A quiet week looms on the opinion poll front, but Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper entered the breach yesterday with a WA-only poll of federal voting intention conducted by Galaxy, tailored to coincide with cabinet’s visit to the state this week. The results delivered the paper the hard-hitting headline it was presumably angling for, recording Labor with a 52-48 two-party lead that amounts to a 6% swing compared with last year’s election. The primary vote results were Coalition 39% (down from 48.7%), Labor 37% (up from 32.4%) and Greens 11% (down from 12.1%), with One Nation on 5%. Malcolm Turnbull nonetheless recorded a 43-33 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister. The poll also found 59% saying they would vote yes at a same-sex marrige plebiscite, compared with 32% for no; and 61% saying they did not trust the government to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share”, with 21% saying they did. It was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 850.
John Reddy:
Mike Seccombe in the Saturday Paper said the DLP served as a function to drag more socially conservative inclined catholics away from Labor and to the Libs. I think thats the most apt short description.
Just enough bullshit to hide from Dutton’s Super Department.
Some more Cootamundra booths(?):
Harden -> 58-42 to Nationals
Gundagai -> 61-39 to Labor
Junee -> 62-38 to Nationals
Coolamon -> 74-26 to Nationals
Temora -> 74-26 to Nationals
Temora West -> 75-25 to Nationals
Young -> 65-35 to Nationals
Young North -> 62-38 to Nationals
Young PPVC -> 69-31 to Nationals
Young South -> 64-36 to Nationals
Cowra -> 59-41 to Nationals
Cowra North -> 58-42 to Nationals
Cowra PPVC -> 65-35 to Nationals
Cowra West -> 69-31 to Nationals
West Wyalong -> 81-19 to Nationals
BLV Riverina PPVC -> 55-45 to Nationals
Ides of March @ #599 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 9:01 pm
Well I am in Victoria and helped out in the WA election on a phone bank.
I have also campaigned in country by-elections in Victoria. Labor people will do that.
It is not hard to cause the Nats quite a bit of distraction and angst.
Even just running a candidate will discombobulate them.
Labor running a candidate in Coota will not discombobulate the NATs. They’d prefer that to happen and vote split. Preferencing is not compulsory in NSW.
daretotread @ #596 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 8:58 pm
Don’t be ridiculous. “Mr K” couldn’t put a nuke on the US west coast if the US coastguard offered to carry it for him.
Is it so hard a programming task that when you click on a link, read it, then click back, you can’t be where you were originally?
I forgot to press control click and open a new tab. Silly me.
The rest of the HTML5 world can manage it, why can’t Crikey?
There should not be need for arcane workarounds.
Am I the only one who thinks Luke Foley is doing a good job ?
Also Labor should definitely run for the NSW seat.
Bemused
Quite!
I guess however that Both China and Putin would prefer NOT to have to fight – bad relations with neighbours etc – or even a nuke landing on them.
Possibly a firm non aggression alliance would do the trick. Russia and China make if clear to the US that they cannot touch NK without triggering WWIII. In return they get control of the Nukes,. This alleviates the USA’s issues while saving Kim’s face and his position.
I am in fact a little surprised it has not happened already.
Player One @ #528 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 4:52 pm
The ALP are so obviously to blame for every neo con disaster that to specifically blame them every time is superfluous.
Gorkay King @ #608 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 9:10 pm
His mum, possibly. Other than that, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone.
Player
You may well be right, but is it not just that that the US is saying today. They are saying that the recent test could reach most of the USA.
Like you I agree that it is unlikely but it is the USA who are saying it as well as NK.
It is of course all mularky. – The real issue is encirclement of China. Kim is just a convenient buffer come scapegoat.
That is why I think the US would love to have an excuse for an invasion. it is also why China and russia will take every possible option to stop them.
Boy we live in interesting times.
daretotread @ #612 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 9:17 pm
It certainly must be interesting for war mongers like you.
@Don
Indeed!
Steve777 @ #536 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 5:09 pm
The wealthy being wealthy because of merit is complete nonsense. In order to become exceptionally successful (wealth, sporting, academia, politics etc) has a very significant component of arbitrary opportunity.
Yep, that’s right, I just came out and breached a taboo in our society. I said hard work and talent while essential to attain exceptional success, were not enough. To achieve the exceptional success you are going to need to benefit from factors which are completely outside of your control.
zoidlord @ #549 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 5:27 pm
Yep, and they’re not smart enough to realise that by enacting SSM themselves they will be able to dictate the terms of surrender.
Ides of March @ #587 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 6:48 pm
I agree with Bemused that Labor need to fight in every seat.
Unwinnable seats give Labor an opportunity to experiment with new campaign techniques in a very risk-free way, much the same way as sporting teams experiment during the pre season competition or when it is clear they can’t make the finals.
We must also consider the need to campaign to get Senate / Legislative Council votes, as we saw in WA during the state election, every single Legislative Council vote counts when it comes down to the wire.
Ides of March @ #601 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 9:03 pm
The dynamics in the shift in the Catholic vote is interesting. And in the USA, where in the last election at least half the Catholic vote went to the Republicans.
Fr William Grimm writes on why US Catholics have turned to the right, and on Paul’s epistle to the Fallopians:
.
http://johnmenadue.com/william-grimm-why-have-us-catholics-turned-right-and-pauls-epistle-to-the-fallopians/
Grimace:
Its a byelection, not a full state election. The legislative council is not in play. Labor actually needs to sit this one out and let SFF and Nats fight it out.
Player
Stop being an idiot – you are a smart person whom I normally respect. But when you are narky you can be silly.
It is not warmongering to note what is possibly about to happen.
I assume you are aware that China yesterday had MASSIVE war exercises (check out the Daily express who luurve war porn) and also closed the yellow sea for naval exercises. Now what are they saying with these exercises and to whom. Pretty bloody obviously it is a warning to the USA “ie we are here, we re strong and you do not want to mess with us”
What do you think Xi and Vlad talked about in Moscow. Master chef?
Russia also had a naval display with 50 yep 50 warships sailing down the river.
Beijing and Russia played war games in the Baltic.
China sent a spy ship to check out US/Aus war games.
Sense a pattern.
Paul Keating noted this a few years ago but we are in a state not dissimilar to the lead up to WWI and we are one assassinated archduke away from calamity.
In one corner we have the Allies – US, UK, most of Europe, little lapdog Aussies, Canada, Japan, India, Israel and probably Saudi and Egypt.
In the the other corner the axis of evil; Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, most of the Caucasian stans, Serbia. Syria,
Trying to stay neutral will be: some Europeans, Turkey (despite being in NATO they will not risk being incinerated by Russia) Qatar, Lebanon, most of Africa, Indonesia Malaysia Singapore, NZ, Iraq.
Gorkay King @ #610 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 9:10 pm
I agree, Gorkay. It just seems to me that people who know nothing at all about how to run a political party, or to oppose a government, or to read the mood of the people, or develop and propose policy, pontificate about those who do, and seem to possess an inexhaustible supply of bilious chagrin towards those who do.
Ides of March @ #621 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 9:47 pm
I actually think that Labor should have a dog in this fight. They did in Orange and their preferences were decisive in unseating the Nat and installing the SFF guy. And, you may not know this, but the SFF votes in the Upper House have not consistently supported the Coalition.
I also think that, considering where this seat is, it might benefit Labor federal seats in an upcoming election to have the party campaigning there. However, I understand that campaigning is costly.
Dream;
I imagine its also tied into the flip the Republicans and Democrats went through in the 60’s onwards. Ie democrats became the more progressive party, republicans more conservative.’
Secoombe also mentioned the conservative catholics tore Labor apart, and now likely to tear the Libs apart.
Ides of March @ #619 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 9:47 pm
And you don’t want your voters to drift off by not allowing them to vote Labor at by-elections.
IIRC you are a Green. It shows.
C@ / GK
I know bugger all about Foley.
On TV he comes across as sneering and cynical.
Itza and Ides
Yes the shift of Catholics to the Liberals (actually often the Nationals) is one of the MAJOR demographic/electoral shifts of my lifetime. Time was that catholic meant labor even if from a social class normally associated with Liberals – Keating is the obvious example.
The DLP was the catalyst and most of those who shifted to the DLP never returned to the ALP but headed towards the libs or nats.
In part I guess it was that many Catholics were no longer the oppressed underclass. hey had moved up the social hierarchy with newer immigrants filling that role. In part I guess also the preaching from the pulpit about the evils of socialism and communism may also have been a big factor. I imagine too that once the teachers and priests in the catholic schools as well as most of the parent body shifted Liberal this also helped swing the emerging generation of Catholics away from the ALP.
Bemused
As I’ve clearly stated on a number of occasions I am not a member of a political party. Never have been. Not sure how arguing in Labor’s favour makes me a Green.
Ides of March @ #623 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 9:54 pm
As we type.
daretotread @ #626 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 9:59 pm
But Irish Catholic from Bankstown (pace Bankstownians) wasn’t too Liberal in those days methinks.
Ides of March @ #627 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 10:02 pm
My apologies, I must be confusing you with someone else.
But I don’t think your advice is helpful to Labor and it is quite noticeable that the ALP members I recognise on here are of a similar view.
daretotread @ #620 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 9:49 pm
It is hard to take you seriously when you so clearly get off on the potential for conflict.
CTar1 @ #627 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 9:56 pm
Take it from me, he’s not. It’s one of those unfortunate things where a character trait is misrepresentative of what the real person is like. He has fought many a good fight.
Cat:
Yeah, FFS over a NAT has benefits in that they do not vote the same. However I would say that in Orange it came down really close to the line and that because of non-compulsory voting it played a part with people dropping out. I dont blame some Labor votes in baulking at voting for a Lib or SFF. A lack of preference transfer meant that Carolyn Corrigan fell short in North Shore (also to a lesser extent in Manly).
I’d also wager that after the last adjustment the Federal Seat of Hume ( covers half of Coota) has because safer by moving the suburbs south of Campbelltown into (whatever seat Freelander won). I believe the other half is in Riverina (another safe coalition seat).
Player One,
I see you have taken on the Sisyphean PB task. Good luck trying to get any sense or sensibility out of dtt. Or respect. She has none. Except for her own cockamamie ideas.
@bemused
Doesn’t mean ALP members like yourself can silence others.
Interesting case in USA:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/court-rules-against-politician-who-banned-access-to-her-facebook-page-1501176625
https://www.engadget.com/2017/07/30/virginia-court-politicians-block-social-media/
zoidlord @ #635 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 10:20 pm
No, but it does allow me to give due weight to people’s opinions.
@bemused
Silencing and claiming someone is from a certain political party is NOT give you the right to “weigh in” on other people’s opinions.
Giving your own opinion while allowing others is fine.
Ides of March,
As an eternal optimist I believe that the people in the country seats are ripe for the flip. Just as John Howard devised a strategy for taking the tradespeople away from Labor, I believe the time is now right for splitting the rural labour force from their capitalist masters.
I don’t know if you saw the story on the weekend but the Union, United Voice have been campaigning and organising hard amongst the exploited workers in the agribusiness sector and have encouraged enough of those workers, mainly refugees and other immigrants, to organise themselves to make an appeal to the FWC to hold the first On Farm strike, in SA, for over 20 years!
There is movement at the station, for the word is getting around. And the word is ‘Inequality’!
Watch this space!
I think Foley is in a competitive position and have a real chance of winning the next state election. NSW Labor’s recent electoral performance has been good and party leadership seems to be switched on.
Glady’s seems to be a weak leader with questionable authority within her party, evidenced by numerous public spats, public policy failures, and leaks. The timing of the next election will either be with an unpopular federal Liberal government or Labor government that is still mostly in the honeymoon period.
I reckon NSW Labor is on the right track.
Gorkay King @ #608 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 9:10 pm
No, and I’m not so sure.
Good point C@tmomma in regards to your points. And I am watching that space.
C@tmomma @ #634 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 10:20 pm
I don’t expect DTT will be around for long. She’ll need to go get additional instructions from HQ.
Cat:
I just dont see there being enough people that Labor can flip in the rural areas. I would imagine a lot of those farm workers are likely to be backpackers/457/FIFOs etc and dont live there year round. The rural electorates are impossibly hard to win. At the state level in NSW, I imagine that the seats immediately west of the Blue Mountain are the only real chances for NSW Labor (Bathurst, Lithgow etc) but thats because they have retired labourers/power workers/miners and have recently been held by Labor . Conservative leaning independents like Windsor are more likely to win in rural seats.
Zoidlord:
I appreciate the effort, but I can manage with Bemused.
Now Player
Pot and kettle eh what.
Actually i really do not like conflict. I love an intelligent well reasoned debate. This is basically impossible here sadly.
I do plan to leave again. I only came back to post a six month report on Trump but stayed because I was trying to check out the new look and also because I think the current issues in the world are of importance and I would dearly love to get at least one or two of you actually thinking.
I actually now think that is impossible – you were one of the few whom I thought might respond to a challenge to think just a tad outside the box, but now it seems impossible to get anyone thinking.
I fear we are sleepwaking towards WWIII and here on this site we have quite a few who are hurrying us along the path.
So be it. I have done my best. My conscience is clear. Just do not whinge if nuclear winter hits.
I will go an boil a bit more water. Maybe I need a hen house too.
daretotread @ #644 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 10:40 pm
Bye.
zoidlord @ #637 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 10:25 pm
I have no power to allow or disallow anyone’s opinions. Nor do I seek such power.
I am quite comfortable with people agreeing or disagreeing with my opinions and will feel free to agree or disagree with theirs.
I am not one of PB’s wannabe censors.
Player
That comment is beneath you.
It is stupid and like the comment the RWNJ yelled at anti Vietnam war protesters.
Sad that a supposedly left leaning blog should parrot the inanities of the RWNJ
So be it.
daretotread @ #647 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 10:44 pm
I disagree. No comment is beneath P1. 😐
On Abbott’s dopey tweet…
Every single member of the misgovernment from Trumble down believes and will openly say exactly the same nonsense. They will be joined by a chorus of nitwits in the media.
Problem is reality has risen up and bit that stupidity in the arse.
The more the dopes double down on their trickle down idiocy the more people who have noticed that all they are getting is a golden shower will turn away and decide what Shorten’s offering is worth a shot (it can’t be worse for them).
And people are also waking up to the point Grimace made above. It takes a lot more than just hard work to reach the top. People work ridiculously hard and go backwards all the time. They aren’t slackers or stupid, just unfortunate. There is a massive slice of pure good fortune and happenstance behind every single success story. And even beyond that the society we all contribute to in our own way provides the foundation for any success. I have a simple challenge for anyone deluded enough to believe their success is purely their own – take a one way trip to Mogadishu with nothing but the clothes on your back. If you’re so shit hot you’ll be a big wig in no time. The reality of course is you’d much more likely be dead by dinner time.
More and more people are realising the rules of the game are rigged, and most of those who are winning started with a head start or just got lucky. Their patience with being told that their struggles are all their own fault is getting thin, and the old trick of deflecting the blame onto the dole bludgers or the immigrants is losing it’s potency.
The Libs Magic Pixie Dust doesn’t work when there isn’t a once in a century boom coincidently going on concurrently. Labor couldn’t be happier than if the Libs continue acting as though they still believe in Pixie Dust economics.