirational works for their time.

  18. Aqualung @ #1766 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 6:46 pm

    It’s a conundrum Rex. Sydneysiders have fallen out of love with live sport for some reason. When the SFS was built there were whinges that it wasn’t big enough. As it turns out it was the correct decision.

    With decent beaches and a warmer climate for longer in the year, there is much more by way of outdoor alternatives to watching live sport in Sydney compared to say Melbourne.

  19. A little long unfortunately but anyway …

    Zimbabwe – Constitutionally legal succession to presidency

    The Zimbabwe Constitution s. 101 reads –

    Sucession in event of death, resignation or incapacity of President or Vice-President

    (1) If the President dies, resigns or is removed from office —
    (a) the first Vice-President assumes office as President until the expiry of the former President’s term of office;”
    …
    (2) If the first Vice- President dies, resigns or is removed from office —
    (a) the second Vice-President assumes office as President until the expiry of the former President’s term of office;

    Mnanagagwa was removed as ‘first Vice-President’ by Mugabe. That is the reason he left Zimbabwe in a hurry.

    Under the constitution therefore the second Vice President would appear to be the legal sucessor to the President unless Mugabe re-appointed Mnanagagwa as ‘first Vice-President’.

    Mugabe doesn’t appear to have done that. His letter of resignation as read in Parliament —

    Notice of resignation as President of the Republic of Zimbabwe

    In terms of the provisions of Section 96, Sub-Section 1, of the Constitution of Zimbabwe, amendment number 20, 2013.

    Following my verbal communication with the Speaker of the National Assembly, Advocate Jacob Mudenda at 13:53 hours, 21st November, 2017 intimating my intention to resign as the President of the Republic of Zimbabwe, I, Robert Gabriel Mugabe, in terms of Section 96, Sub-Section 1 of the Constitution of Zimbabwe, hereby formally tender my resignation as the President of the Republic of Zimbabwe with immediate effect.

    My decision to resign is voluntary on my part and arises from my concern for the welfare of the people of Zimbabwe and my desire to ensure a smooth, peaceful and non-violent transfer of power that underpins national security, peace and stability.

    Kindly give public notice of my resignation as soon as possible as required by Section 96, Sub-Section 1 of the Constitution of Zimbabwe.

    Yours faithfully,

    Robert Gabriel Mugabe, President of the Republic of Zimbabwe.

    There is nothing to even suggest that Mugabe re-appointed Mnangagwa as ‘first Vice-President’.

    I’d say that Mugabe’s plan before the military intervened was to appoint Grace Mugabe, his wife, as ‘first Vice-President’.

    That Mnangagwa was not ‘first Vice-President’ was probably the cause of delay in Mugabe’s resignation – They wanted Mugabe to re-appoint him …

    Zanu-PF are now claiming that –

    In terms of the Constitution, if the office of the President falls vacant, it must be filled by a nominee of the Party which the former President came from. The nominee must take oath of office within 48 hours.

    A little ‘fly in the ointment’ that it looks like Zanu-PF will be let skate over.

    But it’s not a legal succession in terms of the Zimbabwe Constitution.

  20. Why is the NSW state government demolishing 2 stadiums? Then rebuilding them with the same capacity?

    Because the usual suspects will be constructing them. It’s such an obvious rort, I’m surprised more people aren’t up in arms.

  21. Rat

    I still think the library and civic centre are not great buildings.

    I wonder in 40 years how the Chatswood Concourse will fair.

    (As another Local Govt significant building project)

  22. Sydney Stadiums: I read some weeks ago that the pay TV broadcasters wanted a variety of stadium sizes so that it looked as though the stadiums were sold out i.e. you have to pay to watch because otherwise you won’t see it as the stadium is ‘sold out’.

  24. BiDG

    Only, of course, if the Rohingya have a Myanmar government document that identifies them as having been resident in Myanmar. The Myanamar military confiscated as many documents before ‘driving’ them over the border into Bangladesh.

    Myanmar and Bangladesh have signed a memorandum of understanding for the return home of hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees who fled to the neighbouring country to escape a Myanmar army crackdown, a senior Myanmar official says.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-23/bangladesh-signs-deal-to-return-myanmar-rohingya-refugees/9186728

  26. Julie Bishop was out and about tonight doubling down on her contempt for the cabinet leaker.

    The government has now ” officially ” cracked with the last chance support group for Turnbull, the cabinet, in a public cat fight.

    I am a complete political watch amateur but it looks like the Turnbull government is now terminal.

    Backbenchers in open revolt is one thing but when cabinet cracks then it cam only be a matter of time.

    We shall see.

    Cheers.

  28. KB – Tks. I just found a WP article that suggests there was a debate in Parliament on this, along the lines you mention.

    Some where in the last week or so I also read that some believed that Mnangagwa had never been appointed as ‘first Vice-President’ or was removed after some ‘indiscretion’ about five years ago and that was a point of contention with Mugabe (I don’t recall what the source of that was).

    So he would have been Vice-President of Zanu-PF but not Vice-President of Zimbabwe.

    Who knows … but it looks like Zuma and other African states will let them get away with this bit.

  29. doyley @ #1823 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 9:53 pm

    Julie Bishop was out and about tonight doubling down on her contempt for the cabinet leaker.

    The government has now ” officially ” cracked with the last chance support group for Turnbull, the cabinet, in a public cat fight.

    I am a complete political watch amateur but it looks like the Turnbull government is now terminal.

    Backbenchers in open revolt is one thing but when cabinet cracks then it cam only be a matter of time.

    We shall see.

    Cheers.

    For an ‘amateur’, which we all are except William and Kevin, you express some pretty good opinions IMHO.
    Don’t always agree, but you are thoughtful and worth reading.

  32. CTari at 2217

    2100 ABC news in Melbourne had a extended clip of Bishop stating that leaks constitute a criminal act.

    Some connected friends of mine in political circles at dinner this evening suggest that it was Bishop who leaked (and not for the first time)

    Expect the proverbial to hit the fan as early as tomorrow.

    The LNP are finished

  34. Julie Bishop(who had herself plonked on the front page of the Financial Review today)…
    or Greg Hunt, who also has been exposed recently as having leadership ambitions?

  35. bemused,

    Thank you for those comments.

    Irrespective of some argy bargy at times and differing opinion I believe we are both true believers and I do respect your passion for the labor cause.

    I am sure we will continue to have differing opinions at times in the future,strongly argued, and some conflict but such is the way it always has been. It is, I believe, healthy. Not pretty at times but healthy.

    Cheers.

  36. I object to the Treasurer being called “Sco Mo”. He doesn’t deserve that nickname.

    What about F*ckhead?

    I’m torn between admiring the force of your conviction, and hoping it doesn’t catch on.

  37. Ctar,

    Methinks she does protest too much but perhaps she is strutting her creditentials.

    Dutton and Morrison have been out strutting so why not Julie ?

    Whatever the case , cabinet has cracked and that cannot bode well.

    Cheers.

  41. Roger:

    I object to the Treasurer being called “Sco Mo”. He doesn’t deserve that nickname.

    What about F*ckhead?

    Personally, I would go with something truly damning, like “Scott Morrison.”

  42. Ctar,

    Everyone else is leaking against him so he may as well join in !

    It will be interesting to see who, within the cabinet, receives some bad press within the next day or two.

    Cheers and good night to all.

  44. UK: Good move!

    LONDON (Reuters) – Britain will increase the tax paid by those driving new diesel cars that do not meet the latest emissions standards from next year, in the latest blow to the hard-pressed sector.

    Sales of diesel cars have fallen 15 percent so far this year in Europe’s second-biggest autos market, whilst demand for petrol has increased 3 percent, as buyers shun diesel models fearful of more levies and regulatory crackdowns.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-budget-diesel/britain-to-hike-levy-on-diesel-cars-idUSKBN1DM1LX?il=0

  45. The government is truly falling to pieces, even moreso than usual. I’m not seeing a way back for them. A change of leader might provide a short-term bounce, but won’t fix any of their underlying problems. This level of disfunction is only fixed by lengthy stint in opposition.

    After these new leaks and John Alexander’s “comedy” routine, you’d have to wonder if a part of Turnbull is wishing the party would just hurry up and put him out of his misery.

  48. Tom

    the likes of Bishop et al would dearly like an ex PM pension…

    I think for the superannuation scheme BishJnr is in (the pre-Latham changes scheme) the final payout level is determined by the average over a period of years rather than what you’re ‘on’ at the moment you resign from parliament.

  50. Question for William: How much control do you have over the ads on here? The first ad I saw tonight was for Milo Yiannopoulos, and the current one is for a hotel in Seoul. I shudder at the though I might be a demographic match for the former, and am suitably baffled by the latter.

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