Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential’s latest produces an improved result for Malcolm Turnbull on personal approval – but not on voting intention.

The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research fortnight rolling average result has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with primary votes to follow later today (UPDATE: everybody steady, with Coalition on 36%, Labor 38%, Greens 10% and One Nation 7%). Nonetheless, Malcolm Turnbull records an encouraging result from Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have him up four on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 43% (UPDATE: Actually, he’s only up one point). Bill Shorten is at 37% and 47%, which compares with 36% and 47% a month ago (although The Guardian report says he is down three on disapproval – either this is wrong, or his disapproval rating is really 44%) (UPDATE: It’s the latter). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 42-28, little changed from last month’s 43-29.

The poll also finds 55% consider war between the United States and North Korea very or somewhat likely, versus 36% for somewhat or very unlikely. Asked to rate various potential concerns to personal safety, the order of concern ran terrorism, car accidents, nuclear warfare, catastrophic climate change, natural disasters, gang violence and family violence (of which you can make what you will). Also featured was a question on which major party best represents various interests, which produced familiar results.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,916 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Google uncovered Russia-backed ads on YouTube, Gmail

    By Reuters on Mon, Oct 9th, 2017 at 9:41 am

    Google has discovered that Russian operatives spent tens of thousands of dollars on ads on YouTube, Gmail, Google search and other products, The Washington Post reported on Monday.

    The ads do not appear to be from the same Kremlin-affiliated entity that bought ads on Facebook Inc, which may indicate a broader Russian online disinformation effort, the paper reported. Google runs the world’s largest online advertising business and YouTube is the world’s largest online video site.

    Google, owned by Alphabet Inc, did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the story.

    Google has downplayed the possibility of Russian influence on its platforms, but launched a probe into the matter, according to the Post. Both Twitter Inc and Facebook have said that Russia bought ads and had accounts on their platforms.

  2. Morning Joe: Trump ‘so out of it’ he doesn’t understand how close he is to impeachment

    MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough warned President Donald Trump may be “sealing his own fate” by attacking Republican senators who can not only derail his legislative agenda, but also remove him from office.

    The “Morning Joe” host walked through the president’s angry tweets against Sen. Bob Corker, pointing out each of the lies he found, and said the Tennessee Republican’s response showed he was ready to fight Trump.

    “If impeachment does come up, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bob Corker and John McCain and Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski and Jeff Flake and all these Republicans that he’s going after, if he’s, again, not sealing his own fate and, hopefully, there’s one or two Republicans out there that I haven’t mentioned who said, you know what, this is just too dangerous for our country. I really don’t think this man is stable and I do not think he’s fit, and I think we need to start talking about other alternatives. All that unleashed by Donald Trump.”

  3. Trump has an elaborate routine he uses to hide his double chin during photographs: new book

    President Donald Trump notoriously hates having his double chin shown during photographs, and a new book claims that he goes out of his way to avoid showing his chin in pictures.

    The Washington Examiner notes that a new book — called Ultimate Insiders, White House Photographers and How They Shape History — details how Trump prevents photographers from snapping pictures of him in ways that expose the flabby area around his neck.

    Specifically, author Kenneth Walsh writes that Trump choreographs “his appearances as much as possible to minimize photos of him from the front at a low angle or from the sides, because he thought his double chin became too obvious.”

  4. Melania issues statement insisting she’s not jealous of ‘attention-seeking and self-serving’ Ivana Trump

    First Lady Melania Trump put out a statement on Monday to knock down the suggestion that she was jealous over President Donald Trump’s ex-wife Ivana.

    In an interview with CBS News that aired over the weekend, Ivana Trump revealed that she had a direct line to the president but she said she declined to use it to avoid making Melania Trump jealous. Trump’s ex-wife went on to call herself the “first Lady” in an interview on ABC News.

    The claim seemed to get under the first lady’s skin, and her office issued a statement on Monday calling Ivana Trump’s remarks “attention-seeking and self-serving noise.”

  5. For some foreign diplomats, the Trump White House is a troubling enigma

    After nearly nine months of the Trump administration, many of America’s closest allies have concluded a hoped-for “learning curve” they believed would make President Trump a reliable partner is not going to happen.

    “The idea that he would inform himself, and things would change, that is no longer operative,” said a top diplomat here.

    Instead, they see an administration in which lines of authority and decision-making are unclear, where tweets become policy, and hard-won international accords on trade and climate are discarded. The result has been a special kind of challenge for those whose jobs is to advocate here for their countries and explain the president and his unconventional ways at home.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Martin provides some perspective on the GST sharing issue.
    Greg Jericho sums it up by saying all Morrison has to do is to sell a GST cut to every state bar one! As usual it’s full of good data.
    Paul Bongiorno writes “The Turnbull government is holding its collective breath as its majority in the Parliament is determined by the High Court this week. But that’s just one of the dangerous issues facing the Coalition before the end of the year.” The political time bomb ticks closer for Turnbull he says.
    Peter Hartcher examines the motives behind the likely appointment of Admiral Harry Harris as US Ambassador to Australia.
    Gladys Berejiklian’s government has passed the least bills of any new NSW premiers in three decades, a new analysis of records shows. She’s going to have to have to lift her game one would think.
    George Williams has a final look at the government’s submission to the High Court on the citizenship issue.
    The man behind Australia’s biggest ever home loan swindle has been sentenced to five years in prison for running the scheme that cooked up $170 million in fraudulent loan applications. Animal!
    George Christenson has gone troppo over the 4 Corners Adani program.
    Adam Gartrell has issued a guide to the HC hearing.
    A leading advocate for children with disabilities has accused the NSW government of failing to properly investigate allegations of child abuse.

  7. Section 2 . . .

    Here’s a good analysis of the current flu season.
    The NSW government will move to weaken laws protecting Sydney’s water catchment to circumvent a court’s ruling that threatened fuel supplies to the state’s newest coal-fired power station. Nice!
    A day in the life of an abortion nurse. well worth reading for the sake of perspective.
    In a speech to the International Bar Association George Brandis has delivered a sharp rebuke to Dutton, and reminded government ministers of the need to respect the rule of law and authority of the courts. He delivered a full-throated defence of the rule of law and the legal profession. George is an enigma at times.
    Jenna Price tells us what Australia should learn from the Harvey Weinstein sexual harassment case.
    Elizabeth Knight discusses the class action suit on the CBA and who’s in the firing line. The bank has said it will vigorously defend the case.
    On energy policy Laura Tingle wonders if this government knows what it’s doing. Google.
    Alan Finkel has made a last-ditch plea to save the proposed clean energy target, even as the Turnbull government signalled it will reject the proposal by the end of the year. The way things are going he’ll get the boot!
    Nicole Hasham sums up Finkel’s position with “The patient’s vital signs are not good. Power prices are high, and emissions haemorrhaging. Reliability and security of supply are in doubt. We need a treatment plan, and fast.”
    Phil Coorey says that Australia risks more energy policy paralysis and another election fought on climate change after the government signalled it was stepping away from a clean energy target, setting the scene for a new fight with Labor. It will be a Climate War election. Google.

  8. Section 3 . . .

    Abbott has doubled down on his scepticism of climate change science, reigniting a decade-old debate in a major speech in London after the Turnbull government moved yesterday to rule out proceeding with a clean ¬energy target proposed by Chief Scientist Alan Finkel. In years to come the history books will not put Abbott in a good light. Google.
    How hate seeps in and damages us all. The Hanson effect.
    The Turnbull Government, with the eager support of the state premiers, is marching us towards becoming a police state, writes Dr Binoy Kampmark.,10802
    John Pilger writes about the rise of “new politics” in Great Britain.
    Domino’s Pizza says it has returned $5.4 million in underpaid wages and superannuation to its employees over the past four years under a national audit of its stores that is due to wrap up in December.
    Religious institutions and free-speech advocates have condemned a bid by the Northern Territory government to “modernise” anti-discrimination laws, describing proposed changes as a significant threat to religious freedom. The Australian continues its tub thumping. Google.
    The Age has asked Dr Brian Owler what how the proposed Victorian assisted dying legislation would treat six hypothetical cases. The dementia example is a difficult one.
    This article goes to the dynamics of change when it comes to population growth and living in Sydney.
    The SMH editorial says that Sydney isn’t full, it just feels that way.–it-just-feels-that-way-20171009-gyx91f.html
    Victorian independent schools have been accused of “gaming the system” to almost double their federal funding for students with a disability. This really peeves me off!
    Poor Clive Palmer cops another adverse court decision. Google.
    According to John Passant Nick Xenophon is a self-interested show pony, who may win votes in South Australia but will never fix anything.,10801

  9. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 9h9 hours ago

    No, Matt Canavan, The NAIF is not an independent body, you dishonest crook. It’s stacked with mining supporters and set up to fund coal.

  10. Matt Canavan talks fast and has the habit, common to some politicians, of starting a new sentence without a breath, so that it is difficult to answer or interrupt him. OTOH he has no manners and talks over other speakers. This leads eventually to a shouting match.

  11. It’s hard to post this rubbish by Abbott.

    Measures to deal with climate change, which Abbott said would damage the economy, were likened to “primitive people once killing goats to appease the volcano gods”.

    “At least so far,” he said, “it’s climate change policy that’s doing harm. Climate change itself is probably doing good; or at least, more good than harm.”

    “There’s the evidence that higher concentrations of carbon dioxide – which is a plant food after all – are actually greening the planet and helping to lift agricultural yields. In most countries, far more people die in cold snaps than in heatwaves, so a gradual lift in global temperatures, especially if it’s accompanied by more prosperity and more capacity to adapt to change, might even be beneficial.”

    When he was prime minister, Abbott said he took the issue of climate change “very seriously”. But since he was deposed as prime minister by his Liberal party colleague and bête noire Malcolm Turnbull in 2015, Abbott has returned to many hardline views he had tempered as leader.

    He told the GWPF Australia needed “evidence-based policy rather than policy-based evidence” and took aim at a 2013 study that showed that 97% of scientists agree humans are driving climate change, “as if scientific truth is determined by votes rather than facts”.

  12. lizzie Tuesday, October 10th, 2017 – 7:20 am Comment #13

    Matt Canavan talks fast and has the habit, common to some politicians, of starting a new sentence without a breath, so that it is difficult to answer or interrupt him. OTOH he has no manners and talks over other speakers. This leads eventually to a shouting match.

    Many M-E men, Indians and Scotty Morrison also do this.

  13. Bk – The Kudelka cartoon and the one by Golding on GST with Scotty Morrison throwing chips to seagulls are worth the extra clicks .

  14. “…Scotty Morrison also do this.” (Starting a new sentence without a breath)

    It’s like playing the didgeridoo, where the player breaths in through his nose while simultaneously blowing to play the instrument. Scott Morrison has managed a similar trick while talking.

  15. Morning all

    Thank you BK and Phoenix for today’s reports.

    The dual citizenship saga will be interesting to see how it all plays out

  16. Malcolm had better start on-shoring some money, because even the business community (except for the multis who support the BCA) will shut their wallets. His only plan at the next election will be to charge desperately … into the past. Doesn’t he realise they only won the last election because he fooled enough boobs into thinking he was the future. It’s shaping up as a massacre.

  17. zoomster @ #19 Tuesday, October 10th, 2017 – 7:37 am

    …and bushfires and floods replenish the soil. It’s all good, folks.

    And with all the hallmarks of a lack of adult thinking and pursuit of truth through enquiry and evidence, he trumpets that the pictures from the 1800s of Manly beach, where Abbott’s world begins and ends, demonstrate no rise in sea levels. Tell that to the Pacific Islanders.

    It’s what you’d expect from a boxer I guess, from someone whose sport is to hit people till the can’t stand up anymore, or worse.

  18. lizzie

    Canavan never listens to anyone’s opinion but his own.

    And if he’s forced to his petulanceis put on full display followed by a gigantic tantrum.

  19. On the John Pilger article that BK linked – I reckon that dtt and swamprat would find stuff to agree with.

    For instance –

    In fact, at the end of the US primary elections last year, Sanders led his followers into the arms of Hillary Clinton, a liberal warmonger from a long tradition in the Democratic Party.

    With Pilgers’ writings there’s almost always a conspiracy, the major party in any democratic country which is to the left of centre is never left enough and the minor parties even further left are generally ‘crap’ as well.

  20. Thanks Mr. BK for your roundups.

    I profess to being only mildly depressed (Canavan & Co) although being of an optimistic nature I am looking forward to a day without incoherent, self contradicting, humourless twaddle in support of something, or possibly nothing.

    This last because I have spent considerable time with my patented headlight aglow and mini screwdrivers at the ready repairing my favourite extra grouse, yew beaut mouse with patented ready for all eventualities scroll wheel mouse.

    Having to fall back on my secondary support mouse I blocked a couple of posters for the nonce.
    Now, however, No 1 mouse at the ready everybody unblocked we are ready for the day.

    Time for me to prepare a weeks daily rations of prescription pills and then fresh coffee.

    Oh ❗ Good morning all. 😍

  21. I seriously wonder if TA has a number of brain lesions as a consequence of his boxing days at Oxford. An MRI scan is indicated.
    It could be all those raw onions he ate of course.

  22. I want Abbott to stay in the Liberal Party Tent and the Member for Warringah as long as he likes. He is Federal Labors most valuable item. He is Priceless.

  23. booleanbach

    It angers me that one man can do so much damage. OK, he has ‘disciples’, but he’s the central immutavle object for them to look up to.

    And Turnbull must take part of the blame for being unable to squash him.

  24. Prof. Peter Doherty‏ @ProfPCDoherty · 20m20 minutes ago

    One of the best minds of the 14th century speaks out. Abbott likens scientists to ‘thought police’

  25. Guardian Australia‏Verified account @GuardianAus 13h13 hours ago

    ‘Green Left ABC’: George Christensen takes out ad attacking Adani story

  26. my angst has reduced over the past few days, I realise why. I haven’t seen one of those stupid marriage coalition ads for a while now. Thank goodness. They were making me so aggro!L

  27. I’ve been looking at the pics of the seven MPs with clouds over them, and wondering whose absence would serve Australia best.

    Canavan and Roberts – best gone.
    Barnaby the Gina fan – out.
    Nash & Xenophon – not sure.
    Waters & Ludlam – pity.

  28. ab11

    Malcolm had better start on-shoring some money, because even the business community (except for the multis who support the BCA) will shut their wallets.

    The libs have some problems with donations at the moment.

    The BCA’s Jennifer Westacott has taken issue with a number of the Coalitions policies over the last 6 months so the wallets of some member companies might not be opened as much as they were in the past.

    The Mining Council’s members seem to be splitting as well with BHP-Billiton unhappy about the CET not being on the agenda while Gina and Twiggy are sticking with the Coalition.

  29. Thanks BK.

    In years to come the history books will not put Abbott in a good light.

    The same can be said of this coalition govt in general. They’ve done nothing to advance the country’s intersts one bit in the 4+ years they’ve been in govt.

  30. victoria @ #39 Tuesday, October 10th, 2017 – 8:40 am

    my angst has reduced over the past few days, I realise why. I haven’t seen one of those stupid marriage coalition ads for a while now. Thank goodness. They were making me so aggro!L

    Don’t hold you breath victoria. Sydney anglicans have just put 1 Mill into the No campaign.

    “Brothers and sisters, the stakes are high and the cost is high. Yet the cause is just and it is a consequence of our discipleship to uphold the gift of marriage as God has designed it – a creation ordinance for all people.”

    And anyway, what else could these self-appointed guardians of the utterances of Big Daddy Sky Spook possibly do with a million dollars.

  31. lizzie

    Almost everybody wants Roberts ‘gone’.

    Dutton might have a paddy wagon waiting outside the HC in case Roberts is found not to be an Australian citizen either.

  32. victoria:

    I was feeling good yesterday because of news out of Washington that senior Republicans are finally starting to speak out against Trump.

    For nearly nine months, Senate Republicans have watched their new president with a mix of aggravation and alarm. But it took Senator Bob Corker to take those concerns public and confront President Trump with his most serious challenge from within his own party.

    In unloading on Mr. Trump, Mr. Corker, a two-term senator from Tennessee, said in public what many of his Republican colleagues say in private — that the president is dangerously erratic and unstable, that he treats his high post like a television show and that he is reckless enough to stumble the country into a nuclear war.

  33. Abbott’s demented utterances are certainly damaging to Turnbull and the Liberals’ chances at the next election.

    Keep up the good work, for Australia’s sake!

  34. Good Morning


    Its tough. However its darkest before the dawn. This is the last roar of the haters.

    We know that ME is coming and the only question is when. However what has happened is that out of the pain and frustration we are going to get a better society as the haters prove they don’t have the backing they claim to have.

    This is a long term win to come out of the pain for LGBTI people.

    Be glad you are on the right side of history and that these dinosaurs are being recognised for what they are.

    With any luck the bashings and the suicides are going to be less as the homophobia is being called out and people recognise this and the ok from society is taken away even implicitly.

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