Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential’s latest produces an improved result for Malcolm Turnbull on personal approval – but not on voting intention.

The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research fortnight rolling average result has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with primary votes to follow later today (UPDATE: everybody steady, with Coalition on 36%, Labor 38%, Greens 10% and One Nation 7%). Nonetheless, Malcolm Turnbull records an encouraging result from Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have him up four on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 43% (UPDATE: Actually, he’s only up one point). Bill Shorten is at 37% and 47%, which compares with 36% and 47% a month ago (although The Guardian report says he is down three on disapproval – either this is wrong, or his disapproval rating is really 44%) (UPDATE: It’s the latter). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 42-28, little changed from last month’s 43-29.

The poll also finds 55% consider war between the United States and North Korea very or somewhat likely, versus 36% for somewhat or very unlikely. Asked to rate various potential concerns to personal safety, the order of concern ran terrorism, car accidents, nuclear warfare, catastrophic climate change, natural disasters, gang violence and family violence (of which you can make what you will). Also featured was a question on which major party best represents various interests, which produced familiar results.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,916 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 36 of 39
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  1. [John Reidy
    The decision for the right Dutton et el, on SSM, assuming a Yes vote gets up is: do they allow a bill with some religious protections that Labor could support (and possibly change later), or do they sabotage the process by putting forward a bill Labor would never support.

    No point asking the PM, it wouldn’t be his decision.]

    Virtually no need for any protections as they already exist in the Marriage Act.

  2. Ides of March @ #1746 Thursday, October 12th, 2017 – 6:25 pm

    KJ

    You’ll probably stay intelligent if you dont watch!

    My favourite daughter watches the morning show (whatever that is) because of the cash prizes if you say the magic words (something or other) when you answer the phone.

    I try to tell her (the FD) that they (the channel seven crew) are a bunch of boofheads but she immediately counters with the checkmate “they get paid losts of money” whereupon I retreat to attempt to regroup and try again later.

    😊

  5. Xenophon is the most likely to stay, either on reasonable to check grounds (if such grounds are ruled) because the citizenship was from an obscure retention from colonial rule because of residence in Australia and because the citizenship is so close to pointless that it may be ruled not to constitute citizenship of a foreign power. However it is not certain that the High court will rule to uphold Xenophon`s election because they may decide that British Overseas Citizenship is a citizenship of a foreign power and, given that Cypress is a former British Colony, it was reasonable to check for. There is also a chance that Xenophon will get a “it was reasonable that you did not check but now it has come to light, colonial citizenship retentions have to be checked for” ruling.

    Canavan is the next most likely to stay, because there is more than one generation of decent and Italy has only held people in his situation to be citizens since he was 2 (all be it retrospectively). However there is a reasonable chance he will go, especially since it is only 2 generations of decent and there is a large community of people of Italian ancestry who the High Court may think need to be told to check.

    Nash is third most likely to stay, because of her distance from her father but is still likely to go.

    Joyce is fourth most likely to stay, as he new his father was born in New Zealand but his father moved before NZ Citizenship.

    As Waters was born in Canada, it is likely she will go although the confusion around the law change just after her birth may cause her to stay.

    Roberts is gone sixth most likely to stay but is gone because he knew or should have known he was British and if he had been Australian by decent, he may still have had Indian Citizenship.

    Ludlam is most likely to go because he fits the Sykes versus Cleary precedent over Australian naturalisations not over ruling foreign citizenships staying under their own laws.

  7. Oh I agree BiGD, re existing protections for SSM, no more are needed, but given the way the GG has been going on about this for months, they will feel the need to do something.

  8. Big balls to open to the High Court like this:

    [Newlinds: May I first sweep away a number of false premises and assumptions that we say are built into many of the arguments that have been floating around for the last couple of days insofar as those arguments are said to attach to Senator Roberts]

  11. lizzie
    Justin Raethel‏ @JustinRaethel · 5h5 hours ago

    Forward thinking action by @AnnastaciaMP and her team is bringing huge investment dollars to Qld #cleanenergy #auspol #qldpol

    If that is true, why the hell is she so in love with Adani.

    Labor’s strategy on Adani is essentially defensive. The LNP have taken an aggressively pro-development position, believing they have no votes to lose in doing so. If Labor takes up a position of outright opposition to the LNP policy, they risk wedging themselves with voters concerned about jobs/unemployment. So their position is intended to neutralise the LNP and then create a distinction by campaigning on renewables. The LNP will not be able to help themselves. They will oppose any initiative on clean/renewable energy. In the end, the plan will be to stall the LNP, defeat them at the polls and allow Adani to fade away.

    Labor have brand strength on jobs. They will not harm that value…and they will outsmart the LNP.

  12. X safe wouldn’t surprise too many I think Shellbell. He identified the most obvious issues and took steps. To be consistent with Sykes the only question would be if those were reasonable steps or if the bar is set higher (correctly identify all citizenship issues, then take the appropriate action).

    I don’t think there’d be too much to complain about if the court decided that he made reasonable efforts to comply.

    Now the rest…

  13. The usual crap from the Press –

    Hacker codenamed ‘Alf’ from Home and Away stole secret data on Joint Strike Fighter jets and surveillance planes

    Seeing as the hacker hasn’t been identified how would they know he used ‘Alf’ because of ‘Home and Away’?

  14. Tom

    I think I agree with your order although I suspect that the court will go the extra inch or so to rule out Roberts on the ground that competence and to rule Waters in on the grounds of her accepting responsibility and the one week stuff. (OK I know not legal arguments but even the HC are human)

  18. Shell (and other lawyers)

    What exactly is the role of Kennett.

    Is he there to put the case against the 4 LNP simply because there is no one else?

    Or is he there to more or less present the judges’s views?

  20. [shellbell
    At 6.34pm, I declare Xenophon safe    ]

    I was wondering that when his lawyers didn’t get up to reply today.

    Any significance?

  23. lizzie
    briefly

    Well the latest is that Adani will be unable to finance their loan.

    Yup…everyone can see it’s a charade, sustained only by the political needs of the LNP.

  25. Reuters on the citizenship ‘caper’ –

    CANBERRA (Reuters) – Australia’s High Court said on Thursday it was aware of the need to rule on the eligibility of seven lawmakers quickly, but warned it could not guarantee a speedy resolution to a case that threatens the government’s one-seat majority in parliament.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-politics/australian-court-says-no-guarantee-of-speedy-ruling-on-citizenship-crisis-idUSKBN1CH0PI?il=0

  27. Channel 7 News Sydney headline – “Labor’s secret internal polling showing Labor would be back in government if they dumped Shorten”]

    And since the election Labor’s polling has only gotten stronger…with Bill Shorten as Leader.

  34. BK – This will provide for Toyota to chop lots of jobs in Japan.

    TOKYO (Reuters) – Toyota Motor Corp is aiming to halve the number of car models it sells at home by 2025, a person briefed on the matter said – the second time this month that a Japanese automaker has emerged with plans to sharply scale back in a shrinking domestic market.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyota-strategy/toyota-seeking-to-halve-japan-car-models-as-domestic-market-shrinks-idUSKBN1CH025?il=0

  38. CTar1 @ #1786 Thursday, October 12th, 2017 – 6:42 pm

    BK – This will provide for Toyota to chop lots of jobs in Japan.

    TOKYO (Reuters) – Toyota Motor Corp is aiming to halve the number of car models it sells at home by 2025, a person briefed on the matter said – the second time this month that a Japanese automaker has emerged with plans to sharply scale back in a shrinking domestic market.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyota-strategy/toyota-seeking-to-halve-japan-car-models-as-domestic-market-shrinks-idUSKBN1CH025?il=0

    It makes eminent sense. You will also find that the remaining models will share lots more components too.

  39. Qld Labor can’t walk away from Adani, post election. They’ve committed to heavily. The only escape is if Adani collapses. Which gives them cover since no one expects them to build a public coal mine.

  40. Shellbell,
    Yes, Kennett’s there to put the case against all of them except Joyce because no-one else has turned up to do it.
    (I’m a a lawyer.)

  41. Also William, could you request the gerbils check the coding for this site on an Android phone with a fairly recent Chrome version ?

    There appears to be a massive memory leak in at least one page update function.

  43. Also William, could you request the gerbils check the coding for this site on an Android phone with a fairly recent Chrome version ?

    I could — for all the good it would do me.

  46. Not a lawyer, but this bit caught my attention.

    Quite an interesting exchange between Keane and Donaghue.

    Donaghue seems to be clutching at straws, especially when you read some of the scenarios he comes up with to try and support his position.

    [KEANE J: No, I think what is being put to you by Justice Edelman is that there is something slightly unrealistic in the real world about the submission that they could not reasonably have known, given that we are here because the facts are knowable and have been established.

    MR DONAGHUE: Ultimately, with the benefit of hindsight, for these people that is true, your Honour, but ‑ ‑ ‑

    KEANE J: But it is not about the benefit of hindsight, is it? It is about whether it is a sound rule, in interpreting the Constitution, to treat section 44(i) as making a peremptory requirement that the person tendering himself or herself for election must qualify and, if that person does not qualify, that is no one else’s fault. It is not even that person’s fault.

    MR DONAGHUE: It is not that person’s fault.

    KEANE J: It is just that they do not qualify.

    MR DONAGHUE: Your Honour, that is what has been put to you as the appropriate way to construe the provision. In our submission, that has two major defects: one, that as a matter of fact it is not difficult to identify situations where a person who reasonably seeks to put themselves forward for election is not able to identify their foreign citizenship. I have given one example of not knowing the grandparents. If you are the child of a single mother and you do not know who your father is and your father then comes forward at some point and that relationship is established, then that might fix you suddenly with a descent status that would disqualify you from sitting in Parliament.]

    https://jade.io/article/550542

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