Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Newspoll reports Labor’s two-party lead widening, and Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead narrowing.

The first Newspoll in three weeks is a 54-46, compared with 53-47 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 36%, Labor is steady on 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation is steady on 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has also been cut from 46-29 to 42-31, although this isn’t reflected in the leaders’ approval ratings, which have Turnbull’s net rating improving from minus 20% to minus 17% while Bill Shorten is unchanged at minus 20% (we will have to wait a little longer for the exact approval and disapproval numbers). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1695. The Australian’s paywalled report is here.

UPDATE: The poll also records a narrowing in the lead for same=sex marriage, down six points since mid-August to 57%, with opposition up four to 34%. However, there is markedly higher support among those who have already voted or definitely tend to (61% to 34%) than among the non-definite (38% to 35%). However, only 15% say they have already voted, which surprises on the low side. A further 67% say they will definitely vote, with a further 7% saying they probably will. Support for the survey being held is down five points to 44%, with opposition up three to 46%. Another question finds 62% supporting “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if it legislates for same-sex marriage”, with only 18% opposed. Kevin Bonham has a very thorough account of all the polling related to the survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,409 thoughts on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  6. Same-sex marriage 57 (-6) – 34 (+4).

    We’ll find out soon enough but it will be a bit of a concern if this is still the generic support question, rather than one about how people are actually voting.

    It concerns me polls are asking a question that might not be predictive. There may be significant numbers of people who will say they support legalising same-sex marriage but are ticking the No box for whatever reason.

  7. John Reidy @ #37 Sunday, September 24th, 2017 – 10:47 pm

    In theory the ABC should report, this polling result.
    When asked previously, when Abbot was on his 30 poll losing trek, the ABC responded saying they would usually only report polling results that differed from previous ones, i.e. were newsworthy.

    Which given the way the new Newspoll works will hardly ever happen.

  8. Tom Hawkins

    Great line, but I think, whatever you think of the individual, joking about people battling serious disease and probably with in a fair amount of pain is not funny at all.

  11. Reading the comments of the online Oz you can see the despondency in their bloggers words.They are already resigned to defeat,but Rex will still want rid of Shorten.

  13. This is what one of them wrote about their party: You are certainly right about losing to Australian Conservatives. I attended for the first time, a rally for Bernardi, last week on the Gold Coast. Mainly well heeled, self funded Gold Coasters, true Conservatives, they could not hold back the anger, of what has happened to their party, and there were hundreds of them. These people were the base, the true believers, the donators, the volunteers, the Liberal/Nat party members. Solid, educated, loyal, and now totally disgusted and looking elsewhere. Their contempt for Turnbull and the fifty four traitors was palpable, and this is not a Gold Coast reaction, it’s everywhere as the polls show. Turnbull has no intention of going, but as it gets closer to the election, and he realises he cannot win, he will bail out with ” Heath reasons” leaving a scramble to somehow present a United front to the country . The alternative is to dreadful to even think about. We are in one unholy mess.

  16. A R @ #64 Monday, September 25th, 2017 – 12:17 am

    Kevin Bonham @ #62 Monday, September 25th, 2017 – 12:09 am

    Among definitely/already voted, 61-34 lead to Yes.

    Seems like a strong implication of 61-39 then. Can’t fathom an explanation for “I definitely voted, but am not sure what I put” other than “I voted No but am ashamed to admit it”.

    Someone could claim to be sure that they will vote but unsure which way they will vote. Someone might also categorise mailing in a deliberately blank form as voting.

  18. http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/09/recent-polling-on-same-sex-marriage.html
    Recent Polling On The Same-Sex Marriage Postal Survey

    As reviewed by acknowledged Poll Bludger expert Player One, this article consists entirely of opinion and cannot possibly have any psephy content whatsoever. It is also obviously much too vehement to be taken seriously. 🙂

    In other news, five point something days to go in round 1 of my sidebar Not-A-Poll for best Aus PM of the last 45 years. At the end of round 1 Mr K Rudd and Mr J Howard may be taking Mr T Abbott to the Not-A-Court of Disputed Returns, alleging that he cheated.

  23. Thanks for the analysis KB.

    I wanted to ask, what will the graph of votes returned versus time look like?
    Last essential had 9% already returned.
    I think newspoll gave 15% for its sampling period.

    Where does it get to the point where so many have voted that the campaigning can have no real effect and the direct question “how did you vote” can give a fairly accurate answer?

  25. cud chewer @ #74 Monday, September 25th, 2017 – 1:21 am

    Thanks for the analysis KB.

    I wanted to ask, what will the graph of votes returned versus time look like?
    Last essential had 9% already returned.
    I think newspoll gave 15% for its sampling period.

    Where does it get to the point where so many have voted that the campaigning can have no real effect and the direct question “how did you vote” can give a fairly accurate answer?

    I have never seen a postal ballot with such a long return time but such a simple question, so I don’t really know. I’m a bit surprised the return rate as of late last week was still only 15%.

    Essential would normally be out Tuesday.

  26. I wish Abbott a tremendous amount of success at destroying this government out of spite and commend him on the effort he’s done so far. Long may his wrecking reign.


  27. John Reidy @ #37 Sunday, September 24th, 2017 – 10:47 pm

    In theory the ABC should report, this polling result.
    When asked previously, when Abbot was on his 30 poll losing trek, the ABC responded saying they would usually only report polling results that differed from previous ones, i.e. were newsworthy.

    A lot of the attack on the ABC I don’t support; what are they to do when their charter says balance and one of the parties leaves the plantation. The different treatment of polls under Gillard and Turnbull however is a damming indictment.

  29. Good Morning

    What a wonderful Newspoll result for progressives.

    I expected just a hold steady. Of course thats probably where we are at but every swing against the LNP is welcome.

    I put it down to two things.

    The High Court brought citizenship back into voters minds and the incompetence of government MP’s.

    A reaction to Abbott lying again. Over the last week there has been a lot of people reminding of the no cuts to education the ABC SBS promise comprehensively broken.

    As well as that there may have been an impact of corruption stories happening around the country the 4 corners story on councils not the least of them.

  30. Wrt the postal survey poll, why are Newspoll asking other questions about religion etc before they get to the voting behavior poll itself? Isn’t that push polling?

  32. Many of the press gallery were appalled by Turnbull’s pivot on energy, but thought it might work (I suppose given Mal’s ‘popularity’ compared to Shorten).

    The Essential poll last week tentatively confirmed this, however this NewsPoll kills any recovery stone dead, as such it should be reported widely.

  33. JR

    Its been covered on ABC Newsbreakfast. Just the survey though so the meme can be the drop in support for ME.

    Not a surprise with all the No campaigning happening. However no mention of the political party ratings.

  34. Good morning Bludgers : )
    So what part of Newspoll does ABC News Breakfast report at the top of the show?

    The drop in support for the Yes campaign on SSM!

    Nothing else!

    Sheesh!

  36. Cat

    The good point of course is that no matter how much the media does not report the newspoll it doesn’t change the results. Not reporting the results before hasn’t helped them. 🙂

  39. PBers have been happily reporting when they return their ‘survey’ forms, and that probably gives us a false picture of overall responses.

  40. 500 NFL Players Plan To Protest Trump During The National Anthem

    It is being reported that nearly one-third of all NFL players are planning to protest during the national anthem after Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on their freedom.

    Trump’s attacks on NFL players have set off a firestorm that is going to overshadow the games and the league itself.

    NFL owners gave Trump millions of dollars during the campaign. He repaid them by creating a controversy that could tear apart their sport. Everything Donald Trump touches dies, and 500 NFL players are set to make sure that the President doesn’t destroy their civil liberties.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/24/500-nfl-players-plan-protest-trump-national-anthem.html

  41. Lizzie

    What that means is more campaigning. So more outrage. More ugliness. etc.

    Of course that will probably mean more drop in support for the LNP

  42. Trump Unites The Country Against Him After Attacking NFL Players’ Free Speech

    The most divisive president in modern times seems to have united much of the country against his tyrannical attempt to suppress NFL players’ free speech.

    Trump can’t handle people of color having a say, so he attacked their free speech. Which is to say, Trump attacked free speech. It’s not going over well. If there is one skill at which Trump truly excels, it is unifying people against him and taking an issue that some might agree with him on and making it into an issue only a fool would be seen in public defending.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/24/divisive-president-modern-times-unites-country-attacking-nfl-players-free-speech.html

  43. This result also probably indicates that the Labor vote is not overly affected by their strong campaigning for a yes vote, if I read it correctly

  44. As Plot To Hide His Crimes Fails, A Former Prosecutor Says The One Word That Terrifies Trump

    Former federal prosecutor Preet Bharara explained why the word obstruction should terrify Trump during an interview on CNN.

    Look, I think everything you see from our armchair seats suggests that Robert Mueller is going to chase down everything that might suggest a crime has been committed by any associate, colleague, relative of the president, and also the president himself.

    But I think Bob Mueller, based on my knowledge of him, and based on, I think, what his lifetime of service as a prosecutor, as an FBI director indicates, is that he’s going to look at everything.
    TAPPER: Including obstruction?
    BHARARA: I think, clearly, one of the things he’s going to be looking at is obstruction.

    Special Counsel Mueller may already have ample evidence of obstruction of justice. Trump is fighting with the NFL and creating cultural firestorms everywhere because he is trying to take the focus off of his failing presidency and the Russia investigation.

    Trump is scared, and the words of Bharara should only add to his terror.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/24/plot-hide-crimes-fails-prosecutor-word-terrifies-trump.html

  45. cher: Never Thought ANY1 Would Try & Ruin Beloved (football basketball emojis) But This Is What Happens When trump Sounds More Like Racist Drunk, Ranting At a Bar,Than Pres.

  46. Jared Kushner used private email account to conduct White House business: report

    President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior White House aide Jared Kushner has used a private email account that he set up after the 2016 election to conduct official White House business and to communicate with other staffers, said Politico on Sunday.

    “Kushner uses his private account alongside his official White House email account, sometimes trading emails with senior White House officials, outside advisers and others about media coverage, event planning and other subjects, according to four people familiar with the correspondence,” Politico’s Josh Dawsey reported, adding that reporters have seen and verified about two dozen emails.

    This comes after Trump campaigned heavily on “Crooked Hillary” Clinton’s use of a private email server during her time as Secretary of State. The president returned to that theme on Friday night when he led a crowd at a campaign rally in a chant of “Lock her up!”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/jared-kushner-used-private-email-account-to-conduct-white-house-business-report/

  47. ‘We’re not going to be dictated to by a racist, fascist white supremacist’: Ex-NFLer Chris Kluwe blisters Trump

    Appearing on CNN, former Minnesota Vikings kicker Chris Kluwe absolutely unloaded on President Donald Trump, bluntly calling him a “racist, fascist, white supremacist.”

    “Well, I think that the players and the teams are saying that they are not going to be dictated to by a racist, fascist white supremacist who currently occupies the highest place in our government,” Kluwe responded. “When you look at what Donald Trump has said about speaking out against Nazis, I think it’s fantastic that players and owners are now taking a stand in using the platform to speak out against this because this is not what America is.”

    “America is not a fascist military state where its devotion to the flag above all,” he continued. “Right now our nation is not holding up its end of the social contract, especially with communities of color.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/were-not-going-to-be-dictated-to-by-a-racist-fascist-white-supremacist-ex-nfler-chris-kluwe-blisters-trump/

  50. Good point, Shiftaling, Labor’s campaigning for Yes hasn’t hurt them.

    Also they have been pursuing the government on other issues as well. It was thought Labor campaigning for Yes would make then unable to question the government on other areas.

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