YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov’s latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10”

Comments Page 13 of 20
1 … 12 13 14 … 20

  1. [Simon Katich
    Barney
    I lost my sea legs a few years ago. I blame a dodgy steak sandwich on an evening fishing boat trip out from Darwin.    ]

    I thought you may have passed away, posting mid-sentence like that. 🙂

  10. I know if you play C & W recordings backwards your wife will return, your dog doesn’t die, you’ll get your job back at the local car plant and the crop in the field will be a bumper because the fire, drought and flood won’t happen..

  14. poroti:

    Really? Am devastated. Was so thinking my played backwards emojis would give you Welcome to the Jungle, so apt for PB some days. 😀

  17. Re the Cormann socialist thing. I’ve said before and will say again, this Turnbull govt has that feel of the dying days of the Howard govt to me. Who remembers Costello’s bizarre ‘reds economic conservatives under the bed’ speech at the campaign launch for the 2007 election?

    Mattias obviously channeling that kind of outburst.

  18. My brother in law passed away just before weekend, neatly two weeks shy of his 51st birthday. He was diagnosed with a terminal illness barely 8 weeks ago. Hearing about Fiona Richardson has amplified everything for me. Sigh……….

  20. Vic:

    I never know what to say in these circumstances, but apart from expressing sympathy for your family’s loss, can only reiterate that 50 is so damn young to lose your life. Condolences.

  21. victoria

    They say that time heals all wounds.
    Maybe so, but the loss is real and very painful.
    We offer condolences and accompanying emoji.

    ☮ ✌

  26. Thanks to all for the kind sentiments.

    our family is quite devastated. We feel like we have been cheated. My brother in law was so full and life and a vivacious character. I still can’t believe he is gone. Although having said that, he deteriorated so quickly during the past week, I couldn’t bare to see him suffer for a minute longer, and literally begged for his suffering to end.

  28. Bill Shorten:

    Today, Victoria and the Labor Party lost a remarkable, brave and inspirational woman.

    Fiona Richardson was a dear friend of mine and Chloe.

    For those of us privileged to know her, she was a steely-eyed legend.

    She was as tough as they make them, persevering through adversity and accomplishing so much, especially when it came to tackling the scourge of family violence.

    Her focus on family violence alone changed the lives of thousands of Victorians for the better.

    She was a fighter until the end, strong and resilient.

    This is a terrible shock – I thought we had more time. Chloe and I will miss Fiona immensely.

    We ask Victorians to keep Stephen and their children in their hearts.

  29. Steve777

    Captain James Cook commanded the first known successful expedition by Europeans to the East coast of mainland Australia.

    The mahogany ship is a crock. As a kid my brother and I used to mess with the archeological surveys by sticking bits of metal in the sand to confuse the scientifically minded. it’s all shit.

  31. Vic:

    If he was begging for his life to end because he was suffering, it sounds like it was small mercies he passed.

    Very sad times nevertheless for you and your family.

  32. victoria @ #626 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 9:42 pm

    Thanks to all for the kind sentiments.

    our family is quite devastated. We feel like we have been cheated. My brother in law was so full and life and a vivacious character. I still can’t believe he is gone. Although having said that, he deteriorated so quickly during the past week, I couldn’t bare to see him suffer for a minute longer, and literally begged for his suffering to end.

    May he rest in peace, victoria.

  35. Barney, of course Mathias knows what Socialism is. It’s where you don’t beat up on the poor and weak and don’t shovel money at your rich mates and don’t sell public assets off to those same rich mates at firesale prices so they can gouge monopoly rents.

    Frightful stuff.

  41. Oh victoria!
    It must be an immense wrench for the whole family to be going through. My heart goes out to you. Whenever someone good goes so young, I think to myself, ‘why can’t it be Murdoch or Trump or some old bastard like that instead?’

    But only the good die young.

  44. CTar:

    Used to being out there with my music tastes. Esp among my age demographic peers who consider my music choices old fogey music.

Comments Page 13 of 20
1 … 12 13 14 … 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *