Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Leads for Labor and same-sex marriage have both narrowed in this week’s Essential Research poll.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has an unusual two-point movement in favour of the Coalition in its fortnight rolling average, cutting Labor’s lead from 54-46 to 52-48. No word yet on the primary vote. The other big finding from the poll is that support for same-sex marriage was recorded at 55%, down four points on a fortnight ago, with opposition up three to 34%. Once again though, supporters report higher likelihood to vote, with yes leading 59% to 37% among those who said they had voted already. Other questions find belief in climate change caused by human activity up four points since February to 60%, with only 24% favouring the alternative option of “we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the Earth’s climate”, down one. Other questions rate to cost of living concerns (topped by utilities and housing) and wage increase (52% said they had not received one in the past year).

UPDATE: Full results here. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 38%, Labor is down one to 37%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is down one to 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

533 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Trump Disgracefully Brags To The UN That He Owns A Building Across The Street

    Donald Trump’s first words as president to the UN were to brag that he owns a building across the street and that it was a successful project.

    Donald Trump can’t measure up as a president, so he compensates by bragging about his business. No one at the UN cares about what building projects Trump is involved with or where they are. The United States is supposed to lead the world, but Trump is only interested in himself.

  2. Trump’s Lawyers Are At Each Other’s Throats And Cracking Under The Russia Scandal Pressure

    A bad sign for Donald Trump is that his legal team is openly fighting with each other in public as the Russia scandal is drawing closer to the President.

    The friction escalated in recent days after Mr. Cobb was overheard by a reporter for The New York Times discussing the dispute during a lunchtime conversation at a popular Washington steakhouse. Mr. Cobb was heard talking about a White House lawyer he deemed “a McGahn spy” and saying Mr. McGahn had “a couple documents locked in a safe” that he seemed to suggest he wanted access to. He also mentioned a colleague whom he blamed for “some of these earlier leaks,” and who he said “tried to push Jared out,” meaning Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and senior adviser, who has been a previous source of dispute for the legal team.

    The public White House line is that the Russia scandal is nothing, but the behavior of Trump’s lawyers is telling a different story. The pressure is getting to the White House. They can’t hide from the scandal. Dismissing the Russia story only makes it stronger, and the lawyers that are supposed to keep Trump from getting impeached can’t stop fighting with each other.

    The writing is increasingly visible on the wall. The Russia scandal is not going to end well for Trump.

  3. Clinton won’t rule out ‘questioning the legitimacy’ of 2016 election if Russia probe implicates Trump

    Former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton said on Monday that she would not rule out challenging the legitimacy of the 2016 election depending on the outcome of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russia’s interference.

    During an interview with NPR’s Fresh Air program, Clinton noted that the U.S. Constitution provides no mechanism for rolling back an election even if President Donald Trump was implicated in conspiring with Russia to defeat her.

  4. Sean Spicer: I ‘absolutely’ regret making false statements about the size of Trump’s inauguration crowd

    Former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer tells the New York Times that he “absolutely” regrets berating members of the media who accurately reported that President Donald Trump’s inauguration crowd size was smaller than the inauguration crowd size for former President Barack Obama.

    “In an interview on Monday morning, Mr. Spicer said he now regrets one of his most infamous moments as press secretary: His decision to charge into the White House briefing room in January and criticize accurate news reports that Barack Obama’s inauguration crowd was bigger than President Donald J. Trump’s,” reports the Times’ Glenn Thrush.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The SMH editorial says that both sides of politics should advocate for an end to stagnant wages on the grounds of fairness.
    Greg Jericho puts it beyond doubt that wages stagnation is a big underlying problem for growth. He concludes by saying that any attempts by the treasurer or other members of the government to suggest living standards are improving are going to be met with a very hollow laugh and much rolling of the eyes.
    Mark Kenny reports that voters situated around the Liddell power station are already looking beyond coal to cleaner power sources and tend to blame the federal government for the current state of energy policy. All but a few believe pressuring AGL to keep its ageing power station operating is the wrong way to go.
    But the federal government is keeping up pressure on AGL Energy to sell its ageing Liddell power station, despite confirmation that the only company thinking of buying the plant is no longer interested.
    EnergyAustralia managing director Catherine Tanna told a Turnbull government MP that the company would not expand its Mount Piper coal station in central NSW because of Australia’s carbon reduction targets and the energy giant’s commitment to invest in -renewables. When will the penny drop for this government? Google.
    Credit card promotions touting “zero interest” on balance transfers will go under the microscope as part of a review by the corporate regulator into the $50 billion market. The probe will assess whether banks are deliberately targeting interest-free promotions at customers who are likely to end up taking longer to pay off their debts. Surely not from the banks, our paragons of virtue! I can see some parallels with pokie owners taking advantage of problem gamblers.
    Bill Shorten says Turnbull government must take responsibility and invest more in frontline mental health services struggling with surging demand as a result of the same-sex marriage postal survey. It’s exactly as it was predicted.
    Peter FitzSimons warns us of the battalion of straw men headed our way with the cashed-up SSM NO campaign.
    Claims of stolen same-sex marriage ballots, weather-damaged envelopes and other anomalies have prompted a stern warning from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and calls for the entire process to be scrapped. What a shambles!

  6. How to Read Bob Mueller’s Hand

    As a starting point, it’s important to keep in mind what prosecutors do: They investigate discrete crimes. Although the media often throw around phrases like “Russian collusion,” that term has no legal meaning whatsoever. Mueller won’t charge one grand conspiracy involving everyone he’s looking at. If he brings charges, expect to see individuals charged separately unless they committed a crime together.

    Regardless of what charges are ultimately brought, you can expect them to be carefully considered and limited to what Mueller can readily prove. Proving criminal charges beyond a reasonable doubt to a jury is a weighty burden, and a veteran prosecutor like Mueller will not bring charges unless he is confident he can prove them.

  7. Section 2 . . .

    Paul Bongiorno describes the nest month as the calm before the storm for Turnbull.
    Jane Caro has had enough of the bullshit being speciously peddled by the NO campaign. She makes a lot of good points about religious bodies being able to continue with significant discrimination.–even-the-freedom-to-discriminate-20170902-gy9jtd.html
    Jennifer Hewett wants common sense to be given a chance in the survey. Google.
    David Crowe says that a key business leader who advised John Howard for more than a decade, Jeff Cousins, has rebuked the former prime minister over same-sex marriage, warning of a “misleading” campaign to confuse the issue with ¬religious freedom. Google.
    I thought it was a good Q&A last night. Sukkar didn’t have any friends.
    How do people like this think they can get away with it?
    Elizabeth Knight looks at the state of play with Network Ten.
    Trucks will face stiff fines for using Pennant Hills Road in northern Sydney instead of the NorthConnex toll-road tunnel under construction between the M1 and M2 motorways but the state government is yet to reveal exactly what the penalties will be. Nice!
    The literacy tests proposed for Year 1 students are not going down well with teachers.
    David Wroe reports on Christopher Pyne saying that the US is serious about military-style action in North Korea.

  8. Section 3 . . .

    Peter Hartcher says that Australia shouldn’t count on China fro growth and profits.
    Richard Wolffe writes that with respect to Trump’s presidency there is no master plan: there are just Twitter-happy thumbs, cable news all day and a long list of personal grievances that require immediate attention.
    Jenna Price goes to Hillary Clinton’s new book to explain the rough ride women leaders get.
    Michael Koziol tells us about the unlikely demographic, gay Muslims, has come out in favour of a YES vote.
    MPs have called for Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson to be fired after he threw himself back into the Brexit debate with a newspaper article that was seen as undercutting Prime Minister Theresa May days before she is set to refresh her own strategy for the split. More trouble for Tories!
    John Falzon writes that with discriminatory and demonising policy measures the government is again taking from those who have little and giving to those who have much.
    A company owned by the SA Liberal party’s largest donor, Sally Zou, is currently under investigation by the New South Wales mining regulator. Google.
    In the spotlight for all the wrong reasons after Four Corners last night, things get worse for Tom Tate as The Independent Australia releases the first part in a comprehensive new investigation into the “unorthodox” activities of the Gold Coast Mayor.,10733

  9. Section 4 . . .

    A lawyer specialising in strata law explains how short term rental is making Sydney’s housing problem even worse. The laws need to catch up with the modern reality he says.
    This political researcher deduces that there are three parties in the US – Republicans, Democrats and Trump.
    The Andrews government’s proposed toughening of donation laws is great news. But it is, as yet, so scant on detail that a comprehensive assessment will have to wait.
    Unprecedented changes are hitting the dairy industry in southern Australia, with a “supply chain revolution” underway that had snapped the traditional loyalty farmers had to processors. Dairy farmers have had enough of the predatory treatment of them by big processors.
    The Turnbull Government keeps finding fresh ways to rort Australia’s institutions to privilege its MPs and rich backers. Alan Austin continues the corruption count, which has now reached 90 instances — with no end in sight.,10731
    Two of Australia’s biggest media companies, Fairfax Media and Seven West Media, have responded to the relaxed media laws in lightning-quick fashion, reportedly entering merger talks within hours of the new rules passing the Senate.
    Stephen Koukoulas gives us an update on government debt.
    Almost 100 staff at the Australian Bureau of Statistics have been taken off existing projects to work on the same-sex marriage postal survey. The squeeze play!

  10. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    In the skies with Cathy Wilcox.

    Ron Tandberg is a great cartoonist.

    Mark David does it again!

    Paul Zanetti and the mad uncle at a wedding.

    Matt Golding and the first signs of spring.

    David Rowe and Myanmar.

    Mark Knight and the tiny supporter base of GWS.
    Pat Clement reminds us of the tactics used by Howard and Abbott.

  11. phRD

    Donald Trump’s first words as president to the UN were to brag that he owns a building across the street and that it was a successful project.

    Just like Mal with his harbour side mansion and hobby farm estate in the Hunter Valley.

  12. It’s no good AusPost jumping up and down and threatening dire consequences, they are powerless. On News Breakfast this morning there were tales of envelopes being dumped in bulk.

    Asked if reports of stolen ballots and other anomalies could undermine the credibility of the result, Dr Economou said: “The credibility was undermined from the start.

    “From the moment the Parliament refused to accept it as a plebiscite and the process was going to be run by the ABS rather than the electoral commission.

    “The critique of postal voting has always been that these problems could always arise.”

    An Australia Post spokeswoman said: “Our posties are delivering all survey items securely and as addressed, as they do with all mail items.

    “If anyone suspects mail tampering, or theft has taken place, we recommend they contact local police immediately.”

    PS I’ve received mine, but I have a private mail box.

  13. This is interesting from the PaulB article in NewDaily

    “Interestingly Mr Joyce wanted to quit Parliament, renounce his New Zealand citizenship and cause a by-election when his situation was revealed. Mr Turnbull talked him out of it. The Prime Minister was keener to gamble on the High Court rather than the voters.

    Internally, Mr Turnbull is copping criticism for his preferred course.”.

    I also thought it was interesting that Xenophon said the primary reason for the delay in media law changes was the government haggling over who would be eligible for the support money. In addition to the Guardian, they were determined for other outlets like the NewDaily not to receive any money.

  14. Morning all

    Not liking they Essential poll this week. Apart from its 2 point turnaround to the fibs, The downward support for Marriage equality is disconcerting

  15. frednk

    From the previous thread.

    Shellbell and I swapped a couple of comments each on the weekends Rugby a got ‘accused’ by C@ of turning the blog into a rugby one.

    Our rugby mentions were totally overwhelmed meanwhile by Python affectionados coming out of the woodwork at one mention of it!

  16. Lizzie

    Turnbull should be utterly ashamed that 122 million dollars is going to be wasted for a Mickey Mouse survey. He should actually do everyone a favour and resign in disgrace

  17. lizzie – I reckon the ‘No’/’don’t bother to vote’ people will be happy for plenty of publicity about difficulties of conducting the postal survey.

    Turnbull’s managed to add another 6 month delay.

  18. CTar1


    From the previous thread.

    Shellbell and I swapped a couple of comments each on the weekends Rugby a got ‘accused’ by C@ of turning the blog into a rugby one.

    Our rugby mentions were totally overwhelmed meanwhile by Python affectionados coming out of the woodwork at one mention of it!

    Bring back the energy wars!

  19. The SmearStralian has dragged out well known meteorligist Maurice Newman to comment on falsification of temprature records at BoM, and as counter in the spirit of fairness and balance, have an opinion piece from leading electricity generation engineer Ron Boswell on why renewables are a threat to the Australian way of life.

  20. CTar1

    I am one of the ‘older generation’ who will in no way be affected by the marriage legislation.
    I gave up on traditional marriage years ago; I have no gay relatives or friends.

    I am voting YES because I am disgusted at the bullying and shaming by the so-called religious, who don’t have an ounce of charity in their souls. I am disgusted by the devious manipulation by Abbott, the lies of the RWNJs and the ridiculous postal ‘survey’. I am voting for respect for everyone.

  21. PhoenixRed

    Naturally Clinton won’t rule out questioning legitimacy of election. She has an inkling of what is to come out of this whole imbroglio.

  22. Lizzie

    Turnbull should be utterly ashamed that 122 million dollars is going to be wasted for a Mickey Mouse survey. He should actually do everyone a favour and resign in disgrace

    I read about the death of this guy’s death just before tackling the Dawn Patrol. Quite a “compare and contrast” in leadership such as it is by Truffles and co.

    Stanislav Petrov dead: The Soviet officer who ‘saved the world’ by averting nuclear war dies aged 77

    At the height of the cold war, one man did his bit to save the world, and no one knew

    Col Petrov was the only officer on duty when the computers told him that missiles had been launched from the US towards Russia

    ……..crisis came at a time of heightened tensions between the US and USSR, three weeks after the Soviet military shot down Korean Air Lines flight 007, killing all 269 on board.

  23. sprocket_

    Don’t forget Jennifer Marohasy from that article. Another bastion of science, a former head of the Institute of Public Affairs Environment Unit no less.

  24. Quentin Dempster

    With each terrorist-related event, our nation’s leaders exhort us to continue to go about our daily lives on the streets and in the great venues of Australia. To do otherwise would be to let the terrorists win.

    Good point.

    But as we do go about as normal, the gutless wonders in Canberra have decided to build a great big fence to protect themselves inside their privileged cocoon. Correspondent emeritus Michelle Grattan has described it as “appalling”.

    First it was security guards with loaded automatic weapons clearly visible at the public entrance. That is confronting enough in quiet little Canberra.

    Now trained snipers are reportedly ready to be deployed on a red alert from Parliament House security controllers with threat level protocols at hand to help them make instantaneous risk assessments. They have the benefit of closed circuit monitoring from cameras at every access point inside and outside the vast building.

    The upgrade was said to be approved last December around the time two protesters walked up the lawns to the roof to roll out a banner, attempting to shame the occupants of the building about the psychologically traumatised asylum seekers on Manus Island and Nauru.

    How poignant is that protest now?

    The winning architect’s firm, Mitchell, Giurgola and Thorp, has signed off on the fence which we are also told will be visually unobtrusive. (!!!)

  25. lizzie

    I am voting for respect for everyone.

    I give you a 10 on that.

    I’ve got no ‘iron in the fire’ on it either but my ‘Yes’ should be with the ABS by now.

  26. How’s your back getting on BK?

    Kouk’s Govt debt update interested me.

    Debt & deficit disaster monthly increases $ billion:
    ………………………………………………………Net …………………………… Gross

    Coalition (2013 – 2017)……………………. 3.36 ……………………………. 5.23
    Labor (2007 – 2013 incl GFC) ………….. 2.86 ……………………………. 3.01

  27. Good Morning

    So the No campaign has kicked some more own goals since last I commented here. Mr Corbett did himself and his business no favours coming perilously close to sounding like a racist as well as a homophobe.

    A train wreck of an interview that started with the classic some of my best friends are gay and went downhill from there.

    QandA was excellent. Both the climate deniers and the no vote were exposed for the fact free zones they are. Alexander laid it out and Sukkar only had I think you are wrong.

    Meanwhile this morning we wake to infighting amongst the no campaign. Morrison takes the sensible approach that religion “freedom” can be address after the vote and is not part of the debate and only becomes necessary if Yes wins. Senator Abetz and Abbott are attacking him of this stance using the phrase a blank cheque.

    On the energy wars this morning News 24 has had a story about Western Power’s standalone system for remote communities. This goes to showing that the poles and wires had blackouts and was expensive costing taxpayers millions. Since the installation of the Solar system not one blackout during the trial and the people using the system are not going back.

  28. sprocket_ @ #22 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 7:27 am

    The SmearStralian has dragged out well known meteorligist Maurice Newman to comment on falsification of temprature records at BoM, and as counter in the spirit of fairness and balance, have an opinion piece from leading electricity generation engineer Ron Boswell on why renewables are a threat to the Australian way of life.

    Why? Just WHY?

  29. Mike Carlton describes Sukkar as ‘pinguid’, among other things. I’ve leaned a new word today. It means fatty , oily , or greasy; unctuous.

    A good description of several of the Lib MPs: Frydenberg, Ciobo, Sukkar. They look as if they have always dined on the fat of the land.

  30. lizzie

    I looked up “pinguid” and saw in a couple of definitions a quote used as an example of its use. The quote makes pinguid seem even more appropriate. “a pinguid bullfrog”.

  31. Eric Holthaus‏Verified account

    Hurricane #Maria is now a catastrophic Cat 4. Will make landfall in Dominica in a few hours—there are no words left to describe this season.

  32. The 2 points change is concerning, it may be people are happy the government is ‘doing something ‘ even if they don’t know precisely what.
    If the government gets a boost it might just sit at 52-48 for a while.

    Of course it could be towards 53-47 rounded down.

  33. gt

    Delta knocks Liddell power plant purchase on the head

    Maybe Turnbull will do what he did last election and cough the money up himself?


  34. The Liberal Party would face an electoral wipe-out in WA if the State election result was repeated at the next Federal poll, with analysis showing Labor would pick up six more seats and turn a handful of other blue-ribbon electorates marginal.

    According to figures compiled by the ABC’s election analyst Antony Green, three Government ministers would lose their seats if West Australians repeated their State vote at a Federal level.

    Social Services Minister Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce would become notionally Labor on 10.4 per cent and Justice Minister Michael Keenan’s seat of Stirling would switch to Labor on a 5.5 per cent margin.

  35. I loved this example sentence for pinguid.

    It really sums up that unclean feeling you get from any association with the Right.

    His car was splattered with some sort of pinguid substance, and washing it only seemed to spread the mess.

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