Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, YouGov and Essential, have done precisely nothing to BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred trend reading, and next to nothing on the primary vote. The seat projection is likewise unchanged, although the Coalition is down one in Victoria and up one in Queensland. There’s a bit more excitement on the leadership ratings, following a poor set of numbers for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll. Full results can be found on the sidebar, where they belong.
Other poll news:
• A further finding from this week’s Newspoll tells a familiar story in relation to same-sex marriage, with yes leading 59% to 35%, out from 56% to 37% a fortnight ago. Of those who have voted, the lead for yes was 62% to 35%. Seventy-six per cent report having voted, which sits very well indeed with the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ recent estimate of 77% as of Friday. A further 10% of Newspoll respondents said they would “definitely” vote, though one suspects a number of those are stretching the definition of “definitely”. Survey forms have to be with the ABS by Tuesday to be included in the count.
• BuzzFeed reports a Galaxy poll conducted for gay rights group PFLAG found 78% support for the proposition that same-sex couples should be “treated the same under the law compared with other couples” in the event of a yes vote in the survey, though I suspect some respondents were unsure what to make of the question.
• A poll on attitudes to indigenous constitutional recognition has been published by the Gilbert and Tobin Centre of Public Law at the University of New South Wales. Its main finding is that 71.7% would support recognition of the history and culture of indigenous peoples in the constitution, and 60.7% support a representative body to advise on issues affecting indigenous people. The poll was conducted by OmniPoll, a firm founded by (among others) former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy.
Good Afternoon Bludgers 🙂
I knew if I went away and came back all would be revealed!
The new digs aren’t bad. I agree that comment numbers would be nice.
Finally, may I just offer a word of advice to Mr Bowe…could he please not do a site redesign too often as I went down to the shops while PB was offline and spent too much money supporting the Economy! 😉
One matter of extreme urgency; can the site’s ‘favicon’ be restored (or at least, set to something non-blank)? I have trouble locating the relevant tab now that the big red ‘C’ is gone.
briefly,
Does Turnbull really want to go down in a screaming heap due to the act of desperation of scheduling a House Only March election!?!
GG, whatever the outcome of the postal survey, surely even you would admit now that your ‘36%’ argument is looking extremely tenuous.
Great! We can go back to feeling depressed again when our absolutely brilliant comment is the last one on the previous page!
C@tmomma @ #153 Thursday, November 2nd, 2017 – 3:48 pm
There will be options, for anyone that wants them.
Hello.
I spent most of today refreshing the page. Didnt realise Mr Bowe had separated from Crikey. Anyway back now to keep you all in line.
How many have got lost in the transition? No sign of Bemused, P1 or dtt. Things are looking up for Pollbludger.
Kevin Andrews building himself up to be the sacrificial goat again?
Right, I finally found the bludgers and William. I was most perplexed to find Pollbludger missing from Crikey.
Yesterday evening while trying to find something of interest on TV my attention was attracted by what turned out for an ad for the “Same Sex Survey — No Campaign”. A lady was speaking quite angrily about Penis/s – Vagina/s which have apparently something to do with the survey currently being conducted.
I am not sure whether everybody has to one of each as I switched channels and turned on my doodah to watch the last two episodes of “Bosch”.
Any advice on this matter would be appreciated.
Thankee all.
😵😵 ☮☮
Roger Miller
LOL. Nothing will stop them from finding us.
Testing
Roger Miller,
Like the proverbial bad pennies, they will be back. 🙂
But then, so am I, so I shouldn’t cast nasturtiums in their direction..
Are climate scientists and greenies going to toss him into a volcano?
Bye Crikey!
(Has someone already used that?)
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, November 2, 2017 at 4:47 pm
briefly,
Does Turnbull really want to go down in a screaming heap due to the act of desperation of scheduling a House Only March election!?!
A half-Senate election cannot be called until August (roughly) 2018.
The talk around Parliament House is the LNP are stuffed; that they know they will not last the distance til late next year let alone until 2019 and that they fear losing control of the House, leaving Turnbull no choice.
My old direct link to Pollbludger still works in Windows 10 and also on my iPhone / iPad, but you cannot link there from Crikey any more.
I can see the Libs in conjunction with NEWS Ltd trying to come up with some confected outrage over some policy or thing the ALP is doing,going to do, might do or thinking of doing, and using it to go to an early election.
Ahhh it’s down the bottom.
Hello.. what’s this jiggerery?
Crikey no yes no eh?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/02/labor-runs-its-david-against-goliath-barnaby-joyce-in-new-england
David Ewings Labor for New England
https://www.facebook.com/EwingsforNewEngland/
I reckon you’d have to drag Trumble out of the Lodge kicking and screaming.
But if he got wind that his numbers were gone (and if his ego would allow him to believe it) he could do what Abbott threatened and call a house only early election. It would fuck up the Libs who he’ll no doubt for all his ills, and also fuck up Labor by forcing them back to another election within 18 months and stick them with a hostile Senate in the meantime.
It would be a real bastard act of course, but that’s just the kind of prick Trumble is.
Mr Newbie,
My argument was always that the postal survey was a “Crock”. Nothing I’ve seen dissuades me from that view. How you can be so pleased to have other Australians approving or disapproving of fellow Australian’s lifestyle choices is something only you can answer. I’m just so pleased to have treated the whole process with contempt.
The 60/60 assertion was based on reasonable estimates of participation and polling at the time. It was only ever meant to be indicative that that particular outcome would not be an overwhelming endorsement of SSM. Recent results show a higher participation rate. However, polls about proportions supporting one side or the other have fluctuated. So, the final outcome you are desperately seeking as some sort of vindication may still elude you.
We’ll all know in a couple of weeks.
Then, the real politicking will begin!
sonar – Or just confected outrage about Labor having policy.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/02/huge-private-sector-investment-puts-paris-climate-target-in-reach-says-report
At least one trillion dollars are being invested globally in ways to reduce the threat of climate change, including renewable power, energy efficiency, and public transport around the world.
The sums involved are likely to make it possible in future for the world’s governments to meet their commitments under the Paris agreement on climate change, provided the investment continues and is directed to the right ends, according to a new report.
The LNP swim against the tide in this as in all else.
ratsak says:
Thursday, November 2, 2017 at 5:25 pm
I reckon you’d have to drag Trumble out of the Lodge kicking and screaming.
But if he got wind that his numbers were gone (and if his ego would allow him to believe it) he could do what Abbott threatened and call a house only early election. It would fuck up the Libs who he’ll no doubt for all his ills, and also fuck up Labor by forcing them back to another election within 18 months and stick them with a hostile Senate in the meantime.
It would be a real bastard act of course, but that’s just the kind of prick Trumble is.
Labor would win a House election in March and call a 1/2-Senate election in August, win that very easily.
The worst part of the migration is, I only changed to Firefox a few weeks ago, found AR’s plugin, addon or whatever it is and now I’m back to square one….sigh
Wowsers.
Have to thank PubXmasTragics for finding William Bowe MkIII.
I wondered what had happened to the Dawn Patrol, then remembered BK cross-posts over the road, et voila an entry here.
So good to be able to read top to bottom.
Just one thing, William, if you’re about. How does one contribute if one does not have a credit card? we like to think we’re the only people in the universe with neither a credit card nor a mobile bloody phone (and no TV, to boot!).
That aside, it’s pretty funny Parry is now claiming he advised a “Cabinet Minister” back in August that he doubts about his citizenship status – and was told to STFU.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch, eh what, old pal.
FMD, these LNPers are a claque of losers.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/02/experts-and-public-disagree-over-plan-to-drug-test-welfare-recipients-polls
And of course we should drug test all the pollies, not just those other welfare recipients taking our tax dollars unlawfully (Joyce, Nash, Parry, etc).
Hopefully Lizzie finds her way here. 🙂
Never mind. Firefox still fine and AR I believe is working on C+ for this site.
We will do just fine until then.
😜😜 ☮✌
GG
“How you can be so pleased to have other Australians approving or disapproving of fellow Australian’s lifestyle choices is something only you can answer.”
Leaving your ignorant “lifestyle choice” comment aside, I have never said I’m “pleased” with this ridiculous survey. I am, however, pleased, that the overall proportion of the voting population (including non-voters) voting yes will no doubt significantly exceed your original ‘36%’ claim. You could at least graciously admit you were wrong on that.
vic
I was going to ask you what happened to your colour?
And, after posting, realised I have none, either.
I did actually see when logging in, a bit about colour, but ignored it in my haste to see if I was still a participant here.
About lizzie, I think a few people on here have her email addy, puffy springs to mind, so hopefully she’ll find out that way.
What a piece of work Malcolm is. He obviously knew Parry was ineligible (Parry told a Cabinet Minister who must have told Malcolm) but now Malcolm criticises him for keeping Schtum. What a lowlife.
Kezza2
the lack of colour is disconcerting. Lol!
Lizzie might just be taking the day off!
@ Ratsak
In 8 Newspoll’s time the L/NP will drag Trumble out of the Lodge kicking and screaming for Labor, and that is making the very generous assumption that nothing else goes wrong between now and then that would result in Trumble being dragged out earlier.
Does the Poll Bludger move mean that we are all dual citizens now?
KayJay @ #180 Thursday, November 2nd, 2017 – 4:40 pm
The update is already in-flight. Your browser should auto-update to plugin version 0.8.x over the next few hours. You may need to re-enable the extension (because the page URL has changed). Then just refresh the page.
The cabinet minister who allegedly told Parry not to worry about citizenship was most probably Brandis who seems to have made his own interpretation of the s-g’s opinion.
Either that or various senior Liberals thought the whole citizenship thing would go away if they wished it so.
@ AR
How are you doing the quotes?
grimace
how many consecutive bad newspolls did Gillard have?
Or silly Rudd, for that matter?
Have either topped the excesses of Abbott and Turnbull?
The msm is still making excuses for them; turds that refuse to be polished. he he he . . .
vic
re lizzie taking a day off. True.
But unlikely.
Two takes on the twitter analysis of SMM that GG linked to:
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham 1h1 hour ago
Be ultra-careful of any method that claims to have predicted Trump win. Unless it predicted he would lose popular vote it’s rubbish.
Peter Brent Verified account @mumbletwits
Btw fwiw Twitter analysis of SSM support, extrapolating to gen population, is a load of garbage.
oops *SSM
AR
Brown Bear (the brains of the outfit chez Kayjay) are very grateful to you for your work.
As I have said previously about Musrum and yourself “I have no idea how you do what you do but I am glad you do it”. I am now setting that to music and will play it loudly and relentless in competition with the dudes across the road (Key of G).
Thank you.
😍😍😍😍
🌞🌞🌞🌞
C@ “I went down to the shops while PB was offline and spent too much money supporting the Economy!”
A very noble pursuit, C@. I used to work with a young bloke who was studying Economics, and on payday he’d say “Gotta go out and help maintain the velocity of money”. Keeps people in employment, doncha know?
Lizzie and others may have encountered the problem I had today. Using Safari, I kept getting “404 page not found” messages until after lunch. Even after I successfully connected, the 404 message appeared once when I tried to move from p1 to p2. Hopefully this is only a temporary problem.
It seems Crikey has removed all reference to pollbludger – it would be nice if they kept a link to this new site for a short while at least.
How can I update to the latest C+ extension?
That’s interesting. My gravatar has migrated in colour.
The Parry story about saying to a senior Lib colleague that he may have dual citizenship way back when but told him to keep schtum is heading up ABC news and now PM.
Hmmm!