Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A slight move back to the Coalition on voting intention, and another finding of a resounding victory for yes in the same sex marriage survey.

As related by The Guardian, Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average result for this week has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 last week. As usual we will have to wait until Essential releases the full report later today for the primary votes.

On the same sex marriage survey, an excessive 86% report having voted, of whom 64% say they voted yes, 31% no, and the rest declining to answer. On the question of support for “an indigenous voice to parliament”, 45% expressed support with 16% opposed, while 47% expressed support for an indigenous treaty, with 16% opposed.

Also featured is the latest in the pollster’s semi-regular series on party attributes, with results similar to those from the previous outing in March. Even the Liberal Party’s rating as “divided” is unchanged at 68%, although it is down six points on being “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, now at 65%. Labor’s biggest change looks to be a six point drop for “moderate”, to 52%. If I understand the report correctly, the Liberal Party is up six on this measure to 53%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,743 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 35
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  4. Sam Crosby‏ @SamPCrosby 19m19 minutes ago
    Whatever your political views, surely we can agree that Campbell Newman isn’t the best placed person to give advice on #QldVotes2017 #qldpol
    :large

  5. It’s always instructive to listen to AM to receive a usually unvarnished version of what the government’s talking points/strategy will be for the day.

    Today it was Craig Laundry whining about the demands that the constitution places on hapless politicians, and marvelling at his newly discovered love of multiculturalism.

    This was followed by Cormann taking one for the team, eating a shit sandwich in response to Sabra Lane’s gossamer tinged questioning.

    Surprisingly, the AM producers must have been unable to contact any Labor politicians.

  6. Donald Trump describes what happened in Texas as ‘a mental health problem of the highest level’.

    ??? ‘The highest level’???

    The words could describe his own situation as seen by others.

  8. Essential continuing to indicate that nothing is going to move the polls. Probably not indicative of what would happen in a campaign when actually focusing on the choice would I expect (hope) Labor would swing a few percent of the ‘others’ into the PV column without effecting the 2PP much. But at the moment the pox on both houses opinion is dominant and people have pretty much locked in their opinion since Christmas and even genuine chaos from the Coalition evokes yawns.

  12. The journos who are doing what a government authority should be doing – checking politicians’ citizenship status – seem to be concentrating on ministers or others of high profile. The midden will hit the windmill when they turn their attention to holders of marginal seats.

  14. C@tmomma says: Tuesday, November 7, 2017 at 9:22 am

    PhoenixRED,
    I reckon the Trump gang will wear the Paradise Papers revelations as a badge of honour. They won’t resign. They’ll just say that they haven’t done anything illegal and they’re just doing what is best for them and their families. Or something equally hokey like that.

    **************************************
    You are probably right C@tmomma – the Josh Friedegg and John Alexanders of the US – Entitled & Born To Rule

  17. CTar1 says:

    Tuesday, November 7, 2017 at 9:38 am

    Donald Trump describes what happened in Texas as ‘a mental health problem of the highest level’.

    ??? ‘The highest level’???

    The words could describe his own situation as seen by others.

    **********************************************************************************

    Joy Behar rips Trump’s response to Texas church massacre: ‘He’s a mental health issue at the highest level’

    After 26 people were gunned down during worship services Sunday, President Donald Trump claimed it was a “mental health issue at the highest level,” instead of a “guns issue.”

    During Monday’s episode of “The View,” co-host Joy Behar questioned if the NRA-endorsed president “is a mental health issue at the highest level.”

    Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) said later joining the women at the debate table. Flake also admitted that there’s no reason to have an automatic weapon, but that semi-automatic weapons should be fine.

    “See, that doesn’t make sense to me,” Behar cut in. “The semi-automatic can shoot, let’s say, 20 shots and the automatic can shoot like 50 shots. You’re still going to kill 20 people. I don’t understand that.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/joy-behar-rips-trumps-response-to-texas-church-massacre-hes-a-mental-health-issue-at-the-highest-level/

  18. adrian

    This blog is like a cheshire cat. The grin never fades, but other parts come and go.
    It’s still more reliable than the Crikey version, tho.

  19. Ha, more genius from Trumble. How much better would his position be now if he’d shown even a modicum of leadership and had the party go through his team’s history when Joyce came up.

    He’d still be in trouble, but at least he could demonstrate that he was on top of the issue and send everyone with question marks over to the HC for adjudication.

    Now he’s still going to have the HC do the job but he looks like the clueless buffoon he is at best, and a shifty fraud (that he also is) at worst.

    It’s again a perfect example of the basic Trumble equation. He has spent his entire life chasing a position he has no ability to perform and has spent no time working out why he wants it beyond his own ego and insecurities. As a consequence nothing he does has any greater purpose than to get him through the day. The disaster he is creating for tomorrow by his expediency is a problem for tomorrow and he’ll just bluff and bluster through that too.

    The natural consequences of that were always going to catch up with him. It really does look like the day of reckoning is fast approaching.

  20. Before a gunman entered a rural Texas church with a ballistic vest and a military-style rifle, killing at least 26 people on Sunday, he was convicted of assaulting his wife and breaking his infant stepson’s skull.

    In 2012, while stationed at Holloman Air Force Base in New Mexico, Devin P. Kelley, 26, was charged with “assault on his spouse and assault on their child,” according to the Air Force.

    “He assaulted his stepson severely enough that he fractured his skull, and he also assaulted his wife,” said Don Christensen, a retired colonel who was the chief prosecutor for the Air Force. “He pled to intentionally doing it.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/06/us/devin-patrick-kelley-texas.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

    How was a person with a history of violence able to own guns?

  21. A former Queensland LNP MP blows the whistle on mudslinging from ‘Canberra’ aimed at Annastacia Palaszczuk.

    Former veteran LNP MP Vaughan Johnson has given the Queensland Premier some unexpected support in the Adani controversy, accusing federal politicians of throwing mud at Annastacia Palaszczuk.

    The long-serving western Queensland conservative politician also said Ms Palaszczuk was right to veto any loan from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF) for Adani’s rail line, and defended the “absolute decency” of her partner, Shaun Drabsch.

    Ms Palaszczuk said she made that decision because LNP senators were planning a smear campaign against Mr Drabsch, who had been a consultant for the loan application.

    Mr Johnson said the story could have come from either side of politics, but he blamed Canberra.

    “We’ve seen now a bucket of mud that’s been thrown from Canberra that’s lobbed right in the face of the election campaign in Queensland — the fingerprints of Canberra are all over this exercise,” he said.

    “I’m an LNP member and I’m loyal to the operation, but there’s one thing I am not loyal to — mudslinging.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-07/qld-election-former-lnp-mp-vaughan-johnson-back-palaszczuk-adani/9124036

  22. Interesting article – the idea of ‘loss aversion’ is something politicians play on quite often:

    Canadians have lived under single-payer for decades and have seen better outcomes. Further, there is the impact of loss aversion. This is a concept in behavioral economics that shows “the pain of losing” something (in this case health care benefits) is “psychologically about twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining” something (like health benefits). Loss aversion was often cited when the public opposed GOP efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act this year.

    and this:
    This approach is typical of a number of mainstream liberal writers at Vox and elsewhere, who seem to do backflips to portray Medicare for All as utopian nonsense, or — as Vox arch-liberal Ezra Klein called the policy — “puppies and rainbows.”

    from: http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/42490-bernie-sanders-goes-to-canada-for-health-care-inspiration

  23. Replacement for X in the senate is back to being a one horse race. What happened to make Storer change his mind?

    Former staffer Rex Patrick will likely replace Nick Xenophon in the Senate after another candidate abandoned his challenge.

    The Nick Xenophon Team party confirmed that former NXT candidate Tim Storer had withdrawn his nomination to take the seat, leading the path open for Mr Patrick.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/candidate-drops-out-of-xenophon-seat-bid/news-story/6f35416d36604f6a0f10acf54521fcbd

  24. poroti

    The Australian’s story is ‘crap’. ‘New doubts’ FMD

    Of course the Customs officer would consider them to be of ‘Hungarian nationality’ as they actually were.

    The fact that a Nazi Hungarian government purported to deprive them of acknowledgement of their origin and travel documents would have been considered notable but irrelevant to the reality.

  25. booleanbach,
    Those same motivations were on full display at the election last year. The Australian electorate appreciate Medicare and don’t mind paying for it. They do mind very much having it taken away from them.

    It wasn’t a scare campaign from Labor about the dismemberment of Medicare, it was the truth about the Coalition’s ideological intentions and jihad against it.

  26. PR,
    Wilbur Ross says ‘Paradise Papers’ reveal ‘no impropriety’.

    See. The gimlet-eyed, rimless glasses one, who has gotten to where he is by being a bloodless heartless person, is right onto it to protect his patch.

  27. Russia Was Helping Trump Just Days After He Entered the 2016 Primary

    A U.S. intelligence assessment earlier this year reported that Russian Twitter accounts began backing Donald Trump as early as six months into his bid for the presidency, but new data shows pro-Trump and anti-Hillary Clinton activity started within weeks of him entering the race.

    In the three-month period after Trump announced his candidacy on June 16, 2015, tweets from Russian accounts pushed praise for him over criticism by close to a 10-to-1 margin, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of 159,000 deleted tweets from 2,752 accounts named during congressional hearings last Wednesday on Russian interference in the election.

    Why Russia supported Trump right off the bat, when many people doubted he would become a viable candidate, remains a mystery, but one possible reason is that the Kremlin used him as a test to see how effective they could be in influencing American public opinion.

    http://www.newsweek.com/russian-twitter-support-trump-started-earlier-once-thought-703400

  28. No one should waste their time expressing a modicum of interest in Josh’s mother’s status at the time she arrived in the country.

    It’s what Josh’s status was in 2016 which is the only relevant question.

  29. CTar1

    A political article in the GG is “crap” , I’m shocked 😉 Not much in it but the continued pot stirring makes it useful.

  30. Where does your comment go?

    Last night I used the expanded comment box to write a comment.

    I hit the [Save and Return] button.

    Poof!!! Gone!!!

    How do I get it back?

    Help!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  37. Kieran Gilbert
    1 hr ·
    Peter Jennings: There is a real risk of war with North Korea breaking out in the next six to nine months #AMagenda

    Jennings is with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

  38. Confessions says: Tuesday, November 7, 2017 at 10:54 am

    Kieran Gilbert
    1 hr ·
    Peter Jennings: There is a real risk of war with North Korea breaking out in the next six to nine months

    ********************************************************

    ….. or when some really bad Trump shit is about to hit the fan and he pulls a “wag the dog” out of his bag of look over there distraction bag

  40. Ctari

    Two Princes are now dead in Saudi

    It is not just a simple power grab.

    Apparently Trump ids backing the current Crown Prince. With that support I doubt it will end well.

  42. Dubious

    [It looks like the Australian doesn’t know the difference between citizenship and nationality.]

    That’s a very good point, for several reasons.

  43. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, November 7, 2017 at 10:54 am

    Kieran Gilbert
    1 hr ·
    Peter Jennings: There is a real risk of war with North Korea breaking out in the next six to nine months #AMagenda
    Jennings is with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

    Is that because of American policy or the fact that Kim is as bat sh!t crazy as Trump or both?

  44. phoenixRed:

    If Trump were any other President I’d be feeling a lot less anxious about a looming war with Nth Korea.

    Then again, if Trump were any other President we wouldn’t BE in this situation in the first place!

  46. Mr X is in real trouble in his attempt to re-enter state politics via the seat of Hartley in Adelaide’s north-eastern suburbs now that former Labor member Grace Portolesi has thrown her hat into the ring.

    When Xenophon announced his intention to stand, one poll gave him a 53-47 lead over Liberal MP Vince Tarzia and another had them 50-50. Another strong candidate with appeal to the large Italian component of the electorate further muddies the waters.

  47. [Laura Tingle‏Verified account @latingle · 3m3 minutes ago

    The REAL fallout from the end of old media. Everyone in our office gets six horses in the office sweep. #sad #melbcupcarnival]

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