Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A slight move back to the Coalition on voting intention, and another finding of a resounding victory for yes in the same sex marriage survey.

As related by The Guardian, Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average result for this week has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 last week. As usual we will have to wait until Essential releases the full report later today for the primary votes.

On the same sex marriage survey, an excessive 86% report having voted, of whom 64% say they voted yes, 31% no, and the rest declining to answer. On the question of support for “an indigenous voice to parliament”, 45% expressed support with 16% opposed, while 47% expressed support for an indigenous treaty, with 16% opposed.

Also featured is the latest in the pollster’s semi-regular series on party attributes, with results similar to those from the previous outing in March. Even the Liberal Party’s rating as “divided” is unchanged at 68%, although it is down six points on being “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, now at 65%. Labor’s biggest change looks to be a six point drop for “moderate”, to 52%. If I understand the report correctly, the Liberal Party is up six on this measure to 53%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,743 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 35
1 2 3 4 35
  1. ‘fess

    Jennings is with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

    Unlike his predecessor, Hugh White, Jennings is well known as an ‘all the way with LBJ type’.

  2. Barney:

    Just saw that 61 people in Vietnam have died as a result of typhoon Damrey. The floods have been particularly treacherous.

  3. ‘information they thought would never get out’
    The sleazy rich and rapacious companies who thought their tax evasion antics were forever held in vaulted inaccessible hidey-holes did not count on the Info Tech age. No-one needs to physically assail a wall and open a safe to carry out hundreds of boxes of documents, anymore.

    Hundreds of thousands of pages of documents are but a tiny chink of data over the intertubes.

    It will come out, it will all come out, and as it does, the greedy, the smart-aleks, and the tax shirkers will do well to remember the last things the aristocrats of France heard; cheering crowds and clacking knitting needles.

    So here’s some advice. For free, even.

    It may be a good strategy, in a risk-assessment way, to start paying your bloody taxes!

  4. daretotread

    Trump tweeted that it would be good hint hint that if Aramco is listed on the stock exchange it should be NY . There has been talk of an IPO being looked at. Perhaps that is behind the current kerfuffle, take out those who oppose/propose the listing of what would be by far the world’s largest company. A pile of $s measuring in the trillions is bound to attract more than a few sharks.

  5. Barney in Go Dau @ #80 Tuesday, November 7th, 2017 – 10:30 am

    Where does your comment go?

    Last night I used the expanded comment box to write a comment.

    I hit the [Save and Return] button.

    Poof!!! Gone!!!

    How do I get it back?

    Help!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I don’t have the expanded comment box or the ABC thingy on my main computer.

    They, the expanded box and ABC whatsis, are present on my secondary computer and, try as I might, I could not get either to do anything. So that if I started a comment in the expanded box and then hit save and return – voila, as you say, Poof!!! Gone!!!.

    If I start in the original box and then go to the expanded box and add text and return I have only the original comment without any addition.

    Therefore, grasshopper, until William or perhaps AR can inform us – DO NOT USE THE EXPANDED BOX.

    On the old Crikey site many posters would hit CTL A and CTL C prior to posting as a backup against site or firewall problems.
    Where does this leave us ❓ Up the creek with only Bill Shorten to blame ❗

    As noted in previous comments it is possible to expand the normal posting box by dragging from the bottom RH corner (dotted triangle).

    As far as I can tell – the ABC thingy does nothing. 😵😵

  6. Hear hear!

    It’s become a sort of twisted American ritual: A lone white male shooter opens fire on a crowd of people. Americans cry out for someone to do something and are met with shoulder shrugs, mumblings about “the price of freedom” and assurances that the people elected to protect them are sending their “thoughts and prayers.”

    Politicians have managed to make a once benign, if not comforting, phrase sound almost profane.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2017/10/03/why-thoughts-and-prayers-is-starting-to-sound-so-profane/?tid=sm_Fb&utm_term=.df23aa00a64b

  7. Trump Jealously Endorses The Authoritarian Jailing Of Political Enemies In Saudi Arabia

    Trump could barely hide his jealousy over the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, rounding up and arresting his political opposition.

    Trump tweeted:

    Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

    I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing….
    ….Some of those they are harshly treating have been “milking” their country for years!

    What Mohammed bin Salman is doing is rounding up his political opposition that may challenge him for the throne. Under the guise of anti-corruption sweep, the crown prince is consolidating his power and removing political opponents. Donald Trump had crowds chanting lock her up at his rallies in 2016, but bin Salman really is locking them up. This is not the kind of behavior that the United States of America should be endorsing, but it is what Trump wishes he could do his opponents in the United States.

    The leaders that Trump idolizes on the world stage are all authoritarians. Trump has praised Putin, the Chinese leadership, and now the Saudi crown prince.

    Trump is an enemy of democracy, and his jealous admiration toward events in Saudi Arabia should worry every American.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/06/trump-jealously-endorses-authoritarian-jailing-political-enemies-saudi-arabia.html

  8. small towner @ #1 Tuesday, November 7th, 2017 – 4:28 am

    Can you fix your FANTASTIC chrome/firefox addon so that it can block (Posted Anonymously) users as well

    The latest version (v0.8.8) does that, although it can only block all anonymous posts or none of them, as there aren’t actually anonymous users. As far as the blog is concerned, every anonymous post comes from the same user (‘user-0’).

    The option to block anonymous posts is under the ‘C+’ icon in the upper right.

    can you supply the source code as I would wish to learn how to do that stuff you do, and do that stuff you do so well

    That should already be accessible if you do:

    Menu -> More Tools -> Developer Tools

    …then go to the ‘Sources’ tab and look under ‘PB Comments Plugin’. Though I’d hardly consider that an example of how to do this stuff well.

  9. Looking at the sample reps nomination form –

    “*Answering ‘Yes’ to the question about eligibility under section 44 of
    the Constitution asserts eligibility.
    Giving false or misleading information is a serious offence.”

    You would have to think the last line has proved to be a very empty threat.

  10. There’s been a bad smell about Serco for ages, and I found the Aust govt very naive when it granted them contracts. Then it handed them care for welfare. Who is the stupid bureaucrat who recommended them?

    [An offshore law firm regarded Serco, a company that runs sensitive government services in Australia and the UK, as a “high-risk” client, expressing concern about its “history of problems, failures, fatal errors and overcharging”, the Paradise Papers reveal.

    Chief among the law firm’s concerns about Serco were allegations of fraud, the cover-up of the abuse of detainees, and the mishandling of radioactive waste.

    The concerns are outlined in the Paradise Papers, based on millions of documents from two offshore service providers and the company registries of 19 tax havens, which were obtained by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and shared by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists with partners including the Guardian.

    They have prompted Serco’s critics to question the appropriateness of having the company provide critical services on behalf of the Australian and UK governments.

    Serco runs 11 of Australia’s onshore immigration detention centres, including on Christmas Island, and is regularly contracted for defence projects.

    It has been asked to provide 250 staff to Australia’s troubled phone support system for welfare recipients, and will build and run the country’s largest private prison, in Grafton, New South Wales. Elsewhere, it runs private prisons in Western Australia and Queensland, provides non-clinical services in hospitals and is building Australia’s next Antarctic discovery vessel, or icebreaker, which it will go on to operate.]

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/06/serco-a-high-risk-client-with-history-of-failures-offshore-law-firm-found

  11. Air Force Mistake Allowed Texas Gunman To Buy The Weapon He Used To Kill 26 People

    Twenty-six Americans, many of them children, might be alive today if not for an unimaginable oversight by the U.S. Air Force.

    A new report on Monday shows that Texas gunman Devin Patrick Kelley was never added to a database that would have prevented him from purchasing a firearm.

    According to the Huffington Post, “The Air Force failed to record the Texas church shooter’s domestic violence conviction in a federal database that would have kept him from buying a gun.”

    In other words, the weapon Kelley used to kill 26 individuals during a church service on Sunday was bought legally, no questions asked, despite the assumption by many that his military discharge would have prohibited the sale.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/06/air-force-mistake-allowed-texas-gunman-buy-weapon-kill-26-people.html

  12. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, November 7, 2017 at 11:19 am

    Barney:

    Just saw that 61 people in Vietnam have died as a result of typhoon Damrey. The floods have been particularly treacherous.

    Unfortunately a fact of life in that part of Vietnam.

    Huge disparity in wealth and as a result also in construction standards.

    Add to that the fact the Central Highlands are quite close to the coast and you can get a lot of water coming down the rivers very quickly.

    All adds up to potential trouble which repeats itself seemingly every year typhoon or no typhoon.

    Fortunately the typhoon was north of us and we didn’t even get much rain and just had a couple of cold days (under 30).

    We’ll probably only see some flooding along the river in the next day or so but that’s not unusual at this time of year.

  13. a r

    Somehow we’ve lost the auto

    again, and the (Block) to identified users has disappeared.
    Is it because someone’s working on the blog, or is it just happenstance?

  14. KayJay,

    The expanded comment box works well for if you then [Submit Comment];

    it’s only the [Save and Return] button that has caused me any issues and I would advise people to avoid.

    Edit:

    The above comment was done in the expanded comment box.

  15. AR if you are around, I seem to have found another issue which I am not sure if it lies with C+ or something else. I have been unable to get past comment #65, so will see hat this comment does.

  16. If we take this poll’s data as representative of the population, 64% of 86% is 55.04% of the population voting yes outright. How do you feel about this and your earlier “36%” claims now, Greensborough Growler?

  17. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, November 7, 2017 at 11:34 am

    I’m backing Humidor to win the Melbourne Cup but the Red Cardinal might give them a bit of a touch up.

    Is Think Big running this year? 🙂

  18. Poroti

    That is all true but from the little bit I have found (sources seem scarce) it is a bit more than just Armco.

    Trump (Kushner) it seems are pretty friendly with this new young firebrand Crown Prince whereas the old guard Republicans (and possibly Democrats) were close to the previous rulers (Abdullah)

    Mind you I think it is more than just the USA in the mix, The following are pieces of the jigsaw but now quite sure how they all fit together. Not in any particular order.

    2 Rivals of the prince have died “accidentally”

    Crown Prince hates Iran and Yemen

    Crown prince opposed Qatar also and Al Jazeera

    Crown Prince (or predecessors) went along with the US plan to slash the oil price in order to burn Russia. This did not work as planned and Saudi finances too a huge hit

    King just went to Russia and agreen to buy military hardware from them!!!

    Resignation of the Lebanese PM who bizarrely (given australia today) is apparently a dual citizen. He gave his resignation speech in Saudi, reportedly under pressure from the Saudi Crown Prince.

    Syria and the power balance

    Iraq power balance

    Lebanon power balance

    Israel – seems to be very close the the new Crown Prince and there was a recent very unusual visit to Israel by some senior Saudi.

    Sale of Aramco

    Confiscation of the extremely valuable assets of the arrested Princes

    Trump threats against Iran (shared with Saudi)

    The losing war in Yemen

    The supposed Yemeni/Iranian missile

    I am sure there are more that I have not found yet.

  19. Mr Newbie says:
    Tuesday, November 7, 2017 at 11:46 am

    We should find out today how many forms had been returned to Aust Post by last Friday, giving a closer idea of final participation.

  20. The Trump administration is up to its neck in Russians

    The number of Russian connections to President Trump’s campaign and to his administration should stun and worry even the most credulous Republicans. We have never seen such a multiplicity of connections to a hostile foreign power and lack of transparency in a presidential campaign or administration — nor have we ever had a campaign in which Russians interfered in such a widespread and deliberate manner.

    “The constant deception and lying from this administration when it comes to Russia makes it abundantly clear that they have something to hide,” says Bergmann. “It also raises real questions about whose interests they are actually representing — theirs? The Russians’? It certainly seems the American people come last in that order.”

    And with all this, we still don’t know the truth about Trump’s own direct financial ties, if any, to Russia because he will not disclose his tax returns or provide a full accounting of his businesses. Is there any doubt why Trump’s business deals should be investigated? If he’s actually free from Russian connections, he might be unique in this administration.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/11/06/the-trump-administration-is-up-to-its-neck-in-russians/?utm_term=.aed1d3d99ff2

  21. CNN Poll: Trump approval at new low as Russia concerns grow

    Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at its lowest point in CNN’s polling as concerns about contacts between Trump’s presidential campaign and Russian operatives have grown sharply in the wake of the first indictments from the special counsel investigating Russian meddling in the US election.

    Overall, just 36% say they approve of the way Trump is handling his job as president, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, worse by one percentage point than Trump’s previous low of 37%, reached in October. Disapproval has also reached a new high at 58%, with nearly half (48%) saying they strongly disapprove of the way the President is handling his job.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/11/06/politics/cnn-poll-trump-approval-russia-concerns/index.html

  22. For what it is worth the smell of war is with Iran NOT NK.

    I suspect that the Chinese and Russians have said “not on your nellie” so the war mongers are looking elsewhere.

    Now on THIS one I will blame trump, rather than Clinton

    Hope youse all is happy.

  23. Dtt,
    It’s always been Trump who was more likely to go to war.

    He’s tanking in the polls, as expected, due to the fact that his statecraft is non-existant and he has surrounded himself with generals. Also the only foreign leaders he respects are Authoritarian strongmen who regularly engage in Human Rights abuses. Of course Trump’s always been on a path to take America to war. He has no other way to try and improve his polls.

  24. bemused,
    I, unlike you it seems, have a sense of fun and indulge myself once a year by putting a small bet on the Melbourne Cup. Money is not that important to me that I have to save every last cent. And, I may even make some!

  25. Bah humbug bemused 🙂

    I can always make money from the cup. Owners & trainers send me money if I threaten to back their horse.

    Thinking of George Pell I think I’ll ruin Red Cardinal’s chances today.

  26. kevjohnno @ #134 Tuesday, November 7th, 2017 – 12:24 pm

    Bah humbug bemused 🙂

    I can always make money from the cup. Owners & trainers send me money if I threaten to back their horse.

    Thinking of George Pell I think I’ll ruin Red Cardinal’s chances today.

    I have always been incredulous about how my whole day is disrupted by that silly horse race.
    And a public holiday for a horse race??? The rest of the world must think we are nuts.

  27. Wish we got a public holiday for it. Still it’s always been an acceptable excuse for a long lunch with no hassle from the boss.

  28. What will be really interesting if John Alexander is forced to a By-election in Bennelong is that we will likely see the re-emergence of the odious Peter Hendy to run in his stead.

    Labor should thus be readying Jason Yat Sen Lee to run against him. And win, of course!

  29. Public Holiday’s should just be for fun. We shouldn’t have to pretend we have worthwhile reason for them. As long as it’s done in moderation sprinkling the year with few fun days seems good for people.

  30. A rather unkind comment on the Guardian web-site on yet another Murphy Mal buys himself more time article:

    ‘You can’t help yourself can you Ms Murphy? Every hair brained scheme and announcement Trumble makes, there you are saying “he’s done it, reset the agenda and now he has clear air” only for it all go tits up. He proposes that all members of parliament sign a declaration stating there nationality and if they meet the provisions of S44. FFS!!!!THEY ALREADY DO ON THE FEKKING NOMINATION FORM YOU BRAIN DEAD MORON!!!’

  31. Just got a robocall, purporting to be from Centrelink, saying that I need to apply for an increase in my pension. Didn’t say who in the household this applied to, and noone here is on a pension. Also talked about letters being sent – again, nothing.

    Seems like a hoax, so beware.

  32. kevjohnno
    Looking at the sample reps nomination form –
    “*Answering ‘Yes’ to the question about eligibility under section 44 of
    the Constitution asserts eligibility.
    Giving false or misleading information is a serious offence.”
    You would have to think the last line has proved to be a very empty threat.

    Nah, not empty threat,
    if you give misleading info you can stay in parliament until you are found out,
    when you are found out you can continue drawing a salary, including a minister deputy pm salary, and the added perks of TA, make decisions etc, until the court riles you can no longer sit.
    when the court so holds you then have to leave but not pay back any salary, superannuation or other perks,
    after you leave you can recontest once you did what you should have done in the first place and blame out of date laws for you not doing what you should have done in the first place.
    if you dont recontest you can expect appointment to a government board and or role paying in excess of $300,00 a year.

    How can you view that as an empty threat?

  33. zoomster:

    I had an email yesterday purporting to be from a courier service I’ve never heard of telling me I have a parcel for collection. To collect I had to send my name, address and copy of either drivers licence or passport back to them.

    I wonder how many people would unthinkingly respond to such an email. Suffice it to say I deleted it.

  34. For years there was a stream of horror stories about Serco flowing from their UK outfit so it gave me a v. large WTF! that our government saw fit to bring the bustards here.

  35. Adam Schiff Nails Trump As Carter Page Admits To Meeting High Level Officials In Russia

    Rep. Adam Schiff, the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, put another nail in Trump’s coffin after Carter Page admitted that he not only met with high-level officials in Russia but that he also notified his supervisors on the Trump campaign about the meeting.

    During many public appearances prior to his November 2, 2017 testimony before the House Intelligence Committee in open session, Carter Page characterized his July 2016 trip to Russia as a private one in which his interactions with Russian individuals were largely confined to the ‘man on the street.’ In his testimony, however, he was forced to acknowledge that he communicated with high level Russian officials while in Moscow, including one of Russia’s Deputy Prime Ministers. He also admitted notifying the fact of his meetings to his campaign supervisors. Additionally, Page detailed other conversations he had with senior Trump campaign officials, including now-Attorney General Sessions, making clear that senior campaign officials were informed of his Moscow trip.

    There are two important takeaways from Page’s testimony. The Trump campaign knew about and had blessed Page’s trip to meet with Russian officials, which means that the plausible deniability of blaming a few rogue actors inside the campaign has gone up in smoke, and if Jeff Sessions knew about the meetings, the revelation means a whole new world of trouble for the Attorney General. The knowledge of the meetings will add another layer to the lies that Sessions has told Congress.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/06/adam-schiff-nails-trump-carter-page-admits-meeting-high-level-officials-russia.html

  36. He proposes that all members of parliament sign a declaration stating there nationality and if they meet the provisions of S44. FFS!!!!THEY ALREADY DO ON THE FEKKING NOMINATION FORM YOU BRAIN DEAD MORON!!!’

    Ah, but Adrian the libs have form with forms and know what they are doing.

    NSW lib candidates are required to sign stat decs in regard to their candidate bid.
    Signing a false stat dec can incur all sorts of prosecutions.

    this was alleged for the recent north shore candidate who allegedly signed false stat decs, however in a welcome surprise the stat dec form was found to be an outdated form and thus no action could be taken as a “false stat dec” was not declared.

Comments Page 3 of 35
1 2 3 4 35

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *