Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Leads for Labor and same-sex marriage have both narrowed in this week’s Essential Research poll.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has an unusual two-point movement in favour of the Coalition in its fortnight rolling average, cutting Labor’s lead from 54-46 to 52-48. No word yet on the primary vote. The other big finding from the poll is that support for same-sex marriage was recorded at 55%, down four points on a fortnight ago, with opposition up three to 34%. Once again though, supporters report higher likelihood to vote, with yes leading 59% to 37% among those who said they had voted already. Other questions find belief in climate change caused by human activity up four points since February to 60%, with only 24% favouring the alternative option of “we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the Earth’s climate”, down one. Other questions rate to cost of living concerns (topped by utilities and housing) and wage increase (52% said they had not received one in the past year).

UPDATE: Full results here. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 38%, Labor is down one to 37%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is down one to 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

533 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [shiftaling
    Of course it is illegal to fire someone because of their view on this survey …    ]

    I’m not sure fired is the correct word.

    The business organises entertainment for children’s parties.

    “The woman was an independent contractor, and not a direct employee of Ms Sims’ business.”

    So basically the business is acting as an agent for the entertainers.

    So the action just seems to be the same as any agent deciding to no longer represent a client.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-19/same-sex-marriage-survey-canberra-business-ditches-contractor/8958176

  2. Dan Gulberry @ #393 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 7:28 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #337 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 4:23 pm

    An interesting connection of the hypocrisy of the Yessers!

    Bit disingenuous there GG. First off it’s from Newscorp. Admittedly it also appears on Yahoo7 as well, although they’re as reliable a source as Newscorp is.

    Anyway, every company I’ve been employed by over the last 30 years has had a zero tolerance attitude to racism, sexism and homophobia. Say anything racist, sexist or homophobic and you’re up for instant dismissal. No warnings, no second chance, just clean out your desk and prepare to be escorted off the premises. At the time of your initial employment you’re required to sign a contract that stipulates that you accept those terms and conditions. All it takes is one complaint from a foreign, female or gay staff member and your on the dole queue.

    I have no sympathy for anyone who gets the sack because they breached that legally binding contract.

    Now, unless we get to hear the full story from both the fellow employee, and employer we don’t know the full truth. All Newscorp and Yahoo7 are doing is presenting the sacked employees side of the story, which also (surprise, surprise) also fits into their right wing agendas.

    So yeah, nah. You’ll have to do better than that.

    You’ve never had any cred with me since your infamous Turnbull demise poll. So flutter away.

    The reality is that you and your kindred souls love it while you can mouth off. But, never understand that just because the other side is not engaged does not mean you are winning. You also go all gooey when you are put to the sword.

    I’m the PB swash buckler!

    beware.

  4. From Rundle in today’s Crikey:

    ‘
    …

    Well, we already know the answer. The cultural right remains situated in face-to-face life, and its religious contingent have a collective consciousness that the cultural left has largely lost. The former submerge their self-hoods into boring services, boring meetings, boring demos. The cultural left have single demos that double as performance art extravaganzas. Then they go home, and “like” photos of the wittiest placards on their twibonned Instagram. The danger for the Yes case is that they won’t have done enough to convince advocates that simply expressing your affect is not enough to get out the vote. Any real encounter is worth twenty, thirty, fifty, a hundred online ones. But real encounters — getting in the face of busy people — is icky, and doubly icky for the digital homesteaders of the Yes case.

    This is how Yes might lose — in the same way that Brexit was lost, Trump became President, Obama lost Ted Kennedy’s seat, and the Senate, in his first term, and so on. I actually think they probably won’t, though I think the No case will leap far beyond their 30% base, but it will only be because of the rightness of the cause itself (in current liberal terms), as a simple extension of the domain of equality. There may not be much in it. The Yes case cannot find the enthusiasm to advocate for a right they believe, US-style, is implicit and God-given, rather than something to be politically achieved. The No case has spotted an opportunity to stop the progressive advance in its tracks, not merely in Australia, but in the Anglosphere West. They dream of the audacious upset, as they pound the pavements of Campsie, Ringwood, Semaphore, Mandurah, Indooroopilly. They will regard anything above 40% as a win, and use it accordingly.
    …’

  5. shiftaling @ #399 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 7:32 pm

    I don’t respond to trolls. Luckily my life is not dependent on Christian charity or employment so I’m ok. Doesn’t make it right that discrimination is tolerated in this secular society. In fact I’m hopeful that the lords of the Church may have overplayed their hand by threatening to sack us and cancel the weddings of our allies. ma.y people had no idea that such rampant discrimination is tolerated in this country and it’s a very ugly look.

    The classic’Gooey” PBer. Totally independent. but needs the herd to confirm their existence.

  6. Division in the ranks?

    BHP distances itself from MCA

    6:21PM​​MATT CHAMBERS
    BHP has officially split from the Minerals Council of Australia’s climate change position and renewed calls for a CET.

    (Oz headline)

  7. So, if the No case on marriage equality loses………are they then, officially, and with an ABS survey to back up the assertion, the Noisy Minority rather than the Silent Majority RWNJobbies like to think of themselves as??


  8. They dream of the audacious upset, as they pound the pavements of Campsie, Ringwood, Semaphore, Mandurah, Indooroopilly. They will regard anything above 40% as a win, and use it accordingly.

    40% the basis for a noisy minority.

  10. The classic’Gooey” PBer. Totally independent. but needs the herd to confirm their existence.

    Been offended by a gay person recently?

  13. I checked my PO box at lunchtime and my postal survey had arrived. Sat in the car to open it, tick Yes, popped it in the prepaid envelope and shoved it in the mailbox at the post office.

  17. I’m actually writing a loan for a homosexual couple tomorrow.

    what’s the big deal about that? It actually wouldn’t be a big deal, you know, if people didn’t make a big deal…

  22. confessions
    adrian:

    I caught up with Roger Corbett from last night. Where does our media find these dinosaurs?

    Got GG to provide a list of his mates. 😐

  26. Barney in Go Dau

    The business organises entertainment for children’s parties.

    “The woman was an independent contractor, and not a direct employee of Ms Sims’ business.”

    So basically the business is acting as an agent for the entertainers.

    So the action just seems to be the same as any agent deciding to no longer represent a client.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-19/same-sex-marriage-survey-canberra-business-ditches-contractor/8958176

    The lady in question should be able to find another firm organising children’s parties (e.g. she could advertise at this school where the principal has told parents they should vote ‘no’.)

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/brindballa-christian-college-urges-no-vote-in-samesex-marriage-survey-20170918-gyjg6u.html

  28. The Parrott has a Sky News show called Jones and Co, this is the quality of observation

    “Alan Jones now telling people not to use AGL for electricity, and accusing Turnbull of “crossing the floor” to support renewables?!”

  30. adrian:

    When Corbett said that marriage should be between a man and woman because a man and woman create children, Sales missed an opportunity to ask why then shouldn’t infertile or post-menopausal couples also be denied the right to marry.

  31. bemused @ #423 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:08 pm

    confessions
    adrian:

    I caught up with Roger Corbett from last night. Where does our media find these dinosaurs?

    Got GG to provide a list of his mates. 😐

    You’ve been remarkably amphibious during the SSM debate. perhaps you can out yourself about your true feelings and opinions. It would be more interesting than going with the usual snark.

  34. Dan,

    That highlights an important element in the debate, at it’s most basic level it’s a question of biology, something that is not a strong suit for religion.

  41. The Right have a nice delusion going that if the Yes vote fails, the issue will go away. It won’t. It isn’t the same as the republic, which didn’t directly impact on people’s lives in any significant way.

    The Right are also gearing up to play games with the outcome – “Only 36% of the population voted ‘yes’..’ being an example.

    They’ve been able to get away with the ‘survey’ because people like the idea of direct democracy. But that’s a two edged sword. They expect the outcome to be honoured. If pollies of any stripe play games with it, they will be all the more outraged.

    ME will be legislated. It’s a matter of when. All the fulminating against the idea is ultimately an exercise in futility.

  42. Spoke with an AGL shareholder yesterday. Definitely not impressed with the way the Turnbull Silly Buggers has impacted the share price.

  44. zoomster @ #442 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:21 pm

    The Right have a nice delusion going that if the Yes vote fails, the issue will go away. It won’t. It isn’t the same as the republic, which didn’t directly impact on people’s lives in any significant way.

    The Right are also gearing up to play games with the outcome – “Only 36% of the population voted ‘yes’..’ being an example.

    They’ve been able to get away with the ‘survey’ because people like the idea of direct democracy. But that’s a two edged sword. They expect the outcome to be honoured. If pollies of any stripe play games with it, they will be all the more outraged.

    ME will be legislated. It’s a matter of when. All the fulminating against the idea is ultimately an exercise in futility.

    Dream,

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANy4x3wgTSA

  45. zoomster:

    It’s more like the stolen generations apology. That never went away until one was actually delivered. And lo and behold now we see opponents of that accepting that they were wrong to boycott the apology and to oppose it.

    ME will be the same.

  46. Greensborough Growler @ #431 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:14 pm

    bemused @ #423 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:08 pm

    confessions
    adrian:

    I caught up with Roger Corbett from last night. Where does our media find these dinosaurs?

    Got GG to provide a list of his mates. 😐

    You’ve been remarkably amphibious during the SSM debate. perhaps you can out yourself about your true feelings and opinions. It would be more interesting than going with the usual snark.

    What do you want to know other than I voted yes?

  48. bemused @ #447 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:30 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #431 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:14 pm

    bemused @ #423 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 8:08 pm

    confessions
    adrian:

    I caught up with Roger Corbett from last night. Where does our media find these dinosaurs?

    Got GG to provide a list of his mates. 😐

    You’ve been remarkably amphibious during the SSM debate. perhaps you can out yourself about your true feelings and opinions. It would be more interesting than going with the usual snark.

    What do you want to know other than I voted yes?

    While I’m not trying to verbal you, you were fairly ambivalent a few weeks ago.

    Most PBers would be interested in your transitional process.

    Cheers.

  50. John Reidy @ #379 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 7:09 pm

    Good posts by ratsak today.
    What I don’t get is if Trumble is so happy with the PPM figures against Shorten, where they appear to have him right where they want him, they continue with the Kill Bill strategy, and attack Labor at any opportunity.

    Perhaps the press gallery can explain.

    Ta,

    The reason for Kill Bill is that Trumble is a moron, but he’s not so stupid as to think PPM means a pinch of shit. He knows he needs to turn voters against Shorten more than he’s turned voters against himself.

    Where he is stupid is in probably thinking his PPM lead gives him a bit of insulation to go low and not suffer more blow back than his target cops.

    That would work if anything he and his government did was worth a damn to the average voter. Most people feel like they are going backwards personally and that the country is going no where generally. Having a PM trying to load up all the worlds problems on the LOTO in those circumstances isn’t going to cut any ice.

    Howard and Costello could get away with all sorts of crap because they dished out lolly to just about everyone every May (and often a bit more in Dec). No voters were particularly impressed by this year’s ‘big spending Labor – lite’ budget (still waiting for the bounce Gallery peanuts…). Next budget and the one after aren’t likely to be much better because 1. conditions don’t allow it, and 2. they’re too stupid to dump crap policies like tax cuts for big business in order to spread the love to the plebs.

    If by some miracle Trumble and ScoMo did go all in and produce a real Labor budget then the obvious questions are ‘what is the point of a Liberal government?’, ‘if we’re just getting a poor imitation why wouldn’t we vote for the real thing?’. If the debt and deficit disaster is finally shot in the head and any pretense of a balanced budget between now and eternity is dead then Liberal Magic Pixie Dust Economic Management becomes surplus to requirements. Voters always rate Labor better at spending on the things they want. The hard dry neo liberal ideologues will go to war with Trumble and try and get a true believer in place. So Trumble can’t go tax and spend for the same reason he can’t currently do anything the looniest of his lot don’t want.

    So that’s it. A diminished and still shrinking empty suit with nothing to offer the electorate and no hope of being able to offer them in future even if he knew what to offer. Kill Bill is all they have. It’s a desperate play, and the depths of the desperation is even more obvious when you realise they still have almost two years left in their term. If they had any competence or any hope of imitating it they’d be getting on with it and putting in place some policies that would pay off in year three like a proper government. That’s way beyond these dopes so they’ll stick to what they are capable of – coming up with new infantile names for Shorten.

    Trumble will take his PPM lead into defeat like pretty much every other PM that has lost an election.

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