Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Newspoll reports Labor’s two-party lead widening, and Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead narrowing.

The first Newspoll in three weeks is a 54-46, compared with 53-47 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 36%, Labor is steady on 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation is steady on 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has also been cut from 46-29 to 42-31, although this isn’t reflected in the leaders’ approval ratings, which have Turnbull’s net rating improving from minus 20% to minus 17% while Bill Shorten is unchanged at minus 20% (we will have to wait a little longer for the exact approval and disapproval numbers). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1695. The Australian’s paywalled report is here.

UPDATE: The poll also records a narrowing in the lead for same=sex marriage, down six points since mid-August to 57%, with opposition up four to 34%. However, there is markedly higher support among those who have already voted or definitely tend to (61% to 34%) than among the non-definite (38% to 35%). However, only 15% say they have already voted, which surprises on the low side. A further 67% say they will definitely vote, with a further 7% saying they probably will. Support for the survey being held is down five points to 44%, with opposition up three to 46%. Another question finds 62% supporting “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if it legislates for same-sex marriage”, with only 18% opposed. Kevin Bonham has a very thorough account of all the polling related to the survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,409 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. briefly @ #1247 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:26 pm

    GG…I would have thought you would have some sympathy for the victims of prejudice. Catholics have certainly been the targets of sectarian repression both here and abroad. You’d be well versed in this. How is that you are indifferent to the prejudice – and the violence that is implicit in prejudice – that is directed against our LGB brothers, sisters, children and other loved ones?

    You’re the one judging the homosexual coupling choices. So, it’s you that is perpetuating any prejudice and repression.

  2. [briefly
    GG…I would have thought you would have some sympathy for the victims of prejudice. Catholics have certainly been the targets of sectarian repression both here and abroad. You’d be well versed in this. How is that you are indifferent to the prejudice – and the violence that is implicit in prejudice – that is directed against our LGB brothers, sisters, children and other loved ones?    ]

    Much the same question has been asked of Israel.

  3. Already participated may have not bothered but it was important to a friend so I did. GG just to understand it is the process you are boycotting, if you were a member of parliament and a bill was put before you, you would vote Yes correct.

  5. Brandis’ case seems wafer thin. There is not much to discern between Malcolm Robert’s circumstances and the others. Did his own ham-fisted attempts to clarify/renounce U.K. Citizenship dob himself in? Would he have been OK if he maintained blissful ignorance? Overseas birth is a factor, sure, but all of these people should have been reasonably aware of the possibility of foreign citizenship.

  6. Greensborough Growler
    briefly @ #1247 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:26 pm

    GG…I would have thought you would have some sympathy for the victims of prejudice. Catholics have certainly been the targets of sectarian repression both here and abroad. You’d be well versed in this. How is that you are indifferent to the prejudice – and the violence that is implicit in prejudice – that is directed against our LGB brothers, sisters, children and other loved ones?

    You’re the one judging the homosexual coupling choices. So, it’s you that is perpetuating any prejudice and repression.

    My view is precisely the opposite, as you well know. No-one should be “judged” on the basis of their sexuality or their gender. Rather than perpetuating repression, my view is it must be relieved. Prejudice has to be named and opposed.

    You view seems to be that legal protection is like a pie – that there is only so much to go around and that the protection of some means the oppression of others. This is just wrong. We can advance the protection of all by defending the equality of every individual.

    But you know that….which is why your defence of prejudice (that is, the defence of violence) is all the more mystifying.

  7. Steelydan @ #1253 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:33 pm

    Already participated may have not bothered but it was important to a friend so I did. GG just to understand it is the process you are boycotting, if you were a member of parliament and a bill was put before you, you would vote Yes correct.

    It’s a matter for the parliament and I’m never going to be a Parliamentarian. So, it will never arise.

  8. briefly @ #1256 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:37 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    briefly @ #1247 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:26 pm

    GG…I would have thought you would have some sympathy for the victims of prejudice. Catholics have certainly been the targets of sectarian repression both here and abroad. You’d be well versed in this. How is that you are indifferent to the prejudice – and the violence that is implicit in prejudice – that is directed against our LGB brothers, sisters, children and other loved ones?

    You’re the one judging the homosexual coupling choices. So, it’s you that is perpetuating any prejudice and repression.

    My view is precisely the opposite, as you well know. No-one should be “judged” on the basis of their sexuality for their gender. Rather than perpetuating repression, my view is it must be relieved. Prejudice has to be named and opposed.

    You view seems to be that legal protection is like a pie – that there is only so much to go around and that the protection of some means the oppression of others. This is just wrong. We can advance the protection of all by defending the equality of every individual.

    But you know that….which is why your defence of prejudice (that is, the defence of violence) is all the more mystifying.

    You say one thing and act differently. I’ll be kind and say you are disingenuous.

  9. No you have me wrong I did not know that was the reason was. I am 50 and I am not telling my the oldman that I voted yes not worth the grief.

  10. Steelydan,

    You are certainly correct that a whole range of people and organisations, for their own reasons, are pushing the “no” case.

    However, the most vocal people have been from the Australian Christian Lobby which has co-ordinated the “no” campaign; also the RW of politics such as Messrs Abbott, Abetz and Bernardi. Murdoch media identities have been interesting, with the Australian and Daily Telegraph generally criticising “yes”, while news.com.au which is aimed at a younger audience, is presenting the case for both sides.

    A point often missed is that many (possibly most) Christians do not regard the Australian Christian Lobby as representing their concerns and feel somewhat embarrassed at Lyle Shelton claiming to speak on their behalf.

    Those who make the most noise should expect to receive the most criticism.

  11. GG

    (Would have thought you’d agree that coupling with someone is a lifestyle choice. But, apparently no)

    So by that measure, why the angst about a coupling which is a lifestyle choice being recognised under the law equally?

    You are tying yourself in knots. You are utterly confused

  12. Greensborough Growler

    You say one thing and act differently. I’ll be kind and say you are disingenuous.

    I think you will struggle to find any instance that would support your claims here….Name one!

  13. briefly @ #1262 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:43 pm

    Greensborough Growler

    You say one thing and act differently. I’ll be kind and say you are disingenuous.

    I think you will struggle to find any instance that would support your claims here….Name one!

    You’re voting in this farce of a poll which you know is a meaningless process being executed over a considerable time and which allows you to judge the merits or otherwise of homosexual lifestyle choices in regard to their partnering behaviour.

  14. Are these endless arguments, in which no one convinces anyone else to change their mind, let alone effect anything at all in the world outside PB, going to go on for the next month?
    Yes, I realise it’s a rhetorical question.

  15. victoria @ #1261 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:43 pm

    GG

    (Would have thought you’d agree that coupling with someone is a lifestyle choice. But, apparently no)

    So by that measure, why the angst about a coupling which is a lifestyle choice being recognised under the law equally?

    You are tying yourself in knots. You are utterly confused

    I think it’s more you can’t tolerate differing points of view.

  16. homosexual coupling choices

    LOL. I am SO using heterosexual coupling choice to describe my relationship going forward! That’s gold.

  21. I heard today of a male couple (City of Melbourne) who say that for the first time in their lives they are being made to feel uncomfortable. This ‘survey’ is letting all the monsters out of the dungeon.

  23. Greensborough Growler
    briefly @ #1262 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:43 pm

    This says a lot about your own values, GG and nothing about mine. How is it that you can be indifferent to prejudice? Nay, that you can exercise it?

  25. briefly @ #1273 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:52 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    briefly @ #1262 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:43 pm

    This says a lot about your own values, GG and nothing about mine. How is it that you can be indifferent to prejudice? Nay, that you can exercise it?

    We can do this for ever. Your particpation in this sordid vote means you are the one exercising prejudice and potentially causing great harm to others.

    But, I see your cognitive dissonance knows no bounds on this particular subject. So, I’ll move on.

  26. lizzie
    I heard today of a male couple (City of Melbourne) who say that for the first time in their lives they are being made to feel uncomfortable. This ‘survey’ is letting all the monsters out of the dungeon.

    For sure, lizzie. Various members of my family have gone into seclusion. It’s too much for them.

  27. The Turnbull government has clawed back $4 billion from the budget deficit by making billions of dollars in savings from payments to disabled people, students and the unemployed.

    The figures from Tuesday’s final budget outcome show the government saved $1.1 billion on payments for services for disabled Australians between July 2016 and July 2017.
    …
    The government says the saving is also a result of fewer people being dependent on government support.

    Morrison says it is because there are more jobs.

    Nothing to do with harsh penalties?

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-claws-back-4-billion-from-budget-deficit-20170926-gyott8.html

  28. Is there any way that the constitutional clause can be said to consider dual citizens as eligible to run for Parliament just because they weren’t aware? No matter where the blame for the situation, if any, lies surely they were nevertheless ineligible at the time they entered Parliament and therefore disqualified?

  29. Dee Madigan‏Verified account @deemadigan · 2h2 hours ago

    ‘Disabled people, students and unemployed’ wow Scott Morrison, you must be so proud…http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-claws-back-4-billion-from-budget-deficit-20170926-gyott8.html …

  30. GG

    Nah. you are mistaken. I am more than okay with marriage equality being a reality in our society sooner than later. It will strengthen the fabric of our society. I am more than ready to embrace it. It is you who is struggling with this view.

  31. Citizen. they are the most vocal but the silence from other consevative religions is deafening, and I suspect it is because we are to scared to ask as we don’t want to hear the answer and the supporters of the yes vote are to scared to say so.
    If you follow the news as I do for every Christian leader that is supporting No there seems to be a Chritian leader suppoting Yes, but for Abbott, Abetz and his ilk sink the slipper in.

  32. GG
    O.K.
    So would I be close to understanding what your position may be in thinking that homosexual people are probably not making a choice about being attracted to the same sex, but they can choose not to act on that attraction in relation to actual sexual interaction?

  36. monica @ #1282 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:59 pm

    GG
    O.K.
    So would I be close to understanding what your position may be in thinking that homosexual people are probably not making a choice about being attracted to the same sex, but they can choose not to act on that attraction in relation to actual sexual interaction?

    How individuals deal with their sexuality is not my business.

    Homosexuality is not illegal and there are same sex couples already in the community.

    I believe these arrangements should be legalised through a civil process if that’s what they want.

    However, i don’t believe it is a marriage.

  37. Greensborough Growler
    briefly @ #1273 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:52 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    briefly @ #1262 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:43 pm

    This says a lot about your own values, GG and nothing about mine. How is it that you can be indifferent to prejudice? Nay, that you can exercise it?

    We can do this for ever. Your particpation in this sordid vote means you are the one exercising prejudice and potentially causing great harm to others.

    You’re really saying that by expressing support for equality I (and others) serve inequality. Nope. That does not work. You’re saying that the noble and the ignoble are the same. This is clearly false on its face.

    There is a No campaign. It consists of various slurs. It relies on the demonisation of the innocent. You’re trying such a stunt here.

    No-one is harmed by a call for the provision of equal recognition and protection of SS and opposite-sex relationships. This is about the establishment of equivalent rights at the commencement of, during and at the conclusion of voluntary and exclusive unions between adults.

  39. monica:

    Hetero or homsexual coupling choices is irrelevant in this debate – another red herring of lifestyle choice thrown up by those who oppose marriage equality. The question is whether the Marriage Act should apply equally to all couples be they same sex or opposite sex.

    Even if SSM becomes legal doesn’t mean opposite sex couples can’t eschew marriage in favour of defacto or ‘apartners’ or whatever type of relationship. It just means that same sex couples can legally marry.

  41. shiftaling @ #1278 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:56 pm

    Is there any way that the constitutional clause can be said to consider dual citizens as eligible to run for Parliament just because they weren’t aware? No matter where the blame for the situation, if any, lies surely they were nevertheless ineligible at the time they entered Parliament and therefore disqualified?

    Seems to be a very weak case.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-26/only-roberts-and-ludlam-wrongly-elected-commonwealth/8990398?utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=%3a8935&user_id=5581bd2e2113aab702251204df6535cecff490e697012fd4db52be28440af1c0&WT.tsrc=email&WT.mc_id=Email%7c%7c8935&utm_content=%25%25%3dRedirectTo(%40itemURL)%3d%25%25

  42. Meanwhile over The Ditch. Winston Peters I guessed would go National BUT maybe not.

    “Video footage has emerged of Winston Peters making a scathing attack on Bill English and a number of other MPs – saying they have created an unstable government that has exacerbated poverty.”
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11926450

    The report on Newshub said National launched a “four-pronged attack” on Peters – and now the kingmaker was out for revenge.

    Newshub political editor Patrick Gower claimed his source was a New Zealand First party insider.”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11926775

  43. Greensborough Growler
    monica @ #1270 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 6:50 pm

    GG
    Serious question. Do you actually think that being homosexual is a choice?

    Probably not. But, whomever you couple with is usually a choice.

    So, just like heterosexual coupling then.

  44. poroti @ #1294 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 7:13 pm

    Meanwhile over The Ditch. Winston Peters I guessed would go National BUT maybe not.

    “Video footage has emerged of Winston Peters making a scathing attack on Bill English and a number of other MPs – saying they have created an unstable government that has exacerbated poverty.”
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11926450

    The report on Newshub said National launched a “four-pronged attack” on Peters – and now the kingmaker was out for revenge.

    Newshub political editor Patrick Gower claimed his source was a New Zealand First party insider.”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11926775

    Looks like hard ball negotiating to me.

  45. ‘I believe these arrangements should be legalised through a civil process if that’s what they want.

    However, i don’t believe it is a marriage.’

    Neither do gays. Which is why they see the idea that they should settle for a civil process as discriminatory. It denies them the same rights as everybody else.

  46. lizzie
    monica

    GG has been taught to believe in the psychological benefit of the metaphorical hairshirt.

    That sounds perilously close to the argument for SSM: Why shouldn’t they be as miserable in a marriage as the rest of us?

    🙂

    I guess I had better add that I have been very lucky, and happy, in my choice.

    (or my wife’s, I seriously believe that it is the women who make the choice for the initiation of a heterosexual relationship!)

  47. Bill Shorten and Penny Wong visit the Korean DMZ. Photo of Shorten at Panmunjeom Joint Security Area where N – S talks occasionally take place. My daughter has visited and says it is a rather scary place.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-and-penny-wong-visit-korean-demilitarised-zone-amid-high-tensions-20170926-gyp9xn.html

    Ironically, the DMZ has created a haven for wildlife undisturbed by human activity.

  49. Winston Peters held a ministry in the NZ Labour Government following the 2005 election. He doesn’t like the Greens however. History indicates that he will extract a high price fir his support.

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