As related by The Guardian, Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average result for this week has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 last week. As usual we will have to wait until Essential releases the full report later today for the primary votes.
On the same sex marriage survey, an excessive 86% report having voted, of whom 64% say they voted yes, 31% no, and the rest declining to answer. On the question of support for “an indigenous voice to parliament”, 45% expressed support with 16% opposed, while 47% expressed support for an indigenous treaty, with 16% opposed.
Also featured is the latest in the pollster’s semi-regular series on party attributes, with results similar to those from the previous outing in March. Even the Liberal Party’s rating as “divided” is unchanged at 68%, although it is down six points on being “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, now at 65%. Labor’s biggest change looks to be a six point drop for “moderate”, to 52%. If I understand the report correctly, the Liberal Party is up six on this measure to 53%.
BK @ #1194 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 6:54 am
This is a very good article. Among other things, it points out how irrational both the German and Australian Greens are on climate change. In this debate results matter more than ideology.
The Australian Greens climate change policy is just so far behind the science it is embarrassing.
The wind turbines feed into an electricity grid shared between France, Germany, and many other countries in a peaceful and united European continent.
I think the soldiers would be ok with it.
“If Lambie is ruled ineligible for the Senate, the balance of her six year term will (barring the vagaries of Tasmanian below-the-line voting) go to her running-mate from the last election. That would leave Lambie herself free to renounce any foreign citizenship and contest the next election in nine or ten months time, and probably win. Net result : two JLN senators instead of one.”
It’s likely the Senate would decide to assign the replacement a 3-year term instead of 6 years as the order of election would change due to below the line preferences. There’s some questions over whether the Senate can do that but I think it probably can.
Malcolm “I’m a strong leader” Turnbull (yet again) feeling the need to convince himself . As the Donald would say “So sad”
‘I’m a good man in a crisis’: PM”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/pm-accuses-labor-of-exploiting-chaos-facing-parliament-on-citizenship/news-story/b799b5b615b5a8b8e5b2e8362ae0a8a7
BK @ #1193 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 6:53 am
This highlights just how distorted the article was that Trog linked to yesterday.
Itep,
I think that’s extremely unlikely. The decision on 3-or-6 year terms was a deal between the major parties that benefited both – Labor at the expense of the Greens, Liberal at the expense of Derryn Hinch. If JLN loses a six year term, only one of the majors can benefit, hence we can expect the other to do everything in their power to block it.
Hi dtt!
How’s your Virginia election forecasting going!?!
Looks pretty ignorant to me. 🙂
daretotread (Posted Anonymously)
Wednesday, November 8th, 2017 – 8:42 am
Comment #1
I have been watching this one.
Margin of error stuff in Virginia.
My gut feel is that Republican turnout will be higher than the Democrats.
daretotread says:
Thursday, November 9, 2017 at 9:32 am
Bizarrely overseas we have just seen two cases where dual citizenship and divided loyalties come into play.
Hariri of Lebanon is in HOUSE ARREST in Saudi. ie the PM of another country is under arrest in his other counnty. Now this is exactly the sort of problem dual citizenship can create.
This has nothing to do with citizenship and everything to do with the manipulation of Mid-East political events by Saudi and the absence of the rule of law in that country.
America will purge itself of Trump.
A good reason for BK to stop linking to articles written by Paula Mathewson:
Here’s some background on the charmer that abused Sam Dastyari.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/02/12/no-jail-melb-man-racist-calls
c@t
You are very norty. 😀
Matthewson has now deleted the twitter post.
ITEP
It would be next to impossible to put the Prime Minister of another county under House Arrest, whatever the crime. You would need to go through due process etc, probably even the International Courts of some kind
However when the PM is you OWN citizen it becomes easy.
Now in the case of Hariri he is (was) part of the Abdullah faction in Saudi and these have all been arrested (several killed). It seems completely unacceptable that the PM of a foreign country should be so intricately wound up in the dynastic affairs of another. Moreover he actually resigned while in Saudi arabia, which itself is bizarre.
It is also probably worth considering also the extent to which Priti Patel was working for the UK or for India when she was negotiating with Natanyahu. She did NOT have the permission of the UK Cabinaet, so it would seem she was acting for some other purpose. Now assuming that she was not being totally corrupt, then she probably had some other objective. This of course is the other side of the “citizenship” issue.
You can be a single nationality but your principle loyally may well be to another nation or authority. This is MOST likely to occur when there is religion involved but also for any prior nationality. In Australia some MPs were accused of having primary loyalty to the Vatican not Australia and frankly for Abbott and the other conservatives this may well be true still. Hindus and Muslims are not friends so possibly India is a natural ally for Israel. Given the emotional power of the holocaust experience, it is possible that many people of Jewish descent would be highly conflicted on any issues involving Israel. Ditto any issues involving Ireland for those with either strong Green or Orange links.
“Here’s some background on the charmer that abused Sam Dastyari.”
The guy also works for Toll (they gave him an employee award). Toll says they are investigating. Yeah, sure.
Here’s a great article on why victim blaming is bad and people doing it should feel bad.
I bet you can’t guess who it was that wrote it.
As it’s a tricky one, I’ll give you a hint – her surname is in the URL and she’s a hypocrite.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-04/matthewson-victim-blaming-takes-the-briggs-debacle-bad-to-worse/7065870
Briefly
Not even Saudi could place a PM of another country under house arrest if the guy were not ALSO a Saudi citizen.
Bleeding bloody obvious mate.
What’s with Morticia Adams!!!!!!
zoomster @ #1257 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 7:09 am
What goes on the internet, stays on the internet.
@ DTT – I’m always impressed by how naive you are.
You do know that throughout history, many leaders of countries have been murdered, imprisoned, ransomed etc?
What has changed that makes it impossible now?
Yes Cat
I predicted wrongly – or at least I thought the Republican turn out would be higher in Virginia.
It was overall a very good news story for the Democrats. It was fairly bad news for the Trump wagon also, but also for the anti Trump GOP, given that despite a late shift towards trump speak, the guy was a fully paid up member of the Repug old guard.
So as of now it is looking good for the Dems to get back many seats next year. Mind you it is still a year away, and a heck of a lot can happen.
I’m prepared to give Toll some slack here. They need to get their response right.
“We are currently investigating the matter involving Senator Sam Dastyari and whether the individuals involved are currently employed by Toll. The actions of these individuals in no way reflects our beliefs and values as a company”.
@GG – agreed, firing someone based on media reports without doing some serious investigation is how you end up in a wrongful dismissal suit.
dtt…..India does not permit dual citizenship. Whatever feelings Patel may or may not have about India, she cannot be one of their citizens.
Hariri is in trouble with both the Persians and the Arabs. He was threatened with assassination by the former and has been imprisoned without charge or trial by the despots who rule the latter. His crime is probably no more than his loyalty to Lebanon.
Voice
What nonsense.
We are not talking the middle ages when Kings got ransomed. Hariri was the PRIME MINISTER of Lebanon. Arresting him would normally create a huge international incident, but because he is also a Saudi citizen it gets a pass card. Sure plenty of leaders get assassinated, but not blatantly put under house arrest.
Consider perhaps PM Penny Wong, under a regime where dual citizenship is allowed.She travels back to Malaysia and for some political motive she is placed under House arrest, not as PM of Australia but as a Malaysian citizen. Or PM Tanya Plibersek who kept her Baltic nation citizenship. Then international tension increases and Russia retakes its old territory and installs a puppet government. Tanya happens to be visiting relatives (or goes as some sort of peacemaker) and is arrested for subversrion since she is still a citizen of the county.
Patel is infatuated with the relics of Empire and, most likely, has forgotten the lessons of the Suez crisis.
Briefly
Read a little more!!
It was only alleged that he was under threat from Iran and indeed any such threat would be batshit crazy do only a moron would give it any cred whatsoever.
It is wrong to say Arabs, since it is apparently a factional dispute within Saudi between rival brothers and their families. I gather there are also financial issues and Hariri is now bankrupt. The Lebanese President has NOT accepted his resignation.
The point is it is obviously an issue of concern crating uncertainty and complexity.
If you had bothered to read what I wrote re patel you would recall I did say this was an issue of allegiance NOT citizenship. realted but not the same.
Gotta go.
DTT, you’re conflating dual nationality and divided loyalties. That could certainly be true of people who have deliberately acquired 2 nationalities, but to suggest that most of the MPs who’ve been caught by s 44 would have divided loyalties is just ridiculous! Consider Larissa Waters – born in Canada to Aussie parents who returned soon after – why would she “feel” Canadian? Or Fiona Nash – father was a Scot who abandoned her Mum and her after, what, 3 months? Would that give her a feeling of loyalty to the UK? I’d kind of think not! These people (and their party organisations) have been very careless in that they didn’t take the hint from the Sykes v Cleary decision, but let’s leave the ranting about them having divided loyalties to the Hansonites.
Dan G
reporting, not defending.
Indeed, I’ve suggested to her she needs to go further and apologise for the slur.
@ Daretotread –
Just like the international community is springing into action to protect the sovereign state of Catalonia, whose leaders had to flee the country to avoid arrest.
The international community decide who to back based on power, guns and $. Not based on morals.
The same nationalist sentiments that encourage idiots to insult – even to menace – Sam Dastyari also underlie the phobic denunciations of politicians that also happen to be dual citizens.
This is not about loyalty. It is about bigotry.
I don’t think Trump cares about losing governorships or will care about the mid-term Congressional elections either.
Afterall even with the GOP controliing Congress the sole thing he’s get through is one SC judge in ten or so months.
An interesting read from Nate Silver on Democrat’s chances for 2018 midterms
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-fundamentals-favor-democrats-in-2018/
“Democrats also face a big disadvantage in the way their voters are distributed across congressional districts, as a result of both gerrymandering and geographic self-sorting. Although these calculations can vary based on the incumbency advantage and other factors, my back-of-the-envelope math suggests that Democrats would only be about even-money to claim the House even if they won the popular vote for the House by 7 percentage points next year. The Republican ship is built to take on a lot of water, although it would almost certainly capsize if the Democratic advantage in the House popular vote stretched into the double digits, as it stands now in some congressional preference polls.”
As I was watching the hysterical report on the news last night my mind went back to a recent event in an old battlefield. The bones of Australian soldiers were removed, an attempt at identification made and the bones reinterred at a nearby Commonwealth War Cemetery with much fanfare. Why not the same if any bones are found at the wind turbine site?
The French have always been respectful and accommodating. I frankly found the report on this cringeworthy right down to getting a 100yo WWII veteran to comment.
victoria says:
Thursday, November 9, 2017 at 8:59 am
PhoenixRed
If you are about, this piece by Rick Wilson is a good one
Watching Carter Page immolate himself and incriminate a half dozen of his colleagues from the Trump-Putin 2016 campaign has been a strange, almost guilty pleasure. Profoundly disconnected, socially awkward, and reeking of late-stage virginity, he gives off the creepy Uncanny Valley vibe of a rogue, possibly murderous android or of a man with a too-extensive knowledge of human taxidermy and a soundproofed van.
Rest of article
https://amp.thedailybeast.com/the-strange-pleasure-of-seeing-carter-page-set-himself-on-fire
*****************************************************************
Thanks Victoria – just walked in from Thursday morning shopping – I always enjoy Rick Wilsons writings – he has a gift with the written word and a droll sense of humour that makes his articles both informative and entertaining !!!
He has plenty of material to work with in Carter Page …… who *almost* make Trump sound intelligent for what comes out of his mouth ….
USA Congress poll tracking
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo
I would love to see William do a version of this graph (hint hint!) – I dont like the way 538’s jerks around with new polling data.
Rep. Al Green Declares That He Will Force A Vote On Trump Impeachment Before Christmas
Rep. Al Green (D-TX) announced on the House floor that he would be moving forward with his plan to force a vote on Trump impeachment in the House before Christmas.
Rep. Green said, “I now announce that before Christmas, there will be a vote on the chief inciter of racism, bigotry, hatred, xenophobia, sexism, ethnocentrism. There will be a vote in the U.S. House of Representatives on the impeachment of the president.”
As much as many Democrats want Trump impeached, forcing a vote on impeachment with Republicans in control of the House and Senate is not the best strategy. House Republicans will vote against the bill, while House Democrats will be in an awkward position. If they vote for impeachment, they will be potentially devaluing a future impeachment case against Trump. If they vote against impeaching the President, they will enrage Democrats.
A vote on articles of impeachment against Trump would feel good now, but they could complicate matters later after the Russia investigation is complete and Democrats possibly control all or part of Congress.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/08/rep-al-green-declares-force-vote-trump-impeachment-christmas.html
briefly @ #1276 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 10:44 am
Mmmmmmmmm.
A pollie being insulted in a pub by some rascist nutjobs has some sort of equivalence with pollies being forced to comply with the Constitution before standing for office.
Beam me up Scotty.
@pheonixRed – alternatively, it’s tactical brilliance.
They are betting that Trump will go. That treason, or coverup will bring him down.
Trump is no longer an opponent to worry about. The only concern for Democrats is to ensure that Trump does as much damage to the Republicans as possible.
Republicans are being asked to declare confidence in someone they know is likely to be impeached for something close to treason.
If they vote for impeachment, they tear the party apart now. If they vote against it, the voters tear them apart later for supporting Trump.
“A pollie being insulted in a pub by some rascist nutjobs has some sort of equivalence with pollies being forced to comply with the Constitution before standing for office.”
Nobody here is advocating that politicians not be forced to comply with the constitution. Do not strawman people. They are arguing that the constitution should be changed.
Dtt…why would a bludger trouble themselves to read your posts closely?
They’re nonsense.
What is the point of being able to block anonymous posters who are mostly unknown, and not being able to block those who are very familiar?
How can the Federal Parliament vote on any issue – including same sex marriage – when so many of its members appear to be ineligible?
sprocket_ @ #1192 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 6:17 am
And yet metadata retention and realtime facial recognition are just fine for the plebs.
Voice Endeavour @ #1262 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 9:26 am
Unless you’re suggesting that the video is fake, that’s just plain silly.
And if you’re suggesting that the video is fake…that’s just plain silly too.
No serious investigation required; the recording speaks for itself.
I dont know why Paula Mathewson deleted her tweet, if she believes in something she should stand by it and not back down.
Probs people who agree with her like the blokes having the discussion with Sam that Sam can be provocative and that there is things he could do to be less provocative, like anglicising his last name, whitening his skin a bit, wear a aussie flag around his neck that he should kiss upon meeting any true blue patriots.
Adrian, the desire to exclude is the desire to exclude, whether it’s directed against a person because of their religion or some other arbitrary ground. In each case, this is simply phobic.
Voice Endeavour @ #1285 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 11:16 am
I don’t believe that I am ‘strawmaning’ anyone.
Briefly can speak very eloquently for himself, but my reading of his numerous comments on this subject are that he is going beyond simply changing the constitution.
Happy to be corrected if I am wrong.
lizzie @ #1287 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 11:23 am
AR has explained that because C+ is unable to “tag” individual anonymous posters and therefore one cannot block such individuals.
The option to block all anonymous posters is, as your post indicates, not a good option.
A better option would be that William make it mandatory for posters to log on.
I think that some posters deliberately remain anonymous so that nobody can block them.
Bear in mind that I have been known to be wrong on occasion.
Rainy day in Newcastle. I have the heater on in my bedroom and I await the favourite daughter who will take me to collect prescription medication later today.
🌂 🌈 ☮
“I think that’s extremely unlikely. The decision on 3-or-6 year terms was a deal between the major parties that benefited both – Labor at the expense of the Greens, Liberal at the expense of Derryn Hinch. If JLN loses a six year term, only one of the majors can benefit, hence we can expect the other to do everything in their power to block it.”
Well, they’ll likely want to rejig terms for other senators too. For instance, Fierravanti-Wells to receive 6 years rather than Hughes; Duniam to receive 6 years over Colbeck; Siewert to receive 6 years rather than Steele-John. This will require cooperation, which is easier if the same reasoning is used in each case – that being to preserve the same methodology as initially used – terms to be decided based off of order of election.
I suppose it’s possible they’ll just leave it in the too-hard basket, we shall soon see!