BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

Little change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, nor in the latest polls on same-sex marriage, which continue to show an emphatic margin in favour of “yes”.

Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, YouGov and Essential, have done precisely nothing to BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred trend reading, and next to nothing on the primary vote. The seat projection is likewise unchanged, although the Coalition is down one in Victoria and up one in Queensland. There’s a bit more excitement on the leadership ratings, following a poor set of numbers for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll. Full results can be found on the sidebar, where they belong.

Other poll news:

• A further finding from this week’s Newspoll tells a familiar story in relation to same-sex marriage, with yes leading 59% to 35%, out from 56% to 37% a fortnight ago. Of those who have voted, the lead for yes was 62% to 35%. Seventy-six per cent report having voted, which sits very well indeed with the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ recent estimate of 77% as of Friday. A further 10% of Newspoll respondents said they would “definitely” vote, though one suspects a number of those are stretching the definition of “definitely”. Survey forms have to be with the ABS by Tuesday to be included in the count.

• BuzzFeed reports a Galaxy poll conducted for gay rights group PFLAG found 78% support for the proposition that same-sex couples should be “treated the same under the law compared with other couples” in the event of a yes vote in the survey, though I suspect some respondents were unsure what to make of the question.

• A poll on attitudes to indigenous constitutional recognition has been published by the Gilbert and Tobin Centre of Public Law at the University of New South Wales. Its main finding is that 71.7% would support recognition of the history and culture of indigenous peoples in the constitution, and 60.7% support a representative body to advise on issues affecting indigenous people. The poll was conducted by OmniPoll, a firm founded by (among others) former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,231 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  3. Running Firefox on Android can’t see any of the C+ features – have installed the latest version.

    There is an entry on the Firefox three dot menu for C+ which I presume should lead to a dialog to adjust the options but it doesn’t seem to work.

  9. Why have the ABC decided to use a photo of Antony Green, to accompany their story about the Tassie Senate recount, that makes him look like he’s just won Lotto!?!

  25. Citizen – I have C+ working on Windows but was thinking I might turn it off until things settle down. I have an Android Samsung tablet as well as my lap top and it would be good if both worked the same.

  26. Part of the reason Rudd was elected was because people (including doctors wives) were sick to death of the way asylum seekers were treated by Howard.

    But, when Labor’s Tampa sailed over the horizon in the form of Oceanic Viking, Rudd went weak at the knees, and decided to do a Howard, and make out all tough.

    This should have been his moment, when he applauded the humanity of the captain of the Oceanic Viking, and wished them well at offloading their human cargo at Indonesia.

    Instead Rudd went full sail, and said these people would never be given Aus access, and set up a full-scale rebellion by those folk, who then refused to disembark in Indonesia.

    Why did he do that, instead of using the narrative, broken by Howard, that all refugees would be settled in Australia, if they were indeed refugees.

    That’s exactly where Rudd broke Australia’s heart. And where he lost it; and where he lost any entitlement to any future election victory.

    He was lucky to be overthrown by his own party.

    We’re now getting back to that square. Where people are beginning to realise that, while we might not like asylum seekers, we do not want them treated the way the LNP, under Dutton, is treating them.

  28. ratsak

    I know if I wanted an informed opinion on a constitutional issue Mitch Fifield is the first name that would pop into my head.

    If I wanted to know about communications or the NBN I wouldn’t ask Fifield!

  33. Morrison on 7:30 going on about how much it would cost to have an RC into the banks … after their ‘get Shorten’ RC …

    So did the interviewer bring up the obvious point…so why do you think you can afford $65 Billion of Corporate Tax Cuts!?!

    Paul Krugman has got those damned Coorporate Tax Cuts dead to rights:

    * IS A LOUSY TAX CUT REALLY WORTH ALL THIS? Paul Krugman notes that those who will benefit from Trump/GOP tax cuts already are so rich that they won’t really notice their impact, and asks whether it’s really worth the destruction that Trump has unleashed:

    ‘The G.O.P. policy agenda of rewarding the wealthy at the expense of the poor and working class would be vile even if tax cuts would make the rich ecstatic. The party’s willingness to turn a blind eye to corruption with a hint of treason would be horrifying whatever the motivation. Still, there seems to me to be an extra dimension of awfulness to the whole situation once you realize that all this betrayal serves no real purpose, not even a bad one.’

    But wait, what about the explosion of economic growth and sudden corporate willingness to hand over newly untaxed profits to workers that these tax cuts will surely unleash?

  35. Hmmm have all sorts of 404 problems trying to get to the new site with Firefox / Win10. Microsoft Edge seems to be working. Actually first time I’ve used it.

  37. One of my biggest disappointments about Rudd was how he spat the dummy as F/M while overseas and stormed home to Australia, so I don’t think Turnbull should do anything dramatic until he returns to Australia.

    However, he really has only one honourable course when he returns – to advise the Governor General to dissolve the HoR and go to an election. The behaviour of senior ministers and other office holders has become so bizarre and deficient in responsibility to the country that for him to continue to head this government would be totally irresponsible.

  41. Oh, hello, everybody!

    I wondered where it had all got to — first I got ‘PB is undergoing maintenance’ and then it had just vanished from the ether all together.

    Thanks, William, for the email!

  42. I’m using both a win 10 desktop and a Galaxy S2 Tablet both running Chrome and I’m having no problems yet except for post numbering. What a revelation !

  47. citizen,

    The main stream journos couldn’t pick their nose when pontificating about the alleged rage of the average voter about certain issues.

    We often get told about burning issues, forks in the road and resonating disatisfaction. I suppose it helps to sell news space.

    It’s all a Nostrodamus issue. Lots of muttering, throwing paper in the air and then making generalised assertions based on their limited knowledge.

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