Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research polls on early election prospects and the next stage of same-sex marriage, and records little change on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research result appears to have Labor leading 54-46 (it says 52% to 46% in the report, but it also says there is no change). GhostWhoVotes was somehow able to relate that the primary votes were Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (steady). The poll finds 47% saying the government should run its full term, compared with 37% who favour an early election. Thirty-six per cent said they expected Labor to win the next election, compared with 20% for the Coalition, and 18% for a hung parliament.

The poll also found 63% of the view that marriage celebrants should be allowed to refuse to officiate at same-sex weddings, with 27% opposed. Other related issues were finely balanced: 48% opposed the notion that businesses should have the right to refuse service to gay weddings, while 43% supported it; 42% supported parents being able to remove their children from classes that did not reflect a traditional view of marriage, while 44% were opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,860 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  4. lizzie @ #1748 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 2:07 pm

    The Australian director of Human Rights Watch, Elaine Pearson, said Australia’s reputation was on the line. “Australia is standing idly by as PNG security forces are trashing the compound, confiscating phones, and aggressively telling refugees and asylum seekers they must leave,” she said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/23/manus-island-png-police-move-into-detention-centre-and-tell-refugees-to-leave?CMP=soc_568

    I’m listening to the ABC cricket at the moment and they went to a news summary which included some comments from the Potato.

    Those comments suggested there was nothing idle about the Governments position in regards to PNG’s actions.

    He seemed completely aware and supporting of what was going on providing some details himself.

  9. and this is news Barney?

    The way you allocate portfolios in a Coalition ministry is:
    1: ask the deputy Lib leader what they want.
    2: give Agriculture (used to be Trade) to the Nats leader
    3: give Treasury to the Lib you owe the most to in becoming leader if the deputy didn’t want it
    4: decide who the biggest cnut is out of the rest of them and give em bashing up the bloody reffos Immigration.

    everything falls into place pretty easy after that.

  10. ratsak @ #1756 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 2:24 pm

    and this is news Barney?

    The way you allocate portfolios in a Coalition ministry is:
    1: ask the deputy Lib leader what they want.
    2: give Agriculture (used to be Trade) to the Nats leader
    3: give Treasury to the Lib you owe the most to in becoming leader if the deputy didn’t want it
    4: decide who the biggest cnut is out of the rest of them and give em bashing up the bloody reffos Immigration.

    everything falls into place pretty easy after that.

    Up here I’m shielded from having to see and listen to him and mainly just read the reports of his comments, so when I do hear him it is striking at how much he seems to relish the delivery of the details of such misery under his control. 🙂

  12. ratsak

    2: give Agriculture (used to be Trade) to the Nats leader

    This one the problem because it is now “Agriculture & Water Resources” … capitulation by Turnbull to Joyce and, I assume, included in the letter of agreement reform the “Coalition” after the last election.

  13. Aqualung @ #1220 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 5:00 pm

    Rex,
    Sydney FC and the Wanderers get crowds of 30,000 to 40,000 to the derby depending how the teams are travelling. The SFS is home ground for Sydney FC so 45,000 is a good size. The ground needs a refurb not a rebuild. NRL get similar crowds for finals.
    Homebush is appalling to watch any league, union or football match on especially from behind the goals. There’s almost half a football ground between the goals and spectators at either end of the ground. There’s a sentimental attachment to the Olympics and the facilities themselves are fine but it’s a perfect example of a horse designed by a committee.
    However given the handful of games that would attract a substantial crowd to rebuild it would be an absolute waste of money.
    They’ve already demolished Parramatta Stadium which held 24,000 and are building a 30,000 seat stadium. They could have simply added the extra 6,000 seats by building stands at each end of the ground. It was built around the same time as the SFS and was also in good condition. They removed a well used public swimming pool to cater for the ‘mega’ stadium and have no intention of replacing it. We’re talking western Sydney here not Manly. 10 degrees hotter than the coast in summer.
    This is nothing but welfare for the libs mates. I can think of plenty of other uses the money could have been used for.
    Like replacing the thousands of demountables taking up playgrounds in our public schools.

    It’s a strange equation. Sydney absolutely needs an 80,000 seat stadium for State of Origin and the NRL GF… but it’s an expensive extravagance just for those couple of occasions each year, no doubt.

  14. CTar1

    “Agriculture & Water Resources” capitulation by Turnbull to Joyce

    And hasn’t Joyce made a copper-bottomed disaster of water.

  15. ScoMo playing Pontius Pilate.

    Sky News Australia‏Verified account
    @SkyNewsAust

    .@ScottMorrisonMP: The Manus deal was a @MrKRudd special and is now a matter for the PNG government.

  17. A cheering thought.

    British researchers collated evidence from more than 200 previous studies finding coffee consumption was linked to lower risks of diabetes, liver disease, dementia and some cancers.

    Three or four cups a day confer the greatest benefit, the scientists said, except for women who are pregnant or who have a higher risk of suffering fractures.

    Coffee is one of the most commonly consumed drinks worldwide.

    https://www.goodfood.com.au/drinks/coffee/three-coffees-a-day-benefits-your-health-20171123-gzrbsw?benref=theage

  18. On the Drum a hairdresser saying that she had to close one of her salons in Townsville because she couldn’t get hairdressers.

    I know a guy (born in the Philippines) who is an old fashioned barber. He taught both his sons to ‘barber’ prior to them going to university in Sydney.

    He says they had no problems getting as much work as they wanted while at uni.

  19. It’s a conundrum Rex. Sydneysiders have fallen out of love with live sport for some reason. When the SFS was built there were whinges that it wasn’t big enough. As it turns out it was the correct decision.

  22. lizzie @ #1274 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 6:40 pm

    ScoMo playing Pontius Pilate.

    Sky News Australia‏Verified account
    @SkyNewsAust

    .@ScottMorrisonMP: The Manus deal was a @MrKRudd special and is now a matter for the PNG government.

    You’d expect an alternate Australian Govt would campaign on having a Royal Commission into the management of our offshore processing centres if elected.

  23. Aqualung @ #1278 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 6:46 pm

    It’s a conundrum Rex. Sydneysiders have fallen out of love with live sport for some reason. When the SFS was built there were whinges that it wasn’t big enough. As it turns out it was the correct decision.

    I don’t know how much the NRL contributes to the NSW economy, but you’d expect they’d have to contribute a large percentage of the cost of replacing ANZ stadium.

  27. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, November 23, 2017 at 6:55 pm

    Aqualung @ #1278 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 6:46 pm

    It’s a conundrum Rex. Sydneysiders have fallen out of love with live sport for some reason. When the SFS was built there were whinges that it wasn’t big enough. As it turns out it was the correct decision.

    I don’t know how much the NRL contributes to the NSW economy, but you’d expect they’d have to contribute a large percentage of the cost of replacing ANZ stadium.

    Not sure they are. Gladys sold off the Land Titles Office and has a lazy couple of billion burning a hole in her developers cheque book. There can’t be anything left to flog off. I wonder how future governments are going to pay for anything in the future. There’ll be almost no revenue coming in.

  32. a r
    Wages / condition / head count cuts that lead to service cuts generally. The idea of efficiency dividends isn’t awful but the idea improving tech / processes results in constant efficiency gains with what is essentially negative investment (due to constant efficiency dividends) is pretty whacky.

  33. a r

    “Efficiency dividend” is just a fancy way of saying “service cuts”, right?

    These are unilateral cuts to force government agencies to decrease staff numbers without ministers having to identify what services will be cut. That decision is forced on the agency and so ministers can say ‘Not my decision. The public service did it”.

  34. Rex

    If the NRL is like the AFL they wont contribute to a new stadium.

    AFL will be the major user of Perth’s brand new colosseum but the governing body didn’t chip in. The two WA clubs will pay plenty in rent.

  35. rossmcg @ #1293 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 7:15 pm

    Rex

    If the NRL is like the AFL they wont contribute to a new stadium.

    AFL will be the major user of Perth’s brand new colosseum but the governing body didn’t chip in. The two WA clubs will pay plenty in rent.

    Freo and WCE will fill the Perth Stadium every week and that adds to the state economy which justifies Govt spending on the stadium. Same in Melbourne with the MCG and Etihad and Adelaide with their Oval .

    The NRL only fills ANZ stadium a couple of times a year and for the rest of the year it’s basically empty so it doesn’t justify large Govt spending. The NRL should be contributing largely to its rebuild.

  36. Of all the things we could be spending $2.3 billion on, two new sports stadiums to replace two perfectly good and relatively new (20-30 years) sports stadiums would have to be way down the list.

  37. Boerwar & Vogon Poet:

    At no point did I dispute that the Greens often accuse Labor and the Liberals of being the same. What I was arguing was that:

    A) The claim that the Greens criticize Labor more than the Coalition is inaccurate

    and

    B) Green MPs’ attacks on Liberal governments, ministers and policies are significantly more severe in tone and language than those on the Labor point.

    Case in point, the disgraceful situation unfolding on Manus at the moment. I can’t recall any time a Greens politician has anything about Labor as harsh as what they have been saying about Dutton and the Coalition’s handling of the whole thing. I mean, Nick McKim was calling the Coalition “monsters” in parliament a couple of weeks ago.

  39. Sydneysiders have never been big on live sport. I theorise that this might be owing to:
    – better weather in the football season. Lots of outdoor activities are available.
    – traffic and parking are a nightmare. Anything that attracts 10,000 people causes gridlock in surrounding suburbs.

  40. BiGD:

    What purpose does this serve?

    *

    Received invite from David Leyonhjelm who is hosting Milo Yiannopolous at parliament.

    Maybe the LDP is about to unviel a bold new pro-pedophilia policy?

  43. Bushfire Bill:

    Not that my opinion matters, but ScoMo’s message above re. Manus really is sickening.

    Just saw it, and I can only agree. Disgusting.

  44. Steve777 par for the course with this mob. The Entertainment Centre was also far from life expired yet they demolished that so they could replace it with a smaller venue. I live in western Sydney but would much rather go to the now demolished Ent Cent then go to Homebush. There is nothing at Homebush. You could find plenty of good reasonably priced food around Haymarket. Homebush grossly overpriced and average food in a small number of establishments. And a pain to get to and from.

  46. The NSW LNP have spearheaded a progressive assault on local Council’s and their control over the approvals process. The result is there to be seen.

  47. Ratsak @6:24PM: 4: decide who the biggest cnut is out of the rest of them and give em bashing up the bloody reffos Immigration.

    So many too choose from. Runner up gets Human Services.

  49. What mystifies me is that if all this so called necessary development goes ahead, the only Wran legacy that will remain is the Harbour Tunnel and The PowerHouse Museum. And Gladys is determined to flog the PHM off to one of her developer mates.
    The NSW ALP have said absolutely nothing about the needless destruction of this legacy.

  50. lizzie @ #1751 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 6:22 pm

    One of the main reasons for the rise in antibiotic resistance is the improper use of antibiotics, but our latest research shows that the ingredients in commonly-used weed killers like Round-up and Kamba can also cause bacteria to become less susceptible to antibiotics.

    https://theconversation.com/new-research-suggests-common-herbicides-are-linked-to-antibiotic-resistance-87678

    I’m sorry lizzie. but this is a very long bow – I call bullshit in search of funding.
    None of the researchers involved deal with the consequences of multi-resistant organisms (MROs), whereas they are part of my day job. The residual effects of herbicides are orders of magnitude less critical to medicine than the misuse/abuse of existing antimicrobials in human and agricultural practice. The implied threat of fund us or else does not help.

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