Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research records movement to Labor; ReachTEL provides a relatively good result for the Coalition on federal voting intention in Western Australia; both suggest yes should win big in the same-sex marriage survey.

Essential Research has Labor’s lead back to 53-47 after a dip to 52-48 last week, with both the Coalition and Labor on 37% of the primary vote, which is one down in the Coalition’s case and one up in Labor’s. The Greens are steady on 10%, and One Nation is down one to 7%. After last week’s poll had a headline-grabbing dip in support for same-sex marriage, this week’s has it back up: support has been registered at 59% three weeks ago, 55% last week and 58% this week, with opposition tracking from 31% to 34% to 33%. Forty-four per cent of supporters report having voted, compared with only 28% of opponents. Further questions probe the impact of the no campaign’s efforts to shift the focus to religious freedom: 34% of respondents profess themselves concerned about the impact of allowing same-sex marriage on religious freedom, with 58% not very concerned or not at all concerned, and 24% say their concerns have increased “over the last couple of weeks”, compared with 61% for stayed the same and 5% for decreased.

The survey also contains an intriguing set of questions on beliefs in various religious and scientific questions, which show rather a lot more people than I might have figured believe in heaven and hell, angels and demons, ghosts, extraterrestrial visitations and the biblical account of creation. However, few outside The Australian’s op-ed page believe global warming is a hoax perpetrated by scientists; even fewer believe that vibrations from wind farms can cause long-term health damage; and fewer still believe that vaccines cause the autism. A further series of questions on private health insurance finds strong support for government intervention to keep down premiums.

There was also a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia in Saturday’s edition of The West Australian, which had the Coalition ahead 51-49, representing a 3.7% swing to Labor compared with last year’s election – a fairly modest result compared with other polling from the state. After exclusion of the 8% undecided, the primary votes are Coalition 39.2% (48.7% at last year’s election), Labor 30.8% (32.5%), Greens 13.3% (12.1%) and One Nation 10.7%. The poll also recorded a 63-37 split in favour of same-sex marriage, and found strong support for measures in the recent state budget to increase the gold mining royalty rate (58% in favour) and increase payroll tax on businesses with payrolls of over $100 million (61% in favour), although the cutting of 3000 public sector jobs had only 34% support, with 37.5% opposed. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1723.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,720 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Very strange results on the Essential with regard to belief s in heaven and hell, angels and demons, ghosts vs. climate change being a hoax, vaccination causing autism.

  2. We should not be surprised. Tony Abbott still believes he can be prime minister.

    Interesting too that even among Lib/Nat voters Yes is higher than No. Is the No campaign costing the coalition votes?

  3. monica

    Very strange results on the Essential with regard to belief s in heaven and hell, angels and demons, ghosts vs. climate change being a hoax, vaccination causing autism.

    Indeed, and especially since we are, by and large, a secular country, at least so far as church attendance is concerned. We can no longer consider ourselves superior to the US so far as strange beliefs go in the general population.

    As someone suggested previously, we need some extra questions, viz:

    Do you believe in Santa Claus?
    Do you believe in the tooth fairy?
    Do you believe that the earth is flat?

  4. don @ #4 Wednesday, September 27th, 2017 – 6:00 am

    As someone suggested previously, we need some extra questions, viz:

    Do you believe in Santa Claus?
    Do you believe in the tooth fairy?
    Do you believe that the earth is flat?

    If you read to much Terry Pratchett the answers are,
    1. Not Santa, but the Hog Father
    2. Yes.
    3. Yes, and it is carried on four elephants on the back of the great Artu (A giant Turtle)

  5. To put it another way; the nutters that claim to be the silent majority need to have their noses rubbed in the fact that they are a noisy minority. The higher the yes vote the sorer their noses.

    Kevin Bonham
    Their emboldening will come from the percentage for No, not from the turnout, so by this argument it makes no sense to abstain, if one has any choice. Indeed on this basis an abstention is potentially a vote in favour of similar votes being attempted to obstruct and delay voluntary euthanasia, or as a precursor to reactionary attempts to bring back capital punishment. Abstention is consent to whatever may come after.

  6. Good Morning


    It goes back to the poem from Auchswitz.

    First they came for the socialists. Then they came for the gays then they came for the gypsies etc.

  7. A huge win. Its going to be interesting as change comes for this country. Hopefully we will see the end of stoning of people.

    Saudi Arabia said today that it will issue driver’s licenses to women for the first time. It was previously unlawful for them to get behind the wheel.

    The announcement follows years of criticism of the conservative kingdom by human rights groups, which have campaigned for an end to Saudi Arabia’s longstanding ban on driving by women. The Muslim nation is ruled by a monarchy and follows a strict version of Sharia, or Islamic law.

  8. White House Refuses To Answer If Kushner and Ivanka Trump Leaked Classified Info In Private Email

    The White House refused to answer when asked if Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump leaked classified information by using private email.

    After they made such a big deal over Hillary Clinton’s email, the Trump White House only had one simple rule to follow. Don’t use private email for government business. However, this administration is so lawless and entitled that they feel that laws don’t apply to them.

    The Trump White House is drowning in a sea of their own ineptitude and corruption.

  9. Rachel Maddow Has Trump Shaking As She Is Now Dominating Cable News

    Rachel Maddow’s tireless coverage of the Russia scandal has made her MSNBC program #1 in total viewers, viewers age 25-54, and is the first MSNBC show ever to lead the rating for an entire quarter in total viewers.

    Under normal circumstances, it is difficult to prove a relationship between cable news ratings and American politics, but Maddow and Trump are a unique case. Maddow is focusing on the one story that could end the Trump presidency. Maddow’s reporting on Russia and Trump has record numbers of viewers tuning in, and the vast majority of those viewers aren’t supporting the President.

    Rachel Maddow is being rewarded by viewers because she is cutting through the clutter and providing clarity to chaos.

    For a president who needs divisiveness and distraction to survive, Rachel Maddow is Trump’s worst nightmare.

  10. Roger Stone’s Trump Defense Backfires As He Carefully Avoids Russia Collusion Question

    Roger Stone told the media Tuesday after testifying in a closed hearing on the Trump Russia probe of the House of Representatives Intelligence Committee that he “expressed my view” that he is “aware of no evidence whatsoever of collusion by the Russian state or the Trump campaign or anyone associated with Donald Trump.”

    Stone’s “view” disagrees with the U.S. intelligence community. His “view” denies established facts in order to claim that there was no collusion.

    This is being reported as an outright denial of collusion, but that’s not how he framed it to CNN and when he does, his statement is predicated on his view that the folks he was communicating with were not Russians or Russian fronts. This “view” is very important, because it seems to be inaccurate.

  11. Trump’s Russia Inner Circle Is Crumbling As Mike Flynn Indictment Seen As A Certainty

    Politico reported on Tuesday that an indictment is “virtually certain” against Mike Flynn, too.

    It’s been a given, even reportedly by Manafort’s lawyers, that he is going to be indicted. But Politico reported on Tuesday that an indictment is “virtually certain” against Mike Flynn, too.

    “Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort are almost sure to be indicted as a result of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election,” Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal told Politico.

    “I’m about 99 percent sure there will be some criminal charges from this investigation,” said Blumenthal, who is a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. However, he is less certain, according to Politico, that Trump will face charges as a result of Mueller’s investigation.

  12. Trump Breaks Down During Press Conference And Complains That All He Does Is Work

    At one point during a joint press conference at the White House, Donald Trump, who takes nearly every weekend off, complained about how all he ever does is work as president.

    The President apparently believes that tweeting is work, and that rambling about NFL ratings on Twitter is part of his job. A president’s job is to govern, and Trump has done no governing and has zero major legislative accomplishments during his first year in office.

    Donald Trump is not living in reality, but if he thinks tweeting about the NFL is work, it explains why he is failing as president.

  13. ‘Who raised these people?‘: MSNBC’s Morning Joe pounds ‘ignorant’ Alabama voters who booed John McCain

    MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough lambasted Alabama voters who went along with President Donald Trump’s efforts to turn Sen. John McCain’s name into a punchline.

    The “Morning Joe” host, who graduated from the University of Alabama, was disgusted by Trump’s personal attacks on the Arizona Republican — a Vietnam War hero who is battling brain cancer — for voting against repealing the Affordable Care Act.

    “No humanity,” Scarborough said. “You have a man who is dying and you are using him for political punch lines on talk radio, and also audiences in Alabama?”

  14. For those who missed George Brandis’s 36 page submission to the HC on S.44 last night, here it is

    It contains some interesting bakground to citizenship law over the centuries, and also the Constitutional debates in the late 19th century.

    In short, Brandis argues for a low bar, so low that nobody but the truly indolent and mendacious would risk tripping over it. Only Ludlum and Roberts meet the ‘Brandis Test’, with the other 5 walking free.

  15. Twitter: Can’t fit your Tweet into 140 characters?
    We’re trying something new with a small group, and increasing the character limit to 280! Excited about the possibilities? Read our blog to find out how it all adds up.…
    Twitter change reaction

    nickbilton: Son, I remember a time when a world leader only needed 140 characters to declare a war on here. Now it takes ‘em 280 characters to do it.
    JoshButler: Everyone on Twitter: plz do something about the harassment, abuse, racism & homophobia on here

    Twitter: we’re doubling the character limit…

  16. For Old Barnyard. Can’t remember he’s a kiwi, can’t remember there is coal-seam gas under the mongrel land he bought. The only thing he can remember is Gina’s phone number.

  17. Mueller probing three donors with ties to Russia who contributed $2 million to funds controlled by Trumps

    Special Counsel Robert Mueller is investigating the timing of nearly $2 million in contributions to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign by three American donors with “significant Russian business connections,” ABC News reports.

    As ABC notes, the Center for Responsive Politics revealed two large donors to Trump’s campaign were born in the former Soviet Union, and a third “heads the subsidiary of a large Russian private equity firm.” The three persons of interest reportedly began donating to the Republican National Committee just as Trump became the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. They also donated a total of $1.25 million to Trump’s inaugural fund.

  18. IRS now sharing information with special counsel Mueller: report

    The Internal Revenue Service is sharing information with special counsel Robert Mueller about top Donald Trump aides, following a months-long battle between the two entities over what information the IRS is able to share, CNN reports.

    Mueller is investigating as far back as 11 years into former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort’s financial dealings, which as CNN notes appears to be covered by the special counsel’s directive to look into “any links and/or coordination between the Russian government and individuals associated with the campaign of President Donald Trump,” as well as “any matters that arose or may arise directly from the investigation.”

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Rank behaviour as a result of rank in the RSL.
    Home buyers who stretched themselves to enter the property market while interest rates were at record lows could be “vulnerable” to economic shocks, a senior Reserve Bank official says.
    North Korean government officials have been quietly trying to arrange talks with Republican-linked analysts in Washington, in an apparent attempt to make sense of President Donald Trump and his confusing messages to Kim Jong-un’s regime.
    David Wroe on the visit to South Korea by Shorten and Wong.
    This researcher spent a year under cover with the far right and tells us we must not let their hatred spread.
    Nicholas Stuart gets stuck in to Defence for its disastrous choices in land-based equipment.
    One of Australia’s most senior energy advisers has pleaded with the Turnbull government to end its paralysis over a clean energy target, saying the lack of clarity is hurting consumers already hit by soaring power prices.
    Of the seven federal MPs hauled before the High Court over their citizenship status, only One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts and Greens senator Scott Ludlam were wrongfully elected, the Commonwealth contends. Adam Gartrell looks at the submission. Has George Brandis put forward the “it’s the vibe” argument?
    Proselytising Paul Kelly is now demanding a bill for religious freedom. Google.
    The living standards of low-paid workers were not taken into account by the Fair Work Commission when it decided to slash penalty rates, the hospitality workers’ union has told the Federal Court.

  20. I am not confident about the HC decision, without coming out and a leftist conspiracy theorist, I think politically the court is fundamentally conservative and would let a threat like this disrail the government.

  21. Section 2 . . .

    Peter Lewis writes that when politics is built on shifting factual sands, it’s difficult to erect anything of substance. There’s no easy way to reverse the rise of post-truth in Australia.
    Pia Ackerman tells us that heavily promoted “discounts” from electricity retailers are virtually meaningless and may offer worse or comparable prices to non-discounted offers, prompting Victoria’s utilities regulator to call for a pricing overhaul to improve transparency in energy pricing. Google.
    The SMH editorial says that the shape-shifting nature of modern terrorism requires constant innovation in response to a continuously morphing threat.
    Five ways to solve the gas crisis – or not. Not a lot of joy here.
    To avoid crisis, the gas market needs a steady steer, not an emergency swerve.
    Archbishop Coleridge has gone to ground after this appearance.
    The archbishop certainly created a fair bit of reaction.
    The Australian Bureau of Statistics has engaged an independent auditor to assist it in conducting Malcolm Turnbull’s $122 million postal survey on same-sex ¬marriage. Google.
    Trump knows and uses the depths of American bigotry.
    The scenarios for war in Korea are frightening.

  22. Kim Jong Un is asking Republicans to help him decode Trump’s ‘confusing’ rants: report

    North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is reportedly so confused by President Donald Trump’s constant rage tweets that he is trying to enlist the help of Republican foreign policy experts in an effort to understand them.

    The Washington Post reports that North Korean government officials have been “quietly trying to arrange talks with Republican-linked analysts in Washington” for help understanding the president, who has repeatedly threatened to completely destroy North Korea if it keeps behaving in a way that is threatening to the United States.

    “My own guess is that they are somewhat puzzled as to the direction in which the U.S. is going, so they’re trying to open up channels to take the pulse in Washington,” former State Department official Evans Revere told the Post. “They haven’t seen the U.S. act like this before.”

  23. Section 3 . . .

    A commitment to build a $2.5b coal-fired power station in Townsville makes no environmental or economic sense. But it might just make political sense.
    Mr77 Roberts could be replaced in the Senate by Mr 19 Anning!
    Barnaby Joyce has been accused of a conflict of interest due to claims he could personally benefit from the Turnbull government’s push to develop coal seam gas near land owned by the Deputy Prime Minister.
    The government should combat backlash against globalisation by increasing redistribution and investing more in social programs in areas with new migrants, the shadow assistant treasurer, Andrew Leigh, has argued in a new paper presented to the Lowy Institute.
    Clive Palmer paid for his fugitive nephew Clive Mensink’s trips to the Dominican Republic, Fiji, Amsterdam and Ireland as he dodged court orders to return to Australia, his personal assistant revealed yesterday. Oh dear, Clive! Google.
    Jenna Price writes about the latest problem inside Channel Seven.
    The Murray-Darling Basin Authority knew about allegations of substantial water theft as early as July 2016 but took no serious action until an ABC investigation broadcast new claims a year later, documents obtained by the Guardian reveal. When parliament resumes Labor and the Greens should be all over this.
    Ross Gittins tells us that ten years on we’re still not back to normal after the GFC.
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons gives six steps to use in deciding how to vote in the SSM survey.

  24. Section 4 . . .

    Australians who oppose equal rights for gay couples are less intelligent than those who don’t, according to a statistical analysis of the largest ongoing study of Australians’ attitudes, health, education and finances. Google.
    When people claim ‘equality has gone too far’, it might just be starting to make a difference.
    Cory Bernardi and Tony Abbott have been exposed as homophobic extremists who exploit circumstances to their advantage but these tactics have backfired for both of them this time, writes Jennifer Wilson.,10755
    Why introverts make better bosses but often don’t get the chance to prove it.–but-dont-get-the-chance-to-prove-it-20170926-gyp3v0.html
    Early adopters of new software updates have been warned by one expert they are often used as “guinea pigs” and Apple iPhone users should consider holding off on downloading the company’s iOS 11 update.
    Michael West reports that French drug giant Sanofi is the textbook case of the tax-avoiding, corporate-welfare-loving multinational colossus taking Australian taxpayers and consumers to the cleaners. An investigation of nine years of financial statements by Sanofi-Aventis Australia Pty Ltd, has found the company paid income tax of just $106.5 million on revenues of $7.5 billion, just 1.4 per cent.

  25. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox with a modern defence shield,

    Here’s a good caricature of Ian Narev.

    Matt Golding and the escalation in Korea.

    Ron Tandberg and the “changing” Abbott.
    Peter Broelman is unimpressed with Cocaine Cassie’s case.

    Mark Knight and Turnbull’s gas problem.
    Paul Zanetti with a low blow on Turnbull and Frydenberg,

    Matt Golding with the week ahead for the Richmond Tigers.

    Alan Moir nails Abbott.

    David Pope’s view of Merkel’s victory.

  26. This is the week Robert Mueller rips Donald Trump’s White House apart – Bill Palmer

    Mueller is about to tear Trump’s White House apart in order to get to him.

    Mueller’s “interviews” with Trump’s top White House staffers are set to begin later this week, according to a new CNN report . We use the word “interviews” in quotes because that’s largely just a euphemism for what these folks will truly be subjected to. If they lie to try to protect themselves or Trump, that’s a crime. If they fail to be forthcoming, that’s obstruction, also a crime. And that’s when the fun begins – just not for them.

    Mueller is going after softer targets. Does anyone think that folks like Sean Spicer and Reince Priebus are willing to go to prison?

    Earlier this month there was already scattered reporting that some of Trump’s White House senior advisers were showing up to work each day in fear that their co-workers might be wearing a wire for Robert Mueller. Once these interviews begin, they’ll trust each other even less. Paranoia will become the only rule. Mueller will have ripped Trump’s White House apart simply by “interviewing” these people. The chaos will be off the charts, and the collapse will be underway

  27. pRED – spot on. There is already a lot of paranoia & chaos in the WH so the next month or so will be fascinating.
    Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of people.
    How The Trump will react will also be attention getting.

  28. don

    As someone suggested previously, we need some extra questions, viz:

    Do you believe in Santa Claus?
    Do you believe in the tooth fairy?
    Do you believe that the earth is flat?

    The study in the ABC article showing lower cognitive ability of NO voters is likely, in my opinion, to extrapolate to conservatives in general.
    Pollsters should incorporate more questions as you suggest to obtain a cognitive profile of the different voting groups.
    Progressives always complain about the difficulty in engaging in rational argument with conservatives who seem to be more likely to be driven by ideology, more likely to lie, and more likely to rationalise positions they perceive to be in their interest.
    This may well reflect the facts, not just progressive bias.

  29. We could still end up with Roberts again.

    No one involved in the proceedings will talk about what’s likely to happen. However the matter could become clearer after Anning’s next court date, on October 3.

    If he is bankrupted he too will be ruled constitutionally ineligible to remain in the Senate.

    That would hand One Nation a casual vacancy that it could fill with anyone it wanted, including Roberts – who has now disposed of that pesky foreign allegiance – or Pauline Hanson’s sister, Judy Smith. Smith was fourth on the One Nation Queensland Senate ticket last year, and outpolled Anning with 47 votes.

  30. While all eyes have been looking North towards the DPRK as rockets are fired a growing menace to the East has been quietly at work.

    Rockets will soon be blasting off from northern Hawke’s Bay again,……….The Auckland-based company yesterday said it would fly payloads for clients Planet and Spire on its upcoming second test flight titled “Still Testing” from its Launch Complex 1 site at Mahia Peninsula

  31. Trog

    If it’s the HILDA study I posted the other day, yes, it shows that those who take progressive issues in general have more ‘cognitive ability’ than others. The study was adjusted for age, gender, education etc….

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