BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

Two new poll results this week, including the first Ipsos poll in four months, have failed to budge the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Two new polls this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have wrought next to no change in voting intention, outside of an improvement for the Greens. However, their state breakdowns have caused Labor to make a net gain of two, having picked up two in Queensland and Victoria, while dropping one in New South Wales. Both pollsters produced leadership ratings this week, but I would caution against reading anything into the changes in the leadership ratings trends, as I don’t make any effort to correct for Ipsos’s consistent peculiarity in producing unusually strong approval ratings for both leaders. In other words, both leaders are up this week not because their ratings have improved – indeed, the opposite happened, particularly for Bill Shorten – but simply because there was an Ipsos result. This is not an issue with the preferred prime minister trend, on which Malcolm Turnbull increased his lead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,282 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. Some magnificent images from the Cassini spacecraft, which ends its voyage to Saturn and its rings today, with a fiery descent to the planet. It will immolate itself after a twenty years’ voyage and a flawless mission of photography, since it has run out of fuel, and needs to be destroyed to avoid contamination of some of Saturn’s planets which may contain life.

    At the end of the page is a link to a very good four minute video.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/14/science/cassini-saturn-images.html?emc=edit_nn_20170915&nl=morning-briefing&nlid=82226480&te=1

  2. Trump Enrages Another US Ally As British PM Rebukes President For Speculative Terrorism Tweet

    British Prime Minister Theresa May rebuked Trump for engaging in Twitter speculation after a subway attack injured 23 people in London.

    One of America’s oldest and truest allies would appreciate it if Donald Trump would keep his opinions to himself.

    With each half-baked tweet that comes out of his phone, Donald Trump chips away at the credibility of the presidency as an institution. A president doesn’t take to Twitter to engage in a stream of thought speculation after a terrorist attack. This is not how a US president is supposed to behave.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/15/trump-enrages-ally-british-pm-rebukes-president-speculative-terrorism-tweet.html

  3. The Case For Impeachment Just Got A Lot Stronger As New Documents Prove Trump Crimes

    The first concrete proof of a Trump impeachable offense has been found as documents show a government agency using taxpayer money to pay Trump to stay at one of his properties.

    There is an almost ready-made case for Trump impeachment being laid out, and if Democrats take back Congress, there are going to be investigations into Trump’s conflicts of interest on numerous fronts. The impeachment party is just getting started.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/15/case-impeachment-lot-stronger-documents-prove-trump-crimes.html

  4. Russia Scandal Explodes: Bannon, Kushner and Flynn Had a Secret Meeting with Jordan’s King

    Steve Bannon, Jared Kushner, Mike Flynn and Jordan’s King Abdullah II had a secret meeting on January 5th, 2017, during the time Flynn was trying to broker his U.S./Russia nuclear deal. Flynn claimed he stopped pushing the deal in December.

    The secret meeting took place in the days leading up to Trump’s inauguration. “The meeting — details of which have never been reported — is the latest in a series of secret, high-stakes contacts between Trump advisers and foreign governments that have raised concerns about how, in particular, Flynn and senior adviser Jared Kushner handled their personal business interests as they entered key positions of power. And the nuclear project raised additional security concerns about expanding nuclear technology in a tinderbox region of the world. One expert compared it to providing “a nuclear weapons starter kit.”

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/15/boom-bannon-kushner-flynn-secret-meeting-jordans-king.html

  5. Jared Kushner’s data operation increasingly suspected of aiding 2016 Russian propaganda attack

    The news regarding Russia’s use of social media platforms to push propaganda and inject false narratives in the U.S. conversation around the 2016 election is now a documented fact but it has been an open question as to how Russia’s so-called “troll farms” knew how to target their ad buys.

    According to a Friday report in Vanity Fair by Chris Smith, investigators increasingly suspect that President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner helped guide Russian operatives to their targets.

    Rachel Maddow raised the possibility last week that Kushner and data analytics firm Cambridge Analytica may have been providing Russian intelligence operatives with up-to-the-instant polling data and micro-targeting data for ad buys.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/jared-kushners-data-operation-increasingly-suspected-of-aiding-2016-russian-propaganda-attack/

  6. Coal pollutes even when sitting in storage.

    Burning coal generates air pollutants that cause thousands of premature deaths and hospitalizations every year. Coal mining, especially mountaintop mining, has been linked to increased exposure to toxic pollutants, increased morbidity and mortality, and adverse impacts on mental health for people living nearby.

    In a recent study, Nicholas Muller and I uncovered a source of air pollution from coal that has not received much policy scrutiny: the storage and handling of coal piles. We found that wind blowing over uncovered coal piles at U.S. power plants plus gaseous emissions from the piles significantly increased concentrations of airborne fine particulates within 25 miles of these plants. Our findings suggest that this dimension of coal use should be regulated as well.

    https://theconversation.com/even-when-its-sitting-in-storage-coal-threatens-human-health-80865?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    In looking at the events of last week Katharine Murphy says that posturing and blathering has become far more important than substance, and reflects the collective hole Australian politics finds itself in.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/15/sound-and-fury-signifies-a-lot-thats-what-the-week-in-auspol-tells-us
    Karen Middleton tries to make sense of Turnbull’s two years as PM.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/09/16/making-sense-the-pms-first-two-years/15054840005224
    Paula Matthewson on the crashing disappointment that is Malcolm Turnbull.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/09/15/malcolm-turnbull-two-years-leadership-disappointment/
    Theresa May has issued a stinging response to US President Donald Trump after he tweeted that the terrorist who attacked a London train was “in the sights of Scotland Yard”. Google. (And she has just raised the terror threat level to “critical”).
    /finance/work/leaders/trump-says-authorities-need-to-be-nasty-to-loser-terrorists/news-story/5f804e99deaf76248fdfc4b84b8aa390
    Michael Pascoe on the fine line between being wealthy and being over-indebted.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/overindebted-or-wealthy-its-all-in-the-detail-20170915-gyi5qs.html
    In a contribution well worth absorbing Crispin Hull unemotionally examines the issues surrounding SSM and why everyone should vote YES.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/samesex-marriage-survey-is-our-discriminatory-marriage-law-unconstitutional-20170915-gyi854.html
    Compare Hull’s rational approach with this contribution in favour of a NO vote from the federal Liberal vice-president.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/samesex-marriage-debate-im-no-homophobe-but-i-fear-for-vulnerable-children-20170915-gyi17x.html
    Now Abbott’s daughter has come out in favour of SSM!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/yes-please-tony-abbotts-daughter-frances-supports-marriage-equality-20170915-gyi3kg.html
    Peter Hartcher says it’s the YES campaign’s survey to lose.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/marriage-vote-is-the-yes-campaigns-to-lose-20170915-gyi8a3.html
    Michelle Grattan says that in the likely event of a YES outcome to the survey Turnbull will have his work cut out with the next steps.
    https://theconversation.com/turnbull-would-need-to-prevent-protections-fight-delaying-legislation-after-a-yes-vote-84130

  10. Section 2 . . .

    Jacqui Maley contrasts the effects of footballers and gay couples on family values. A good read.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/footballers-are-a-worse-threat-to-family-values-than-any-gay-couple-20170914-gyhin9.html
    Paul Bongiorno begins this contribution with ” In a sure sign the Turnbull government is thrashing about in its death throes, this week it resembled the Labor Party of Ben Chifley in 1949 more than anything else.” And even better, he concludes with ” The tragedy for Australia is that, if Labor wins the next election, Turnbull’s successor as Liberal leader will be even less inclined to leave the parallel coal universe than he is. It could even be Tony Abbott. He is talking to fellow MPs in terms of “when he becomes leader again”.”
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2017/09/16/turnbull-turns-chifley-energy/15054840005212
    The nation’s most powerful doctors’ group is ramping up its campaign for same-sex marriage despite an internal conservative backlash, with seven former Australian Medical Association bosses joining the cause and urging a “yes” vote on health grounds.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/doctors-group-ramps-up-samesex-marriage-campaign-despite-conservative-backlash-20170914-gyhtz9.html
    Looking for a laugh? Then read Gerard Henderson’s effort. Google.
    /news/inquirer/turnbull-moves-toward-abbott-policies-in-quest-for-success/news-story/c67dd4c579ab57b21b91ada1a8211ec1
    Mike Seccombe despairs that the federal government is ignoring the realities of climate change – mirroring trends towards inaction in American politics.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/environment/2017/09/16/climate-action-stalling-here-and-america/15054840005223
    David Speers says that Turnbull needs to come up with a decent energy policy tout de suite. Google.
    /news/opinion/malcolm-turnbull-needs-to-get-an-energy-policy-sorted/news-story/42dcf73acae3d1982f9e7af87de57b9c
    Anna Patty writes about the concerns that the new low skilled labour visa scheme will be open to abuse.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/fears-new-lowskilled-visa-will-be-open-to-abuse-20170912-gyfw9h.html
    Richard Ackland goes to town on the SSM issue starting with ” Little Winston Howard was out of the blocks with a piece in The Catholic Boys Daily, “kickstarting” the “No” case. The diminutive koala is concerned that churches, free speech and children will be threatened if the marriage equality postal survey results in a “Yes” outcome. The strange and anxious fears seem to be that if people acquire rights they didn’t previously have, then the pre-existing rights of others will be taken away.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2017/09/16/gadfly-johns-no-game-tones/15054840005205
    Terminally ill Victorians look set to be given the right to die when they choose, with a growing number of MPs saying they will vote for “voluntary assisted dying” legislation. Yes!
    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/righttodie-laws-more-mps-prepared-to-face-the-darkness-and-vote-yes-20170914-gyhhl5.html

  11. http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/righttodie-laws-more-mps-prepared-to-face-the-darkness-and-vote-yes-20170914-gyhhl5.html
    Section 3 . . .

    The Turnbull government wants “dramatic reductions” in private health insurance price rises over the next three years, with a major new reform package set to make deep cuts to the medical device sector and entice more young people into cover. They could also get rid of the coverage for unproven crap “treatments”!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greg-hunt-flags-dramatic-reductions-in-private-health-insurance-prices-20170914-gyhu8j.html
    Elizabeth Knight calls out Turnbull for his desperate scapegoating of AGL.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/agl-turns-into-australias-most-monstered-company-as-turnbull-needs-scapegoats-20170915-gyi7wd.html
    Local government in NSW does attract some “colourful” characters!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/former-gold-trader-linked-to-multimilliondollar-tax-scandal-wins-spot-on-ryde-council-20170915-gyi8sz.html
    Ross Gittins tells us that the principle growth in employment is in services.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/happy-to-be-of-service-to-australias-jobs-growth-20170915-gyi560.html
    State authorities have urgently intervened in the operations of a retirement village run by a convicted criminal after the facility’s underpaid staff downed tools leaving sick and bedridden residents to fend for themselves. Charming!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/police-state-government-intervene-at-berkeley-village-after-staff-walk-20170915-gyilnf.html
    You’d have to agree with Jack Waterford as he declares that celebrity news is not real journalism.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/rebel-wilson-defamation-celebrity-news-is-not-real-journalism-20170915-gyi23n.html
    Phil Coorey on the Coalition’s changed tactics. Google.
    /news/the-coalitions-peoplefirst-approach-throws-political-orthodoxy-out-the-window-20170914-gyhy4l
    This former Treasury official tells us that bracket creep is more of a worry to low wage earners than to the high earners.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/minimumwage-earners-not-wealthy-face-brunt-of-bracket-creep-20170915-gyidax.html
    Jenna Price worries about the level of insecure and under employment in Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/suffer-the-older-children-no-home-no-job-no-life-20170914-gyhtdy.html
    Adele Ferguson has a good look at what is happening in the Caltex tent after the franchisee underpayment disclosures.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/caltex-cleans-up-in-worker-compo-hoax-20170915-gyi4yz.html

  12. Section 4 . . .

    Clive Palmer’s elusive nephew Clive Mensink is being paid more than $8000 a fortnight by one of his uncle’s companies despite warrants being out for his arrest, a court has heard.
    http://www.smh.com.au/queensland/mensink-being-paid-8k-a-fortnight-lawyer-20170915-p4yvxs.html
    The Turnbull government has signalled it will press on with meeting One Nation’s demands to place restrictions on the ABC. How pathetic!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/15/coalition-signals-it-will-negotiate-with-one-nation-over-curbs-on-abc
    Parents who refuse to vaccinate their children will no longer be able to enrol children to childcare, with the state government closing the “conscientious objector” loophole in NSW’s ‘no jab no play’ rules.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/vaccine-objectors-will-no-longer-be-able-to-enrol-children-in-child-care-in-nsw-no-jab-no-play-law-ammended-20170914-gyhdhc.html
    A Victorian church that cancelled a couple’s wedding because they supported same-sex marriage was acting well within its rights, according to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and the leader of the “no” campaign. what a pissweak response!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-defends-right-of-church-to-refuse-to-marry-couples-who-support-gay-marriage-20170915-gyi0hm.html
    Outgoing Internet Australia chair Anne Hurley has grown tired of defending herself and Internet Australia against baseless attacks from people with questionable agendas. Laurie Patton, who is also stepping down, reports.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/baseless-attacks-by-nbn-co-cronies-see-resignations-at-internet-australia,10719
    Victoria’s Federal Court will decide whether a poker machine has been illegally designed to entrap users, in the first case of its kind in the country. a case to watch closely.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/law-crime/2017/09/16/poker-machines-trial/15054840005222
    Will the screaming banshee escape this?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cash-under-pressure-to-explain-hadgkiss-appointment-20170914-gyhmhe.html
    Fair Work inspectors were ordered to withhold information about new provisions for unions unless they were specifically asked by the business industry, under the leadership of former agency chief Nigel Hadgkiss, internal emails reveal. The hole gets deeper
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/email-trail-sheds-more-light-on-nigel-hadgkiss-conduct-20170915-gyiaey.html
    For good reason Myers has fallen out of favour with investors.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/myers-share-price-hit-an-alltime-low-after-analysts-downgrade-20170915-gyiep5.html
    Apparently, writing ‘WILSON: Human Rights Abusers’ in chalk on a glass window is seen by the courts as “offensive defacement” and will cost you $500.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/not-sorry-for-writing-wilson-human-rights-abusers,10720

  13. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    How UGLY is this!!! David Rowe’s latest.

    John Shakespeare and the return of the Crusading Fossil.

    More from Shakespeare – this time on the plight of low wage earners.

    Jon Kudelka also contributes with Howard’s return.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/39cd541c1140b86732357bac6883a669
    Ron Tandberg and competition in the banking industry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    I love this one from Mark Knight on Abbott’s daughter coming out in favour of a YES vote.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/f27a8ec703d4e5cd215372dfadde01f8?width=1024
    Alan Moir and Aung San Suu Kyi.

    What a cracker from Broelman!

    Paul Zanetti and the advice Turnbull is getting.

    The pace of US history.

    Matt Golding gives the government a huge serve here.

    Golding on the potential for Hairmageddon.

  15. Hard to believe that Sharri Marrkson is the Daily Tele’s political editor. On the other hand…

    Old debates churn round in enervating circles, deeply silly business persists, and one of Malcolm Turnbull’s rewards for surviving two years in the top job was a harrowing account of Tony Abbott’s wounding and scarring exit from the prime ministership “at the height of his political career” in the Daily Telegraph on Friday.

    Poor old Tony (the paper’s political editor, Sharri Markson, noted by way of exposition) didn’t like talking about his emotions, “like most men”.

    But given opportunity, Wronged Tony™ rose nimbly to the occasion.

    Of course losing the prime ministership was wounding. “Of course you carry scars,” Abbott noted, movingly. Not being prime minister still hurts, but you just have to put disappointments behind you “and make the most of every day and that’s what I’m doing”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/15/sound-and-fury-signifies-a-lot-thats-what-the-week-in-auspol-tells-us

  16. Morning all. Thanks BK. Michaela Cash is shameless over the appointment of Hadgkiss. She has an inner ugliness that really shines through. Hadgkiss was himself a lawyer; he knew the rules he was breaking. Surely Labor could convince the cross benchers to vote for action on this. Also, did Cash mislead parliament at any stage over this? It has been dragging on for four years and Cash often rants on about the ABCC. Worth checking.

  17. The Guardian needs our support.

    The government still had to do a series of deals with the Senate crossbench to get the changes through. The most disturbing was with Pauline Hanson – who thinks all public funding for public broadcasting is a “slush fund” and ABC balance would be best demonstrated by exposing the “hoax” of global warming – to establish an inquiry into whether the ABC is competing too successfully with its commercial rivals.

    When Fifield came to do the side-deal with Xenophon, the minister had a non-negotiable condition. It could not apply to Guardian Australia. He’d cited us as a reason that media concentration was no longer a problem, but now he singled us out for exclusion from a package protecting diversity. After long argument, Xenophon agreed.

    “The government’s position was that the Guardian Australia’s parent entity was foreign and therefore would not qualify. I do not believe this is relevant. What is relevant is that Australian news stories and analysis are being produced by Australian journalists,” Xenophon said.

    “The Hobson’s choice I faced was to lose the $60m package of measures I negotiated for small and regional publishers. It was made clear to me that if Guardian Australia and other so called foreign-based parent entity publications were included, the funding package would fall through.

    “I fear that there was narrow, blinkered ideology at play on the part of some Coalition backbenchers and some crossbenchers … You have to ask whether blind ideology, yet again, got in the way of sensible public policy.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/sep/15/how-the-coalitions-blind-ideology-over-media-reform-stiffed-guardian-australia?CMP=soc_568

  18. lizzie

    We found that wind blowing over uncovered coal piles at U.S. power plants plus gaseous emissions from the piles significantly increased concentrations of airborne fine particulates within 25 miles of these plants. Our findings suggest that this dimension of coal use should be regulated as well.

    Not surprised. My understanding is that the quicker it’s burnt after it’s dug up the hotter the burn.

    (It’s the sort of stuff Yabba knows about).

  19. Michaela Cash needed an anti union warrior to head the ABCC. That he broke industrial law was neither here nor there as far as she was concerned.

  21. Turnbull’s successor as Liberal leader will be even less inclined to leave the parallel coal universe than he is. It could even be Tony Abbott. He is talking to fellow MPs in terms of “when he becomes leader again”.”

    I really cannot decide which to prefer –

    – Voters of Warringah chucking abbot out of Parliament at the next election or

    – Him back as LOTO and and back to damaging the Tories .

    The Nation would be better off with him gone though.

  22. Nick Xenophon – what a total louse. All he did was provide a lot of pork for the Nats in the region. A total disgrace. I hope he does get the boot and has to face SA voters at the next election. They might not be so pleased.

  23. Socrates:

    On Cash’s inner ugliness, yesterday zoomster inferred she may well have been mentored by Sophie Mirabella.

    Which says it all really.

  29. Guytaur

    Barring some drama with the current govt ability to go a full term. We are stuck with them until 2019. Plenty of time for Turnbull and co to continue stuffing the majority over . sigh……

  30. Sharri Markson resembles Ben Fordham. Progress is based on family connections.

    There is excessive self-grooming.

    The end product is vanilla fawning over subject matter (eg Tony Abbott) as directed.

    It is like a mid-morning infomercial show.

  32. This is worth highlighting. Its got a lot of posts on my timeline.

    <Any attempt by the Turnbull government to weaponise the competition regulator to force or even threaten energy giant AGL into splitting its power generation and retail power businesses would be a serious case of overreach.

    It's far too convenient for the government to seize on comments from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission that the vertically integrated nature of power companies like AGL is responsible for the energy supply and pricing crisis.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/agl-turns-into-australias-most-monstered-company-as-turnbull-needs-scapegoats-20170915-gyi7wd.html?btis

    A clear demonstration that this government is a danger to our economy, our energy security and our future security as natural disasters ramp up due to climate change.

    I know its repeat news but its important not to let this be normalised. The LNP need to held to account on their hypocrisy. Free Market warriors they are not.

  33. Want to give a shout out Tom centrelink. It cops a lot of flack, but I have to report that they have been exemplary in assisting my sister in the past week. They have been awesome

  35. Victoria

    Good on you. The staff suffer a lot due to the government policies. I think most (bad apples in every lot) do their best for the people they serve.

    As a result of policies security guards had to be put in place to protect staff. Health and safety are a concern for the staff due to the righteous anger at policies and funding failures over issues such as the robodebt.

  37. Zoomster

    So true. When my sister initially made contact with them, and they were advised of her changed circumstances, they prioritised her claim and assisted her in a very compassionate way. she was very impressed.

  39. I sometimes wonder if the real financial ‘wizard’ in the Turnbull family is Lucy. We know that she tries to calm his angry outbursts (her own admission) but obviously cannot be present in all his cabinet discussions.

  41. Victoria

    It amazes me that staff still work there with what they have to put up with. Its no wonder the government wants people to use websites. Great at taking out the human equation.

    There are many on Centrelink payments who cannot deal with the internet at all.
    The phone and offices are a nightmare for these people.

    Then of course those that do use the website run into serious problems.
    The government IT services are a joke on user friendliness.

    This causes huge pressure on the people working there.

    I am all for online services reducing costs and all that. However no one should be left behind because of the incompetence of government.

  44. Fess

    Like the Centrelink staff I think its the dedication of the staff in wanting to help people. They are hanging on to keep institutional memory.

    Hopefully we will see a return in the future to the culture under Whitlam and Fraser.

  45. Many Centrelink staff I am sure continue to work there because they dread the prospect of being on the other side of the desk. And I don’t blame them.

  50. victoria @ #43 Saturday, September 16th, 2017 – 9:19 am

    Guytaur

    Agreed. And Centrelink online services are very patchy at best.

    All government IT services are hopeless. I mean, it’s not even that hard to build dynamically scale-able infrastructure to handle loads at any given time. And it’s not even that expensive.

    Facebook spent $860 million, or about $1 per active monthly user, to deliver and distribute its products last year. The bulk of that money was related to data center equipment, staff, and operating costs.

    Meanwhile the government forks out $10 Billion. That’s over $400 over the whole population yearly, lets say 5% of that population would be active on a government website each month (may well be a lot less in reality) ~ $8000/active monthly user?

    Looks like one of the biggest rorts of all time

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