Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Labor in WA

As cabinet assembles in Western Australia, more evidence that the state looms as a big problem for the Turnbull government.

A quiet week looms on the opinion poll front, but Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper entered the breach yesterday with a WA-only poll of federal voting intention conducted by Galaxy, tailored to coincide with cabinet’s visit to the state this week. The results delivered the paper the hard-hitting headline it was presumably angling for, recording Labor with a 52-48 two-party lead that amounts to a 6% swing compared with last year’s election. The primary vote results were Coalition 39% (down from 48.7%), Labor 37% (up from 32.4%) and Greens 11% (down from 12.1%), with One Nation on 5%. Malcolm Turnbull nonetheless recorded a 43-33 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister. The poll also found 59% saying they would vote yes at a same-sex marrige plebiscite, compared with 32% for no; and 61% saying they did not trust the government to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share”, with 21% saying they did. It was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 850.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Labor in WA”

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  1. I am now on an iPad. Here the site behaves completely differently. Gone are the post numbers and ‘reply’ key. Gone is the option to block (not that I want it). On the other hand, the ‘edit’ option is back.

  2. Matt

    Thanks for that – I thought that is what you meant. Cheers. Initially I thought you were taking that story as legit. My bad.

  3. lizzie @ #535 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 7:04 pm

    C@t

    I thought he was admired by his fans as a deep thinker. (Heavy sarcasm here)

    Oh he thinks deeply all right. For all the wrong reasons. He is quite adept at pushing the agenda of the Conservative Capitalist Plutocrat Christian Right. Murdoch’s agenda.

    The Borgias would have approved of the useful fool.

  4. [Katrina Hodgkinson, a NSW Nat in the seat of Cootamundra has quit the sinking NSW government, leading to a by election.]

    No doubt Sussex Street, in their infinite wisdom, will be using their preferences to get another gun nut into Parliament.

  5. itsthevibe @ #555 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 7:38 pm

    [Katrina Hodgkinson, a NSW Nat in the seat of Cootamundra has quit the sinking NSW government, leading to a by election.]

    No doubt Sussex Street, in their infinite wisdom, will be using their preferences to get another gun nut into Parliament.

    Are you trying to say another National wouldn’t be a gun nut too!?!

  6. sprocket:

    Seriously? He just resigned? Surely there was some impending scandal threatening to sweep him up.

    Mikeh:

    Recidivist views about the White Australia policy almost always forget that indigenous Australians were swept up in it too under ‘assimilationist’ approaches.

  7. Thinking of Tony Abbott, it is hard to envisage the sort of society he would want. He is accused of wanting to go back to the 1950s, and socially, that could well be right. That includes White Australia, the subordinate role of and lower pay for women, criminalisation of homosexuality, the near absence of non-Christian religions just to name a few. Many changes since then were inevitable, but had he been old enough, he’d have fought them all the way.

    But enonomically? The 50s were a time of strong unions, increasing worker rights, protections and benefits and the growth of the wage share of the economy. Abbott seems to have been completely turned to the IPA world view in the last decade or so. Before then, he didn’t seem to be economically hard-line. Even now, he seems to be pretty much an economic illiterate. But he would not would want to return to the 50s economically. It would have to be an earlier time. The 30s? Pre-Federation?

  8. daretotread

    The Washington Post is now just another Murdoch rag I think. Was it not sold to him 5 or so years ago.

    Nah, the ‘Amazon’ guy owns it. As big a plutocrat as Rupes and even harder on the ‘peasants’ .

  9. “Tony Abbott‏Verified account @TonyAbbottMHR · 7h7 hours ago
    Sure we can make the country more equal but only by making it less prosperous. Get real, @billshortenmp]”

    Do the depths of this mans stupidity know no bounds??

  10. 😆 Had a google of Bezos .

    In 2014, he was ranked the best CEO in the world by Harvard Business Review……….Bezos was named World’s Worst Boss by the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC), at their World Congress, in May 2014

  11. Tony Abbott‏Verified account @TonyAbbottMHR · 7h7 hours ago
    Sure we can make the country more equal but only by making it less prosperous.

    You gotta love the way the guy states as verities things which can be proven quite easily to be false. Takes a lot of chutzpah. It’s his foremost skill. It’s what got him to be Prime Minister.

    However, Tony Abbott also has an unerring ability to find the banana peel on the sidewalk of political life and slip on it and come a gutzer. As sure as night follows day.

  12. “Tony Abbott‏Verified account @TonyAbbottMHR · 7h7 hours ago
    Sure we can make the country more equal but only by making it less prosperous. Get real, @billshortenmp”

    Give it up Tony. That argument is long past its use by date.

  13. Sam Dastyari on Australian Story .. to me, he comes across as one of the least trustworthy politicians imaginable and yet I can’t help liking him.

  14. *Thinks to myself* “Hmm. Haven’t visited Poll Bludger, wonder if anything’s changed vis a vis Aussie Politics since I lef…”

    *Takes 1 look at the new comment system*

    Oh Jesus Christ Almighty…

  15. The SMH and Telecrap are reporting that the Great Cricket War is close to resolution.

    We shall see. These things always have last minute hitches and go down to the wire.

  16. Sprocket – Don’t tell Bernard Keane. He will never, ever, ever forgive NSW Labor for not saving his precious greyhounds. He’d shoot the lot if he could.

  17. The terrorist media dept ( the Australian Federal Government) is doing a terrific job. They had the airports in mess over a bunch of people that where arrested fro having an alleged bomb. Arrested; compete failure and still all out promotion of their terror agenda.

    Full marks to the terrorist media unit for successful promotion of the agenda.

  18. If you lot read anything other than MSN crap I might take note of things you say.

    William
    your comment was pretty ill informed. Yes I will call you out on it. Listen to an interview with James Clapper. He said NK is terrified of the USA. Does not matter if they are justified or not (mind you they were carpet bombed in the 50s). If a country rightly or wrongly believes that another is going to invade them then the ONLY way to resolve the problem peacefully is for the stronger nation to show restraint and patience and convince the smaller one it means them no harm.

    This is bloody obvious. I should not have to point this our to supposedly rational people. The trouble is that North Korea sees Afghanistan, Serbia, Iraq and Libya, all invaded. Naturally they are SH*t scarred of the USA. so yes the current NK conflict IS the fault of the US. Sure it is largely Gen MacArthur and Eisenhower but all the same it IS the original fault of the USA and the years that followed have seen very little effort to resolve the matter.

    Take a look at a MAP people. How far is North Korea from Vladivostok and Beijing. A very, very, very short distance. so i call it out. If Russia or China thinks the US is going to put a single marine on NK soil let alone an airbase or a THAAD, they will singly or together intervene to prevent it. They would be mind numbing idiots if they did NOT intervene.

    So I call it again. If the US does NOT back off then there will be action taken by Russia and China. Just what that will be is unclear, although invasion is the most likely. A face saving option would be better ie keeping Kim in position but taking over the nukes. However I will also say that whatever I expect or you or the USA military probably will not happen since Russia is the master of surprise. China has not been tested.

  19. <blockquote)Darn (Block)
    Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 8:01 pm
    Comment #563
    Just heard that the cricket dispute seems to be over.

    Well that was short lived. Cricket Australia is now saying it’s not over.

  20. You wouldn’t read about it but the problem with the Cricket resolution is now revolving around who gets the credit for resolving it!!!

  21. I dont think Labor should bother with a candidate for Cootamundra. Let the Shooters Fishers and Farmers have it. Labor might only vote split due to no compulsory preferencing. 20% margin is too high and Coota is not friendly.

  22. From the Daily TurdBurgler

    “CRICKET’S uncivil war is over.

    After months of rage and backbiting, Cricket Australia chief executive James Sutherland and his Australian Cricketers Association counterpart Alistair Nicholson have agreed on all key terms and are set to announce at a joint press conference as early as Tuesday that at long last, a pay deal has been reached.

    There is peace in our times.

    Only a monumental last-minute spanner in the works could derail a final agreement being signed off now after both parties were last night working feverishly on finalising the very last details and aiming for a declaration to be made today, or at the latest tomorrow, in Melbourne.”

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/cricket/bangladesh-tour-ashes-optimism-high-as-bitter-pay-dispute-between-ca-and-aca-moves-closer-to-resolution/news-story/2e8d1e6251f23ea8193011e69cd00227?utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_source=DailyTelegraph&utm_medium=Twitter

  23. Ides of March @ #579 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 8:34 pm

    I dont think Labor should bother with a candidate for Cootamundra. Let the Shooters Fishers and Farmers have it. Labor might only vote split due to no compulsory preferencing. 20% margin is too high and Coota is not friendly.

    Labor should always contest every election.
    It gives their supporters a chance to vote Labor and not drift off to Greens or other whackos.
    It forces the other side to spend disproportionately.
    It gives your team a chance to campaign, recruit and build the team.

  24. Bemused:

    SFF has a better shot (or a strong independent). If SFF win, it one more seat the NATs (and coalition) has to fight in next time around or try to pick up a seat elsewhere. Coota unless its radically redrawn, will not be won by Labor. Plus save money. SFF will do another Orange and truckload in their supporters.

    Labor would be better served by putting effort in to get Foley better trained or for a better leader in NSW. Foley is mr nowhere. David Shoebridge gets into more news packages than him, and that must be embarrassing becauses he an upper house Greens MLC.

  25. Looking at the booth results for Cootamundra inside the federal seat Riverina at the 2016 Election:

    Cootamundra Public School -> 58-42 to Nationals
    Cootamundra PPVC -> 60-40 to Nationals
    Cootamundra West -> 58-42 to Nationals

  26. Ides of March @ #587 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 8:48 pm

    Bemused:

    SFF has a better shot (or a strong independent). If SFF win, it one more seat the NATs (and coalition) has to fight in next time around or try to pick up a seat elsewhere. Coota unless its radically redrawn, will not be won by Labor. Plus save money. SFF will do another Orange and truckload in their supporters.

    Labor would be better served by putting effort in to get Foley better trained or for a better leader in NSW. Foley is mr nowhere. David Shoebridge gets into more news packages than him, and that must be embarrassing becauses he an upper house Greens MLC.

    Labor is good at cheap campaigns using its superior people resources. The other side mainly have money which they are then forced to spend.
    You ignore the cogent reasons I stated.
    Your stuff about Foley is a separate issue and can be addressed as such.

  27. Player

    I am guessing that Xi and Putin DID have just such a chat a month ago. It is so blindingly obvious.

    The problem is of course that Mr Kim may object and he as a quite a large army. I guess the key would be for Russia and China to convince Mr Kim that it is his best option.

    Mr K will need to consider just how likely it is for the USA to actually strike him first and even nuke him to bits.

    If the US does strike first with conventional weapons how does Kim respond. Does he attack S Korea or US bases in Japan or lob a Nuke on the US west coast. he would be wisest to seek protection from his two big neighbours.

  28. Abbott and his supporters probably think that was a killer tweet.

    Having said that, I hope – at a time of their choosing, Labor will announce a ‘growth’ orientated policy.
    An example might be renewables – which is relatively labour intensive, and located in the regions.
    That with the tax, health, education and social policies would make a nice complete set.

    Another example might be around infrastructure.

    regarding Abbott and the sort of 50’s style economy he might want, at one stage he was a fellow traveller with the DLP – which would suit a 50s economy perfectly.

  29. daretotread @ #596 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 8:58 pm

    Player

    I am guessing that Xi and Putin DID have just such a chat a month ago. It is so blindingly obvious.

    The problem is of course that Mr Kim may object and he as a quite a large army. I guess the key would be for Russia and China to convince Mr Kim that it is his best option.

    Mr K will need to consider just how likely it is for the USA to actually strike him first and even nuke him to bits.

    If the US does strike first with conventional weapons how does Kim respond. Does he attack S Korea or US bases in Japan or lob a Nuke on the US west coast. he would be wisest to seek protection from his two big neighbours.

    The quality of Mr Kim’s large army is open to question.
    It only has supplies to fight for about 2 or 3 weeks.

  30. Bemused;

    Labor supporters are light on the ground in Coota. Wont be cheap to bus them in for a piddly byelection. It will be a (thanks fess) woftam. Your reasons are cogent in a seat with a margin half that of Coota. Let SFF spend the money to fight the NATS.

  31. Just what Australians need there will be more bullshit at airports than terrorists for years to come:

    ‘The men detained in counter-terrorism raids on the weekend may have already made an attempt to smuggle their homemade bomb onto an international flight prior to raids, law enforcement officials have told 7.30’.

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