Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A slight move back to the Coalition on voting intention, and another finding of a resounding victory for yes in the same sex marriage survey.

As related by The Guardian, Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average result for this week has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 last week. As usual we will have to wait until Essential releases the full report later today for the primary votes.

On the same sex marriage survey, an excessive 86% report having voted, of whom 64% say they voted yes, 31% no, and the rest declining to answer. On the question of support for “an indigenous voice to parliament”, 45% expressed support with 16% opposed, while 47% expressed support for an indigenous treaty, with 16% opposed.

Also featured is the latest in the pollster’s semi-regular series on party attributes, with results similar to those from the previous outing in March. Even the Liberal Party’s rating as “divided” is unchanged at 68%, although it is down six points on being “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, now at 65%. Labor’s biggest change looks to be a six point drop for “moderate”, to 52%. If I understand the report correctly, the Liberal Party is up six on this measure to 53%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,743 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and Trump’s Asian tour.

    Davis Pope accurately points the finger at Erica and the RWNJs’ rearguard action.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    This is a beauty from Matt Golding!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/matt-golding-20151124-gl6ndp.html
    John Shakespeare and Turnbull’s problem with trust.

    More from Shakespeare – this time on the exemplary teamwork within the Coalition.

    Cathy Wilcox has Turnbull telling Dutton where to get off.

    Jon Kudelka introduces parliamentary isolation tanks.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ad9950ee4bb3828f60ce383caa2b640b
    Fiona Katauskas with a different sort of citizenship issue.

    Back at the Melbourne Cup with Peter Broelman.

    Paul Zanetti with the Battler Bus.

    From the US.

    Glen Le Lievre’s view of the “audit”.

    The world view of trickle-down economics.

    Matt Golding and a new tourist attraction in Canberra.

    Golding has Trump mixing up his speech notes.

    Golding with Turnbull’s many problems.

    Sean Leahy goes after Anastacia again.

    Alan Moir and the clock ticking down for Trump with the Russia issue.

    Mark Knight at a modern US church service.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/9e8068e73096c2db1bfb15ec58695174?width=1024

  2. Good Morning

    Hopefully Bolt praising the Greens will Scare the hell out of Turnbull and see an election coming!

    BevanShields: What a disgrace. Thugs confront Labor senator @samdastyari in a pub and call him a ‘monkey’ and ‘terrorist’. He handled an ugly scene very well facebook.com/PatriotBlueSta… #auspol
    https://twitter.com/bevanshields/status/928204306569838592

    sspencer_63: Hey @Toll_Group – you okay with people wearing your uniform while racially abusing federal senators? twitter.com/bevanshields/s…

  3. And now we have the detailed leak of what happened in Cabinet on Turnbull’s citizenship audit cunning plan. We are watching the end game..

    “PRIME Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s cabinet overruled his plans for in-depth citizenship scrutiny of politicians’ ancestors­’ birthplaces, dating back generations, concerned about the high level of intrusion and the danger of a government holding such a detailed­ record.

    Mr Turnbull on Monday presented to cabinet a plan he had personally­ developed to collate information on the birthplace of each parent and grandparent of senators and MPs to ensure they were eligible­ to sit in Parliament.

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull was knocked back by Cabinet over his solution to the citizenship fiasco.
    But The Daily Telegraph has learned his cabinet swiftly rounded on him, pointing out how intrusive his proposal was, how it posed a major privacy issue and how dangerous it would be for a government to hold such a detailed record of family history — and potentially for the public to access it.

    Cabinet colleagues pointed out that it could lead to identity fraud issues and jeopardise their safety.

    An argument swiftly ensued, and Mr Turnbull was overruled by his senior team.

    The Daily Telegraph understands senior cabinet ministers, including Peter Dutton were strongly opposed to Mr Turnbull’s proposal and spoke against him.

    Treasurer Scott Morrison was also outspoken along with Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg, who did not oppose the plan but has been shaken by the attack on his citizenship that has awakened memories of a traumatic time in his family­ history.

    One cabinet minister pointed out that it was not fair to a politician’s family, given their parents and grandparents did not choose for them to go in to parliament.

    “He wanted the birthplace of parents and grandparents to be disclosed by every MP — cabinet went nuts,” a well-placed source said.

    “It was far closer to an audit in everything but name.”

  4. Complaint to International Criminal Court names Abbott, Morrison, Dutton, Turnbull
    by Julian Burnside | Nov 11, 2016 | Asylum Seekers, Law | 8 comments
    A consortium of international lawyers, led from England, has asked the prosecutor at the International Criminal Court to take action against Australia for crimes arising out of its policy towards asylum seekers.
    The Consortium has issued a 52-page Communiqué which alleges that the Australian Government is guilty of international crimes because of its policy of indefinite mandatory detention of refugee “boat people” and their forcible removal to Manus Island (part of Papua New Guinea) and Nauru (which is called the Pacific Solution).
    The Communiqué fully explains that the Pacific Solution, which was revived in 2012 and remains in place, appears to have, as its primary objective, breaking the spirit of the people held on Manus or Nauru.

    http://www.julianburnside.com.au/complaint-to-international-criminal-court-names-abbott-morrison-dutton-turnbull/

  5. BevanShields: Greens leader Richard Di Natale predicts Malcolm Turnbull won’t survive Christmas, Australia will have a snap election in the next few months, and Bill Shorten will become prime minister #auspol

  6. KJBar: Karl to PM: “With the greatest respect you are waffling this morning.” PM says Karl is being “patronising” @TheTodayShow

  7. margokingston1: Surprise surprise. High Court goes on holiday Dec 15 till Feb. PM deadline Dec 18. Delay, delay, the legitimacy question. Shameless.

  8. Syria:

    “All over, bar the shooting” – that’ll go on indefinitely …

    BEIRUT (Reuters) – Syria’s army and its allies, led in the battle by Lebanon’s Hezbollah, have captured the last major Islamic State-held town in Syria, a commander in the military alliance supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said on Wednesday.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-islamic-state/syrian-army-allies-take-last-is-stronghold-in-syria-commander-idUSKBN1D81NM?il=0

  9. Here’s yet another twist to the citizenship debacle.

    Antony Green‏Verified account @AntonyGreenABC 3m3 minutes ago
    More
    1 – A Tas Senate re-count excluding Stephen Parry technically unelects Nick McKim, replaced by Kate McCulloch (One Nation)

  10. Turnbull slagging off at Shorten…doesn’t he understand that when you’re in negotiations with someone being petulant is counter productive? It was Turnbull who went to Shorten, not the other way around…

  11. srpeatling: Words fail me. Pauline Hanson on @samdastyari. twitter.com/grhutchens/sta…

    grhutchens: Pauline Hanson: “I call him Mr Bean because that’s exactly what he looks like. A little Mr Bean. But anyway, I’ve got absolutely no time for him whatsoever. I think he’s a smart arse, he shows it on the floor of parliament, he’s got no respect for the people.” #auspol

  12. ABC24 reports that Turnbull is accusing Shorten of failing to show leadership because Shorten would not come to an agreement at their meeting yesterday on the citizen imbroglio.

    Shorten, they say, said that he would need to consult with his party regarding Turnbull’s proposals prior to any agreement.

    Malcolm was fresh from a meeting with his party members before meeting Shorten with their set of ‘take them or leave them proposals.

  13. Zoomster, I agree.

    I just heard Turnbull slagging Shorten. Turnbull is supposed to be a good negotiator, but as far as I can see, he is good at being a bully and cowering his opponents into agreeing with him.

    This only works when you are in a position of power. Trouble is, this time around he isn’t. More fool him.

  14. AntonyGreenABC: 4 – And Jacqui Lambie’s replacement if disqualified and a re-count took place would be Steve Martin

    Could be an S44 problem with this guy. His remake of the Pink Panther was awful.

  15. “Turnbull slagging off at Shorten…doesn’t he understand that when you’re in negotiations with someone being petulant is counter productive? It was Turnbull who went to Shorten, not the other way around…”

    That is the standard Coalition “negotiation” technique: abuse and ridicule of opponents, demand immediate and unconditional compliance with the Coalition position, even if they haven’t yet worked out what it is, followed by more abuse and ridicule when such compliance isn’t forthcoming.

  16. ‘Failing to show leadership’ !?!

    Because Bill Shorten wouldn’t capitulate to a bully’s unreasonable, and advantageous only to him, demands!?!

    Because Bill Shorten, like a good leader of men and women, consults with his team before making a decision!?!

    Malcolm Turnbull is a WEAK leader, that’s what his performance shows.

    Bill Shorten is a STRONG leader.

  17. Another one?

    Liberal MP Jason Falinski in citizenship woes on Warsaw connection
    KYLAR LOUSSIKIAN, NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER, The Daily Telegraph
    14 minutes ago

    LIBERAL Jason Falinski is facing questions about dual Polish citizenship as Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Labor leader Bill Shorten yesterday failed to agree on a deal to quash the growing constitutional crisis in Parliament before Christmas.

    Mr Falinski could be a Polish citizen by descent, with ­immigration documents from June and July 1958 showing his father and grandfather had Polish citizenship when they arrived in Australia.

    The MP for the blue ribbon north shore seat of Mackellar — previously held by Bronwyn Bishop — vehemently denies any suggestion of his dual citizenship.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/liberal-mp-jason-falinski-in-citizenship-woes-on-warsaw-connection/news-story/c7f26d41492e5a5398f705987c003dc6

  18. Morning all

    Turns out Fox News is playing highlights of One year anniversary since Trump victory.
    Wonder if they will decide to mention the results of Virginia etc.

    Also wonder when the GOP decide that it is a good idea to impeach Trump. Unless they are more than happy to go down with the Trump ship

  19. And apparently Mike Pompeo CIA Director at Trump’s urging, meets with those pushing the idea that the DNC Hack was an inside job, rather than a Russian one. Strengthens my view that he is most definitely a bad actor in this imbroglio

  20. Hanson’s grand plan to be the puppeteer pulling the strings in the event of a hung parliament in Queensalnd:

    PAULINE Hanson says she will take a lead role in negotiations should there be a hung parliament after the November 25 Queensland election.

    The Queensland Senator, whose resurgence could see One Nation play a key role in determining the next premier, said unlike her disastrous foray into the Queensland Parliament in 1998 – where she won 11 seats only to see the party capitulate and deregistered – she was the one in control.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2017/queensland-election-2017-pauline-hanson-says-she-will-lead-hung-parliament-negotiations/news-story/4fcbfe16d18460ebdadf5b744cc7a294

  21. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, November 9, 2017 at 7:17 am

    And now we have the detailed leak of what happened in Cabinet on Turnbull’s citizenship audit cunning plan. We are watching the end game..

    But The Daily Telegraph has learned his cabinet swiftly rounded on him, pointing out how intrusive his proposal was, how it posed a major privacy issue and how dangerous it would be for a government to hold such a detailed record of family history — and potentially for the public to access it.

    Maternal grandmother: Australia, 1907; maternal grandfather: UK (Scot), 1905; paternal grandmother: Germany, 1910; paternal grandfather: Australia, 1915; mother: Australia, 1940; father: Australia, 1935.

    Yes, so much detailed information. How would they be able to go out in public?

    Cabinet colleagues pointed out that it could lead to identity fraud issues and jeopardise their safety.

    I say bullsh!t !!

    One cabinet minister pointed out that it was not fair to a politician’s family, given their parents and grandparents did not choose for them to go in to parliament.

    “He wanted the birthplace of parents and grandparents to be disclosed by every MP — cabinet went nuts,” a well-placed source said.

    “It was far closer to an audit in everything but name.”

    No names required, just country of birth and the year. Also a field to say what investigations and actions you have taken.

    They really are precious petals!

  22. It just gets worse for May – she and Turnbull have a lot in common at the moment.

    UK government minister Priti Patel resigned Wednesday amid a political storm over her undisclosed meetings with Israeli officials.

    The UK secretary of state for international development was summoned back from Kenya by Prime Minister Theresa May after it was revealed she met senior Israeli officials during a family holiday in the summer, a significant breach of diplomatic protocol.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/11/08/europe/uk-israel-priti-patel-row/index.html

  23. Mr Mayne said there have been a number of incidents over the years where more than 40 per cent of voters have voted against the Murdochs to unwind the gerrymander or to de-couple the roles of CEO and chairman, both Mr Murdoch himself.

    “The Saudi prince has always loyally stuck by Rupert to the very last,” Mr Mayne said.
    “If that 5 per cent voting block falls into different hands or it’s sold to normal, institutional investors, the control that the family has over the company would be reduced.”

    Editor’s note: A day after this story was published the ABC learned that Prince Alwaleed bin Talal had offloaded his 21st Century Fox Shares.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-07/saudi-prince-arrests-could-spell-disaster-for-rupert-murdoch/9125504

  24. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/you-terrorist-labor-senator-sam-dastyari-racially-abused-in-pub-20171108-gzhmqw.html

    On Thursday morning, Senator Dastyari said white nationalist behaviour was designed to make victims feel small and linked it to the resurgence of hard-right politics.

    “All of this is the rise of the radical right in this country, it is the rise of One Nation right. These are people who feel incredibly empowered because of what Pauline Hanson has done for them.”

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull condemned the incident, saying there should be “zero tolerance”.

    Well, not exactly zero, just a few exceptions natch, like preferencing and accomodating the new oh so sophisticated Hanson Rat Bags.

    Anyway, I sheet this home to Howard.

  25. Good morning all.
    Masterful headline from today’s paper GG
    ‘ALP blocks scrutiny of dubious trio’
    First paragraph
    ‘Bill Shorten is defying a citizenship truce offer and refusing to release documents of three MPs under a cloud despite assurances Labor has nothing to fear about the widening crisis ‘

    Worthy of Fox News.

  26. PhoenixRed

    If you are about, this piece by Rick Wilson is a good one

    Watching Carter Page immolate himself and incriminate a half dozen of his colleagues from the Trump-Putin 2016 campaign has been a strange, almost guilty pleasure. Profoundly disconnected, socially awkward, and reeking of late-stage virginity, he gives off the creepy Uncanny Valley vibe of a rogue, possibly murderous android or of a man with a too-extensive knowledge of human taxidermy and a soundproofed van.

  27. Turnbull: We’d like to see MPs table their S44 details by the end of the year.

    Shorten: We want it to happen sooner than that.

    Media: Labor using delaying tactics.

  28. The classic thing is that Turnbull is criticising Shorten for proposing something that strongly resembles what Turnbull took to Cabinet and was too spineless to stand up for.

  29. John Reidy says:
    Thursday, November 9, 2017 at 8:55 am
    Good morning all.
    Masterful headline from today’s paper GG
    ‘ALP blocks scrutiny of dubious trio’
    First paragraph
    ‘Bill Shorten is defying a citizenship truce offer and refusing to release documents of three MPs under a cloud despite assurances Labor has nothing to fear about the widening crisis ‘

    Worthy of Fox News.

    It’s in the Fox News tradition of being ‘fair and balanced’!

  30. Rantt News‏ @RanttNews 24m24 minutes ago
    History

    1st mayor of color in St. Paul @melvincarter3
    1st female mayor of Provo @kaufusi4mayor
    1st lesbian mayor in Seattle @JennyDurkan
    1st transgender state lawmaker @pwcdanica
    1st Sikh mayor in New Jersey @RaviBhalla
    & more

    Too much winning for 280
    http://snpy.tv/2zrDlpK

    So good!

  31. The GG headline was out done by an article yesterday
    ‘Windfarm threatens WW1 graves ‘.

    The pushes all the buttons I bet the journalist responsible for it will get a nice Christmas bonus.

    There is a follow-up today by one Paul Murray
    ‘If a single bone moves, it is an insult to all who fall’s.

    The Windfarm is being built in France, outside Bullecourt.

  32. lizeburke: .@Toll_Group says it’s investigating the incident that saw at least one of its employees launch a racist attack on @samdastyari bit.ly/2zGkhVH @newscomauHQ pic.twitter.com/RjRSd4jhEJ

  33. Having read BK’s links this morning and feeling no cheer, I went back to bed for some extra sleep.
    On waking I discover that our world has gone madder, with Pauline vowing to become the virtual leader of Queensland and Malcolm leading us nowhere.

  34. ObamaHitsBack: #WethePeople of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union,establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence,promote the general Welfare,and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity… perfect use for 280 characters

  35. Bizarrely overseas we have just seen two cases where dual citizenship and divided loyalties come into play.

    Hariri of Lebanon is in HOUSE ARREST in Saudi. ie the PM of another country is under arrest in his other counnty. Now this is exactly the sort of problem dual citizenship can create.

  36. guytaur says:
    Thursday, November 9, 2017 at 9:16 am

    lizeburke: .@Toll_Group says it’s investigating the incident that saw at least one of its employees launch a racist attack on @samdastyari bit.ly/2zGkhVH @newscomauHQ pic.twitter.com/RjRSd4jhEJ

    Yes, I can see that at least one of it’s employees will be looking for a new job.

    Not very smart these racist fw.

    In an obviously premeditated attack, as shown by the filming starting well before they were anywhere near Dastyari, they didn’t take off or cover up their employers corporate logos, something no company would tolerate being associated with.

  37. Apologies if this has already been pointed out.

    If Jacqui Lambie’s case goes to the High Court, her lawyers will be saying things to the effect of “Please don’t throw me into the briar patch!”. Here’s why.

    If Lambie is ruled ineligible for the Senate, the balance of her six year term will (barring the vagaries of Tasmanian below-the-line voting) go to her running-mate from the last election. That would leave Lambie herself free to renounce any foreign citizenship and contest the next election in nine or ten months time, and probably win. Net result : two JLN senators instead of one.

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