Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Some better numbers for the Prime Minister from Essential Research, on both voting intention and preferred Liberal leader.

As reported by The Guardian, the Coalition has picked up a point on Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average for the second week in a row, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 36%, Labor is down one to 36%, One Nation is up a point to 11% and the Greens are steady on 10% (UPDATE: No, actually it’s the Coalition steady on 38% and One Nation up one to 8% – the rest is okay). Further:

• On the question of who would be best to lead the Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull recorded 25%, up five since March; Julie Bishop 20%, down three; Tony Abbott 10%, unchanged; and 13% chose an unspecified “someone else” option. For Labor, Bill Shorten was on 20%, down one; Tanya Plibersek 13%, unchanged; Anthony Albanese 13%, up two; with someone else on 13%.

• Fifty-two per cent were of the view that economic inequality was worsening, with 26% saying it was stable and only 12% concurring with Scott Morrison’s suggestion that it was diminishing. No doubt relatedly, 82% supported forcing multinational companies to pay a minimum tax rate on their Australian earnings; 61% favoured a higher top-tier income tax rate; 71% a “Buffett rule” to force the wealthy to pay a minimum 30% tax rate; and 86% measures to inhibit the wealthy from minimising tax payments by sending funds offshore.

• Fifty-eight per cent expressed support for four-year terms, with only 24% opposed.

Another poll worth noting is a rare effort on voting intention in the Australian Capital Territory, conducted by ReachTEL for Anglicare and the Canberra Gambling Reform Alliance, which records Labor on 36.4% (down 2.0% since the 2016 election), the Liberals on 38.8% (up 2.1%) and the Greens on 13.3% (up 3.0%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,413 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 29
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  1. [ItzaDream
    Barney in Go Dau @ #96 Tuesday, August 1st, 2017 – 9:37 am

    This is something I would like to see more of, police going after the enablers within organisations whose actions and inactions facilitated ongoing abuse and/or the avoidance of detection/apprehension by police.

    Worth noting too BiGD that this was driven by the dead boy’s mother

    Is this a reflection of authorities having an aversion to go after these organisations?

    Absolutely. The Newcastle experience of ‘blind reporting’ for example.

    NSW Police, the Catholic Church and other institutions worked together for years under informal agreements that directly conflicted with laws on reporting child sexual abuse, a Police Integrity Commission report has found.]

    This was also highlighted in some of the RC case studies in Victoria.

  2. Hmmm. Is anyone else seeing posts appear in apparently random order? Sometimes I see a response to a post before I see the post itself. But if you refresh the page they turn up in the correct order.

  4. Player One @ #102 Tuesday, August 1st, 2017 – 10:03 am

    Hmmm. Is anyone else seeing posts appear in apparently random order? Sometimes I see a response to a post before I see the post itself. But if you refresh the page they turn up in the correct order.

    Yes, but C+ generally resolves this question. Happens all the time on iphone or ipad.

  5. Assuming pairing holds SSM has an easier time in the Senate than the House. NXT, Greens,Hinch,Leyjonhelm are all yes. Rest of Crossbench is probably no.

    Senate is 74 currently but the 2 missing Greens are paired. That gives 38/36. Which means you can even afford no Liberals and 1 Labor crossing the floor.

    The House is the hard part. Katter is a no + The Government has a 1 seat majority. That’s 76/ 73 against (due to Speaker not voting and it’s unlikely this will be a tie though that may become an issue if an odd number of people abstain for some reason in which case you need to add 1 to the following numbers). That means you need 2 Coalition members to cross the floor + 1 for any ALP member who crosses the floor the other way.

    (If people want to abstain or be “absent” that’s effectively splitting their vote 50/50).

    Side Question: Was there no Cartoon Corner today or are the gerbils simply not showing it to me ?

  7. Ides of March
    P1

    Yes. I have posts appearing in a weird order and sometimes they disappear

    It must be even more frustrating for people like A R and Musrum who could fix the site up in a few hours.

  9. I will finally believe the ABC is not sexist ..or biased against the ALP ..when they commission a six-part situation comedy called: “At Home with Malcolm” ..and showing Truffles and Lucy having sex beneath an Aussie flag..

  10. Elaugaufein,
    On my Notebook (Firefox on Windows 7), BK’s cartoons section came before the split up sections i.e. sections 2 and 2a etc, but after Section 1

  12. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/01/sydney-counter-terrorism-raids-alleged-plane-plot-was-well-along-us-officials-say

    [The Australian National University criminologist Clarke Jones said the federal government needed to go “back to basics” and invest in prevention measures.

    “It’s been full-steam ahead in relation to security, legislation, police and intelligence, all at the expense of community resilience and building up protective mechanisms within vulnerable communities,” he said.]

  13. lizzie
    CTar1

    On sleepless nights, PB will be lost to me

    That’s a bummer. I find the 11 pm to dawn shift one of the most entertaining!

  14. Is Labor still allowing a conscience vote on SSM? If not then all Labor MPs will have to vote in support, otherwise be absent for whatever reason.

  15. On ME everyone seems to be assuming that Labor is in full support, however members are entitled to a “conscience” vote at the moment.

    Have any Labor members declared themselves opposed to ME?

  16. lizzie

    Turnbull asked about neg polling in WA. “I never had a warmer reception.” Looks at the floor. Hiding true emotions.

    The feathers are ready but the tar is still being heated?

  17. Barney:

    I thought SSM was now Labor policy and therefore MPs are bound to abide by it, but if the party is permitting a conscience vote on the issue then I’m sure there will be MPs who vote against it.

  18. CTar1

    Laughs (I wish we had the old emojis back)

    Trouble is, Mal is a do-nothing disaster but the alternatives are even worse.

  19. I believe the current term is a conscience vote for Labor. The next term is binding yes. I think there is 5 or 6 labor members either opposed or have not stated an opinion. I can not put any names down yet.

  20. [confessions
    Is Labor still allowing a conscience vote on SSM? If not then all Labor MPs will have to vote in support, otherwise be absent for whatever reason.    ]

    That’s my understanding.

    The full policy support doesn’t kick in until after the next election.

  22. The ALP still allows a conscience vote. They are bound to vote for SSM after this Parliament though.

    There’s 2 ALP member in the House and 3 in the Senate who are probable nos on the motion. But they might vote yes to bring on the vote.

    And there may be more who just haven’t made public statements.

  24. [Peter Hannam‏Verified account @p_hannam · 30m30 minutes ago

    .@BOM_au replies to latest claims by botanist @JennMarohasy in (where else?) @australian that it’s manipulating data to boost climate change pic.twitter.com/KGbVSIKCHF ]

    BOM statement:
    :large

  29. markjs @ #109 Tuesday, August 1st, 2017 – 10:17 am

    I will finally believe the ABC is not sexist ..or biased against the ALP ..when they commission a six-part situation comedy called: “At Home with Malcolm” ..and showing Truffles and Lucy having sex beneath an Aussie flag..

    That was about the lowest point in ABC ‘comedy’ ever, and indicative of the media generated national mood.

    Speaking of comedy, listeners to AM had to endure about 10 minutes of Ms Cash this morning. By the end, even Sabra Lane appeared to have had enough.
    Still they did have another government minister on later in the show for balance.

  31. More Evidence Of Cover-Up As Trump Personally Wrote Don Jr.’s False Statement On Russia Meeting

    The new development “adds to a series of actions that Trump has taken that some advisers fear could place him and some members of his inner circle in legal jeopardy.”

    A new story in The Washington Post on Monday spells more trouble for Donald Trump and the White House as the newspaper reports that the president personally crafted a false statement defending his son’s private meeting with a Russian lawyer during the 2016 campaign.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/31/evidence-cover-up-trump-personally-wrote-false-statement-don-jr-s-russia-meeting.html

  32. Yeah, crossing the floor is bad for your career unless you’re doing it with effective approval like Christensen (is only crossing when it doesn’t matter).

  34. Jeez threatening to nobble the career of a gay MP over a vote on SSM is chutzpah in the extreme! If I was Wilson I’d do it just to give them the middle finger.

  37. adrian @ #129 Tuesday, August 1st, 2017 – 10:45 am

    markjs @ #109 Tuesday, August 1st, 2017 – 10:17 am

    I will finally believe the ABC is not sexist ..or biased against the ALP ..when they commission a six-part situation comedy called: “At Home with Malcolm” ..and showing Truffles and Lucy having sex beneath an Aussie flag..

    That was about the lowest point in ABC ‘comedy’ ever, and indicative of the media generated national mood.

    Speaking of comedy, listeners to AM had to endure about 10 minutes of Ms Cash this morning. By the end, even Sabra Lane appeared to have had enough.
    Still they did have another government minister on later in the show for balance.

    Do you think appearances by the Western Hair Helmeted Screecher favour the Libs?

  38. On SSM, the Labor members of parliament should all vote as a block to allow a vote on the floor of the house, vote to pass it, then watch the Libs totally implode and then Labor will be the next government in three months time.

  40. Looking at Goldstein, I doubt the electorate would approve of rolling on that. So it’d just be a branch stacking competition.

  41. lizzie @ #135 Tuesday, August 1st, 2017 – 10:48 am

    adrian

    Chuckle. What was Madam Cash’s subject?

    The wonderfully wonderful ‘paid’ intern program that had thus far created 200 jobs.

    Unfortunately Sabra Lane had neither the wit nor gumption to ask what that came out as the cost per job.

    They then got on to another topic over the day, gay marriage maybe. To which Cash started blaming Bill Shorten. At least Sabra did say, ‘well you are the government…’.

  42. [Ides of March
    I think I can guess which Labor members are opposed. Dont really want to name and shame.    ]

    If they’ve publicly declared their position there should be no problem naming them, otherwise it’s just suspicion.

  44. Krugman wonders who ate Republicans’ brains and traces the rot back 40 years ago.

    A key moment came in the 1970s, when Irving Kristol, the godfather of neoconservatism, embraced supply-side economics — the claim, refuted by all available evidence and experience, that tax cuts pay for themselves by boosting economic growth. Writing years later, he actually boasted about valuing political expediency over intellectual integrity: “I was not certain of its economic merits but quickly saw its political possibilities.” In another essay, he cheerfully conceded to having had a “cavalier attitude toward the budget deficit,” because it was all about creating a Republican majority — so “political effectiveness was the priority, not the accounting deficiencies of government.”

    The problem is that once you accept the principle that it’s O.K. to lie if it helps you win elections, it gets ever harder to limit the extent of the lying — or even to remember what it’s like to seek the truth.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/31/opinion/republicans-trumpcare-obamacare-lies.html?em_pos=small&emc=edit_ty_20170731&nl=opinion-today&nl_art=1&nlid=80183539&ref=headline&te=1

  45. I am running Firefox on Windows 8.1 with the C+ add-on.
    I just noticed it has the Block option enabled.
    I won’t be using it of course, as I am not one of those sooks who can’t handle differing opinions.
    It would be good if that add-on would indicate just who is using it.

  46. A Republican Ex-Congressman Just Told Robert Reich His Party’s Big Trump Impeachment Secret

    Me: Yeah, but that still doesn’t tell me what Republicans are planning to do about it.
    Him: Look. How long do you think it will be before everyone in Washington knows he’s flipping out? I don’t mean just weird. I mean really off his rocker.
    Him: It will be obvious to everyone that he’s got to go. That’s where the twenty-fifth amendment really does comes in.
    Me: So you think…
    Him: Who knows? But he’s losing it fast. My betting is he’s out of office before the midterms. And Pence is president.

    http://washingtonjournal.com/2017/07/31/republican-congressman-just-told-robert-reich-partys-big-trump-impeachment-secret/

  47. Ratsak:

    It’s probably crazy but I’m going to hold out hope for Tim Wilson to man up and do the right thing instead of be cowed by the Lib faceless men.

  48. It’s crazy Fess. This is the guy who at the IPA railed against the HRC. Then Brandis comes along offering $300k + – Bingo “Freedom Boy” to the rescue. He’s in it for himself.

  49. Player One @ #102 Tuesday, August 1st, 2017 – 10:03 am

    Hmmm. Is anyone else seeing posts appear in apparently random order? Sometimes I see a response to a post before I see the post itself. But if you refresh the page they turn up in the correct order.

    Are you running with the ‘Recent Comments First’ option disabled? Viewing in chronological order may be quirky, particularly if there’s the occasional moderation happening in the background.

    I haven’t noticed any out-of-order content when viewing recent-first.

    bemused @ #145 Tuesday, August 1st, 2017 – 10:58 am

    It would be good if that add-on would indicate just who is using it.

    I think the best way to use the ‘Block’ feature is either not at all, or quietly. Advertising who is blocking whom seems very self-defeating.

Comments are closed.

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