YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov’s latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10”

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  4. Jiminy Crickets.

    A friend rang earlier, from a mobile, held high up in the rare atmosphere of Hill End (in the middle of the road, freezing his ark off), asking me to contact Telstra on his behalf as something had gone wrong with his landline connection.

    FMD. Twenty (exaggeration, but feels like it) phone calls later, finally get through all the privacy protocols to be told to “call back tomorrow”

    The automated voice flatly refused to accept the complaint, or the phone number I wanted to report. Even it It was just bloody lucky I remembered his birth date – day and month, not year.

    What happened to the days when you could just report a fault on another person’s line, the operator checked, and if it was deemed to be a fault, and not just a very very very long phone call that made the other person’s line constantly ‘busy’, they’d fix it. In this case, the fault was with the hardware, and needed a tech to call out to fix it. Not going to happen anytime soon.

    I’m so glad I’m no longer a “client” of Telstra. Despite all the crap that went on with my MTM (that’d be Malcolm Turnbull’s Mess) connection, at least when I have a technical difficulty or fault, I can talk to a real person with my local ISP.

    Funny how the customer service wheel turns.

  5. Thanks C@t!

    Stairway to Heaven is top notch!

    My brother in law loved his music, and I have been listening to so much music over the past few days. The Cure is getting a good run from me!!

  7. kezza2,
    My rules for choosing an NBN supplier were simple:
    1. It was not to be Telstra
    2. It was not to be Optus
    3. It was not to be Dodo
    4. They should have an Australian call centre so I could understand them if I ever had to ring them up!

    I found one that fitted the bill. : )

  10. confessions

    “my music choices old fogey music.”.
    .
    That song is closing in on being half a century old so “old” but definitely not ‘fogey’. Sadly the fogeys were busy taking power whilst the rest were “in to it”.

  12. Below is the content of a post I put up on facebook in response to this article on ABC News http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-23/same-sex-marriage-what-bible-has-to-say-robyn-whitaker/8831826
    “I commend this article to all those who have a view, one way or another, on marriage equality. It highlights what I have been saying for a while “if only those people of faith placed the same emphasis on greed, gossip, injustice, self righteousness, power, pride, theft, violence (to name just a few) as they do on sins of a sexual nature, then the world would be in a better place.”

    I will take your outrage more seriously when I see you posting on facebook, placing advertisments on televison/msm, or contacting your local member of parliament, calling for action against the above behaviour which has a far greater impact on societal cohesion than what takes place between two consenting adults in the privacy of their own home.

    Perhaps it is because in our smugness we know that we have not committed any “sexual sin”, whilst failing to recognise that we are all guilty of sin in some form or another. It is this very type of elitism that Jesus spoke out against when he condemned those who would stone the “woman caught in adultery” or advised us to take care of the plank in our own eye before attempting to remove the speck in another.”

    This is the first time I have posted a “link” so I am not sure if it works.

  13. C@t @ #657

    Yep, yep, yep and yep.

    In fact I know most of the bods at my local ISP; although a passing population, a lot of them attended school with one of my kids. I have no problem supporting their employment, even though about $5 pm extra, and the added bonus is they fix things pronto.

  16. ‘fess

    who consider my music choices old fogey music.

    As I was suggesting to ab earlier you like what you like.

    ‘Slavish’ you must like what trendy critics like is full on t#gging.

    I’ve got about 150 CD’s, (no vinyl) in a decidedly unfashionable rotating rack in my lounge next to an adequate stereo setup, and it’s amazing how many people say ‘I haven’t heard that for ages can I put that on’. Whats available can involve some classical, bits of decent jazz onwards to very recent. I’m a bit ruthless about what I keep and do a clean out about once a year. The only focus to collecting/keeping is that it’s something I’ll listen more than a couple of times.

    TV off and music from the stereo going quietly in the back ground is a common thing for visitors to find going on here.

    The only thing I’m fussy about is putting them back in the right covers. Where they are in the rack I don’t care – every spin of the rack is a voyage of discovery!

  21. Speaking of local employment, my gardener Marty, not Mellors, has gained full-time employment, and as such I was in the market for a new person.

    Wasted a phone call (damn 1300 number) on Jim’s Mowing Services, and despite the advertising that they were available in this area, after going through all the crap, to be told they DON’T service this area.

    (As an aside, how quaint – an opening square bracket gives this

    and the closing square bracket gives

    – I am using C+)

    Anyway, why I’m talking about 1300 numbers is this: because I now have VOIP, I no longer have to pay for mobile calls, local calls, std calls, but I do have to pay for 13 calls.

    You may think I’m being picky but you’d be surprised how many business numbers begin with 13.

    What’s going on there?

  23. sheet

    open square bracket =

    (without the spaces) and
    close square bracket =

    (without the spaces

    I hope that comes through.

    I guess everyone else knew that, cept me.

  24. Okay, so the short-style youtube links (the ones using ‘youtu.be’) are currently broken. For the video to embed correctly, use the longer style link (the ones that go like ‘youtube.com/watch?v=XXXXXX’).

  34. woohoo, it worked.

    thank you so much a r

    It’s amazing isn’t it, how simple it is, when you know what you’re doing. Or someone takes the time to decipher a fairly meaningless description into something useable.

    Thanks heaps again.

  35. @kezza2
    That would read as kind of a backhanded compliment for a r.
    Seeing as he wrote the extension you are currently using, and the description or lack thereof his as well 😛

  36. CTar1

    That’s no good. I’ve really been enjoying your much longer posts.
    You have so much knowledge.
    For a time there, I was totally lost with your shorthand.

    Hope you get well, soon, sooner, soonest.

    btw, I had no idea the Socratic solution was forced upon Rommel.
    That was pretty shocking.

  38. kezza. Tks.

    Rommel going like that, I guess, not so surprising when you’ve read bibs and bobs about him.

    His world essentially over, I think.

    Keep well.

  41. Zeh @ #685 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 11:27 pm

    @kezza2
    That would read as kind of a backhanded compliment for a r.
    Seeing as he wrote the extension you are currently using, and the description or lack thereof his as well 😛

    Oh, yeah, I see what you mean. I certainly didn’t mean it that way.

    Thankfully a r was kind enough to explain to me how to show what I was trying to express, without taking offence, I hope.

    Thanks again, a r

    PS. Back in the day, my younger son’s girlfriend was very patient with me, and showed me lots of shortcuts, and how to do stuff, on the computer, that my kids were too impatient to do. I miss her, and I miss her kindness.

  44. @kezza2 I didn’t doubt your intentions, just poking some fun (at A R as well).

    On another note, I’ve realised I must be in about the 10th percentile of a distribution of PB posters by age.
    Apparently, I nearly don’t know how to post a letter.

  46. Zeh @ #694 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 11:46 pm

    @kezza2 I didn’t doubt your intentions, just poking some fun (at A R as well).

    On another note, I’ve realised I must be in about the 10th percentile of a distribution of PB posters by age.
    Apparently, I nearly don’t know how to post a letter.

    Isn’t that the crappiest excuse you’ve ever heard?

    My kids, and grand-niece/nephews and great-grand-niece/nephews, certainly know how to post a letter. But maybe it’s just the country bumpkin in me/them.

    But I am confused by the tags: Are you a (shakingly asking) Millennial (close shakingly asking), by any chance?

    I think my kids are Gen X and Gen Y? Fked if I know.

  47. As we’re approaching the time of night where politics and polling discussion dies of a bit and other subjects get a run …

    For the last few days I’ve been digging on and off through a lot of US blogs that have discussion on US Navy operations and current going ons.

    To say there are some rumblings about US Navy ships having collisions at sea is an understatement. There have been 3 involving ‘Ardleigh Burke’ class Guided Missile Destroyers this year and 2 accidents involving cruisers ( the next size up). Some of these that haven’t involve deaths have little press interest.

    The ‘Ardleigh Burke’ destroyer class is the ‘BMW M3’ workhorse of the USN fleet. Well equipped and said to be easy to ‘drive’. They have around 60 of them in use dating from 1991 and despite several new replacement class ships being built they have around 10 more on order and it seems more to come.

    Every USN Lt Commander and Commander that hopes to get on as a ‘surface ship’ driver needs a ‘competent’ rating as a CO or Executive Officer on at least one posting on one of these.

    The ‘things’ going wrong episodes are fueling a lot of questions on the last 15 or so years officer training.

    Not a good thing in what is an increasingly uncertain world and any signs that this lack of attention to surrounds (“situational awareness”) has spread to the submarine fleet would be a real worry.

  48. @kezza2, Unfortunately I think I am classed as such, however I refuse to prescribe to the demographic. (I’m only 26)
    Perhaps being a country bumpkin from a poor family redeems me somewhat? However, I did notice a distinct shift in ‘attitude’ start with kids around 2 years my younger at school, and I’ve long since used that as an evidence that I’m not part of that generation (sub-generation?).

  50. kezza / Zeh

    Apparently, I nearly don’t know how to post a letter.

    Isn’t that the crappiest excuse you’ve ever heard?

    Around the average ‘quality’ of argument in the SSM/ME debate.

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