Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Leads for Labor and same-sex marriage have both narrowed in this week’s Essential Research poll.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has an unusual two-point movement in favour of the Coalition in its fortnight rolling average, cutting Labor’s lead from 54-46 to 52-48. No word yet on the primary vote. The other big finding from the poll is that support for same-sex marriage was recorded at 55%, down four points on a fortnight ago, with opposition up three to 34%. Once again though, supporters report higher likelihood to vote, with yes leading 59% to 37% among those who said they had voted already. Other questions find belief in climate change caused by human activity up four points since February to 60%, with only 24% favouring the alternative option of “we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the Earth’s climate”, down one. Other questions rate to cost of living concerns (topped by utilities and housing) and wage increase (52% said they had not received one in the past year).

UPDATE: Full results here. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 38%, Labor is down one to 37%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is down one to 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

533 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Greensborough Growler @ #447 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:37 pm

    bemused @ #447 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:30 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #431 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:14 pm

    bemused @ #423 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:08 pm

    confessions
    adrian:

    I caught up with Roger Corbett from last night. Where does our media find these dinosaurs?

    Got GG to provide a list of his mates. 😐

    You’ve been remarkably amphibious during the SSM debate. perhaps you can out yourself about your true feelings and opinions. It would be more interesting than going with the usual snark.

    What do you want to know other than I voted yes?

    While I’m not trying to verbal you, you were fairly ambivalent a few weeks ago.

    Most PBers would be interested in your transitional process.

    Cheers.

    You must be going back a long while as I shifted solidly yes quite some time ago.
    See for example exchanges with the P1 troll.

    What you may have mistaken for ambivalence in recent times may have been an expectation that it would not go ahead. I was wrong on that unfortunately.

    I have said a lot less than some as I don’t see this as a forum where anyone is persuadable. I put my effort in elsewhere and it was productive.

  3. GG

    With all due respect right back, I would like a clearer answer. Ignoring the current survey and as such, do you think SSM is inevitable?

  8. Greensborough Growler @ #452 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:41 pm

    With respect, I think the 60/60 analysis will destroy the Yes vote. 36% ain’t overwhelming support.

    No, it’s strictly better than 40/60 support. 36% is a bigger number than 24%. By an entire 50%.

    The bigger number wins, that’s how the process works. Unless you’re in America, where the number that’s smaller by 3 million wins due to some archaic nonsense involving land area and population density.

  10. Ides of March @ #454 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:48 pm

    GG

    With all due respect right back, I would like a clearer answer. Ignoring the current survey and as such, do you think SSM is inevitable?

    I’ve always said that civil unions should be legalised if people want that.

    So, some accommodation in that direction is possible.

    Although, the Yessers have been fairly disgraceful in the way they have prosecuted their argument.

    I’ve said this before on PB. But, if it’s all or nothing in a political argument, “Prepare for Nothing”.

  12. A R @ #459 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:51 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #452 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:41 pm

    With respect, I think the 60/60 analysis will destroy the Yes vote. 36% ain’t overwhelming support.

    No, it’s strictly better than 40/60 support. 36% is a bigger number than 24%. By an entire 50%.

    The bigger number wins, that’s how the process works. Unless you’re in America, where the number that’s smaller by 3 million wins due to some archaic nonsense involving land area and population density.

    If you think so.

    Don’t know how it’ will run in the real world.

  13. bemused @ #453 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:47 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #447 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:37 pm

    bemused @ #447 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:30 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #431 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:14 pm

    bemused @ #423 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:08 pm

    confessions
    adrian:

    I caught up with Roger Corbett from last night. Where does our media find these dinosaurs?

    Got GG to provide a list of his mates. 😐

    You’ve been remarkably amphibious during the SSM debate. perhaps you can out yourself about your true feelings and opinions. It would be more interesting than going with the usual snark.

    What do you want to know other than I voted yes?

    While I’m not trying to verbal you, you were fairly ambivalent a few weeks ago.

    Most PBers would be interested in your transitional process.

    Cheers.

    You must be going back a long while as I shifted solidly yes quite some time ago.
    See for example exchanges with the P1 troll.

    What you may have mistaken for ambivalence in recent times may have been an expectation that it would not go ahead. I was wrong on that unfortunately.

    I have said a lot less than some as I don’t see this as a forum where anyone is persuadable. I put my effort in elsewhere and it was productive.

    Bit disappointing that you need to sledge P1.

    But, fair enough. I don’t pay much attention to your posts these days.

    Didn’t see the subtlety in your position.

    Cheers.

  18. Greensborough Growler @ #463 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:57 pm

    Don’t know how it’ will run in the real world.

    I think something along the lines of:

    1. The right screams bloody murder about one made-up contrivance or another.
    2. Turnbull caves, and introduces further delays into the process or otherwise sabotages it.
    3. Labor is elected.
    4. Marriage Equality.

  20. Greensborough Growler

    Boerwar @ #379 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 7:07 pm

    Folks

    I put the envelope with the ‘yes’ inside into the red tin box today.

    I would appreciate it if the GG camps, pro- and anti-, put a sock on it…
    … oh, wait.

    My ballot is feeding the worms, right now!

    Thank christ for that!

  22. Aung San Suu Kyi’s speech today really full of it.

    “We will cooperate with Bangladesh to take back those refugees who can be verified”.

    The Burmese military have spent the last decade or so taking any identification papers the Rohingyas had off them so bugger all of the 400,000 of them who have fled over the border will have anything that will verify them as previously living in Burma/Myanmar.

  23. A R @ #469 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 9:13 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #463 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:57 pm

    Don’t know how it’ will run in the real world.

    I think something along the lines of:

    1. The right screams bloody murder about one made-up contrivance or another.
    2. Turnbull caves, and introduces further delays into the process or otherwise sabotages it.
    3. Labor is elected.
    4. Marriage Equality.

    Lots of potential slippage after 1.

  26. From today’s Crikey.

    Federal Liberal Party vice-president Karina Okotel has become one of the figureheads of the No campaign, since announcing in the Australian that the “bigotry” she had encountered as an anti-marriage equality campaigner was worse than any racism she’d experienced.

    Yeesh I’m heartily sick of these No campaigner whingers and moaners. Vote No. Tell people why you’re voting No if that’s your gig. Or not if you don’t want people to criticise you for it. End of story.

    It was your choice to make a big production of why you’re voting the way you are, just as dinosaur Corbett did last night, and ended up looking like an idiot. You have as much right to vote the way you want as anyone else, but having made a big production out of it you look somewhat like a whiny loser now turning your media rant into a major mega-drama soap opera of epic proportion pity party. All you had to do was tick a box and stuff the form into a reply paid envelope. Not run to the media like a drama lama.

  33. GG

    I have been respectful of you having a different opinion. I think you know that I am not into berating people on PB for having a different view than I. I think you should show some courtesy as I have been showing you and answer the question with a yes or no. I am not interested in the why.

  34. Greensborough Growler

    Ides of March @ #480 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 9:35 pm

    GG

    Why wont you give a serious answer?

    15th march every year I give serious answers.

    Why would anyone care?

  38. Ides of March @ #484 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 9:42 pm

    GG

    I have been respectful of you having a different opinion. I think you know that I am not into berating people on PB for having a different view than I. I think you should show some courtesy as I have been showing you and answer the question with a yes or no. I am not interested in the why.

    Unfortunately for you, your needs are more important to you than they are to me.

    But, remember the great John lennon once sang.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqB8Dm65X18

  41. sonar

    Sorry no not into A League, just like watching the Matilda’s when I can (don’t have Fox). Not a big watcher on tv but have 3 girls who all play.

  44. SSM is inevitable. The next Labor govt will legislate for it if this current mob wont’.

    Confessions its 5 buckets of popcorn time.

    1. Yes result
    2. Right wing blow up the Libs
    3. Labor win
    4. Labor immediately enact SSM
    5. GG wriggles, squirms, obfuscates and then implodes

    Its a win, win, win, win, win situation 🙂

  47. “CTar1
    sonar/Aqualung

    C@ will be on to you two soon for turning this into a soccer blog.”…

    I was conducting an informal PB poll/survey…lol
    Cheaper than stamps.

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