BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

Little change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, nor in the latest polls on same-sex marriage, which continue to show an emphatic margin in favour of “yes”.

Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, YouGov and Essential, have done precisely nothing to BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred trend reading, and next to nothing on the primary vote. The seat projection is likewise unchanged, although the Coalition is down one in Victoria and up one in Queensland. There’s a bit more excitement on the leadership ratings, following a poor set of numbers for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll. Full results can be found on the sidebar, where they belong.

Other poll news:

• A further finding from this week’s Newspoll tells a familiar story in relation to same-sex marriage, with yes leading 59% to 35%, out from 56% to 37% a fortnight ago. Of those who have voted, the lead for yes was 62% to 35%. Seventy-six per cent report having voted, which sits very well indeed with the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ recent estimate of 77% as of Friday. A further 10% of Newspoll respondents said they would “definitely” vote, though one suspects a number of those are stretching the definition of “definitely”. Survey forms have to be with the ABS by Tuesday to be included in the count.

• BuzzFeed reports a Galaxy poll conducted for gay rights group PFLAG found 78% support for the proposition that same-sex couples should be “treated the same under the law compared with other couples” in the event of a yes vote in the survey, though I suspect some respondents were unsure what to make of the question.

• A poll on attitudes to indigenous constitutional recognition has been published by the Gilbert and Tobin Centre of Public Law at the University of New South Wales. Its main finding is that 71.7% would support recognition of the history and culture of indigenous peoples in the constitution, and 60.7% support a representative body to advise on issues affecting indigenous people. The poll was conducted by OmniPoll, a firm founded by (among others) former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,231 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  1. One of the Saudi’s arrested is now reported as Bakr bin Laden, Osama bin Ladin’s brother and Chairman of the Binladin construction group.

    This indicates that the arrests are a ‘strike’ against Wahhabism.

    Which is exactly what this Crown Prince says he wanted to do – decrease the influence of the more radical Islamic sects in the country.

  2. Briefly

    I am not responsible for your inability to read between the lines in anything.

    The CBNC article links Saudi, Trump, Aramco, Kushner and the tycoon in jail.

    No it does not make the payback link but the possibility of there being such a payback is politics AO1 (actually junior high school) so it is not too much of a stretch even for the mildly asbergers to recognise this as a POSSIBILITY)

  3. Ctari

    I think it is a strike against Bush the elder, given his closeness to the Bin Laden family and many in the Saudi family. Recall “Bandar Bush” the Saudi ambassador who was so close to GHW Bush that the little shrub was jealous.

  4. Ctari

    It is highly probable that this was a coup that was forestalled. Just who and why is unclear.

    I think on this one might be best to hold of being certain of anything until the middle east specialists fie us a bit of a look see.

    Might know more in the morning.

  5. It looks like this is going to roll on and compete with Brexit scandals (I’m waiting for it to be claimed that David Blunkett groped an eleven year old lad but it was accepted by all that it was an accident 😀 ) –

    British Prime Minister Theresa May’s most senior minister has denied an allegation that police found pornography on one of his computers in the Houses of Parliament in 2008 as the British Government struggles to contain a sexual harassment scandal.

  6. ‘fess

    US politicians have been sucking up to the Saudi’s since the early 1940’s so that there are connections between just about every US federal politician and almost anybody from Saudi Arabia who is counted as influential or rich is no surprise.

  7. FFS!!! Why are people still going on about S44 of the constitution and audits and blah blah blah. On the nomination form there is a bit where candidates declare that they meet the provisions of the constitution if a candidate is found to be in breach of this then impose the fine stipulated, extract any monies paid to them and gaol the fekkers if they don’t repay. In closing can we please leave this audit or whatever bullshite where it belongs, in lala land

  8. dtt

    I think it is a strike against Bush the elder

    I doubt that what George Herbert Walker Bush thinks or says matters much to anyone other historians these days.

    What possible gain could there be in ‘striking’ against him? Nothing would be my guess.

  9. CTar1 says:
    Monday, November 6, 2017 at 12:26 am

    It’s all down to the ‘carbon tax’ making refrigerant too expensive for Saudi Arabian IGA supermarkets to continue trading. (You have to have been posting/reading here for a long while to understand this one!).

    Anything is possible in the febrile imagination of dtt…anything!

  10. Zoomster says:
    Sunday, November 5, 2017 at 9:21 pm

    My father didn’t precisely invent this, but he made it usable —

    Apparently, he spent many hours shooting nails into our concrete patio (no wonder, as my sister says, it leaks…)

    When he’d finally ironed out the kinks, he took it into the CEO’s office.

    Half an hour later, he got called back, and entered to find a significant proportion of the office wall missing.

    “I thought you told me this was foolproof!” thundered his boss.

    “I never said it was idiot proof,” Dad shot back.

    They are one mean piece of kit, I’ve used the big brother of the one in the link. It’d put a 3/8 stud through 1/2 inch thick steel plate and scare the tripe out of anyone within 20 yards when it went off.

  11. Give DTT a wide berth.

    She is perhaps the looniest poster this blog has ever seen (a big call, I know)!

    Her hysterical Putin-apologia is enough to even make a Russian troll blush.

    Do not engage. She’s stark-raving mad.

  12. ‘fess

    Maybe it’s all about the Donald’s envy of Bin Talal.

    Bin Talal apparently owns the London Savoy. A bit classier than Trump’s casino’s with rooms in Atlantic City! 😀

  13. Bert

    [They are one mean piece of kit, I’ve used the big brother of the one in the link. ]

    A favourite thing in with ‘fruit & vegatable transport business’ based in the MIA. A primary back-up used to be a Black & Decker drill – kneecaps being a target!

  14. The BoM accurate tonight.

    They predicted steady rain up to 40mm in Canberra for Monday. That’d be more rain in one go than we’ve had this year.

    Two hours ago I had a look outside and it was dark as the proverbial but still and dry with no sign of rain. Now it’s steadily coming down.

    Bugger! I’ve got a doctors appointment and a blood test scheduled for tomorrow morning and a meeting with an government agency CFO about their financial management system tomorrow arvo.

    An Umbrella day.

  15. CNN doing direct reporting from Saudi Arabia now – ‘Saudi Shake Up – Regional Ripple Effect’.

    They are saying anti-corruption sweep as foreshadowed by new Crown Prince.

    No mention of ‘coup’.

  16. It’s not really a ‘coup’ as the regime hasn’t changed, but is certainly very interesting from the perspective of the number of extreme wahabist’s sidelined…

    The CP has an iron clad grip on the goolies of power.

    What this means for the ‘fracas’ in the ME over Qatar is anyones guess. Allegedly, the CP and Qatar Emir were close friends – not that that means much in the ME.

    The US have certainly disabused Saudi of any ‘invasion’ ideas and, as is commonly discussed on the ground, the fight is really about Qatar eating into the UAE industrial port activity and the UAE royalty not liking the upstart Emir and previously his father. Saudi were really dragged into the argument although Qatars relationship with Iran has rankled.

  17. Trump Can’t Hide On Foreign Trip As Mueller Has Enough Evidence To Charge Mike Flynn

    The fact Special Counsel Robert Mueller has enough evidence to charge Mike Flynn strengthens the obstruction of justice case against Donald Trump.

    NBC News reported, “Federal investigators have gathered enough evidence to bring charges in their investigation of President Donald Trump’s former national security adviser and his son as part of the probe into Russia’s intervention in the 2016 election, according to multiple sources familiar with the investigation. Michael T. Flynn, who was fired after just 24 days on the job, was one of the first Trump associates to come under scrutiny in the federal probe now led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller into possible collusion between Moscow and the Trump campaign.”

  18. Finally, Kellyanne Conway Gets Called Out For Spreading Misinformation By CNN’s Brian Stelter

    When Kellyanne Conway tried to lie and say that the Steele Dossier was completely unverified, CNN’s Brian Stelter called her out for spreading misinformation on his show.

    Conway said, “CNN has been obsessed with this dossier for over a year now, and now that we know that the DNC and the Clinton campaign paid the same firm for said dossier, which is completely unverified, we can’t get you excited.”

    Stelter called her out, “Parts of it have been verified. That is misformation that you’re spreading on my program Kellyanne, and I don’t appreciate it. Much of the dossier, you just said the entire dossier is unverified. That is inaccurate…Pieces of the dossier have been verified, and when you say it’s unverified, you actually mislead the American people.”

    No one is sure what Kellyanne Conway’s job actually is. It appears that her job is to go on television and lie for Donald Trump. Stelter anticipated the complaints that he will get from viewers for booking her on his show. There is value in debunking falsehoods by someone like Conway in real time as they are spoken.

    Kellyanne Conway’s job in the White House is to spread disinformation.

  19. Robert Mueller now has enough evidence to charge Mike Flynn and his son in Russia probe: report

    NBC News reported on Sunday that Special Counsel Robert Mueller has gathered enough evidence to charge former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and his son, Michael G. Flynn.

    According to NBC News:

    Federal investigators have gathered enough evidence to bring charges in their investigation of President Donald Trump’s former national security adviser and his son as part of the probe into Russia’s intervention in the 2016 election, according to multiple sources familiar with the investigation.

    Three sources told NBC that Michael Flynn’s could be charged at the same time as his father.

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Nicolas Stuart says ignorance is no defence for these dual-citizen idiots. A good article.
    The Australian’s Jennifer Oriel says Turnbull’s losing his touch. It’s going from bad to worse she says. Google.
    Adam Gartrell says the Libs/Nats enmity is swelling up. BTW if the Libs install Ian McDonald as president it will be national disgrace.
    Michelle Grattan on Turnbull’s call for citizenship disclosure.
    Urban Wronski declares this to have been Turnbull’s worst week ever.
    Jennifer Hewett writes that the citizenship fiasco is flaying the Turnbull government alive. Google.
    It’s Melbourne Cup week so Stephen Koukoulas has provided a political and economic form guide.
    America is exhausted. The US is tired and somewhat forlorn as it endures yet another bout of painful introspection about its national character and role in the world. In the year since his election Donald Trump has only intensified the cultural crisis that has gripped the country in the past two decades, sapped its energy and brought its calling into question. Google.
    Special Counsel Robert Mueller has collected sufficient evidence to charge Michael Flynn, US President Donald Trump’s former national security adviser, and his son, NBC News reported on Sunday, citing multiple sources familiar with the investigation.

  21. Give Darren a wide berth.

    He is perhaps the most vicious poster this blog has ever seen (a big call, I know)!

    His hysterical Gillard apologia is enough to even make a ALP right wing troll blush.

    Do not engage. He’s stark-raving mad.

  22. We have no place in Australia for “witch hunts” says “Brian Trumble


    RoboDEBT hounds poor battlers ‘eeking’ out an existence on welfare…

  23. Dear Mr A.R.
    Can you fix your FANTASTIC chrome/firefox addon so that it can block (Posted Anonymously) users as well, as i wish to block the #US_election crank whatever he/she appears as THANKS A.R.
    ALSO can you supply the source code as I would wish to learn how to do that stuff you do, and do that stuff you do so well :O) hehe :OP

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