Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A slight move back to the Coalition on voting intention, and another finding of a resounding victory for yes in the same sex marriage survey.

As related by The Guardian, Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average result for this week has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 last week. As usual we will have to wait until Essential releases the full report later today for the primary votes.

On the same sex marriage survey, an excessive 86% report having voted, of whom 64% say they voted yes, 31% no, and the rest declining to answer. On the question of support for “an indigenous voice to parliament”, 45% expressed support with 16% opposed, while 47% expressed support for an indigenous treaty, with 16% opposed.

Also featured is the latest in the pollster’s semi-regular series on party attributes, with results similar to those from the previous outing in March. Even the Liberal Party’s rating as “divided” is unchanged at 68%, although it is down six points on being “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, now at 65%. Labor’s biggest change looks to be a six point drop for “moderate”, to 52%. If I understand the report correctly, the Liberal Party is up six on this measure to 53%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,743 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Dear Mr A.R.
    Can you fix your FANTASTIC chrome/firefox addon so that it can block (Posted Anonymously) users as well, as i wish to block the #US_election crank whatever he/she appears as THANKS A.R.
    ALSO can you supply the source code as I would wish to learn how to do that stuff you do, and do that stuff you do so well :O) hehe :OP

  2. Also “Speaking of Fry..dem..burgers” When I was in Budapest in 2013 I happened to go to “Burger King” and their burgers were divine, like from ‘heaven’ (just like in the heaven/hell episode of Red Dwarf/for those in the know) and every where else were shit… Also McCafe were divine as well :OP… Hungary is like gourmet heaven :O)

  3. Trump Cuts Funding For Mental Health Then Blames Mental Illness For Texas Church Shooting

    Trump went out of his way to call the church shooting in Sutherland, Texas a mental health issue, but his budget makes huge cuts in mental health programs, on top of those with mental health issues who would lose their health insurance if Obamacare is repealed.

    The problem is that Trump’s budget cuts $400 million from mental health programs. It is estimated that 1.2 million people with serious mental health and substance abuse issues will lose their health insurance if Obamacare is repealed.

    Trump and the GOP will say anything to avoid blaming the gun, but that won’t do is put their money where their mouths are and fund, not cut, mental health programs.

  4. Moron President Humiliates America By Admitting He Didn’t Know There Were So Many Countries

    While speaking at a state dinner in Japan, Trump admitted that he didn’t know that there were so many countries in the world.

    Trump said, “So my relationship with Shinzo got off to quite a rocky start because I never ran for office, and here I am. But I never ran, so I wasn’t very experienced. And after I had won, everybody was calling me from all over the world. I never knew we had so many countries.”

    The man who is representing every single US citizen overseas. The man who is speaking for all of us during this Asia trip had no idea that there were “so many countries” in the world. Trump’s international travel is a humiliation for the entire United States of America.

    Trump can’t string two sentences together without himself and by extension the United States of America.

    Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was correct. Donald Trump is a moron, and sending the moron abroad only inspires the rest of the world to ask what is wrong with the United States?

  5. ‘If we come to power’: Donald Trump Jr. suggested he would overturn anti-Russia law, Russian lawyer says

    Donald Trump Jr. reportedly told Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya during the 2016 campaign that his family would consider overturning an anti-corruption law opposed by Russia “if we come to power.” And she said that he also asked her to provide damaging information about Hillary Clinton.

    Bloomberg reported on Monday that Veselnitskaya made the remarks during a television interview in Moscow.

    According to Veselnitskaya, Trump Jr. also asked her to provide evidence that Clinton’s campaign accepted illegal donations connected to tax evasion. She said that she did not have the evidence he requested “and described the 20-minute meeting as a failure,” Bloomberg reported.

    Veselnitskaya said that she would be willing testify before the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee if they agreed to make the testimony public.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This is quite a big colletion!

    Can Turnbull do ANYTHING right these days?
    Mark Kenny examines Turnbull’s motives with respect t he proposal for a parliamentary citizenship register.
    Paul Bongiorno says make no mistake about it. The stability of the Turnbull government is at tipping point, the catalyst being the extraordinary mishandling of Liberal Senate president Stephen Parry’s dual citizenship.
    Adam Gartrell on JA’s potential citizenship crisis. Alexander doesn’t appear to have been particularly thorough.
    Paul Kelly writes that Malcolm Turnbull has bowed to the inevitable: a process short of an audit to require all MPs to declare and show they are not dual citizens and that this is the next potentially deadly stage of the dual-citizenship crisis. Google.
    The citizenship saga could spell the beginning of the end of the Turnbull government, writes Ben Eltham. Quite a good article.
    Deeper grooves run through the dual citizenship debate and recent High Court decision concerning the so-called “Citizenship Seven” than can be detected at first glance.,10902
    Here’s Michelle Grattan’s rather bland contribution on the subject.
    Abbott has predicted more MPs will be implicated in Parliament’s ongoing citizenship fiasco.
    Laura Tingle says that Turnbull’s circuit breaker could prove to be electrifying! Google.

  7. Section 2 . . .

    Nassim Khadem says that we should be naming and shaming those shown in the Paradise Papers and the like to be rorting us on taxation.
    Apple, the world’s biggest company, swapped one tax haven for another shifting the management of its Irish subsidiaries to Jersey, the Paradise Papers reveal. Google.
    Andrew Leigh tells us that the Paradise Papers show why Labor’s policy to force companies to report their use of tax havens is so necessary.
    Peter Hartcher says that Trump seems to have shocked Canberra out of its long torpor with respect to its national strategy in a world without US leadership.
    Paddy Gourley piles into Pezzullo and Pyne – with good cause.
    Average electricity prices in South Australia fell below those in coal-rich Victoria and NSW in the first four months of the financial year, and have been the lowest of any mainland eastern state in the past two months. Where are all the smartarses now? Google.
    A Liberal Party veteran and former head of the federal government’s green bank has unleashed on his party’s “immoral” climate change policies, saying they “knowingly and willingly inflict damage on others”.
    Richard Wolffe on the heartbreaking stupidity of America’s gun laws. He says the debate has become demented.
    It’s really worth absorbing this exposure of hoe Nike avoids paying its fair share of tax.

  8. Section 3 . . .

    Liberal MPs, including Trent Zimmerman and Tim Wilson, have met GetUp! over same-sex marriage and clean energy. Google.
    An offshore law firm regarded Serco, a company that runs sensitive government services in Australia and the UK, as a “high-risk” client, expressing concern about its “history of problems, failures, fatal errors and overcharging”, the Paradise Papers reveal.
    Professor Richard Mulgan says the Public Service Commissioner John Lloyd has questions to answer over his cosy relationship with the IPA. He concludes with “It reveals the depth of disrespect that many conservative politicians hold for the conventions of an apolitical public service.”
    Peter van Onselsn tells us that the next two state elections — Queensland in a month and South Australia early next year — represent the biggest threat to the two-party system in this country in a generation. Either state could soon see one of the major parties forced to government in coalition with a significant minor party. Google.
    Evan Jones examines the MSM’s problems with the truth.,10901
    Gerry Harvey’s headed for another AM showdown. Google.
    Norm Abjorensen on how PMs have gathered more power and influence over time, making them more vulnerable.–how-each-prime-minister-shaped-the-bureaucracy-20171105-gzf6tm.html
    Jenna Price explores the links between domestic violence and suicide.
    The Liberals’ problem is they are a centre party trying to woo a centre-left electorate. Google.
    Some good signs for SSM from this latest Essential poll.

  9. Section 4 . . .

    Peter Martin traces Australia’s history of life expectancy.
    The dehumanising brutality shown towards the Manus Island refugees by the Turnbull Government would have seen Frydenberg’s mother barred from entering Australia in 1950, writes John Passant.,10897
    Another mass shooting and more prayers. America has officially given up!
    It appears that Rupert Murdoch may have been affected by the shenanigans in Saudi Arabia.
    Greg Jericho writes that weak retail figures suggest households are not confident enough to spend any increase in income at the shops and backs it up with the relevant data,
    The three types of bias seen in employment dispute resolution.
    Professor Jenny Stewart says that when governments overpromise and underdeliver, or overreact, we all bear the cost.
    It’s really no surprise the US produced a president like Donald Trump. Lots of things are broken over there.
    Theresa May has called for a “new culture of respect” to counter Westminster’s growing sleaze scandal.
    Susie O’Brien says that bad service will continue if we don’t fight back. Quite a good spit. Google.

  10. Section 7 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    Paul Zanetti and Anastacia’s problems with Adani.

    Matt Golding NAILS it!

    And he goes further.

    Golding sorts out Turnbull’s pressers.

    Golding and the Caymans.

    Mark Knight with Turnbull having just SO much fun.

    And Knight gives Minx a spell.

    Sean Leahy and a Cup favourite.

    Leahy and Hanson’s travel.

    Jon Kudelka paraphrases Howard.

    Pat Clement and a Paradise Papers warning.

  11. Thanks as always BK.

    ‘The dehumanising brutality shown towards the Manus Island refugees by the Turnbull Government would have seen Frydenberg’s mother barred from entering Australia in 1950, writes John Passant.’

    I suppose it’s to be expected that apparently none of the assembled brains trust in the CPG made this obvious connection.

  12. BK says: Tuesday, November 7, 2017 at 7:24 am



    You are our Melbourne Cup Day winner, BK – just fantastic !

  13. Fox News Stops Running Ad Calling For Impeachment After Trump Tantrums On Twitter

    An ad by progressive billionaire Tom Steyer ran once on Fox News and then was stopped after Donald Trump saw it and threw a Twitter tantrum. Fox News took Steyer’s money and ran the ad on the October 27 edition of Fox and Friends. Trump adores the Fox morning misinformation program, so it wasn’t a surprise when he tweeted on the same day that the ad aired:

    Donald J. Trump ‎@realDonaldTrump

    Wacky & totally unhinged Tom Steyer, who has been fighting me and my Make America Great Again agenda from beginning, never wins elections!

    After Trump complained, Fox News released a statement, “Due to the strong negative reaction to their ad by our viewers, we could not in good conscience take their money.” By “our viewers,” Fox meant Trump.

    It is obvious what happened. The cable news obsessed Trump saw the ad, flipped out, called Fox News to complain, and an American news network suffocated the First Amendment because an ad hurt Trump’s feelings. Fox News is helping Trump kill the free press, and they have delivered definitive proof that they are not a news network, and they should be treated like the propaganda tool that they are.

  14. Thanks BK. The striking thing is how much the news is about what is happening to the Turnbull government, rather than what it is doing. They seem to have no capacity to set the agenda.

  15. Repeat of a previous post

    Good morning everybody.
    Most will already know about and and will have their own little picture/symbol which appears whenever one posts to Poll Bludger or elsewhere.
    When Poll Bludger was hosted by Crikey a Gravatar (little colourful symbol) was assigned to posters until such time as they logged onto and uploaded an image to suit (any suitable picture/symbol/cartoon) was uploaded and thus became ones “Gravatar”.
    William’s does not assign one of those little colorful “Gravatars” and because of that those without a “Gravatar” will have just a placeholder alongside their “Handle” when posting.
    So, good friends and neighbours, get yourself an image to be proud of by logging on to first and then and amaze your less creative neighbours.
    You can have many or just one Gravatar and change whenever you like just by re logging on to
    How can I get a Gravatar?
    First sign in to and create an account
    and then go to Gravatar’s website. Sometimes signing in to will kick you to In any case the procedure is quite simple. Yes, yes, Cynthia, I know some people have had problems.
    Signup with the email that you use the most often to comment. Add an avatar of yourself. This could be a picture of yourself, your company’s logo, or something unique. You really only have to do it one time. Chances are you won’t be changing your avatar a lot. So it’s more like set it and forget it.
    An “avatar” is an image that represents you online—a little picture that appears next to your name when you interact with websites.
    A Gravatar is a Globally Recognized Avatar. You upload it and create your profile just once, and then when you participate in any Gravatar-enabled site, your Gravatar image will automatically follow you there.
    Gravatar is a free service for site owners, developers, and users. It is automatically included in every account.

    A further note:- Logging on to the Poll Bludger allows AR’s C+ to function fully.

    😊😊 ☕ ☮

  16. phoenixRED says:
    Tuesday, November 7, 2017 at 7:36 am

    Fox News Stops Running Ad Calling For Impeachment After Trump Tantrums On Twitter

    I’d put he ad in the basket marked; Tom Steyer trolling trump.

    Moron’s watch fox and friends,
    Trumps watches fox and friends,
    Trump is a Moron (ask the secretary of state)

  17. Thanks BK.

    Re Garnaut, and the relative drop in SA electricity prices.
    Garnaut is referring to the wholesale price which constitutes only a fraction of the retail price. Once you add on retailer rorts and transmission costs, a different picture emerges.
    A few points:
    1) Wholesale prices have actually gone negative at times when there has been a surplus of wind power available.
    2) Wind energy has helped reduce the rorting of gas generators using the 30 minute rule to game the system and push short-term pricing through the stratosphere.
    3) Frydenberg and Turnbull need to be called out big time for their lies about the impact of renewables on power prices – as Weatherill has done.
    4) Xenophon has supported the tinfoil hat brigade objecting to wind development.
    5) Xenophon’s vote decided the privatisation of the SA grid, and locked in high prices for grid-connected South Australians.

    I trust that SA Labor will fully expose Xenophon’s complicity wrt high power prices during the election campaign.

  18. John Wren‏

    Seriously @turnbullmalcolm. What’s the point of “declarations”? Joyce, Nash et al already did that when they nominated, repeatedly.

  19. KayJay

    Appreciate the links for gravatars. Haven’t figured out what image I want, but will get onto it at some stage.


  20. Good Morning

    Fellow bludgers. Thanks BK.


    Its Labor and the Greens setting the agenda.

    No surprise. We have a PM and party that are totally lacking what Keating termed the “vision thing”.

    When you are into deny reality you can’t look into the future as your foundation is built on sand.

  21. Quite a few “rumours” only at this stage regarding a few Trump members quietly resigning related to Paradise Papers and other Russian linked issues – names being bandied include Sessions, Ross, Tillerson, DeVos …… but maybe just usual Trump smokescreen ploy of trying to provide distraction from the Texas shooting

  22. South Australia’s stunning transition to consumer-powered grid.

    As we report here, rooftop PV sent grid demand to a new record low of 554MW on Sunday, just six weeks after a previous low – which had in turn beaten the earlier low set a week earlier than that by nearly 25 per cent.

    It’s a taste of what is to come. Major studies by the likes of the CSIRO and the networks association predict that by 2050, half of all demand will be met by what they describe as “distributed generation” – a mix of rooftop solar, battery storage, and “localised” generation.

    This represents a major shift from the recent and current state of the industry from centralised energy controlled by major corporations, to local supply and demand – leading to new players and new business models.

    But in South Australia – as is the case with so much of the energy transition – it could come quicker than that. By 2025/26, AEMO says rooftop solar could generate 2,500GWh a year. That would be around 22 per cent of total demand in the state.

  23. jvedmond: @YaThinkN They already self report. They make a declaration when they nominate. Time to penalise false declarations. #section44 #auspol

  24. Malcolm Farr‏Verified account @farrm51 · 15m15 minutes ago

    PM Turnbull on citizenship: Bigger writing & arrows on forms & more hand-holding for candidates nominating to run Australia

  25. Good morning Bludgers 🙂
    The best news of the day, as far as I’m concerned, is that due to the Saudi purge of their corrupt princes, Rupert Murdoch has likely been mortally wounded in a business sense. The blocking votes to maintain the 2 class share structure at 21st century fox and News Corp that the prince provided to Rupert Murdoch has all but disappeared.

    So next week’s AGM will be one to watch with excitement and anticipation.

  26. Mornin’

    Thanks BK

    I don’t know how the LNP can have risen a point except “moe” because nothing they did last week invited good responses from the public.

  27. small towner, the burger I had at Burger King in Colombo was amazeburgers. The food in Sri Lanka was definitely fantastic (except no one can make a simple sandwich worth a Damn), but I do wonder if three weeks of curry might have influenced my opinion of that burger.

    My SIL is Hungarian and is a great cook (quality and quantity). Josh does prove that not everything from Hungary is necessarily nutritious and delicious though.

  28. With regard to gravatars.

    Every time I tried to upload a pic, the gravatar site told me there was an error that was their fault and they were looking into it. It kept happening for a few days with no fix. So I gave up, and uploaded my image to and then loaded it into via the “From URL” option.

    A pain, but it worked in the end.

    And while on the subject, I wish the display of avatars on this site were bigger and square. I wanted to use a photo of myself, but being so tiny and cropped into a circle, it would have been an indistinct blur.

  29. political_alert: Leader of the Opposition in the Senate @SenatorWong will hold a media doorstop on the Govt’s “citizenship crisis” at 12pm, Adelaide #auspol

  30. PhoenixRED,
    I reckon the Trump gang will wear the Paradise Papers revelations as a badge of honour. They won’t resign. They’ll just say that they haven’t done anything illegal and they’re just doing what is best for them and their families. Or something equally hokey like that.

  31. “More importantly it is legally binding!”

    Fault element is knowledge though, so none of the cases would be easily prosecuted. Nor will an incorrect statement under the proposed resolution.

    I find the complaints about the proposed scheme a little silly because any inquiry or audit would be based, at least initially, off of statements by the members of Parliament. It seems ok to me as a first step.

  32. Comments weren’t loading properly on Chrome with C+ installed until I unchecked the ‘override HTML comments’ box, for those experiencing similar problems.

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