BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

New poll this week from Newspoll (better for the Coalition), Essential Research (worse) and YouGov (about the same) add up to no change at all on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, except that the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Western Australia. The leadership ratings from Newspoll cause Malcolm Turnbull to gain a little ground on preferred prime minister, but lose it on net approval. Full details at the bottom.

First though, some news on forthcoming by-elections, which will get dedicated pages and threads soon enough:

• A date is yet to be set for the by-election in the Victorian state seat of Northcote following the death of on August 23. There will presumably be no Liberal candidate, but the Greens are highly competitive in the seat, having fallen 6.0% short of unseating Richardson at the 2014 election. Clare Burns, a political organiser with the Victorian Trades Hall Council and former speech pathologist, has been preselected unopposed as Labor’s candidate. The Greens will hold a preselection ballot today.

• There are now three state by-elections looming in New South Wales, and the date for them has been set at October 14. Cootamundra and Blacktown were already on the cards, following the respective retirements of Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson and Labor MP John Robertson, and Murray was added to the list earlier this week after Nationals MP Adrian Piccoli announced his retirement.

And some localised polling snippets:

• There was a rare Northern Territory opinion poll a fortnight ago, conducted by MediaReach for the Northern Territory News and encompassing a sample of 1400. On the primary vote, the poll has Labor on 43%, compared with 42.2% last year; the Country Liberal Party on 38%, recovering from 31.8%; and “others” on 19%. The respondent-allocated preference result is 50-50, compared with 58.5-41.5 to Labor last year, which implies a near-perfect reversal of the 63-37 preference split in favour of Labor last year.

(UPDATE: I had a report here on Tony Windsor’s prospects on New England, but I wasn’t looking closely enough and it was actually from before the last election.)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

795 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

  1. Jolyon Wagg @ #424 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 9:15 am

    Steve777

    NRL crowds in Sydney have always been lower than AFL crowds in Melbourne. I think it’s a thing that Sydneysiders have a lower tendency to watch sport live.

    There might be several reasons:
    – Climate: Winter in Sydney is mild and fairly sunny compared to Melbourne. There are more choices for outdoor activity in Winter in Sydney and Sydney is more attractive than Melbourne to be outdoors in Winter.
    – Traffic and parking: worse in Sydney than Melbourne. I avoid crowds for that reason, many others probably do to.
    – Not many people in Sydney seem to be as passionate about NRL as was common in past years. AFL fans seem to be more passionate.

    0 Sunday, September 10, 2017 7:50 am

    I think there is a simpler explanation for the relatively low crowd numbers at NRL games: AFL has a better, more exciting product.

    Both tend to be rather boring to me.
    But Steve’s point about Sydney offering more alternatives is correct.
    Melbourne is very ‘monocultural’ by comparison.

  2. An alternative view.

    Eddy Jokovich‏ @EddyJokovich · 2m2 minutes ago

    That was the worst @insiders program ever. Matesy, lack of depth, irrelevant. Time to give up. #insiders

  3. Irma is going to test Florida’s infrastructure.

    And Florida, like every state in an era of tightening budgets, has deferred costly maintenance on much of its infrastructure, said Addie Javed, a former president of the Florida section of the American Society of Civil Engineers.

    “Deferred maintenance is the biggest problem; later or sooner you’re going to be paying for that,” he said. “You want to make sure that your infrastructure is in top shape when a disaster like this happens.”

    As South Florida’s population has swelled in recent decades, its roads, water and sewage treatment plants and other facilities have struggled to keep pace. Much of the state’s infrastructure is now nearing the end of its useful life, so maintenance is even more important, Mr. Javed said.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/09/us/irma-florida-infrastructure-okeechobee.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=b-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

  4. I think Insiders is on the ABC to allow PB’ers the opportunity to talk back to the TV…My 88 year old dad talks back to his TV all the time…..I once said to him..” dad,you do realise that they can’t hear you “…to which he smiiled and said..” I know, but it makes me feel better”

  5. I think Murphy has finally had enough of the crippling of our country by the Lib’s short term political expediency measures.

    She might be a fan of Malcolm’s (or was) but the shit the Libs have been getting up to defies all ‘governing logic’ and she is starting to care more about the country than the beltway political entertainment.

    IOW the stakes are getting high and she is getting serious. No more trying to paint a rosy picture when the ‘fake’ facts are being trundled out by the conservatives as Trumpian electioneering tactic.

    I think she, and other more serious journalists can see us going the way of the US if this rubbish is allowed to just take over uncontested.

  6. OC

    Assuming that the accuseds did not intend the consequences of their acts, then it is misadventure which rarely yields a conviction for manslaughter in Australia.

    Should be interesting to see whether they participated in interviews with police.

    A combination of an employer being involved in the procedure with unqualified employees and maybe language difficulties sounds like a hard case which may be pleaded out.

  7. vic:

    Quite so. Just imagine where the debate on AGW would be if the media, esp the ABC hadn’t decided to balance the facts and truth with unfacts and untruths.

  8. lizzie @ #449 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 7:46 am

    Riley just said that AGL can’t lose because they will turn to gas and make a motsa.

    AGL are doing that because they can read the writing on the wall about coal.

    In the 18 months to June 2017*, Australia added an average of 61MW per month of small scale PV systems, or just over 1GW. If you look at the first six months of 2017*, the average is 74MW per month of small scale PV or 444MW.

    Using the lower average of 61MW per month to extrapolate out to the end of 2022, in the 66 months to the end of 2022, we’ll add 4GW of small scale PV. Using the higher average of 74MW achieves 4.9GW in that time.

    Then we add a couple of GW of large scale PV and the few GW of wind which is currently under construction, then factor in that a reasonable amount of the planned projects will get up and will add a few GW to that total, and you reach the conclusion that only an idiot would pour hundreds of millions into refurbishing a 50-year-old coal power plant with a history of being unreliable

    * I’ve used data to June 17 because there appears to be a lag in reporting which under reports the last couple of months of the year.

  9. Probyn did a reasonable job against Morrison, but you could see the grin on his face when Probyn said we are out of time. He was able to get across all of his talking points,e.g. ‘no coal Joel ‘. They haven’t moved on since last year when he brought a lump of coal into parliament.
    And they say they are technology agnostic and Labor is ideological.

    I also didn’t like the diminutives ‘Probes ‘, ‘Sutch ‘, ‘Murph’ and ‘Riles’ a bit like a private school. I guess it is called ‘Insiders’.

  10. Bernard Keane‏Verified account @BernardKeane · 5m5 minutes ago

    Late stage neoliberalism: government gingerly asks business if they’d mind not continuing the decades long shift of income to profit share.

  11. Jenauthor – I think that Murphy is taking the lead from her boss, Lenore Taylor, who is leading the way on energy/climate change (who I note has also veered more to the left since joining the Guardian).

  12. I couldn’t stomach watching the Morrison bit – he fills every second with his own voice to avoid answering actual questions to the point he is just a wall of noise.

    Stutchbury strikes me as an Elvis fan (way he dresses/hair etc.) I suspect the views he reflects, despite being editor of an economic paper that once had a good reputation, come from the era when Elvis was at the height of his popularity.

  13. Heads-up folks. My new historical saga book comes out Tuesday our time – will put up a link then. There is politics in it! And blood, guts and gore.

    Alas no polling though. Sorry William 🙂

  14. We hear very little about the WA communities that were closed. This is a typical example of government imposing their will on aboriginal communities. Did I hear someone say the miners required the land to be cleared of objectors?

    It’s been a journey of tragedy and dispossession for this 27-year-old Wajuk, Balardung, Kija and Yulparitja man, who was working as a college administrator when he joined the protest against the forced closure of isolated communities by the Western Australia state government – including Mulan, the community he had lived in as a child.

    https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/sep/08/6000km-only-20-minutes-with-the-pm-prime-minister-clinton-pryor-relives-epic-walk-across-australia-indigenous?CMP=share_btn_tw

  15. Nah, Lenore has always been left. Not always a big fan of the ALP tho’.

    She is my favourite and I used to enjoy Insiders when she was on. The disdain she had for Hendo was clear for all to see – it almost matched the disdain Hendo seems to have for humans.

  16. There is now a political vacuum in Australia as the Nationals have completely abandoned farmers/horticulturalists with their declaration against renewables yesterday..

    NFF may soon become the NFP (National Farmers’ Party)..

  17. in the debate on AFL/NRL crowds (TV ratings are another story that the Victorians don’t talk about) the fundamental demographic of Rugby League tends to be ignored. League started as the working/lower middle class game while Union was upper middle/upper class. League’s attempts to escape that demographic have been largely unsuccessful. League and greyhounds continue to be a natural mix. Meanwhile Union is on its last legs in Sydney and I suspect much of the Swans support comes from that demographic.

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