BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Mild improvement for the Coalition in the poll aggregate this week after better results from Essential Research and YouGov (though not Newspoll).

The Coalition recovers just a little bit from its low base in this week’s reading of BludgerTrack, which incorporates new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov. The Coalition is up half a point on the primary vote and 0.3% on two-party preferred, although the bigger mover is One Nation, which came in higher from all three pollsters. The only change on the seat projection is a gain for the Coalition in Victoria. After a leap last week on the back of the monthly Essential Research numbers, Malcolm Turnbull’s is down again on the leadership trend after a very different result from Newspoll. The bigger picture on these measures is how remarkably little change there has been since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,721 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

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  1. rwillingham: Breaking: Vic euthanasia laws have passed the lower house on a conscience vote 47-37. Off to upper house in a fortnight @abcnews #springst

  2. Questions on VAD in VIC?

    Its a conscious vote for Lab/Lib/Nat right?

    Its the Upper House where its passage is not assured?

  3. Humanity empathy and compassion only took 20 years to pass after the Northern Territory was blocked by the Andrews Bill.

    Well done Victoria.

  6. Ladeez and Gennermun of Orstraya.

    Draw near and hear (rings bell).

    The Right Honourable AR has updated his C+ as follows:-

    Version 0.7.13 Released October 19, 2017 164.6 KiB Works with Firefox for Android 48.0 – *, Firefox 48.0 and later
    Fix an issue where stale quoted text could be carried forward across multiple uses of the ‘Quote’ button.

    A thousand pardon me’s if this has already been announced.

    A note to self. You are not as clever as you like to think.

    C+ is (see above) available for Android so get cracking and install it on your dinky little Samsung 8.4 in tablet.

    Done

    Sings in broken French ♫ C’est si bon, lovairs say zat in francay♪♪♫

    Raining in Newcastle. Hoorah ❗

    😻 ☕

  8. I don’t know the actual details but from reporting the sense I got was that the Lower House was the big hurdle not the Upper House

  10. Obama Drops A Devastating Truth Bomb About Why Trump’s Presidency Is Such A Failure

    “If you have to win a campaign by dividing people, you’re not gonna be able to govern them. You won’t be able to unite them later if that’s how you start.”

    During Barack Obama’s campaign blitz on Thursday, he dropped a devastating truth bomb on Donald Trump about why the current administration has failed so miserably when it comes to governing the country.

    According to the 44th president, Trump’s divisive and offensive campaign doomed his presidency from the start by pitting Americans against one another.

    Trump spent nearly two years during the campaign dividing the country and inflaming tensions, whether it was kicking off his candidacy by insulting Mexican immigrants, encouraging violence against anti-Trump demonstrators, or demonizing Muslims – all to pit angry white voters against the growing minority population in the United States.

    By the time Trump was sworn in, it was too late to put the pieces back together and unite the country around a common agenda – and Trump didn’t even try. Instead, the president has continued the same divisive and offensive style of politics, and his presidency has been an epic failure.

    With Donald Trump unlikely to change his behavior, it’ll only get worse before it gets better.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/19/obama-drops-devastating-truth-bomb-trumps-presidency-failure.html

  12. “If you have to win a campaign by dividing people, you’re not gonna be able to govern them. You won’t be able to unite them later if that’s how you start.”

    It works for the political right: divide the community in two and take the biggest half. Standard operating procedure.

  13. Lots of questions being asked why US Special Forces troops were even in Niger ???????? …… maybe more to the ‘official’ story than has been so far revealed …. Oil ??? Russia ????

  14. Re the VAD bill – in the Victorian Upper House there are 5 Greens members who are bound by party policy to vote for the legislation, so that’s a solid start to reaching a majority in a 40 member house.

  15. @phoenixRED: Well, Obama would say that.

    There’s a school of thought that people are already divided, and that Obama utterly wasted his enormous popularity and political capital in the first year of his Presidency by trying to be a “uniter” towards people who had no interest in accepting the hand he extended towards them.

    Obama could have come into office, denounced the Republicans for getting America into the mess he inherited, and called them enemies of the change America had just voted for if they kept blocking what he was trying to do. Put the Republican senators and congressmen in fear of losing their seats in a wave if they opposed his popular momentum. Instead he kept trying to compromise until the momentum was gone, and never tied the Republicans to their past failures while there was an unusual percentage of Americans open to listening to a progressive President.

    Obama had all the good intentions of uniting people but I don’t think Obama achieved anything in that regard. To the extent he achieved anything it was through competent administrative ability and negotiation, the skills Trump lacks. It’s that which makes Trump (and Abbott, for that matter) such failures even at achieving their ideological agendas let alone at being good governors.

  19. KayJay

    C+ is (see above) available for Android so get cracking and install it on your dinky little Samsung 8.4 in tablet.

    Searching for C+ in Google Play doesn’t seem to find it.

    ‘Find for Dummies’ help needed!

  20. We know that Jacinta can’t spell but that she can count. If she wants to have a dialogue with Australia she will talk PM to PM and not to some nobody called Julia.

  23. CTar1 @ #168 Friday, October 20th, 2017 – 12:08 pm

    KayJay

    C+ is (see above) available for Android so get cracking and install it on your dinky little Samsung 8.4 in tablet.

    Searching for C+ in Google Play doesn’t seem to find it.

    ‘Find for Dummies’ help needed!

    One memento Señor while I put you through to the Department of Dummies.

    Hello ❗ What’s that you say – you want a dummy ❓

    I have one available about 166 cm tall and very old, quite battered but quite presentable when displayed in the right light.

    Ah ❗ yessir, here we are at the low, low price of a drop of your blood and assignment of your soul for eternity.

    He He He (evil cackle (badly done)).

    For Android
    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin/

    See how you go with that young man. It works just fine on my device but sadly requires intelligent input if intelligent output required. Quite hopeless.

    Many thanks to AR

  26. Jaws Drop As Trump Tries To Handpick Attorneys In Charge Of Investigating His Administration

    “For him to be interviewing candidates for that prosecutor who may in turn consider whether to bring indictments involving him and his administration seems to smack of political interference.”

    Donald Trump’s disregard for the rule of law continued on Thursday as a new report indicates that the president has personally interviewed several candidates for U.S. Attorney positions in New York.

    According to Politico, one of the candidates Trump personally interviewed “would have jurisdiction over Trump Tower and be in a position to investigate the Trump administration.” More from the report:

    President Donald Trump has personally interviewed at least two potential candidates for U.S. attorney positions in New York, according to two sources familiar with the matter — a move that critics say raises questions about whether they can be sufficiently independent from the president.

    Once again, Trump is proving that there is no abuse of power he won’t commit so long as it gives him the opportunity to protect his administration as investigations into his corruption continue to pile up.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/19/jaws-drop-trump-handpick-attorneys-charge-investigating-administration.html

  30. Tingle:

    This week, for the first time in eight years, the pathetic, destructive, pointless politics of Tony Abbott haven’t worked.

    When Abbott tried to start a party room revolt on Tuesday, his colleagues didn’t want to know. They howled him down. They weren’t interested in the divisive politics, which are his only political game plan.

    Supporters of more ambitious climate change policies will argue that Abbott has won anyway, given the nature of the policy that has been produced.

    But it was ultimately not Abbott who was important in the dynamics of this policy outcome but the Nationals and the powerful conservative blocs within the Coalition.

    http://www.afr.com/opinion/amid-all-the-noise-a-significant-moment-in-politics-20171019-gz486a?utm_source=TractionNext&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Worm-Subscribe-191017

  31. “If you have to win a campaign by dividing people, you’re not gonna be able to govern them. You won’t be able to unite them later if that’s how you start.”

    I’ll bet the Libs here wish that Abbott would read that and actually comprehend.

  34. Supporters of more ambitious climate change policies will argue that Abbott has won anyway, given the nature of the policy that has been produced.

    But it was ultimately not Abbott who was important in the dynamics of this policy outcome but the Nationals and the powerful conservative blocs within the Coalition.

    Let me rewrite that for Ms Tingle:

    Supporters of ANY effective climate change policy will argue that this policy is a load of horsehit.

    But the fact that it was ultimately not Abbott who was important in the dynamics of this policy is totally irrelevant if you are actually more concerned with actual policy rather than the tiresome, entirely predictable and inadequate processes within the LNP.

  35. Tingle:

    This week, for the first time in eight years, the pathetic, destructive, pointless politics of Tony Abbott haven’t worked.

    Perhaps Laura could care to write an article explaining why political journalists did not call Abbott’s “pathetic, destructive, pointless politics ” pathetic,destructive politics in articles they wrote 8,7,6,5….. years ago. Didn’t notice ?

  36. I heard Bishop’s latest contribution on NZ Labour. I thought she sounded irritated, exasperated even, at the continuing questions about her August remarks. What did she expect?

  38. Maddow connects the dots on how Trump adding Chad to his travel ban may have gotten soldiers killed in Niger

    It’s no surprise that the commander-in-chief won’t touch this topic with a nine-foot pole, and instead, continues to wage a war against Gold Star families.

    In a stunning segment on Thursday night, Rachel Maddow revealed the “mistaken” Donald Trump policy decision that may have led to the attack that killed four American soldiers in Niger.

    According to Maddow, the administration’s decision to add the African nation of Chad to its revised list of travel ban countries may have been the first domino in a series of events that led to the deadly ambush in Niger.

    Maddow said:

    This really was the deadliest combat mission of his presidency thus far, and it really did follow just days after a policy decision by his administration – an inexplicable, baffling, possibly mistaken policy decision by his administration. I mean, it’s being called a mistake at best by everybody who knows the region. Just days after that policy decision by his administration, our best and most experienced and most battle-hardened regional military allies in that part of the world pulled out of that part of the world and went home, and then American soldiers were attacked.

    As an apparent result of the Trump administration’s policy decision, Chad pulled hundreds of soldiers from Niger, where they were assisting the U.S. in an ongoing fight against terrorists in the region, including Boko Horam.

    In short, Trump’s irresponsible decision to add Chad to his travel ban created a chain reaction that prompted the country to pull out of Niger, emboldened American enemies in the region, and led to the deaths of four brave U.S. soldiers.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/19/rachel-maddow-reveals-baffling-trump-decision-led-dead-u-s-soldiers-niger.html

  43. Where’s Pegasus? I have a message for her.

    Subject: Make sure everyone knows.

    After all their infighting, it can be pretty hard to know what the Greens really stand for. Earlier this year, we got a good look at what matters most to some of them.

    In Preston, the Greens dominated Darebin Council chose to protect the interests of a small group of wealthy property owners, not people who need affordable housing.

    A public housing development was blocked because of Greens councillors who only had one concern; protecting property values for wealthy investors. Clearly, not every Green will agree with the decision, but we’re not hearing anything from them.

    So far, only Labor is fighting for this housing project.

    Voting starts in Northcote this Friday and we need your help get this message out.

    Will you donate $9 to help Clare Burns and Labor fight for affordable housing in Northcote?

  44. Quite a few years ago now a relative of mine was admitted to a private Catholic hospital and during their time there it became clear that the end had come and that further treatment was pointless. This relative’s views around end of life treatment were well known – they didn’t want to suffer.

    This relative had the good fortune to have another relative who was an insider in the medical system and who was able to facilitate contact being made with one of the hospital doctors who was well known to other system insiders for their “liberal” interpretations of the rules around end of life treatment. Shortly after the appropriate ‘winks and nods’ were undertaken between the insiders we were asked to leave the room while the said doctor attended to our relative, and after we were given the ok to re-enter the room and be there while our relative lived out the last minutes of their life in relative comfort.

    When my time comes I don’t want to be relying on luck to come into contact with such a doctor, nor do I want that doctor exposing themselves to the legal risk associated with such practices. I’m 100% behind properly regulated euthanasia.

  45. bonza

    Do you think there’s a chance Brexit simply won’t happen?

    I think an ugly exit is the most likely outcome unless there’s some very tangible steps forward in the next couple of weeks.

  46. @ bemused – and in the real world where the rest of us live.

    The Greens Councillors objected to the specific design of the housing being too shit and not consulted about. They did not object to public housing being put on that spot.

    Yes, building good public housing in a spot will provide some benefit to the wealthy landowners nearby. But it will provide more benefit to the people that live in the housing as opposed to next to it.

  48. Apparently Frydenberg will be featured in the Age Good Weekend.

    It’s a fiendishly difficult job, being this country’s energy minister. Difficult in a policy sense, because you’re in charge of fixing one of the most important challenges of our time, the energy crisis – experienced by most of us in soaring power bills – but much more complex than that. The ramifications if you don’t get it right will be disastrous and potentially long-lasting.

    Difficult also, politically, because the debate is so heated, and so polarised, that the one thing you can be sure of is that not everyone will be happy with what you’ve come up with. (As this week attests.) To take on all of that, you’d want super-human reserves of both confidence and ambition.

    As Jacqueline Maley writes in Good Weekend, Josh Frydenberg has both. He once aspired to be a professional tennis player; these days, Frydenberg has his sights set on the Lodge – all in good time, of course. In the meantime, there are those who think he’s a show pony only out for himself, those who think they can corner him into doing what they want, and those who think he has the mettle to pull off the compromise needed. Read Maley’s story and make up your own mind.

  49. To quote from above:

    The ramifications if you don’t get it right will be disastrous and potentially long-lasting.

    Quite so. But I think the jury is already back in with their verdict. Maley has a tendency (IMO) to be far too soft on pollies

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