BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

Two new poll results this week, including the first Ipsos poll in four months, have failed to budge the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Two new polls this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have wrought next to no change in voting intention, outside of an improvement for the Greens. However, their state breakdowns have caused Labor to make a net gain of two, having picked up two in Queensland and Victoria, while dropping one in New South Wales. Both pollsters produced leadership ratings this week, but I would caution against reading anything into the changes in the leadership ratings trends, as I don’t make any effort to correct for Ipsos’s consistent peculiarity in producing unusually strong approval ratings for both leaders. In other words, both leaders are up this week not because their ratings have improved – indeed, the opposite happened, particularly for Bill Shorten – but simply because there was an Ipsos result. This is not an issue with the preferred prime minister trend, on which Malcolm Turnbull increased his lead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,282 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. Ides:

    Falling in love? How juvenile.

    How about arguing against their views on their merits. I’m interested in the conservative viewpoint, and I say that meaning the actual conservative viewpoint, not the reactionary viewpoint.

    You mentioned you are under 30 years. My advice to you is to not shut yourself off to intelligent views that contradict your own. I do not resile from that.

  2. Brexit shambles

    “The civil servant in charge of the Department for Exiting the European Union is to move to a new role in 10 Downing Street after just over a year in the job, throwing Theresa May’s Brexit plans into chaos.

    Oliver Robbins is to take up a new “co-ordinating” role in Downing Street. Over the summer it was reported that he had had a series of disagreements with Brexit Secretary David Davis.”

  3. C@t:

    Yeesh bemused isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed if he’s still trying to ‘talk’ to me when he must know by now that I no longer see his comments.

    Says more about him and his diminished intellectual capacities than it does about me. 🙂

    Total loser.

  4. Who is that energy policy jerkass on Q&A? “Let’s do hydraulic fracking because markets like it”. And not even bother to mention all the other things that are horridly wrong with fracking.

  5. Stephens is a classic Republican.

    *A GW Bush supporter;

    * ‘Sceptical’ on climate change (‘sceptical’ on climate change = prepared to ignore it);

    * A supporter of Israel; etc.

    And no doubt full on American exceptionalism and probably believes in trickle down …

    A Yank RW’er.

  6. AR
    That link you gave me earlier has opened up a whole new world to me.
    Not surprisingly, there seems to be at least one app that will assist in changing bands.
    Requires rooting the ‘phone’ first though and doesn’t support all processors (yet).

  7. sprocket – Robbins was Principle Private Secretary to Blair and Brown.

    I recall he fell out with Brown in a big way. And Brown not the only one he ended up at logger heads with. He had a history of doing just that.

  8. C@t:

    Yep totally sad. AR had to introduce the block feature of his plugins because commenters demanded it as a result of bemused and his behaviour.

    Total whackjob.

  9. * ‘Sceptical’ on climate change (‘sceptical’ on climate change = prepared to ignore it);

    No that isn’t quite true. On Real Time the other day he talked about AGW in terms of the sensible position is to take the risk seriously (he alluded to that on Qanda tonight too), and mitigate.

  10. Woohoo, just got home and my Postal Survey Thingy in the mail box. Yee ha.

    Brett Stephens had a falling out with the that foreigner Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal, hence his recent move to the NYT.

    I think before that he was editor of the Jerusalem Post.

    He’s a definite RWer, just not the complete nutjob variety.

    Night all.

  11. Sukkar is a slimy individual. Knowingly lies about what caused the bad power outages in South Australia, long after such claims have been discredited.

    If I can be spared from campaigning in my electorate I will be off to help Sukkar’s opponent.
    What a creep.

  12. Yeah Sukkar should stay off TV if he wants to help his side.

    Got my vote Friday and posted today. Decided not to comment. Just a very clear tick on the YES.

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