Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential’s latest produces an improved result for Malcolm Turnbull on personal approval – but not on voting intention.

The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research fortnight rolling average result has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with primary votes to follow later today (UPDATE: everybody steady, with Coalition on 36%, Labor 38%, Greens 10% and One Nation 7%). Nonetheless, Malcolm Turnbull records an encouraging result from Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have him up four on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 43% (UPDATE: Actually, he’s only up one point). Bill Shorten is at 37% and 47%, which compares with 36% and 47% a month ago (although The Guardian report says he is down three on disapproval – either this is wrong, or his disapproval rating is really 44%) (UPDATE: It’s the latter). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 42-28, little changed from last month’s 43-29.

The poll also finds 55% consider war between the United States and North Korea very or somewhat likely, versus 36% for somewhat or very unlikely. Asked to rate various potential concerns to personal safety, the order of concern ran terrorism, car accidents, nuclear warfare, catastrophic climate change, natural disasters, gang violence and family violence (of which you can make what you will). Also featured was a question on which major party best represents various interests, which produced familiar results.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,916 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. BIGD

    I suspect that counsel for Xenophon would have ascertained that Kennett’s was very equivocal in contradicting his position.

  4. CTar1

    I don’t think we suffer the American habit of associates writing judgment drafts.

    These would be a hardworking mob. Edelman’s British father-in-law bemoaned that his daughter married the only Australian male who did not like sport.

  5. I have given one example of not knowing the grandparents. If you are the child of a single mother and you do not know who your father is and your father then comes forward at some point and that relationship is established, then that might fix you suddenly with a descent status that would disqualify you from sitting in Parliament.

    Do either of those proposed scenarios actually apply to any of the 7 currently up before the court?

  8. I thought Roberts’ main defence was that his wife filled out the nomination form, although that could’ve been someone else.

    The media reports of today’s session just sounds circus-like. Imagine how the rest of the world would be receiving this and what must they think of our elected representatives!

  9. ” Imagine how the rest of the world would be receiving this and what must they think of our elected representatives!”

    I think we’d be ‘trumped’ by the goings on in / associated with the White House.

  11. Ctari

    Yes the Rubel/Yuan thing is really quite big news – especially since they are also allowing purchased of oil/gas in yuan backed with GOLD

    The current financial system is unraveling and the US could be the loser.

    I am not really acrosss why the $ losing its reserve status is such a major disaster but everyone I read seems to think it will massively drop he value of the dollar and push up the price of US imports. of course the US will not be able to borrow money so they will need to cut spending drastically probably triggering a massive recession.

  13. daretotread

    The Russians have been buying up gold big time in recent years,through thick and thin, so rumours about the main BRICS moving to break the US$’s reserve status may be true

  15. AR – the Common Law works incrementally. Judges make decisions based upon the facts before them and they try to align the case with previous cases, if possible. That is the ” ratio” of the case. They don’t go looking for unusual situations beyond those before the court and try to cover them in their judgment. If they crop up, future judges will deal with them. Sometimes, they may have to make an exception to the general rule, sometimes not. As Oliver Wendell Holmes said, the live of the law is experience, not logic.

  16. Ides – my guess is second half of next week. Someone will probably circulate a draft judgment tomorrow. Then it will be a question of how many want to join it or pen their own thoughts (dissent). But I’m sure they’ve dropped everything to get this out.

  18. Ides of March
    Yes , basically just the R+C part of BRICS, That is where the action is. Perhaps the US should have gone down Trump’s path of wanting better relations with Russia ? Russia+China v US not so appealing as US v China with Russia off to one side having reasonable relations with both sides.

  20. Kiefel would see it as a big feather in her cap if she could get the court 7-0 behind another big constitutional decision. Much easier without Dyson lurking about thinking he’s the only genius in the building.

  21. this comment:

    If you are the child of a single mother and you do not know who your father is and your father then comes forward at some point and that relationship is established, then that might fix you suddenly with a descent status that would disqualify you from sitting in Parliament.

    Covers Albanese’s case, he did not know the idenity of his father, who I believe was/is Italian until recently.

  22. Poroti

    I dont think India is doing all that badly, but are probably more concerned with Pakistan teetering on the edge of being a nuclear armed failed state. Who also just happens to hate India.

  25. 6 – 1

    X gets saved.

    The rest including Canavan f’d.

    Canavan introduced opinion they laid doubt on his Italian citizenship but this was introduced late and was not able to be tested from what I can see, so I’m not sure if it’s relevant.

    Also regarding the change of Italian law that they mention, my understanding that it wasn’t a change as such in the law but broadening it to recognise descent of the female line.

  26. “…Pakistan teetering on the edge of being a nuclear armed failed state.”

    That could well be one of the big ‘sleeper’ issues in coming years.

  28. Poroti

    I am not sure it is a deliberate effort to break the $US as reserve, but rather to get a bit of protection in case of US default and also in the case of Russia to minimise the impact of US sanctions.

    I assume that most finance watchers are a bit nervous about the size of the US debt and the possibility that Trump would default or else print their way out of debt causing its devaluation.

    By having the option to trade in other currencies, the Chinese and others can reduce their holdings of $US reserves and thereby their risks in case of a default.

  30. Poroti

    Yes I think that economically (and probably strategically) siding with Russia (or at least keeping them neutral) may have been a wiser strategy than driving them into the arms of China.

    I suspect it is now too late to repair the situation

  31. Ides of March

    Agree about India. India has been working pretty closely with Russia on joint ventures like the Brahmos missile. So they will be in the mix.

    The name BrahMos is a portmanteau formed from the names of two rivers, the Brahmaputra of India and the Moskva of Russia. Russia supplies 65% of the BrahMos’ components, including its ramjet engine and radar seeker.

    It is the world’s fastest anti-ship cruise missile in operation

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BrahMos

  33. This week, courtesy of Twitter, we were offered a glimpse of why more Americans chose Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump as the appropriate person to be president of the United States.

    On Monday night, Clinton (whose margin, by the way, was 2.9 million votes) tweeted up a storm. “This hasn’t gotten enough attn,” she wrote in her opener . “For the first time, Congress missed the deadline to reauthorize the Children’s Health Insurance Program.”

    It was the first of seven tweets in which she expressed a proper outrage over the failure of the House and Senate to renew a valuable piece of the government’s health-care safety net that provides insurance to some 9 million Americans under the age of 18.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/hillary-clinton-tweets-up-a-reminder-of-why-more-americans-chose-her/2017/10/11/c55541d6-aeb2-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html?utm_term=.71c5b4af52a8

    Compared with Trump’s tweets which are simply whingeing and belittling those who dare to disagree or oppose him.

  35. [John Reidy
    this comment:

    If you are the child of a single mother and you do not know who your father is and your father then comes forward at some point and that relationship is established, then that might fix you suddenly with a descent status that would disqualify you from sitting in Parliament.

    Covers Albanese’s case, he did not know the idenity of his father, who I believe was/is Italian until recently.]

    Many of these examples Donaghue raises are special extreme cases that no general rule could answer and would be for the court to decide as they arose.

    In the case above it is potentially unknowable if any issues arise from the father before he returns.

    After his return any issues that arise from the new knowledge you’ve obtained would need to be dealt with in a reasonable timely way to renounce any resultant citizenship.

    As long as this is done I can’t see how the HC would rule against you.

  36. CNN Politics
    27 mins ·
    President Donald J. Trump suggests that media companies which report critically on him should be punished by having their station licenses revoked.

    Methinks he’s been spending too much time ogling dictators like Putin and Kim Jong-un!

  37. I was wondering where Spicer got Trumble from.

    The movie Olympus Has Fallen. The Speaker of the House is called Trumble (played by Morgan Freeman)

  38. Dtt’s recurring speculation about the debts of the US are just ridiculous. There is no reason whatsoever to think the US might default or that its currency might not be accepted. The idea that Russia might represent a financial challenge to the US is also just fanciful.

  40. Briefly
    It is not the Russians who necessarily prefer gold but that china is offering to convert everyone’s yuan into gold if they so choose.

    In any case I am reading that there is a general trend back towards a gold backed standard – Russia is a huge gold producer as is China. If Saudi joins the system (and they were in Russia a few days ago), then there will be a decoupling of the Saudi/petrodollar arrangement. Brazil (or Australia) could purchase oil in yuan or rubles instead of dollars. It would probably make sense for Australia as we sell so much to China and there would be reduced transnational costs as we could get paid in yuan which we could then use to finance our purchases from China and also our purchases of oil from the ME.

  42. Ides:

    Spicer got Trumple out of his ass because he is woefully ignorant and demonstrably incurious about the world around him outside the GOP bubble he inhabited. He’d obviously never bothered to educate himself about the Aust PM despite the fact we are one the most faithful and reliable door mats when it comes to US foreign policy.

  47. Buying gold? They say that all the gold that has ever been produced could fit into a Olympic size swimming pool. The impulse to buy it is a hoarding reflex. This impulse represses investment and consumption….self defeating, creates poverty and destroys productive capacity….totally idiotic

  49. Neither the Chinese nor (still less) the Russians can supplant the dollar. Their currencies are not convertible….their financial systems really not up to it.

  50. I liked this from Donaghue.

    Shorter: It’s not my fault my client is nearly as dumb as Malcolm Roberts.

    [MR DONAGHUE: … The third really reflects the essential submission that the Attorney‑General developed in writing and orally, which was an attempt to accommodate as best we could the historical record on the one hand and a reading of Sykes v Cleary that treats it as governing more widely than just the naturalised persons with whom the case was directly concerned.]

    Although I think this more accurately reflects the Governments position.

    “The third really reflects the essential submission that the Attorney‑General developed in writing and orally, which was an attempt to accommodate as best we could the members of the Government appearing before you.

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