Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Newspoll reports Labor’s two-party lead widening, and Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead narrowing.

The first Newspoll in three weeks is a 54-46, compared with 53-47 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 36%, Labor is steady on 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation is steady on 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has also been cut from 46-29 to 42-31, although this isn’t reflected in the leaders’ approval ratings, which have Turnbull’s net rating improving from minus 20% to minus 17% while Bill Shorten is unchanged at minus 20% (we will have to wait a little longer for the exact approval and disapproval numbers). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1695. The Australian’s paywalled report is here.

UPDATE: The poll also records a narrowing in the lead for same=sex marriage, down six points since mid-August to 57%, with opposition up four to 34%. However, there is markedly higher support among those who have already voted or definitely tend to (61% to 34%) than among the non-definite (38% to 35%). However, only 15% say they have already voted, which surprises on the low side. A further 67% say they will definitely vote, with a further 7% saying they probably will. Support for the survey being held is down five points to 44%, with opposition up three to 46%. Another question finds 62% supporting “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if it legislates for same-sex marriage”, with only 18% opposed. Kevin Bonham has a very thorough account of all the polling related to the survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,409 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Every time the media think Turncoats had a good week Newpoll hardly ever changes its figures.They are still as thick as shit backing a loser like Turnbull.

  2. There is nothing that the Fibs are going to do in the next few months to turn any polling around.Its all over whatever they do.People have stopped listening and theyve already made their minds up about Turnbull.

  3. Trying to blame labor for the unholy mess they have made of the energy market has worked well….

    Bring in a policy Labor will support; split the party and lose.
    Bring in a policy that the mad right will support; mess up the country and market even further and lose.

    Which option will Turnbull take.

    A very hard rock or a very very hard place.

  4. Thats the whole point that the Fibs dont get. The more they blame Labor and target Shorten the less people listen to them.They are just like Rex. A broken record.

  5. Barnaby will lose in the HC. LNP will lose their majority. Turnbull will lose a vote on the floor & will go to the guv rather than face a by election where Tony Windsor wins & sticks it up ’em.

    Me, I hope they hang on so they do as much damage to themselves as possible. Death by a thousand self inflicted cuts.

    They have to vote on ME in the house & some of them will suicide rather than vote yes.

    Much joy

  6. Nice, I think part of last weeks Essential result was rounding (allowing for the different methodology and sampling).
    This result isn’t just a reflection of the last week.

    The SSM survey isn’t popular. Abbott isn’t a particularly sympathetic person.

  7. While no-one deserves to have violence used against them,and the culprits must face the full extent of the law for their actions, I wonder if Abbott overplayed the poor me look what those “yes” people did meme.

  8. It’s hard to understand what exactly is going on within the parliamentary Liberal party.

    There’s any number of things that ministers could pick out to get done that should not be of any concern between their factions and that Labor wouldn’t oppose but nothing gets done …

    The frustration must be intense.

    It’s no wonder Broadbent is calling it a day.

  9. Ctar1, an interesting example of the government not doing anything, the gas export restrictions are apparently on hold until the matter of the eligibility of DPM Joyce is resolved.

  10. silentmajority

    I don’t think that Windsor would stand but just the threat that he might seems enough.

    Maybe the HC will surprise us and effectively put them out of their misery.

  11. Apparently it’s all the fault of the lycra wearer. However I’m unconvinced that media ownership reforms would be a vote winner, nor telling an unwilling AGL to stick with coal at a clapped out power station.

    Mr Turnbull has marked his second anniversary as prime minister with official figures showing strong jobs growth, the passage of media ownership reforms and a move to curb electricity price spikes by forcing AGL to extend the life of its Liddell coal-fired power station or build new generators to replace it.

    But the government had to contend with another intervention from Tony Abbott on the eve of the Newspoll survey, with the former prime minister warning he would not support a clean energy target.

  12. @ Citizen

    The jobs growth does not match the lived experience of many Australians.

    Few care about media ownership refoms beyond a vague feeling that they benefit the big end of town.

    Lidell, what can I say… most Australians realise that extending the life of a 50 year old plant is a bad idea and probably isn’t economically feasible.

    The Government Gazette is living up to it’s reputation, frantically polishing the turd which is the L/NP government.

  13. This poll is a reflection of the continuing feeble record of household income growth and of the decadent state of the Liberals. They are incapacitated by division and their own ineptitude. As well, the SSM campaigns have put Tony Abbott back on the airwaves and screens. Voters will be appalled by this and will recoil from the Liberals.

    For mine, strangely perhaps, I think weak polling helps Turnbull. Abbott and the Crazy Branch will get the blame. The Liberals will also be well aware that the more of Abbott the voters see the less they like it. This will seal Abbott’s chances of a comeback.

  14. JR

    Gas export restriction is a good example of something that has to be done and both the Coalition and Labor know that.

    Turnbull could have just said stuff it and accepted Shorten’s offer to at least discuss if they could agree on how best to go about it.

    Instead Turnbull just gets the energy companies in and then he and Frydenberg come out of the meeting, get to the Press first and say the energy suppliers have agreed to do what the government wants … only to have the suppliers come straight back to say they agreed to no such thing.

    The banks same despite the government having much more leverage on them. They feel free to pretty much ignore the government.

    It’s pathetic.

  15. Media can tell themselves Turnbull is a winner with media reforms but no one gives a shit and those that do wouldn’t be happy with it apart from CEO’s and usual hacks.

    Essential results also showed coal obsession is more likely to be a vote loser than a winner. The coalition shouldn’t have made energy prices a critical issue because they can’t deliver and buck stops with the government so they will get the blame for it too.

  16. Doc Evatt not withstanding, since the Asylum seeker Malaysian decision, the left hasn’t had much joy in the High Court, so I am not confident about Joyce being ruled ineligible- happy to be proven wrong.

  17. CTar1,

    Not only is it pathetic, it looks pathetic, even to the most disengaged constituents.

    The Libs are now looking like the shemozzle that they have been for at least the last 5 years.

  18. Even turncoat Graham Richardson wrote an article in the Oz about Blackout Bill being a vote winner for Turnbull.Hes been spending too much time with right wing nutters that hes starting to believe them.

  19. Historical perspective. Kevin Rudd’s government started tanking in the polls when he walked away from ‘the greatest moral challenge of our generation’.

    Malcolm Turnbull, who crossed the floor and said he couldn’t lead a government which didn’t take Climate Change seriously, is now doing just that.

    He is now suffering the same fate as Kevin.

    Conducting Newspoll on a weekend where Climate Change was making it’s presence felt on the East Coast would have only helped to remind people of the craven capitulation to Tony Abbott of the Prime Minister. Again.

  20. In theory the ABC should report, this polling result.
    When asked previously, when Abbot was on his 30 poll losing trek, the ABC responded saying they would usually only report polling results that differed from previous ones, i.e. were newsworthy.

  21. What’s the point of having a job if you’re being paid peanuts? And have a Sword of Damocles hanging over your head with ‘Your EBA is going to be busted back to the Award’ inscribed on it? So you think, thanks for nothing!

  22. C@

    Well done Labor Party.

    Punters on the street will be greatly cheered by this ‘honour’ being bestowed on Richardson.

    A genuine hero of the people.

  23. C@t – thank you.

    Fulvio – Graham Richardson had some pretty radical surgery about a year ago and it seems to have worked, so far at least.

  24. I see from Google that he had a serious cancer scare last year.

    That probably explains his award from the ALP.

    Whilst I have contempt for what he became, I wish him well with his health issues.

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