BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

Little change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, nor in the latest polls on same-sex marriage, which continue to show an emphatic margin in favour of “yes”.

Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, YouGov and Essential, have done precisely nothing to BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred trend reading, and next to nothing on the primary vote. The seat projection is likewise unchanged, although the Coalition is down one in Victoria and up one in Queensland. There’s a bit more excitement on the leadership ratings, following a poor set of numbers for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll. Full results can be found on the sidebar, where they belong.

Other poll news:

• A further finding from this week’s Newspoll tells a familiar story in relation to same-sex marriage, with yes leading 59% to 35%, out from 56% to 37% a fortnight ago. Of those who have voted, the lead for yes was 62% to 35%. Seventy-six per cent report having voted, which sits very well indeed with the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ recent estimate of 77% as of Friday. A further 10% of Newspoll respondents said they would “definitely” vote, though one suspects a number of those are stretching the definition of “definitely”. Survey forms have to be with the ABS by Tuesday to be included in the count.

• BuzzFeed reports a Galaxy poll conducted for gay rights group PFLAG found 78% support for the proposition that same-sex couples should be “treated the same under the law compared with other couples” in the event of a yes vote in the survey, though I suspect some respondents were unsure what to make of the question.

• A poll on attitudes to indigenous constitutional recognition has been published by the Gilbert and Tobin Centre of Public Law at the University of New South Wales. Its main finding is that 71.7% would support recognition of the history and culture of indigenous peoples in the constitution, and 60.7% support a representative body to advise on issues affecting indigenous people. The poll was conducted by OmniPoll, a firm founded by (among others) former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,231 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  1. Mr newbie,

    What’s ignorant about the words ‘lifestyle choice”?

    Sexuality may or may not be a lifestyle choice depending on the expert you use to rationalise the argument.

    But partnering with someone else certainly is a lifestyle choice.

  4. a r @ #187 Thursday, November 2nd, 2017 – 5:51 pm

    KayJay @ #180 Thursday, November 2nd, 2017 – 4:40 pm

    Bert says:
    Thursday, November 2, 2017 at 5:35 pm

    The worst part of the migration is, I only changed to Firefox a few weeks ago, found AR’s plugin, addon or whatever it is and now I’m back to square one….sigh

    Never mind. Firefox still fine and AR I believe is working on C+ for this site.
    We will do just fine until then.
    😜😜 ☮✌

    The update is already in-flight. Your browser should auto-update to plugin version 0.8.x over the next few hours. You may need to re-enable the extension (because the page URL has changed). Then just refresh the page.

    BK

    With Chrome I checked the “More Tools” – “Extensions” and Unchecked then Re-Checked “Enable”. Updated itself.

    With Firefox may be a little while yet.

  7. BK

    With Chrome I checked the “More Tools” – “Extensions” and Unchecked then Re-Checked “Enable”. Updated itself.

    With Firefox may be a little while yet.
    Just updated in Firefox , seems to be working OK.

  10. GG:

    “Sexuality may or may not be a lifestyle choice depending on the expert you use to rationalise the argument.”

    When did you decide to suppress your gay urges and (I assume) choose to be heterosexual?

  11. Oh good, I’ve just noticed the page numbers start with 1 and increase, instead of the current one being 1 and constantly adjusting as the count increases as it use to be on… what was it called? Gosh? Golly?
    So if you bookmark something it will keep pointing to the same page of comments – yay! Goodonyer Will, and WordPress.

  12. grimace
    I tried opening a new window and got a message about permitting enabling C+, checked giving permission and now it works. Might be worth a try.

  16. Just uninstalled PB Comments plugin for Chrome. Reinstalled – now running version 0.8.2.

    It hasn’t made a scrap of difference. The site and comments appear exactly as they were without the plugin running.

    No comment numbers and no quote function.

  17. The nature/nurture argument regarding sexual preferences has plenty of for and against commentators and research. This is not a controversial or ignorant statement.

    That you have a particular view on the topic doesn’t eliminate the fact that there are different views on the topic.

  20. Well, I think that’s a problem with the new site, and I hope it doesn’t trip up BK tomorrow morning, but I have tried 3 times now to post a link to a WashPo article and each times I have all I end up doing is staring at a white screen! I can’t even refresh the page to bring anything up from prior to posting the link.

    I’ll try one last time and if it happens again then I will need to yell ‘Halp!’

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2017/10/31/trump-and-his-allies-are-laying-the-groundwork-for-a-saturday-night-massacre/?tid=pm_opinions_pop_test&utm_term=.8c621b4c26ba

  26. BK

    As mentioned above, I unistalled, reinstalled, refreshed the page and got nothin’.

    I posted a comment, and hey presto, the functions reappeared.

    Don’t know why, don’t know how. It just happened.

    I hope after you commented the functions are back for you as well.

    Just one problem now. The Leave a reply box is at the bottom of the page, however if you hit preview, the preview actually appears at the top of the page. This means you’ve got to scroll to the bottom again to edit and/or submit.

    Early days as yet, and I’m sure any bugs will be worked out in due course.

  27. I don’t believe for one moment the PM didn’t know about Parry’s citizenship conundrum… particularly given the magnitude of such a revelation in the current clime of government chaos and misfortune, but that’s just me. If I’m wrong and it IS true (that he didn’t know) then clearly the head of the snake has already been severed and it’s demise is imminent.

  29. AR,
    Many thanks – it is all working well for me using Firefox with C+ Version 0.8.2 (i.e. the same as it was on Crikey yesterday).

  32. It’s Fifield.

    Andrew Probyn‏Verified account @andrewprobyn 7m7 minutes ago
    More
    #BREAKING Cabinet Minister Mitch Fifield has told @abcnews Stephen Parry told him a few weeks ago about his dual citizenship concerns

  34. For reasons I certainly can’t understand, I’ve got the numbered comments, but not the Load More option.
    I guess I’ll also wait to see what happens.

  36. I see that having “recent comments first” ticked in the options it alleviates the preview window at the top as the “leave a reply” box is also at the top.

    Having to scroll down to see earlier comments though is counter intuitive to me though. I loike too scroll down and see the conversation as it unfolds.

    Minor quibble I know, however if AR can possibly have the preview box underneath the reply box for those of us that like to scroll down rather than up, it would be much appreciated.

  39. #BREAKING Cabinet Minister Mitch Fifield has told @abcnews Stephen Parry told him a few weeks ago about his dual citizenship concerns

    What a bunch of clowns.

  40. CTar1 @ #225 Thursday, November 2nd, 2017 – 5:44 pm

    I tried disable/enable – no change. I’ll just wait and see what happens.

    Make sure you have the ‘Override HTML Comments’ option enabled in the settings section:

    C@tmomma @ #232 Thursday, November 2nd, 2017 – 5:49 pm

    If I have C+ in my address bar space, will it automatically update, or do I have to go to the Chrome store too?

    It should automatically update, but because the blog’s URL has changed you might have to re-enable it.

  45. Thanks AR

    Both Firefox and Chrome OK with C+.

    Site now extremely usable.

    Time for tea and then to get my Tablet and Phone functioning with the new site.

    😵😵

  46. I wonder if the problems people are having with Chrome is because they’re on the 32 bit version of the program. I’m running the 64 bit, and apart from the preview box appearing at the top of the page, everything is tickety-boo.

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