BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

New poll this week from Newspoll (better for the Coalition), Essential Research (worse) and YouGov (about the same) add up to no change at all on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, except that the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Western Australia. The leadership ratings from Newspoll cause Malcolm Turnbull to gain a little ground on preferred prime minister, but lose it on net approval. Full details at the bottom.

First though, some news on forthcoming by-elections, which will get dedicated pages and threads soon enough:

• A date is yet to be set for the by-election in the Victorian state seat of Northcote following the death of on August 23. There will presumably be no Liberal candidate, but the Greens are highly competitive in the seat, having fallen 6.0% short of unseating Richardson at the 2014 election. Clare Burns, a political organiser with the Victorian Trades Hall Council and former speech pathologist, has been preselected unopposed as Labor’s candidate. The Greens will hold a preselection ballot today.

• There are now three state by-elections looming in New South Wales, and the date for them has been set at October 14. Cootamundra and Blacktown were already on the cards, following the respective retirements of Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson and Labor MP John Robertson, and Murray was added to the list earlier this week after Nationals MP Adrian Piccoli announced his retirement.

And some localised polling snippets:

• There was a rare Northern Territory opinion poll a fortnight ago, conducted by MediaReach for the Northern Territory News and encompassing a sample of 1400. On the primary vote, the poll has Labor on 43%, compared with 42.2% last year; the Country Liberal Party on 38%, recovering from 31.8%; and “others” on 19%. The respondent-allocated preference result is 50-50, compared with 58.5-41.5 to Labor last year, which implies a near-perfect reversal of the 63-37 preference split in favour of Labor last year.

(UPDATE: I had a report here on Tony Windsor’s prospects on New England, but I wasn’t looking closely enough and it was actually from before the last election.)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

795 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 16
1 4 5 6 16
  1. Itza:

    Mixed panel discussion this week. S.E Cupp can be annoying when she hogs the airtime, but the guy on the panel was hilariously funny.

  2. ID

    Could the error be a reporting mistake? A missing ‘m’?”
    Its possible it was a reporting error, but not a missing m as you’d never give 1.5mg of tramadol. The court documents say it was a mix of lignocaine and tramadol and hyaluronic acid.
    I thought, like you, that it must have been lignocaine toxicity esp if they injected into the intercostal muscles rather than breast tissue. It makes more sense than giving fifteen vials of tramadol.

  3. The Chinese tourist was definitely performing an illegal act and if you kill someone whilst doing something illegal, you are in a lot of trouble.
    The owner of the clinic will also be for the high jump.

  4. VP
    1.5ml of tramadol would be a reasonable dose.
    I don’t know why they were injecting hyaluronic acid anyway. It dissolves over a year and it’s really expensive, like $300 a ml. You’d need a big volume to make any difference.

  5. poroti

    Excellent effort by French artist JR on the Mexican/US wall.

    ************************************************************************

    An excellent TV series is the US version of ‘The Bridge’ ( loosely based on the slightly better Denmark/Sweden Bron/Broen ) but its about two detectives working together to take down a serial killer operating on both sides of the Texas-Chihuahua border…..and shows elaborate tunnelling between the two cities that funnel illegal immigrants across the border and the perils that they are subjected to..

  6. Bill Shorten MP
    14 mins ·
    Australians have had a gutfull of Malcolm blaming everyone else. He’s the prime minister, the Liberals have been in government for four years now.

    This is an energy crisis happening right now – not in 2022.

    If I was prime minister right now, I would make sure more gas stays in Australia at lower prices. I would end the war on renewables and implement a clean energy target. And I’d prepare a strategic energy reserve to stop the blackouts this summer.

    It beggars belief that Malcolm Turnbull is refusing to pull the trigger on gas controls – every day he delays, it builds the risk of more blackouts and higher power prices.

    If prices keep going up this year and if there are blackouts this summer, Australians will have one person to blame: Malcolm Turnbull.

    He’s the Prime Minister – he has the power to fix this.

  7. confessions @ #212 Saturday, September 9th, 2017 – 3:06 pm

    Bill Shorten MP

    If I was prime minister right now, I would make sure more gas stays in Australia at lower prices. I would end the war on renewables and implement a clean energy target. And I’d prepare a strategic energy reserve to stop the blackouts this summer.

    Bill making sense yet again … the bastard! : )

  8. CTar 1
    The search gets scarier as I get into it – would you like 100Kg at a discount, same day mailing? One site had a question area with at least one question from Australia. Are customs effective in stopping this?

    I wonder if this has exposed the tip of the iceberg with fly by night cosmetic joints all over the country hitting their patients with great whacks of illegally obtained opioids.

  9. lizzie – One of my relatives once described socks as protestant items.

    “you put them in the washing machine as pairs and they come out single”

    🙂

  10. Energy policy was front and centre at the Nationals federal conference in Canberra, which Mr Joyce addressed on Saturday morning.

    “Somewhere between floor 13 and 14 the lift will stop with you in it – an uncomfortable experience if you need to go to the bathroom,” the Nationals leader said.

    Ensuring baseload power supply meant seeking coal fired power solutions – including seeking to extend the life of the Liddell power station in NSW, Mr Joyce said.

    Queensland Nationals senator and former resources minister Matthew Canavan said when it came to jobs, renewables were “just a short term sugar hit”.

    “We’ve taken all the subsidies away from our farming sector and now the biggest protection racket going around is in our renewable energy sector,” Mr Canavan told the conference.

    Mr Joyce said renewables were here to stay.

    “We have our international obligations,” he said. “But we must not lose sight of where the main game is, and baseload coal fired power it is and will remain.”

    Ahead of an emergency motion on Sunday to ban the burqa, put forward by Queensland National MP George Christensen, Mr Joyce would not reveal how he would vote.

    “I love the democracy of my party. George is a good mate, but we don’t necessarily agree on every issue,” he said.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/37017973/burqa-broadband-on-nats-meeting-agenda/

  11. OC

    Maybe tracking the sales of constipation remedies might give a hint (that is if the injected form has the same effect as the tablet form).

  12. Socrates:

    It’s just like how so many working class voters in America believed Trump was going to look after the ‘little guy’.

  13. lizzie, your sock cartoon reminded me of this.

    [“The Hitch Hiker’s Guide to the Galaxy is a very unevenly edited book and contains many passages that simply seemed to its editors like a good idea at the time.

    One of these (the one Arthur now came across) supposedly relates the experiences of one Veet Voojagig, a quiet young student at the University of Maximegalon, who pursued a brilliant academic career studying ancient philology, transformational ethics and the wave harmonic theory of historical perception, and then, after a night of drinking Pan Galactic Gargle Blasters with Zaphod Beeblebrox, became increasingly obsessed with the problem of what had happened to all the biros he’d bought over the past few years.

    There followed a long period of painstaking research during which he visited all the major centres of biro loss throughout the galaxy and eventually came up with a quaint little theory which quite caught the public imagination at the time. Somewhere in the cosmos, he said, along with all the planets inhabited by humanoids, reptiloids, fishoids, walking treeoids and superintelligent shades of the colour blue, there was also a planet entirely given over to biro life forms. And it was to this planet that unattended biros would make their way, slipping away quietly through wormholes in space to a world where they knew they could enjoy a uniquely biroid lifestyle, responding to highly biro-oriented stimuli, and generally leading the biro equivalent of the good life.

    And as theories go this was all very fine and pleasant until Veet Voojagig suddenly claimed to have found this planet, and to have worked there for a while driving a limousine for a family of cheap green retractables, whereupon he was taken away, locked up, wrote a book, and was finally sent into tax exile, which is the usual fate reserved for those who are determined to make a fool of themselves in public.

    When one day an expedition was sent to the spatial coordinates that Voojagig had claimed for this planet they discovered only a small asteroid inhabited by a solitary old man who claimed repeatedly that nothing was true, though he was later discovered to be lying.

    There did, however, remain the question of both the mysterious 60,000 Altairan dollars paid yearly into his Brantisvogan bank account, and of course Zaphod Beeblebrox’s highly profitable second-hand biro business.”

    Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy]

  14. lizzie

    I’ve got a range of them with different coloured tips on the heels and toes.

    I never wear shoes inside.

    One of the family children visiting pointed out to me the other day the pair I had on were ‘odd’.

    I countered with when I’m ‘out’ no one can tell.

    She reckons ‘sneaky”.

  15. Diogenes @ #204 Saturday, September 9th, 2017 – 2:45 pm

    ID

    Could the error be a reporting mistake? A missing ‘m’?”
    Its possible it was a reporting error, but not a missing m as you’d never give 1.5mg of tramadol. The court documents say it was a mix of lignocaine and tramadol and hyaluronic acid.
    I thought, like you, that it must have been lignocaine toxicity esp if they injected into the intercostal muscles rather than breast tissue. It makes more sense than giving fifteen vials of tramadol.

    I’d still like to know where the needle tip ended up.

    I’ve got a hyaluronidase * story. Our hospital was in short supply, and as I was visiting the Mayo Clinic in Phoenix, our Eye Dept asked if I could try and source some. I was heavily involved in eye surgery anaesthesia. The head of Anaesthesiology there was an expat Melburnian and it was all easy peasy (think money). I got back to LA with a pack of about a 100 (not sure exactly) of these little vials, then with metal caps (Xray opaque) with a rubber stopper. All above board.

    Except the bag was missing, lost. Noone showed the slightest interest in my lost bag till as a last resort I, with a touch of hyperbole (as is my bent), explained to the wide-eyed African American counter clerk that in fact the missing bag contained a dangerous dissolving drug (here’s the paper work Madam) which probably showed up on screening as drug vials, and if mistakenly stolen, misused and injected, the user would melt away into nothingness. They traced the bag in 5 minutes. (It had gone to NYC).

    Getting through customs in Sydney was a nightmare reserved only for the naive.

    (* mixed with local anaesthetic, it augments the dispersion of injected local anaesthetic by ‘softening up’ the tissues, and is used routinely in the injection of local around the eyeball for eye surgery)

  16. NWS Key West @NWSKeyWest
    ·
    1h
    #Irma, now a Cat 5, continues to churn north of Cuba in the Straits of Florida, This morning may be your last chance to Evacuate!!! #FLKeys

  17. poroti

    phoenixRED

    Not sure what would be more dangerous, the drug cartel gangs near the border or the serial killer !

    *****************************************************

    You are right Poroti – the crime rate in the border town Ciudad Juarez makes it one of the most dangerous places in the world for crime/murder …especially the hundreds of dead women that have been found in the desert there ( portrayed in the movie *Backyard* – often shown on SBS )

    Juárez – is once again one of the most dangerous cities in the world, according to a group that releases annual rankings.

    Juárez was among eight Mexican cities on the list, which included Acapulco in the No. 2 spot. The most violent city in the world was Caracas, Venezuela. Four U.S. cities also made the list, including St. Louis, Mo., Baltimore, Md., New Orleans, La., and Detroit, Mich. They ranked 14, 26, 34 and 36, respectively.

    http://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/2017/04/13/jurez-among-most-dangerous-cities-world/100425962/

  18. CTar1

    Crunchtime comes when the doctor suddenly says “Remove your shoes, please.”
    That happened to Ken, revealing holes in the heels (He wouldn’t let me darn them , said the darns were uncomfortable.)

  19. lizzie @ #129 Saturday, September 9th, 2017 – 12:27 pm

    P1

    Sorry, but I’m not prejudiced against Annabel, either.

    Neither am I Lizzie and I have never understood the hatred of her by some here.
    Some of the stuff she wrote about the “Ruddbot” used to have me in stitches.
    It is her ‘thing’ to approach politics with a bit of humour. Doesn’t always work, but she has done lots of good stuff.

  20. Diogenes @ #211 Saturday, September 9th, 2017 – 2:57 pm

    VP
    1.5ml of tramadol would be a reasonable dose.
    I don’t know why they were injecting hyaluronic acid anyway. It dissolves over a year and it’s really expensive, like $300 a ml. You’d need a big volume to make any difference.

    Dio, it is still routinely used with local in some circumstances, especially peribulbar injections, see previous post. I dilute a vial of 1500 IU into 10ml and add 1 or 2 mls (150 – 300 IU) to a 1o ml syringe for an eye block.

  21. I was admiring the head to toe lineup of paper burrito wrapped roosters… then wondered why someone would have that many roosters.

  22. One of my family stuck in Miami. The airline she works for have not scheduled any flights out for now.

    Her parents concerned.

    I’ve suggested that as the flight crew are all ensconced at the Miami Airport Marriott Hotel that there’s not much chance she’d be needing to do a runner through the mean streets of Miami seeking a public storm shelter.

  23. CTaRI
    Best wishes to friend’s daughter. I hope they have plenty of grog and some good ear muffs. Apparently you drink cold beer until the power gives out and then you drink red wine at room temps.

  24. Love this from PvO. So true of today’s media.

    The modern media, challenged as it is by the disrupting internet, has been overwhelmed by commentary at the expense of journalism. This has meant less in-depth scrutiny of political practice, despite there being more opinions floating around.

    Adding to the malaise is the assault on expertise. It has seemingly become a crime to be a subject-matter expert these days — cause for ridicule from the poorly informed commentator who takes ideological issue with one’s learned judgment. Just as schoolteachers have lost their respect within the classroom, so too have fully qualified experts from the academy. I wouldn’t dream of disregarding my surgeon’s recommended approach to cutting me open, but for some reason a scientist whose expertise is politically difficult to swallow gets pilloried by a conga line of ignorant souls.

  25. SK:

    I’m with you in choosing the more palatable ‘show roosters’. A guy at work breeds roosters to show them at poultry shows and by all accounts he is very successful in his endeavours. We tease him about having a prize-winning cock.

  26. Latest predictions look to have Irma tracking into Florida from the west. This is somewhat good news for the bulk of the Miami folk who live on the east coast.

Comments Page 5 of 16
1 4 5 6 16

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *