Essential Research has Labor’s lead back to 53-47 after a dip to 52-48 last week, with both the Coalition and Labor on 37% of the primary vote, which is one down in the Coalition’s case and one up in Labor’s. The Greens are steady on 10%, and One Nation is down one to 7%. After last week’s poll had a headline-grabbing dip in support for same-sex marriage, this week’s has it back up: support has been registered at 59% three weeks ago, 55% last week and 58% this week, with opposition tracking from 31% to 34% to 33%. Forty-four per cent of supporters report having voted, compared with only 28% of opponents. Further questions probe the impact of the no campaign’s efforts to shift the focus to religious freedom: 34% of respondents profess themselves concerned about the impact of allowing same-sex marriage on religious freedom, with 58% not very concerned or not at all concerned, and 24% say their concerns have increased “over the last couple of weeks”, compared with 61% for stayed the same and 5% for decreased.
The survey also contains an intriguing set of questions on beliefs in various religious and scientific questions, which show rather a lot more people than I might have figured believe in heaven and hell, angels and demons, ghosts, extraterrestrial visitations and the biblical account of creation. However, few outside The Australian’s op-ed page believe global warming is a hoax perpetrated by scientists; even fewer believe that vibrations from wind farms can cause long-term health damage; and fewer still believe that vaccines cause the autism. A further series of questions on private health insurance finds strong support for government intervention to keep down premiums.
There was also a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia in Saturday’s edition of The West Australian, which had the Coalition ahead 51-49, representing a 3.7% swing to Labor compared with last year’s election – a fairly modest result compared with other polling from the state. After exclusion of the 8% undecided, the primary votes are Coalition 39.2% (48.7% at last year’s election), Labor 30.8% (32.5%), Greens 13.3% (12.1%) and One Nation 10.7%. The poll also recorded a 63-37 split in favour of same-sex marriage, and found strong support for measures in the recent state budget to increase the gold mining royalty rate (58% in favour) and increase payroll tax on businesses with payrolls of over $100 million (61% in favour), although the cutting of 3000 public sector jobs had only 34% support, with 37.5% opposed. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1723.