BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

Little change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, nor in the latest polls on same-sex marriage, which continue to show an emphatic margin in favour of “yes”.

Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, YouGov and Essential, have done precisely nothing to BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred trend reading, and next to nothing on the primary vote. The seat projection is likewise unchanged, although the Coalition is down one in Victoria and up one in Queensland. There’s a bit more excitement on the leadership ratings, following a poor set of numbers for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll. Full results can be found on the sidebar, where they belong.

Other poll news:

• A further finding from this week’s Newspoll tells a familiar story in relation to same-sex marriage, with yes leading 59% to 35%, out from 56% to 37% a fortnight ago. Of those who have voted, the lead for yes was 62% to 35%. Seventy-six per cent report having voted, which sits very well indeed with the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ recent estimate of 77% as of Friday. A further 10% of Newspoll respondents said they would “definitely” vote, though one suspects a number of those are stretching the definition of “definitely”. Survey forms have to be with the ABS by Tuesday to be included in the count.

• BuzzFeed reports a Galaxy poll conducted for gay rights group PFLAG found 78% support for the proposition that same-sex couples should be “treated the same under the law compared with other couples” in the event of a yes vote in the survey, though I suspect some respondents were unsure what to make of the question.

• A poll on attitudes to indigenous constitutional recognition has been published by the Gilbert and Tobin Centre of Public Law at the University of New South Wales. Its main finding is that 71.7% would support recognition of the history and culture of indigenous peoples in the constitution, and 60.7% support a representative body to advise on issues affecting indigenous people. The poll was conducted by OmniPoll, a firm founded by (among others) former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,231 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  1. Confessions @ #2148 Sunday, November 5th, 2017 – 10:07 pm


    Made Of Honour is a romcom where the main character is a male maid of honour (MOH) who is secretly in love with the bride he is supposed to kitting out for her wedding.


    Which sounds lots of fun, but is all completely over my head -> stupid dumb face emoji.
    Lights out here – about to drive back to Sydney from Melbourne early in the morning and worried about the rain.

  2. The arrest of this guy, I’m told, could have a big effect on the US Stock Market when it opens tomorrow –

    DUBAI (Reuters) – The detention of Saudi Arabia’s Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, known for his big bets on Citigroup (C.N) and other top Western companies, could have an impact on billions of dollars of investments around the world.

  3. Aqualung @ #2146 Sunday, November 5th, 2017 – 7:03 pm

    Interesting. Don’t know if you’ve caught the various programs on railways on SBS lately. The engineers were very competitive in those days.
    I wish I had kept my old Thomas books.

    My MIL got my son the set for a birthday or Christmas. I was really surprised that they were nothing like the original Thomas series.

  4. I’m old enough to remember steam trains. They were standard on country routes in NSW. When we lived in Newcastle we would occasionally travel by train to Sydney (a bit over 100 miles) to visit relatives. The journey took about 3 hours. It was great fun. I remember the “Newcastle Flyer”. It was hauled by a sleek green locomotive with a pointy nose which had a light in the middle. There were other services called “The Fish” and “The Chips”. Back in Sydney, we’d make an occasional day trip by steam train to Katoomba (Blue Mountains, about 65 miles West).

    I remember sleeper carriages for longer journeys. Some of the carriages looked like something out of an old Western movie. You could see the tracks when you looked down at the WC. A sign said to refrain from using the WC while the train was stopped at a station.

    I don’t think today’s inter-urban services have names.

  5. Grimace I saw something on the older Thomas books and noticed the difference in the drawings too.
    Steve777 the loco you describe sounds like 3801.
    Yes the wcs were interesting in the old carriages.
    Remember doing a trip to Cooma from school in winter. Had footwarmers that cooled at Goulbourn. No heating or ac in those days.
    The last time I replied to Steve777 PB died so fingers crossed.

  6. Confessions

    I am surrised that you use the death of 12000 people to score silly points aginst another blogger, but hey you get your kicks I guess.

    Anyway just read up on monkey pox, nasty but not a big problem for us in Australia. Infectivity is highish but generally requires close contact and the death rate while high is 1/10 not 1/2 like Ebola. also the small pox vaccine is 85% effective, so at a guess many, many health profs as well as older people will have some immunity, so there will be adequate health professionals to cater for any outbreaks and spread will be reduced.

    Creating an effective vaccine will be quite quick i would imagine.

    So problem for health workers in Africa, and worth alerting doctors and hospitals to be careful if anyone has been travelling but probably not a major concern at this stage. However if you are nervous wear face mask while travelling in a plane and cover up well.

  7. Hmm!

    I am not yet sure but it seems quite possible that my predictions of payback for Mueller are coming more dramatically than I had expected. How much pressure will it take on the Saudi Princes to spill dirt on the Clinton campaign and fundraising.

    I had expected payback and Saudi connections were the most obvious. Arrests however seem over the top.

    Anyway as I said I am not yet sure but it is certainly an interesting possibility.

  8. We had a railway line running across the front of our farm. I can remember steam engines (by then converted to diesel rather than using coal) in the mid 60’s hauling fruit and veggies from Griffith on their way to the Sydney markets.

    They only used the old engines as far as Cootamundra where the freight cars were transferred to something a bit faster for the trip on the main line to Sydney.

  9. Aqualung @10:37PM: Ah yes, foot warmers. They had those on the Blue Mountains trains as well.

    …The last time I replied to Steve777 PB died so fingers crossed…”. That wasn’t me. It was Labor’s fault. Or Bill Shorten. Or the unions. Or political correctness. Or climate scientists or Renewables or…

  10. A number of press reports have stated incorrectly that the Senate Presidency always goes to a Liberal when the coalition is in power. Not so. When the coalition came to power in 1949, it didn’t have the numbers in the Senate (which led ultimately to the 1951 double dissolution), and when the new Senate met on 6 July 1950, it re-elected the incumbent Labor President, Senator Gordon Brown. He was followed by Sir Alister McMullin and the Sir Magnus Cormack, but Cormack lost the Presidency in 1974 to Labor’s Justin O’Byrne, when at least one coalition senator voted against him in the secret ballot. It’s worth bearing in mind that the opposition retained the Senate numbers (and Presidency) throughout the period of the Scullin Labor government.

    In recent years the ALP has tended to support the Liberal nominee when the Liberals were in power, but as the ALP lacked the numbers in the Senate anyway, that was just as likely to have been for pragmatic reasons, rather than in pursuance of any alleged convention. Given the circumstances surrounding the departure of Senator Parry, the ALP would in my view be perfectly justified in taking the view that they will support whoever they think is the best candidate, regardless of his or her party.

    Personally, I think it’s entirely possible that Senator Williams could run, and be chosen. That would put the Liberals’ nose mightily out of joint, but that might not worry the Nationals too much at this point. In fact, they might relish the opportunity to prove to the Abetzes of this world that they aren’t just there to be taken for granted.

  11. Re Ebola: there’s a risk management tool called a threat matrix. Threats are estimated according to their probability and impact. What are the threats and what are the impacts will depend upon the context / application. But in any context high probability high impact need immediate action at the highest level. Low probability low impact can be addressed if, as and when they occur. Sensible planning is required for all reasonably predictable threats according to their expected impacts – plans A, B and if necessary C and D.

    So to the Ebola crisis a few years ago. Definitely a high impact if it happened- possibly a 50% fatality rate. Maybe lower in a modern developed economy, maybe 10%, but that is unknown and would be worse than anything we’ve experienced since about 1700. Probability unknown.

    The prudent course would be to err on the side of over-estimating the impact and probability, hoping you’re wrong, but being ready for it if it came to pass. I’d have said the same about climate change in 1987.

  12. “…I’ll be 60 next year”

    That’s rapidly disappearing in the rear view mirror.

    I estimate that I’ve travelled by train (counting a return trip as two – mostly commuting for work / study) about 18,000 times.

  13. CTar1 says:
    Sunday, November 5, 2017 at 11:14 pm

    I’ll be 60 next year and I reckon I’ve been a train passenger less than ten times here in Australia!

    I’ve done countless journeys in cities but only one long one in Oz.

    The joy of train travel in only something I’ve learned to appreciate since I left Oz.

    Whether travelling up and down the Nile in Egypt, the crowded madness of India and Indonesia, the Himalayan foothills of China or the very basic simplicity of northern Myanmar, it really is the best way to take in the countryside and meet people.

    🙂 🙂

  14. Confessions

    I thought it was you getting all hysterical.

    I generally do not get all hysterical about infectious threats but there are some exceptions.

    The key things Confessions are:
    1. Mortality rate if infected
    2. The morbidity rate if infected (and the time taken for recovery)
    3. The infectivity if in contact with the disease
    4. The manner of spread – eg air , touch, food, water
    5. The degree of population immunity
    6. The ease of infection containment
    7. The number of health professionals with immunity able to care for the sick
    8. The nature and quality of available health services
    9. The fundamental health of the population exposed and capacity to ward of the disease (ie the old and young more vulnerable to secondary infections)
    10. The propensity for panic in the community and health professionals.

    If you compare say bird flu, measles, ebola and say this monkey pox on each od these measures in Australia you would have something like (score out of 10 with lowest better)
    Bird flu (1,1,9, air – so 9,5, 6,3,2,1,1)
    Measles (2,3,9,9,3,6,1,1,1,1)
    Ebola (9,8,8,3,10,3,9,1,9 -not a factor for ebola,10)
    Monkey pox (2,4,8,5,4,4,2,1,1,3)

    Now Confessionsr these are not set in stone figures but MYindicative judgment calls as to the propensity for a disease to be managed effectively.

    Hope this helps your understanding a little.

    And ffs do not quibble re scores and numbers. That is NOT the point. These will vary from place to place.

  15. daretotread @ #2156 Sunday, November 5th, 2017 – 9:54 pm


    I am not yet sure but it seems quite possible that my predictions of payback for Mueller are coming more dramatically than I had expected. How much pressure will it take on the Saudi Princes to spill dirt on the Clinton campaign and fundraising.

    I had expected payback and Saudi connections were the most obvious. Arrests however seem over the top.

    Anyway as I said I am not yet sure but it is certainly an interesting possibility.

    You’re connecting Mueller to the Saudis to some sort of vague and unspecified corruption allegations against Hillary?

    I think you’ve well and truly left the reservation with that one.

  16. Steve777 / BiGD

    The only ‘city’ I’ve lived in here in Australia is Canberra. No suburban rail …

    I’ve lived and worked in London a couple of times but was in walking distance of the office and when that includes about a mile and a half of the Embankment I chose to walk almost all of the time. I’ve caught plenty of trains there for other than work purposes to regional areas and of course the Continent. The TGV going south in France a favourite.

    Here most of my 10 train trips have been in Brisbane – my brother lives at Graceville about 5 minutes from the railway line direct to the city.

  17. a r

    You’re connecting Mueller to the Saudis to some sort of vague and unspecified corruption allegations against Hillary?

    I think you’ve well and truly left the reservation with that one.

    I was kinda’ thinking the same …

  18. Well said steve

    Given the very, very, high mortality rate among western health professionals it would seem for Ebola that the death rate of 50%would be pretty much 50% even in western communities – at least initially until they tried out treatment methods.

    The biggest issue in Australia I think would have been to find sufficient volunteers to act as nurses, given the high mortality rate. Even if working in full protective suit, the risk would be high, and probably well above the OHS safety levels we require in our health system.

  19. DTT:

    Sorry but whatever credibility you may have had with me in the past has blown up on accord of your own comments and posts.

  20. I think you’ve well and truly left the reservation with that one.

    See I’m not the only one on that train of thought….

  21. One of my nieces is a Emirates hostie.

    She was in a plane on the tarmac at Riyadh airport waiting to take off when the missile shoot down happened.

    She says one very large ‘bang’ followed by three or four smaller ones. They saw nothing.

    They took off pretty much immediately thereafter and they didn’t know what happened until the flight debriefing after they arrived back in Dubai.

  22. AR

    You will not that i said not yet sure etc etc, so I share your doubts. However I gather trump made an explosive tweet recently on the subject, Kushner was just in Saudi Arabia and Trump apparently dislikes the arrested tycoon.

    Since I have been expecting payback on the Democrats with some sort of “foreign influence” meme to counter the Mueller stuff, this possibly (note I said possibly) fits the bill. Indeed Saudi influence was always the most likely given the strong connections between the saudis and Bush the Elder and Hillary Clinton.

    So it is one to watch.

  23. Confessions

    You have no cred with me because you are always antagonistic. I think if I posted that 1+1=2 you would find a reason to argue the toss.

    Since you contribute very little of an analytical nature I cannot really assess your reasoning skills, but given the absence of such reasoning I assume it is not a favoured past time.


    Saudi Arabia has arrested 11 princes, four officials and tens of former officials as part of a sweeping anti-corruption probe which further cements control in the hands of its young Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman.

    Billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, who has extensive holdings in Western companies, was among those arrested, state news agencies reported.

    A top security official, Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, was detained and replaced as minister of the powerful National Guard by Prince Khaled bin Ayyaf, consolidating Prince Mohammed’s control of security institutions which had previously been headed by separate branches of the ruling family.

    News of the purge came after King Salman decreed the creation of a new anti-corruption committee chaired by Prince Mohammed, his 32-year-old son, who has swiftly amassed power since rising from obscurity less than three years ago.

    Not mysteriously, the Mueller investigations and indictments don’t get a mention in this account.


    Saudi Arabia will allow women into three sports stadiums for the first time, the latest step in attempts to transform one of the world’s most conservative societies.

    The kingdom’s sports authority said stadiums in Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam will be prepared to admit families at the beginning of next year, according to a statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency.

    The move follows a decision by Saudi authorities last month to remove a longstanding ban on women driving.

    Easing restrictions on women is part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plan to overhaul the economy to reduce its reliance on oil revenue. The government says it wants to increase women’s participation in the workforce to 30 percent from 22 percent by 2030.

  26. DTT:

    You’re an open and active Trump/Putin apologist which says it all for me and others here.

    I could therefore care less what you think of me.

  27. But according to DTT Trump was the more secure presidential candidate!

    President Trump donned a military-style bomber jacket shortly after arriving Sunday in Japan and projected confidence that the United States will confront threats in Asia, telling hundreds of U.S. troops that they will have his administration’s support “to fight, to overpower and to always, always, always win.”

    Trump’s tough talk in a speech to U.S. and Japanese military personnel at Yokota Air Base, shortly after Air Force One touched down here, aimed to set a tone for his five-nation tour, during which the president said he is likely to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

  28. Since you contribute very little of an analytical nature

    Hilarious coming from the one commenter here who said Trump was the lesser of two evils vs Clinton. Talk about contributing very little of an analytical nature. And with all the evidence we have with TRump you still cannot admit your error.

  29. daretotread says:
    Monday, November 6, 2017 at 12:06 am
    Just so you at last can see the reservation boundaries you might find this CNBC article relevant

    It sorta hints at the ideas I suggested

    …wherein nothing even remotely connected to Mueller, to “payback” or to Clinton is mentioned….

    The proposition is that Saudi affairs are being run in order to retaliate against Mueller. dtt, even by your fabulous standards, that is a pearler.

  30. briefly

    The behaviour of the Lebanese PM adds to the possibilities …

    No doubt we’ll hear at least 99 more conspiracy theories to add to the one we already have posted here. It’s very deficit however as it doesn’t feature any North Koreans or Bulgarians in brown trench coats.

  31. briefly

    It’s all down to the ‘carbon tax’ making refrigerant too expensive for Saudi Arabian IGA supermarkets to continue trading. (You have to have been posting/reading here for a long while to understand this one!).

  32. Confessions

    You have no evidence just a whole lot of media blather put together by the MSM with the analytical content of a kindergarten drawing, which you adopt with all the oohhh aaarrr! gasping of the typical village idiots lead by the nose.

    The US election process delivered up a choice of two terrible candidates.

    One was intelligent , experienced and competent. This candidate had positive progressive values on social policies, medical insurance, climate change, immigration etc, but given closeness to wall st and strongly globalist sentiments was not convincing re the economic reform. Additionally this candidate but had an ideological hatred of the second most powerful nation on earth (with nukes) and a clear and obvious belief that that power needed to be (and COULD safely be) confronted. There was a history of bad blood and mistrust between this candidate and the second most powerful nation. There were two flashpoints on-going where the two most powerful nations could come into hot conflict.

    The other candidate had appalling policies (more support base than personal) on social matters, medical insurance, wealth distribution, climate change, immigration etc but was less globalist in perspective. This candidate had no experience, was an an appalling person, immature, emotional, arrogant and narcissistic. However this candidate did not have an ideological hatred of the second largest power (with nukes) and spoke of getting on with them and defusing conflict. While having few sensible ideas about economic problems, this candidate did at least recognise that there were problems to be addressed.

    Now for me personally I prefer the person who seeks to avoid a hot conflict with the second largest power (with nukes) despite being an emotional narcissistic pussy groper. For those of you who think Trumps propensity for foul language and groping is of greater importance than avoiding nuclear holocaust , then you choose candidate 1.

    Now of course Trump has been effectively sidelined so I guess the USA got the worst of both candidates – an unfortunate outcome – Trumps incompetence and personality flaws along with Hillary’s foreign policy.

  33. You have no evidence just a whole lot of media blather

    Oh lord, open your eyes woman FFS and see what is right in front of you.

  34. Ctari

    Yes the Donna Brazille stuff is a bit of an eye opener.

    Now she has an axe to grind so some stuff will be out of whack but clearly there were tensions within the Democrat camp.

    The most concerning take (for me) was the level of indebtedness of the Democrat party and probably (if true) the failure of the campaign team to even listen to Bill Clinton’s advice re the rust belt.

    Of course you sort of get the sense that she was a Biden supporter, so her perspective may not be objective.

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