BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

Two new poll results this week, including the first Ipsos poll in four months, have failed to budge the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Two new polls this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have wrought next to no change in voting intention, outside of an improvement for the Greens. However, their state breakdowns have caused Labor to make a net gain of two, having picked up two in Queensland and Victoria, while dropping one in New South Wales. Both pollsters produced leadership ratings this week, but I would caution against reading anything into the changes in the leadership ratings trends, as I don’t make any effort to correct for Ipsos’s consistent peculiarity in producing unusually strong approval ratings for both leaders. In other words, both leaders are up this week not because their ratings have improved – indeed, the opposite happened, particularly for Bill Shorten – but simply because there was an Ipsos result. This is not an issue with the preferred prime minister trend, on which Malcolm Turnbull increased his lead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,282 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. Oh yeah and I was informed by Doug Cameron tonight, whose first job when he came to Australia was to work for 7 years as a Maintenance Engineer at the Liddell coal-fired power station!… That it is a crock for 2 main reasons:
    1. It was the last of an old type design when it was built, and
    2. The Coal that it’s boilers burn produces a highly acidic ash as a by-product which corrodes the pipes and puts the boilers out of action frequently.

    And that is what Malcolm Turnbull insanely wants to prop up.

  2. Going off-grid could be the way forward for communities on the fringes of WA’s power network after a trial of solar units exceeded the expectations of those involved.

    Fed up with frequent outages and voltage spikes, six farming households in Ravensthorpe, 500 kilometres south of Perth, chose to take a leap of faith and try living off the sun and lithium batteries.

    “It has been just fantastic, it’s far exceeded our expectations, and it’s very good, clean power,” Ravensthorpe resident Ros Giles said.

  3. ‘fess

    it’s very good, clean power

    ‘Clean power’ to the participants in this trial meant steady power i.e. no spikes not clean as in environment friendly.

  4. Cleaner as in closer to a sinusoid voltage source. Power electronics are notorious for injecting harmonics. These harmonics are considered “noise” and the signal they produce “dirty,” in contrast to a clean signal. They cause judder and extra heating in electromechanical devices – i.e induction motors – which is bad for your fridge and AC and a really big problem for heavy machinery and low voltage power reticulation systems.

  5. from the story…

    “Cleaner meaning frequency and voltage consistencies … and that means less damage to things … like electric fence units with voltage spikes and fluctuations.

    “We haven’t come across anything we can’t do that we could before as far as welding and using large amounts of power or starting electric motors, not a problem.”

    = “the point”

  6. boomy1,

    It makes economic sense when the network option is so expensive and unreliable, not so much in the burbs or even mid-sized regional towns.

    The real story, to me, there is the regulatory failure (again) that doesn’t let network companies take customers off the grid. There is no grid decommissioning pathway through existing regulations, because network companies are not allowed to own generating assets. WP have manage to pull this off by calling it a trial to get around the regulators’ dead hand and subsiding the generating assets behind the meter, under customer ownership. It get’s better – the network companies know all about this, but can’t make a regulatory rule change request themselves, because that’s another rule.

    The same stupid issue is arising all over Qld and western NSW too.

  7. LU

    The real story, to me, there is the regulatory failure (again) that doesn’t let network companies take customers off the grid. Their is no grid decommissioning pathway through existing regulations, because network companies are not allowed to own generating assets.

    Surely that will be changed. Well, you’d think it would!

  8. CTar1,

    AGL, Origin and EA want into the battery market in a big way… they are not network entities.

    IMHO there needs to be a new contestability test put on the application of the ring-fencing guideline when a credible investment option includes grid decommissioning. Horizon operate under this model.

    Then some AEMC muppet will probably suggest the local generation asset provision process be opened up to an auction. Sure, the networks will love having someone else’s kit to manage, and different kit on each islanded feeder.

  9. LU

    Most of our energy problems seem to boil down to out of date regulation and governments of both ilk that can’t get their act together and set the right policy directions in place.

    To put it mildly it’s a f’ken mess of our own making.

  10. That’s pretty much it, CTar1.

    On the other hand, we had a decade an a half of little or no electricity price growth, so it worked for a while. The catch now is that the incumbents, having worked out how to extract rents, are using the regulatory process to hold on to them.


  11. Trump on at the UN going on about equal sharing of the cost and the military burden of enforcing UN resolutions.

    The US tune has changed a ‘bit’ since the Bretton Woods Conference where they coughed up the money and insisted that the proposed UN, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund all be headquartered in the US and effectively controlled by the US.

    More Trump making US ‘Allies’ uncertain about what the US is committed to …

  12. [CTar1
    Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh numbered at around 400,000 now.

    Unfortunately this is just another shot in a long standing game of Rohingya tennis.

    The Bangladeshis will by planning their next shot aimed at returning them back to Myanmar. 🙁

  13. There are now three crowdfunding campaigns for ‘Yes’ skywriting (or sky banner, because apparently the only skywriting company in Sydney is operated by some ACL wackos, so now they’re going to hire a helicopter to tow a giant rainbow flag around). They’ve raised $6000 between them in under 2 days.

    ‘Yes’ wins on dollars, and number of backers. Loses on coordination, though. Do we really need three separate campaigns?

  14. Lemma: Now all the people who are actually trained as proper computer scientists will be so horrified at my advice they will give you highly useful information as to how to proceed, if you are not a rank amateur like me. Of course, the Lemma may be disproved by subsequent events.

    I got one of those; I would describe what your suggesting a classic unix solution; and there is nothing wrong with unix. You can use pipes to spiv it up a bit.

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