Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A slight move back to the Coalition on voting intention, and another finding of a resounding victory for yes in the same sex marriage survey.

As related by The Guardian, Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average result for this week has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 last week. As usual we will have to wait until Essential releases the full report later today for the primary votes.

On the same sex marriage survey, an excessive 86% report having voted, of whom 64% say they voted yes, 31% no, and the rest declining to answer. On the question of support for “an indigenous voice to parliament”, 45% expressed support with 16% opposed, while 47% expressed support for an indigenous treaty, with 16% opposed.

Also featured is the latest in the pollster’s semi-regular series on party attributes, with results similar to those from the previous outing in March. Even the Liberal Party’s rating as “divided” is unchanged at 68%, although it is down six points on being “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, now at 65%. Labor’s biggest change looks to be a six point drop for “moderate”, to 52%. If I understand the report correctly, the Liberal Party is up six on this measure to 53%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,743 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 35
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  2. Cat

    Please stop being so bloody ignorant.

    Happy to engage politely but ffs stop commenting ignorant stuff.

    There are currently 4 powers that the USA sees as existential threats and WOULD go to war with if they thought they could win. This is as true of Trump as it is of Clinton, of Obama and Bush and Gore and even Sanders. These four are:

    Russia obviously – nuclear power, huge land mass,long term enemy, resource rich, growing in strength. Problem for the USA is the same as for Napoleon and Hitler. It is bloody cold and the Russian fight back. Therefore land based invasion next to impossible. They also have nukes. so to go to war with Russia the USA needs to either keep the conflict very low key and no possible risk of nuclear escalation OR strike first with overwhelming nuclear force and obliterate Russia. Trouble is that Russia has nuclear armed Subs so even if they obliterate Russia with nukes a few retaliatory strikes would probably get through and take out a US city or three. The US strategy has been for the last 40 years to undermine the Russian economy so it is no longer a threat, This worked brilliantly in the 1980s but does not seem as effective now. Conflict points RIGHT NOW, Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, North Korea, Baltic. Chief proponents of war with Russia: Clinton and the Democrats, large sections of the military. Cautious – Kissinger, Obama,

    China too obviously. Rising economic and now military power. Clear and present threat to US hegemony in the pacific and increasingly eurasia. Economic power house with potential to damage the US economy. Rapidly expanding its military strength. Much hatred in the US from the Bannon types, largely because of the manufacturing stuff (scratch the surface here in Australia and you will find this too). Problem is that it too has nukes, but also it is such a key trading partner that any attacks risk economic chaos. With a huge population it would be next to impossible to nuke it into oblivion without destroying the entire world. It would also lead to destruction of key US allies eg South Korea and Japan (and Darwin). Conflict points right NOW: North Korea, South China sea. Emerging conflict points – Straits of Malacca, Pakistan, Middle East (yes really).

    North Korea: This is a long standing battle but is NOT a conflict in its own right but simply a proxy for undermining China and to an extent Russia (see above)

    Iran: Largely because of its oil and its proximity to Russia, Iran has long been the target of covetous US military eyes. Iraq and Syria were sorta Iran proxy wars. add to that the Iran hatred of two key US allies Israel and Saudi and you have all the ducks in a row for attack. Problem is that Iran does have a capable military and also has terrain that is not invasion friendly. additionally with Russia on its border it is almost certain that any attack of Iran would be resisted by Russia, if not directly certainly indirectly. Proponents of are with Iran: Trump, the whole Israeli faction, Tillerson and other oil magnates, Saudi and Israel lobbies. Cautious Clinton and the US military.

  4. ‘Fox News host Ainsley Earhardt asserted on Monday that the dozens of people killed at a church in Sutherland Springs, Texas had gone to the right place to be shot because they were close to Jesus at the time of their death.

    “We’ve been reporting this shouldn’t happen in a church,” Earhardt said during an interview with Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R). “But I was downstairs talking with some people that work here that we all talk about our faith and we share the same beliefs. We were saying there’s no other place we would want to go other than church.”

    “Because I’m there asking for forgiveness,” she continued. “I feel very close to Christ when I’m there. So, I’m trying to look at some positives here and know that those people are with the Lord now and experiencing eternity and no more suffering, no more sadness anymore.”’

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/fox-news-host-says-church-is-the-best-place-to-get-shot-theres-no-other-place-we-would-want-to-go/

    1. If I get shot, I want it to be in a world class hospital.

    2. If death is so wonderful and life so crappy, why don’t religious people just accept it? The ones I know don’t seem in any hurry to be dead.

  5. Trog Sorrenson @ #36 Tuesday, November 7th, 2017 – 9:07 am

    South Australia’s stunning transition to consumer-powered grid.

    Hmm. I would encourage anyone interested to refer to the original source article, rather than read RenewEconomy’s massively distorted nonsense:

    http://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/SA_Advisory/2017/South-Australian-Electricity-Report-2017.pdf

    Far from being a “stunning transition” to “consumer-powered”, the article confirms that solar PV remains a very minor player in the SA market, that even though demand is declining the market is still at elevated risk of failing to meet demand in the coming year, that growth in small solar PV in SA is expected to remain slow and linear through the next 10 years (see for example figures 5, 11 or 12) and that the amount of new solar PV generation of any type (small or large) will continue to be dwarfed by the amount of existing gas generation and new wind generation (by about 3 to 1 in both cases).

    Now, I suppose some of this gas and wind generation may indeed be “consumer-powered” but I suspect local planning laws may have something to say about that.

  8. Oh and by the way I could obviously write the same sort of analysis from the perspective of Russia or China. They too would probably want to go to war if they thought they could win. It is a bit irrelevant at the moment because the US is stronger and neither would contemplate deliberately starting a conflict, although they would react if one starts and poses a threat.

  11. Zoomster

    Me thinks the Fox News host is talking crapola. They obviously believe this sort of assessment is perfect for the type of audience they have. Imagine this sort of observation being spouted generally. People would be mocking them.
    Everyone I spoke to about this latest carnage, had the same response.
    Wtte “Obvioulsy these people being in church praying to God didn’t do them any good”

  12. Dtt,
    We’ll see who the ignorant one is soon enough. Plus I still assert that Trump WILL cast around for a war to increase his poll figures.

    Especially if the Republican Party remain the craven Trump cucks that they are so obviously now and don’t grow a collective pair, a spine and some ethical standards and impeach the vainglorious bastardized!

  14. [Adam Gartrell‏Verified account @adamgartrell · 3h3 hours ago

    Experts say John Alexander’s father could not have renounced British citizenship before 1949. Records show he did not do it after 1949.]

  15. ‘Oh and by the way I could obviously write the same sort of analysis from the perspective of Russia or China.’

    I see. Some semi random thoughts hobbled together on a blog is now analysis.

    Much the same as a couple of people discussing a topic on which they have no real expertise is a debate.

    Much the same as anything at all is an icon.

  17. lizzie @ #163 Tuesday, November 7th, 2017 – 12:28 pm

    [Adam Gartrell‏Verified account @adamgartrell · 3h3 hours ago

    Experts say John Alexander’s father could not have renounced British citizenship before 1949. Records show he did not do it after 1949.]

    Well that demonstrates about how much confidence one should have in politicians who claim to possess an “understanding” that something truly happened.

  18. Gee that html interpreter is hard to beat
    Square brackets don’t work angle brackets do. Ok got it.
    Ok one more time with feeling as someone said recently

    “[”
    “<"

    Yay!

  19. victoria says: Tuesday, November 7, 2017 at 1:21 pm

    PhoenixRed

    I have been following this Twitter feed for round up of Carter Page testimony. This guy is most definitely one weird cat

    https://mobile.twitter.com/aliasvaughn

    *****************************************************
    Thanks Victoria – she often posts on Andrew Laufer’s twitter acct – seems to really know what she is talking about

    I know they say not to judge a book by its cover – but I look at Carter Page and listen to his words – and sorry, but the guy comes over as a total idiot to me – I can’t believe they ‘used’ such a clown – but then again it is Trump Circus after all and the more I see of the Trump Crime Family – Don Jr , Eric, Kushner and wife, Kremlin Barbie Ivanka and Godfather Don Corleone …… the more I am convinced that their whole collective IQ is a negative number ….

  20. So, effectively, Malcolm has designed a scheme for politicians to “out” themselves where the punishment for telling the truth (getting kicked out of Parliament) is worse than the punishment for lying (reference to the privileges committee if you’re caught and a slap on the writs). He’s basically told his own side to lie to stay in power. What a man.
    Now he’s going to spin along the Alexander saga until Barnyard is back.

  21. BiGD

    IIRC last week was their final one before the actual result.

    Which means I’d say that they are opening envelopes and tallying the yes, no and don’t give a rats. It’ll take them a while to do that. Not like on an actual election night as they’ll be doing it without the extra help they usually have then.

  22. Anonymous Posters

    A matter of interest ❗

    Be aware that C+ now has the ability to block all anonymous posters.

    This is not something I will use, nor will I be blocking anybody.

    😵😵😵😵😵 ☮

  25. victoria @ #160 Tuesday, November 7th, 2017 – 1:26 pm

    Zoomster

    Me thinks the Fox News host is talking crapola. They obviously believe this sort of assessment is perfect for the type of audience they have. Imagine this sort of observation being spouted generally. People would be mocking them.
    Everyone I spoke to about this latest carnage, had the same response.
    Wtte “Obvioulsy these people being in church praying to God didn’t do them any good”

    You obviously speak to normal, intelligent people and not American fundy nutters.

    I cannot believe the crap the yanks go on with.

  26. I actually have to agree with Bemused on the Melbourne Cup. I’ve never been able to fathom all the fuss over this astonishingly boring event, or horseracing in general for that matter. It’s always struck me as yet another example of Australia’s inexplicable celebration of institutions that seem to exist primarily to fleece problem gamblers

  28. BREAKING: Carter Page tells House Intel Committee that he met with the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, and called the White House to brief them on his trip.

    This comes after he said he never met Russian officials and the trip was just a personal trip.

  29. Asha Leu @ #175 Tuesday, November 7th, 2017 – 1:52 pm

    I actually have to agree with Bemused on the Melbourne Cup. I’ve never been able to fathom all the fuss over this astonishingly boring event, or horseracing in general for that matter. It’s always struck me as yet another example of Australia’s inexplicable celebration of institutions that seem to exist primarily to fleece problem gamblers

    It also attracts a whole lot of bogans who proceed to engage in the worst excesses of bogan behaviour.
    A kind of a bogan festival.

  30. I should clarify that I don’t actually have anything against gambling – I have the occasional punt myself on occasion, mostly on politics-related things. But horseracing has always struck me as, just like pokies, something that primarily caters to those with actual gambling problems.

  31. Confessions @ #173 Tuesday, November 7th, 2017 – 1:51 pm

    Are there any anonymous posters? And if so how would you know?

    Oh you with the pure heart ❗

    Those of us who use AR’s C+
    would have showing for instance

    Gravatar KayJay (Block)
    Which would indicate a poster who is logged on.
    or
    Gravatar Kayjay (Posted Anonymously)
    Which would, obviously by the aforementioned posting as indicated.

    ☮☮

  32. I have never lost a bet on a horse.
    VP Investments now open for business
    Send all your cash and I’ll take care of it for you.

  36. Zoomster:

    “We’ve been reporting this shouldn’t happen in a church,” Earhardt said during an interview with Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R). “But I was downstairs talking with some people that work here that we all talk about our faith and we share the same beliefs. We were saying there’s no other place we would want to go other than church.”

    “Because I’m there asking for forgiveness,” she continued. “I feel very close to Christ when I’m there. So, I’m trying to look at some positives here and know that those people are with the Lord now and experiencing eternity and no more suffering, no more sadness anymore.”’

    Gee, I wonder if the families of all those who were killed would agree that their loved ones were in the “best place to be” right then.

    Personally, I would prefer to be somewhere where a lunatic *wasn’t* firing at everybody in sight with a semi-automatic.

  38. I mostly post on the phone and I got sick of having to log on even though I select keep me logged on. If I go to my pc I would expect that it will show me as logged on. I have been registered for a while but chose to lurk. I post occasionally when I feel like contributing
    🙄

  39. Those opposed to the Melbourne Cup festival are basically un-Australian.

    A fun bet on a fun day is just that.

    It’s something that enthuses the people and brings us all together as a community.

    Curmudgeons are entitled to their view. But, it’s not a view that gives them credibility in an Oz context and really sees them out of step with the culture that we all hold so dear.

    I’m off to back Humidor and Almandin. Cost will be $20.

  42. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) estimates it has received a total of 12.6 million (78.5 per cent) Australian Marriage Law Postal Surveys – up from 12.3 million forms last week.

    This last weekly update does not include forms received or processed since Friday, 3 November 2017.

    So that’s up 300k since a week before.

    That’s likely to be about all the responses, don’t imagine much will have turned up on the sat-tuesday, and I doubt the “hand in your form in person” thing will get much traction today.

    So I would say 12.7M (79%) is where it’ll end, barring any adjustments made by the ABS.

  43. Are there any anonymous posters? And if so how would you know?
    aqualung and boris are, it says so in bracket after their name.

    I’m not a nomy mouse, I’m BORIS!

  45. Asha Leu @ #179 Tuesday, November 7th, 2017 – 1:58 pm

    I should clarify that I don’t actually have anything against gambling – I have the occasional punt myself on occasion, mostly on politics-related things. But horseracing has always struck me as, just like pokies, something that primarily caters to those with actual gambling problems.

    So if gambling is not curbed or very tightly regulated, how can you address the problem gambler issue?

  46. Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey:

    The beauty of an audit — which, in case anyone was in any doubt, this isn’t — was that it would effectively rule a line under the whole issue politically. Alex Hawke a Greek? “We’re having an independent auditor examine all such issues.” John Alexander a Brit? “That’s a matter for the auditor.” It was a political fix for a government in which everything is falling apart, one that would deliver some breathing space even if it eventually delivered a few more MPs and senators to the High Court. Instead, we have a declaration process that is merely going to provide more ammunition for the media to go hunting for another scalp.

    The muttering about Turnbull now has turned. For much of the year, the sentiment has been that no matter how poorly the government was travelling in the polls, they’d stick with Turnbull. They had no choice — they’d all seen what happened when Labor tried to reverse itself and restore Rudd. Now, amid the citizenship crisis and everything else, the talk is that Turnbull is terminal, that anything is better than this. And his enemies within the party may not have to lift a finger.

  49. My C+ does not work either. I have reinstalled it etc

    Cat
    In case you had not understood, I was agreeing with you. Trump looks like he might start a war with Iran IF his military think it is possible. This was ALWAYS on the cards (read my posts last year). The war preferences were

    Trump: 1 Iran, 2 China, 3 NK, 25 Russia – ie Russia is not on the priority list but the others are

    Clinton: 1 Russia, 2, Syria, 9. NK, 10 China, 100 Iran – ie would beat up Russia at the first realistic , chance, Reluctant to engage with China/NK at least until Russia is sorted, We should befriend Iran because then we get access to Russia.

    That is the single simple analysis that I reached last year. Not much has changes except the following seem relevant:

    1. Russia is stronger than first thought so a few more cold feet
    2. Trump is under more pressure and more crazy so war with Iran has moved up the priority order
    3. Israel and Saudi now seem to run Trump since he no longer has Russia to play with
    4. China is well – China and i think there are a few more cold feet
    5. Russia and China seem to have developed a bit of a cosy relationship such that wiser heads (not Trump) will not try to pick them off one at a time
    6. Russia (and to an extent china) no longer have anything much to gain by playing nice, since US public opinion is so implacably hostile

  50. I once went to the Races at Randwick. Work race day so there was food and drink to partake of. Didn’t put on a bet but thought fuck it and threw $10 on the nose of a 20/1 roughie in the last.

    Came home by about 6 lengths.

    Decided to retire from gambling whilst I was well in front.

    I did tip Vintage Crop in the Cup to my Irish MIL a year or two after that (but kept my money to myself). Decided to retire from tipping whilst I was well in front.

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