BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

New poll this week from Newspoll (better for the Coalition), Essential Research (worse) and YouGov (about the same) add up to no change at all on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, except that the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Western Australia. The leadership ratings from Newspoll cause Malcolm Turnbull to gain a little ground on preferred prime minister, but lose it on net approval. Full details at the bottom.

First though, some news on forthcoming by-elections, which will get dedicated pages and threads soon enough:

• A date is yet to be set for the by-election in the Victorian state seat of Northcote following the death of on August 23. There will presumably be no Liberal candidate, but the Greens are highly competitive in the seat, having fallen 6.0% short of unseating Richardson at the 2014 election. Clare Burns, a political organiser with the Victorian Trades Hall Council and former speech pathologist, has been preselected unopposed as Labor’s candidate. The Greens will hold a preselection ballot today.

• There are now three state by-elections looming in New South Wales, and the date for them has been set at October 14. Cootamundra and Blacktown were already on the cards, following the respective retirements of Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson and Labor MP John Robertson, and Murray was added to the list earlier this week after Nationals MP Adrian Piccoli announced his retirement.

And some localised polling snippets:

• There was a rare Northern Territory opinion poll a fortnight ago, conducted by MediaReach for the Northern Territory News and encompassing a sample of 1400. On the primary vote, the poll has Labor on 43%, compared with 42.2% last year; the Country Liberal Party on 38%, recovering from 31.8%; and “others” on 19%. The respondent-allocated preference result is 50-50, compared with 58.5-41.5 to Labor last year, which implies a near-perfect reversal of the 63-37 preference split in favour of Labor last year.

(UPDATE: I had a report here on Tony Windsor’s prospects on New England, but I wasn’t looking closely enough and it was actually from before the last election.)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

795 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

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  1. ‘confessions

    SK:

    I’m with you in choosing the more palatable ‘show roosters’. ‘

    I suppose that show roosters are more palatable than fighting roosters because they are pampered while the fighting roosters have to make their own way in the world.

  2. **We tease him about having a prize-winning cock.**
    I bet you do.
    I get teased about my well washed, scrubbed and freshly oiled deck.

  3. SK

    A brother-in-law had a fetish for decking oil.

    I learnt not to mention same because it lead to a 15 minute instruction session about the best brand to use depending on the decks usage and exposure to frost and sun …

  4. I think this rates as comprehensively trashed –

    The entire population of Barbuda, the small Caribbean island devastated by Hurricane Irma, has been evacuated as a second powerful storm, Hurricane Jose, is expected to hit the region on Saturday.

    The Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda, Gaston Browne, said Barbuda had been left “barely habitable” with 95% of its building structures destroyed by Irma.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41199394

  5. Regarding the earlier discussion regarding Hitler and Stalin, no current or recent Australian political leaders come close, but there are probably lots of other Australians who would have been willing recruits for the blackshirts, brownshirts, concentration camp guards and SS, given a different time and place. Many call talkback radio, sport bumper stuckers “* off we’re full” or are employed on Nauru.

    There are probably lots who would take part in ethnic cleansing, unless we accept that Serbs, Burmese, Rwandans and Germans are uniquely wicked and different in some fundamental way from us.

    And there would be many who would quite comfortably slot into a leadership role in regimes like those
    of Pinochet, Mussolini, Franco and the like. Peter Dutton would be one.

  6. probably true Zoid, I vaguely remember from the ’90s, that security services when tapping a phone line were able to recognise and read a fax signal.

  7. C@t
    Good luck. I voted at Terrigal Public school and met the Save The Lake candidate with the slogan “Save Wamberal Beach”. As they and the Liberals are swapping preferences I assume Wamberal Beach will be saved by building high rise beachside units. I have since googled and apparently Save The Lake is a front for the disgraced mayor of Wyong.

  8. The newly constituted consolidated councils are being elected in NSW today.
    C@t is No. 2 on the Labor ticket for East Gosford ward in Central Coast Council (formerly Gosford and Wyong)

  9. OC:

    Ah council elections. We’ve got ours coming up in the near future as well, although party affiliation for candidates isn’t enforced, nor is voting compulsory. All rather dull and drab, with voter participation hovering around the 30% mark.

    Go C@t and I hope she gets up.

  10. OC,
    Thanks. I’m at Wamberal Memorial Hall. Damn wind at this time of year!

    The things I could tell you about STL! Basically they are a party formed by Builders to finagle their way onto Council to vote with the Liberals to pass developments by passing themselves off to the voters as concerned for our waterways. Frauds, basically.

  11. zoomster
    kezza

    I had a 48 hour labour followed by an emergency Caesar. A friend of mine had a vasectomy a few months later and told me I didn’t know how painful it was because I hadn’t had a ‘real’ childbirth.
    ************************************************************
    I hate this ‘comparison’ of pain.
    Pain when it is happening is as bad as it is for the person experiencing it. Sometimes it can be bearable, sometimes not.
    When I had a hemicollectomy for cancer, the abdominal incisional pain was immense.
    When I had the subsequent chemo, the whole body neuropathy, while a different pain, was almost unbearable.
    A good friend of mine who is an anaesthetist who runs a pain service says ‘you do what you need to get on top of the persons pain, whatever that takes, and then stay there’.
    No-one has more pain than someone else, it’s all how well it can be tolerated or managed.
    /soapbox…

  12. Ewart Dave @davidbewart · 2h2 hours ago

    Tony Windsor insists his bid to unseat electoral rival Barnaby Joyce is not driven by dislike. “I just think he’s incompetent,” Windsor

  13. ID
    That would be hyaluronidase rather than hyaluronic acid.
    We use hyaluronic acid as a “filler” eg Restalyne. We sometimes have to use hyaluronidase if there has been too much filler put in to dissolve it.
    I’ve used hyaluronidase with lignocaine for ear setbacks (I had a consultant who liked it).
    The hyaluronidase is heavily cross-linked to make it take a year to break down.

  14. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia @ #291 Saturday, September 9th, 2017 – 6:15 pm

    zoomster
    kezza

    No-one has more pain than someone else, it’s all how well it can be tolerated or managed.
    /soapbox…

    I am not sure that is true.
    I seem to have a fairly high pain threshold. I am not making a virtue of this, it just seems I am fortunate.
    And I have experienced things like kidney stones.

  15. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia @ #292 Saturday, September 9th, 2017 – 6:15 pm

    zoomster
    kezza

    I had a 48 hour labour followed by an emergency Caesar. A friend of mine had a vasectomy a few months later and told me I didn’t know how painful it was because I hadn’t had a ‘real’ childbirth.
    ************************************************************
    I hate this ‘comparison’ of pain.
    Pain when it is happening is as bad as it is for the person experiencing it. Sometimes it can be bearable, sometimes not.
    When I had a hemicollectomy for cancer, the abdominal incisional pain was immense.
    When I had the subsequent chemo, the whole body neuropathy, while a different pain, was almost unbearable.
    A good friend of men who is an anaesthetist who runs a pain service says ‘you do what you need to get on top of the persons pain, whatever that takes, and then stay there’.
    No-one has more pain than someone else, it’s all how well it can be tolerated or managed.
    /soapbox…

    Beautifully put me Lord. There are so many factors at play, not the least fear. Nothing worsens pain’s perception in my experience than fear.

  16. Diogenes @ #295 Saturday, September 9th, 2017 – 6:26 pm

    ID
    That would be hyaluronidase rather than hyaluronic acid.
    We use hyaluronic acid as a “filler” eg Restalyne. We sometimes have to use hyaluronidase if there has been too much filler put in to dissolve it.
    I’ve used hyaluronidase with lignocaine for ear setbacks (I had a consultant who liked it).
    The hyaluronidase is heavily cross-linked to make it take a year to break down.

    Oh. Thanks OC. My Mayo story post noted that what I was talking about was hyaluronidase, and I’ve clearly been misreading, assumption the mother of all f-ups. Thanks for the clarification.

    Then there’s the liposuction LA toxicity cases.

  17. Steve

    The truly awful thing about fascism and totalitarianism and violence to others is that i suspect some of us here on PB would participate enthusiastically if the right set of circumstances occurred.

    Orwell has it right in Animal Farm and in 1984.

    There is nothing different about us than the Germans or others. It i just luck that we have not had the circumstances and the stresses. Recall the massacre of the Japanese POW at Corowa.

    How many of us really question the rights and wrongs of any situation if we have faith and trust in our “Dear Leader.” It is very very hard. If someone you respect and trusts tells you that certain people need to be locked up because they threaten our security very few of us will argue the point and most will nod and accept it and a few will act as turnkeys. If Abbott or Dutton said we will lock all asylum seekers in a desert prison with only enough food and water to prevent death and with minimal medical attention, most of us here would scream pout NO, Wrong!, but if exactly the same thing was proposed by Shorten or Keating, we would probably accept it all reluctantly and find excuses as to why it was better.

  18. C@tmomma @ #290 Saturday, September 9th, 2017 – 6:04 pm

    OC,
    Thanks. I’m at Wamberal Memorial Hall. Damn wind at this time of year!

    The things I could tell you about STL! Basically they are a party formed by Builders to finagle their way onto Council to vote with the Liberals to pass developments by passing themselves off to the voters as concerned for our waterways. Frauds, basically.

    C@tmomma, OC dobbed you in and I’ve been a googlin’ and there you are looking great and I love your platform. Very best wishes.

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