BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

New poll this week from Newspoll (better for the Coalition), Essential Research (worse) and YouGov (about the same) add up to no change at all on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, except that the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Western Australia. The leadership ratings from Newspoll cause Malcolm Turnbull to gain a little ground on preferred prime minister, but lose it on net approval. Full details at the bottom.

First though, some news on forthcoming by-elections, which will get dedicated pages and threads soon enough:

• A date is yet to be set for the by-election in the Victorian state seat of Northcote following the death of on August 23. There will presumably be no Liberal candidate, but the Greens are highly competitive in the seat, having fallen 6.0% short of unseating Richardson at the 2014 election. Clare Burns, a political organiser with the Victorian Trades Hall Council and former speech pathologist, has been preselected unopposed as Labor’s candidate. The Greens will hold a preselection ballot today.

• There are now three state by-elections looming in New South Wales, and the date for them has been set at October 14. Cootamundra and Blacktown were already on the cards, following the respective retirements of Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson and Labor MP John Robertson, and Murray was added to the list earlier this week after Nationals MP Adrian Piccoli announced his retirement.

And some localised polling snippets:

• There was a rare Northern Territory opinion poll a fortnight ago, conducted by MediaReach for the Northern Territory News and encompassing a sample of 1400. On the primary vote, the poll has Labor on 43%, compared with 42.2% last year; the Country Liberal Party on 38%, recovering from 31.8%; and “others” on 19%. The respondent-allocated preference result is 50-50, compared with 58.5-41.5 to Labor last year, which implies a near-perfect reversal of the 63-37 preference split in favour of Labor last year.

• (UPDATE: I had a report here on Tony Windsor’s prospects on New England, but I wasn’t looking closely enough and it was actually from before the last election.)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

795 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

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  1. Insiders ABC‏Verified account @InsidersABC 1h1 hour ago
    Good morning! On #Insiders, @andrewprobyn will interview @ScottMorrisonMP. On the panel: @murpharoo, Michael Stutchbury & @Riley7News.

    Morrison, Stutchbury and Riley. No thank you.

  4. Phil Ruddock has actually gone back to his small ‘l’ Liberal roots by coming out of the blocks straight away and telling the State government to keep their greedy hands off ‘the lungs of Sydney!’, Kuringai Chase National Park, in the Hornsby Council area.

  8. Confessions

    If the Yes campaign is as effective in getting out the vote as it was in getting people to enrol to vote the LNP plan could well come undone.

    I am hoping the innate decency of Australians will win the day and that the hate campaign will make enough angry enough to vote.

  9. Steve777, the number 2 Labor candidate in the Gosford East Ward was under no illusions. You should see the houses around here! It’s why I call it Australia’s Malibu. : )

  10. gt

    Nope its Andrew Probyn not Cassidy this morning. Late change.

    Cassidy fading himself out.

    With Uhlmann effectively side-lining himself with indulgent outbursts Probyn must be the envy of his peers by his deft slide into safe haven at the ABC.

  11. Itzadream: ‘Very much geared for a no result’

    I thought the statements were accurate as they were describing the change that has been proposed. What would you have written under the picture?

  13. Is there a volunteer to listen to Scott Motor-mouth and report back. The man doesn’t talk. He basically spits with words attached.

  19. Barney in Go Dau @ #415 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 9:07 am

    I think they should have got Grog to interview Morrison.

    Here’s his latest on the “benefits” of tax cuts for the wealthy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/sep/10/tax-cuts-for-the-rich-dont-help-the-rest-dont-take-my-word-for-it-ask-the-imf

    You don’t think politicians would allow themselves to be interviewed by someone knowledgeable on their subject, do you?! That’s why they only do interviews with tame journalists.

  20. lizzie

    I’m volunteering but may not stay the course!

    I often try but the lure of the ‘mute’ button often gets the better of me.

  21. So I went to see some sports last night (couldn’t convince my OH that watching the council election results would be more fun)

    A huge number of the swans fans had rainbow scarves/jerseys on from the diversity round. There was also someone holding up a banner for a yes response to ‘tony abbots survey’. This person with the banner either planned well, or was lucky, as their seat was right in front of Turnbull’s.

    Thanks sports fans for helping everyone feel welcome

  24. Steve777

    NRL crowds in Sydney have always been lower than AFL crowds in Melbourne. I think it’s a thing that Sydneysiders have a lower tendency to watch sport live.

    There might be several reasons:
    – Climate: Winter in Sydney is mild and fairly sunny compared to Melbourne. There are more choices for outdoor activity in Winter in Sydney and Sydney is more attractive than Melbourne to be outdoors in Winter.
    – Traffic and parking: worse in Sydney than Melbourne. I avoid crowds for that reason, many others probably do to.
    – Not many people in Sydney seem to be as passionate about NRL as was common in past years. AFL fans seem to be more passionate.

    0 Sunday, September 10, 2017 7:50 am

    I think there is a simpler explanation for the relatively low crowd numbers at NRL games: AFL has a better, more exciting product.

  26. I dont understand the hate for Mark Riley. Sure he may not be everyones cup of tea or his outlook is different, but hes credible. Plus its important to see what the major tv commercial networks are up to.

  31. I can’t stand any more Morrison.

    What I hate are interviews that pussy foot around the edges and don’t go to the core belief.
    Why doesn’t he simply ask Morrison why he believes that giving businesses more profit means they will hire any more people?

    Underpants gnomes time..

  33. “No coal Joel in Hunter”, but we saved Whyalla.
    Go Andrew, more argumentative than Cassidy. “You haven’t got an energy policy.”

  44. PeeBee @ #372 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:52 am

    ‘“The reality is when we moved from one form of technology, say the horse and cart to the car, there wasn’t a government in place taxing, regulating or subsidising the car.’

    That might be true George, but you forget to mention that every coal fired electricity generator was built with government money (100% subsidy). So it seems logical that renewables would need subsidies to compete.

    Except it’s not true.

    The entire automotive industry was given enormous subsidies, subsidies which continue to this day.

  46. Whisper @ #390 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 6:32 am

    Thinking about WA secession proposal. It seems likely Russia was involved as in Texas and Brexit all these facebook entries point that way 🙂

    I doubt it. The Liberal party cooked that one up all for themselves.

    Secession, like daylight savings, rears it’s ugly head periodically on slow news days.

  48. grimace

    Secession, like daylight savings, rears it’s ugly head periodically on slow news days.

    It gives the rest of us something to have a chuckle about.

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