Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition takes a hit in the latest voting intention reading from Essential Research, which also records solid support for anything on same-sex marriage other than inaction.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has Labor’s lead bouncing back to 54-46, after diminishing over recent weeks to 52-48 a week ago. The changes on the primary vote are rather striking by the standards of Essential’s fortnight rolling average, with Labor up three to 39% and the Coalition down two to a meagre 34% (UPDATE: Make that down one to 37% – that didn’t include the Nationals). The Greens are down a point to 9% and One Nation are steady on 8%. Essential’s monthly leadership ratings record Malcolm Turnbull up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 46%, with Bill Shorten down one to 35% and down two to 42%, and Turnbull leading 41-27 to prime minister, unchanged on a month ago.

Other results related by The Guardian include 43% approval for a postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage, with 38% disapproving; 43% support for a parliamentary conscience vote, with 31% disapproving; 46% favouring a plebiscite in conjunction with the next election, with 34% disapproving; and 22% in favour of delaying a decision until after the next election, with 55% opposed. Forty-one per cent approved of Labor’s propose to impose a 30% tax rate on distributions from discretionary trusts, with 30% opposed. On Labor’s plans to overhaul the Fair Work Act, 39% rated that the existing system favoured employers compared with 12% for employees, and 29% who believed the interests of the two were balanced.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. For the benefit of bemused…
    ..contd…

    This is about achieving equality before the law, especially in criminal jurisdictions, as between corporations and other legal persons, including mere mortals and other citizens…

    briefly
    bemused
    Yes, you can’t gaol a corporation.

    I’m going to try to change that in a certain sense. A corporate entity cannot be imprisoned but its assets can certainly be detained, its income requisitioned and the freedom to trade its securities can be suspended. That is a financial equivalent to imprisonment. I think it might catch on.

    briefly
    Quaintly, it’s possible to arrest a ship. It should be possible to sequester a corporation.

    bemused

    Corporations ceased being under state decades ago and were brought under Commonwealth law. The Corporations Act 2001. Here http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ca2001172/

    This Act is very extensive and mainly relates to the administration of companies and the operation of markets. It does not exempt corporations from State laws. Corporations have the status of legal persons and are subject to State laws like anyone else. So, for example, when Grocon was fined in relation to the deaths caused by the collapse of a wall in Melbourne, the law that applied was a Victorian law, and the court was a Victorian court:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-21/grocon-fined-250000-over-fatal-wall-collapse/5908292

    Have a look at CHAPTER 2D–Officers and employees for a start and inform yourself as to the duties of Directors and others and penalties that apply.

    And of course if individuals within a corporation commit a criminal offence they should be prosecuted under state or federal laws as appropriate.

    The trouble is that very few such charges are ever laid because of the evidentiary standards in criminal trials. This means, in fact, the laws are frequently without any practical effect in the case of corporations.

    I think this should be changed. To do so will require reform of a range of laws. The Law Reform Commission should be tasked with proposing reforms that will deliver effective equality before the law with respect to corporations and other legal persons.

  2. Greensborough Growler,

    As a local, you will recognise where GHD in June 2017 showed the preliminary geotechnical testing locations in the linked map – I sent this link to my son the other day who drives between Broadmeadows and Boronia twice a day with a ‘rat run’ between the M80 and Boronia Road.

    http://northeastlink.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/122623/31-35006_000_ProposedBoreholeLocations.pdf

    Having lived north of Melbourne for ten years and commuted through this area – bring on the North East Link I say – shame it will be another toll road.

    On the other hand the heavy rail extension to Mernda and the upgrades to the Hurstbridge line are also good to see though they don’t suit a ‘radial’ work commute.

  5. GG

    My impression is that usually, at this stage of the cycle, we have Greens posters talking excitedly of polls showing 15-18% support and making wild predictions of winning all sorts of Lower House seats off the back of those figures. Obviously they achieve much lower results on polling day.

    If this pattern is followed this time around (note the ‘if’ word, folks), then the Greens will drop well below 10% at the next election.

    So the question is whether they’ve stagnated or whether they’re presently on an artificial high.

  6. @ zoomster – is that not just because the Pollsters that used to bias heavily towards the Greens have shut up shop? Such as Roy Morgan.

    Did Newspoll/Essential systemically over estimate The Greens?

  7. booleanbach @ #243 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 11:18 am

    The Greens are not doomed, but they seem to be stagnant. Their % of the vote and elected members has reached horizontal and they do not seem to be making any headway against any of the other parties.
    I personally would like to see them reach a bit higher. (preferably at the expense of the LNP)

    That the Greens are losing votes when issues like global warming and gay marriage are front and centre of the political agenda tells you that people no longer believe they have any answers to offer, even for what should be their core ideological issues.

    The Greens will fade away unless they develop some leadership and backbone. Neither of which looks very likely.

  8. TallebudgeraLurker @ #251 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 11:26 am

    Greensborough Growler,

    As a local, you will recognise where GHD in June 2017 showed the preliminary geotechnical testing locations in the linked map – I sent this link to my son the other day who drives between Broadmeadows and Boronia twice a day with a ‘rat run’ between the M80 and Boronia Road.

    http://northeastlink.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/122623/31-35006_000_ProposedBoreholeLocations.pdf

    Having lived north of Melbourne for ten years and commuted through this area – bring on the North East Link I say – shame it will be another toll road.

    On the other hand the heavy rail extension to Mernda and the upgrades to the Hurstbridge line are also good to see though they don’t suit a ‘radial’ work commute.

    thanks for that.

  9. zoomster @ #254 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 11:27 am

    GG

    My impression is that usually, at this stage of the cycle, we have Greens posters talking excitedly of polls showing 15-18% support and making wild predictions of winning all sorts of Lower House seats off the back of those figures. Obviously they achieve much lower results on polling day.

    If this pattern is followed this time around (note the ‘if’ word, folks), then the Greens will drop well below 10% at the next election.

    So the question is whether they’ve stagnated or whether they’re presently on an artificial high.

    Or, the worst possible option that there’s nothing much to see here!

  11. The other thing with tte Greens vote being affected by is the rise and rise of One nation. Voters now seem to believe they have an alternative party to park their protest vote with. this may be what’s showing up in the polls atm.

  13. samanthamaiden: BREAKING: if Senate REJECTS plebiscite POSTAL mailout starts 12 Sept. ballots in by Nov 7 @SkyNewsAust.If senate passes Nov 25 @SkyNewsAust

  15. So the govt is giving less than a month for people to update their address at the AEC.

    Because who wants young people voting?

  17. So given their will certainly be a HC challenge to the postal plebiscite which will almost certainly delay things at least a month (and more likely more) we’re looking at next year for the actual Parliamentary vote.

  18. If the postal plebiscite has not been sanctioned by the Parliament, it’s hard to see how the the Government can spend the money or make it compulsory.

  20. GG
    They can’t make it Compulsory, without legislation, that’s not debatable. They argue they can hold a postal plebiscite without legislation though it raises the question of where the funds will come from without legislation (unless the Coalition plans to pay out of their own pockets) which is why there will be a challenge.

  23. Elaugaufein @ #270 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 11:53 am

    GG
    They can’t make it Compulsory, without legislation, that’s not debatable. They argue they can hold a postal plebiscite without legislation though it raises the question of where the funds will come from without legislation (unless the Coalition plans to pay out of their own pockets) which is why there will be a challenge.

    At least a poll by a reputable Pollster would have an appropriate sample.

    This one will end up being the same as one of those self selecting Newspaper Polls.

  24. gabriellechan: Cormann to use special finance allocation to fund plebiscite? via @murpharoo #politicslive theguardian.com/australia-news…

    Oh oh i think they are in trouble if my memory serves from Chaplains case.

  25. Turnbull is taking a very big risk.

    By claiming that they have legal advice indicating the postal plebiscite could work, he is trying to convince NXT and Hinch to support the compulsory plebiscite.

    But what happens if they call his bluff?

    Does he release the napkin his legal advice is on and have the courts destroy it? (throw Brandis under a bus)

    Does he say the postal plebiscite is a bad idea and say they’ll try in the senate again? (i.e. what Tony Abbott wanted).

    Does he admit that the existence of the legal advice was an alternative fact?

  27. From the guardian :
    “The finance minister, Mathias Cormann, said the process was in accordance with the precedent set in the Whitlam era to use the finance minister’s allocation for appropriations.

    Which sounds like he will use it to fund the postal plebiscite.”

  28. I think the times do not well suit the Gs. Subscriptions to pop-politics are rising on the right, not on the left. Interestingly, ON and others are using exactly the same tactics to draw support from the LNP as the Gs used contra Labor. These tactics will also peter out….as has occurred with the Gs.

  29. This whole thing is a farce, aimed at delaying as long as possible, to satisfy the conservative wing nuts and nothing more. No part of this even makes a sound attempt at looking legitimate.

  35. srpeatling: Can we pause to reflect on a Coalition govt using the historical example of the Whitlam govt to justify its actions?

  43. Mr. M.B. Turnbull has just informed us courtesy of ABC TV that Mr. Bill Shorten is responsible for the governments actions regarding Marriage Equality.

    How Bill can live with himself is beyond me.

    Shame Bill, shame ❗ 😈

    I see that BK has just posted similar at 12:12

  48. kemal_atlay: So nice that Turnbull’s acting smug & laughing at questions about whether people should have say on whether I can get married. So funny hey

  50. hughriminton: “Only one more, please..!” PM begs for a news conference on #SSM to end. #auspol pic.twitter.com/2bf62nblMw

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