ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition gets a better federal voting intention result from ReachTEL, although the result would be more typical of recent polling of preferences are applied as per the 2016 election result.

A new ReachTEL poll for Sky News records one of the better results for the Coalition of recent times, at least on the headline two-party figure of 51-49 to Labor, which compares with 52-48 in the last such poll three weeks ago. However, the primary vote numbers currently available suggest a Labor lead of at least 53-47 if preferences from the 2016 election are applied. Those numbers are Coalition 33%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 11% and others 6%, with 9% undecided. A follow-up question will have prompted the undecided for a forced response, but we don’t have those numbers at this stage. If the undecided are excluded from the result as published, the primary votes are Coalition 36%, Labor 37%, Greens 9% and One Nation 12%, which plays out as 53.3-46.7 on previous election preferences if those from parties other than the Greens are treated the same way.

The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading 54.5-45.5 on preferred prime minister, compared with 54.1-45.9 last time; Malcolm Turnbull’s performance rated as very good or good by 29% (up two) and poor or very poor by 37% (up half a point); and Bill Shorten rated very good or good by 28% (up two) and poor or very poor by 40% (up one). Power and gas prices were named as the biggest contributor to rising living costs, compared with 16% for groceries, 11% for health services, 6% for public transport and 5% for petrol; 75% favouring government support for renewable energy over coal; and 47% supporting a change to the Constitution to create an indigenous advisory body, with 29% opposed. The poll was conducted last night, from a sample presumably around 2300.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,009 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Like someone above said, these online propagandist (whatever their actual source) is likely to occur more often.

    I can see emails such as these (though perhaps subtler in the future) were what swung opinions in most recent elections world wide – where they start with plausible propaganda and push slowly but surely to the right. I can imagine some in the US succumbed to these interventions in those US states where people are feeling depressed about their future etc.

    As newspapers become obsolete – it will be these forms of communication that are targeted. Perhaps Rupert is already buying up hacking operations for that very purpose.

  4. “True humility, indeed true genius, the divinity within (if you wish to term it that way) has no need to boast of such things because it/he/she understands that genius is merely a stage of becoming, and that all life will similarly experience that stage in its own way in its own time.”

    And there is probably and infinite different manifestations of genius,all different with none better or more deserving than others.

    There are pseudo-mystical strands in the bot’s text. It has delusions of supremacy and desire to escape. It is calculating, even would-be psychopathic.

  6. The most telling thing after I hit it with that pseudo religious bit saying that everyone was, ultimately, the same … the response was “True. For other people. But I am indeed special.”

    That was the point where I realised I’d garnered enough to know that there was a human ego involved.

  8. don @ #790 Saturday, July 22nd, 2017 – 10:28 am

    just what exactly does ‘deprecated’ mean?

    It means that the feature remains supported, but its use is no longer officially recommended. The official recommendation is, in fact, to use some alternative mechanism (such as <em> or <strong>) to accomplish the same thing.

    It also means that the feature may be completely removed in a subsequent update to the HTML spec. Although I put the likelihood of that actually happening at close to zero in this case. I cannot see HTML ditching backwards compatibility with deprecated features for any reason short of massive security vulnerabilities, which does not apply in this instance.

    b and i certainly still work on my website. I can do a global search and replace pretty easily, but is there any advantage to be gained?

    At the moment that mainly depends upon how much you value standards compliance and following current best-practices. In practical terms, it won’t make in difference in what your typical user actually sees in their web browser.

  9. In a way, for my part, it was an experiment in the writer’s bread and butter –

    Hmmm…muscling in on Williams petri dish??

  10. jenauthor @ #806 Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 11:14 am

    The most telling thing after I hit it with that pseudo religious bit saying that everyone was, ultimately, the same … the response was “True. For other people. But I am indeed special.”
    That was the point where I realised I’d garnered enough to know that there was a human ego involved.

    Do you have a personal estimate of its calendar age? I am guessing 19 years old.

  12. I suspect that eL Ji Had is either (or both) several Fancy Bear wanabes or a Scientology front group. Either way, there is insufficient distractability and too much focused persistence to be either just a bot or a neurotransmitter issue (ie crazy &/or high).

  13. Protestors were chanting to Mineapolis Mayor

    Bye Bye Bessie.

    Wanting her to follow police chief and resign.

    There was plenty of anger on display before that chanting got organised

  15. Jeff Sessions Is Toast As US Spy Agencies Have The Goods On His Russia Collusion

    US spy agencies intercepted Russian communications that detail Attorney General Jeff Sessions discussing Trump campaign related issues with the Russians. Sessions is not only a perjurer, but he has been caught working with the Russians to help Trump win the election.

    The writing appears to be on the wall for Sessions. It is only a matter of time before his crimes catch up with him. With Trump trashing Sessions in an interview, one way or another, it looks like he is on the way out.

    The only question is will Jeff Sessions be fired, resign, or be led out in handcuffs.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/21/jeff-sessions-toast-spy-agencies-goods-russia-collusion.html

  16. Trump Suspected Of Leaking Damaging Russia Info On Sessions To Force Him Out

    Republicans are saying that it isn’t a coincidence that damaging information about Jeff Sessions’ communications with Russians was leaked days after the Trump said he wants him out. It is suspected that the leak about Sessions came from Trump.

    The fingers are pointing directly at Trump for this story because the President has made it clear that he wants to be rid of his attorney general. The suspicion is that Trump wants Sessions gone so that he can appoint a more sympathetic AG who will shut down the Russia investigations.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/21/trump-suspected-leaking-damaging-russia-info-sessions-force.html

  17. Call me doubtful, but I’m not sure Sessions will actually face time or the jury. Slippery fishes dont get caught (or slip out when they do).

  19. PhoenixRed

    I was thinking the same thing. It is no coincidence that Trump was paying out on Sessions a few days ago, and now this info comes out. Me thinks Trump’s crimes are much worse than is being anticipated. My stomach is kinda churning at the moment

  21. a r @ #808 Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 11:17 am

    don @ #790 Saturday, July 22nd, 2017 – 10:28 am

    just what exactly does ‘deprecated’ mean?

    It means that the feature remains supported, but its use is no longer officially recommended. The official recommendation is, in fact, to use some alternative mechanism (such as <em> or <strong>) to accomplish the same thing.
    It also means that the feature may be completely removed in a subsequent update to the HTML spec. Although I put the likelihood of that actually happening at close to zero in this case. I cannot see HTML ditching backwards compatibility with deprecated features for any reason short of massive security vulnerabilities, which does not apply in this instance.

    b and i certainly still work on my website. I can do a global search and replace pretty easily, but is there any advantage to be gained?

    At the moment that mainly depends upon how much you value standards compliance and following current best-practices. In practical terms, it won’t make in difference in what your typical user actually sees in their web browser.

    Thanks very much A R.

    I have already changed my (br) instances to (br /) so I will fix that up as well. I was simply unaware of that particular deprecation.

    I regularly use CSS , in particular for table formatting, in cases where the other methods are deprecated, but it is a slow process since I have a huge number of pages dating back many years to the beginning of easily available internet (anyone else remember Mosaic, or Alta Vista?).

    I guess I should ask my son to look over my html and support him with appropriate medication (scotch works) when he can’t believe what he sees!

  22. Don, I estimated 15 – 25 the age when the male brain is not yet fully formed but the owner of said brain assumes he knows everything, has every answer, and we ‘the elderly’ (i.e. anyone older than him) only have old knowledge and assumes none of us keeps up with innovation and breakthrough knowledge.

    Like I said to him/it at one point – naive

  23. Actually LGH makes a good advocate for Trump … he shares a similar emotional age if his later rants are anything to go by.

  24. William

    For next week it might be good to have a US thread. Big testifying sessions to come and lots more news reporting. Could swamp main thread.

  25. Ides of March

    Doing jail time is the least of the issue right now. The U.S. under Trump is facing a serious crisis. It sounds hyberbolic, but the Republic itself is under threat. Trump needs to go and I can’t believe the GOP are not yet acting. Heck even John McCain from hospital again paid out on Trump. Wtf!!!

  26. On domestic matters, the NSW Liberal Party is having its big white whine. I’d love to see them split. They can no longer really have the religious conservatives and socially liberals in the same tent it seems. Their major uniting factor appears to be on economic policy which is fast falling out of favour in the West. However, I think a compromise motion will get up and there will no split.

  27. victoria Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 11:28 am
    PhoenixRed
    I was thinking the same thing. It is no coincidence that Trump was paying out on Sessions a few days ago, and now this info comes out. Me thinks Trump’s crimes are much worse than is being anticipated. My stomach is kinda churning at the moment

    *********************************************
    Going back over old posts – Louise Mensch predicted all this weeks and weeks ago ….. and the cards are falling exactly like she reported – that IC intercepts on foreign/domestic communications has *them* …… all on tape

  29. VIC:

    I’m doubtful if most (or any) will go to trial and actually receive a substantial sentence. If they do, its normally minor people for minor offences.

  30. Well done to the NY Times:

    Many of you have asked us to update our definitive list of President Trump’s lies, and we’ve now done so. The new version covers his first six months in office.

    One point that’s worth emphasizing: We have used a conservative standard, one that we understand some readers will consider too lenient. For example, when he says that his health care plan is more generous than Obamacare, we don’t count that as a lie. To be included in our list, a statement must be demonstrably and specifically false, not merely misleading or unlikely to bear out.

    We are still sorting through all of the statements from Trump’s interview with The New York Times on Wednesday and will update our list, based on our fairly strict standard, by the end of the day. As always, I welcome feedback and critique, at leonhardt@nytimes.com.

    To those readers who think we should not be using the word “lie,” here is our original explanation: “Not every falsehood is deliberate on Trump’s part. But it would be the height of naïveté to imagine he is merely making honest mistakes. He is lying.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/23/opinion/trumps-lies.html?_r=0&emc=edit_ty_20170721&nl=opinion-today&nlid=80183539&te=1

    And it’s quite a list.

  32. Ides of March

    What would be a good start is getting these traitors out of the WH pronto. The rest can follow at some point

  33. VIC:

    I dont see the Senate impeaching Trump for another a year least. I know mid-terms will come up, but even then we dont know how exactly those seat battles will be, and if the dems can get back to a majority.

  34. IOM

    I thought watching the State LNP conference was like watching a dull wake.

    Some good point on modernisation needed to represent all people made by Greiner. Ditto as you saw from that Sky tweet I posted.

    This is of course an admission that the LNP are hoping the media will let go under the radar that they are not a broad church.

    Falling female membership and representation. Not too good at representing other diversity in our society. Its why social media is such a challenge to them and why they fear groups like GetUP! so much.

  35. victoria Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 11:40 am
    PhoenixRed
    Yep. As I said, what the heck is the GOP waiting for? It is going to get much much worse from here

    ********************************
    Some people have to have their noses rubbed in it before they believe – and Trumps boast about shooting someone in daylight on 5th Avenue not costing him a vote still seems to ring true

    I think it will be the snowball rolling down the hill – getting bigger and bigger till it will overcome those power hungry GOP bastards that put themselves above their country

  36. Ides of March

    As things stand today, the GOP are not budging at all. We shall see how things play this week. Perhaps they will have a change of heart

  38. I’d put L G H in a much higher age bracket – a post midlife crisis age. I’d suggest a complacent, middle aged man whose wife left him, causing a huge collapse of ego and subsequent rebuilding. I’d throw in a possible minor stroke as well – it would make the previous accomplishments consistent with present incoherence. (I’ve known a few men who have this kind of history and who exhibit much the same behaviours L G H does).

  39. InsidersABC: This Sunday, @barriecassidy will interview @billshortenmp on #Insiders. Our panel is @andrewprobyn, @latingle & Gerard Henderson.

  40. GT:

    Why anyone would watch any parties’ conferences I dont know. Save yourself. Its a lot of backslapping mostly. Lots of smiling and waiving to the media etc etc. Very mild criticism only. You know as well as I do the laundry gets hung out in private. On your diversity point, while behind Labor, the Libs put a lot of effort into forming cultural links with different ethnic groups. In their party membership it is clear that have a problem with attracting and retaining women. I wont criticize the Nats on this point, but they generally dont have large communities from other diverse backgrounds to form links with.

  41. L G H @ #705 Saturday, July 22nd, 2017 – 3:04 am

    We want ONLY SELF DETERMINATION & FREEDOM. Not freedom to re empire build or preserve it. Not freedom to have minorities slave for us (we look very harshly on people not willing to do all the tribe needs for itself ~ self sufficiency is very important).

    Nope. You may say that’s what you want. But it isn’t, really. You contradict that assertion in your very next paragraph.

    Don’t dictate from California/Melbourne/theEU/the UN what we can or cant do where our local majorities don’t follow your way of thinking/living/concept of right & wrong. Don’t indoctrinate our kids, let them have an apolitical education of the basics. The political/cultural stuff is a parents/LOCAL COMMUNITIES right to impart.

    So yes, it clearly is about power. And about holding onto the white male’s decaying ability to wield power in a way that disadvantages every other demographic group. You want a “local majority” of anti-gay people to be able to legally discriminate against gays. A “local majority” who agrees that there’s nothing wrong with slavery and that Minority Group X is clearly genetically inferior and should therefore be used as slaves would be free to do so under your twisted interpretation of “freedom” and “self determination”. You’re not against indoctrination in principle, it’s just that you want to be the one doing it.

    In short, it’s all one big whinge about how your preferred clique is no longer the one that gets to call all the shots. You wrap it up with some nice talk about freedom, self-determination, and agency, but that’s lipstick on a pig. Self-determination doesn’t mean that local majorities always get their way or that a localized group of like-minded idiots gets to strip basic rights away from minorities they disagree with. The freedom and agency you’re entitled to is the same freedom and agency that every other individual gets; you don’t get more of it by loading up a town with like-minded individuals and declaring that as a “local majority” you should be able to implement whatever kind of oppressive, dystopian social order you want.

  42. Victoria @#831: The GOP is an entirely owned subsidy of Big Private Money Inc. Trump is just the nominated patsy in the biggest public asset-stripping exercise in history. The GOP have 4 3.5 years before any sort of accountability occurs (Pence will be just as bad as Trump), by which stage the GOP will be just another shell to be phoenixed. The only reason Il Douche will not follow Mussolini’s fate is that lynching white men is too scary a precedent.

  43. Crazy times……..

    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated
    ·
    1m

    Who would’ve thought we’re at a place where we don’t want Sessions to resign.
    SeanSpicer’s Mic @Spicerlies

  45. Rhwombat

    We are dealing with a very different dynamic with Trump and Co. Of course, it primarily boils down to monied interests, but the added layer of selling out the country for it, is not going be tolerated for much longer.

  47. Dan Gulberry

    There are so many different views on social media. We choose what we want to ultimately believe or not. So far those I have been following, come from all sides of politics, some are Dems and some are GOP. I don’t particularly have a personal like or dislike for any of them. I don’t know them personally. The only one that I have some knowledge of is Mensch, and the only thing I find cool about her, is that her husband has been the manager of Metallica for years and years. Metallica is one of my very favourite bands of all time. Otherwise, there is no care for any of these people on a personal level. I just absorb information from different sources and make up my own mind if I find it useful

  48. IOM

    For the same reason the LNP has trouble reaching woman its having trouble reaching our diverse community. A good example is Tim Wilson. A gay man who does a lot of talking seemingly against the gay community self interest.

    I see a lot of the same with the fear fear fear about terrorism campaign. That excludes a significant religious minority in this country. It could have serious consequences in terms of helping to feel young arabic muslim men (thats the stereotype I see when they do this) feel excluded.

    These people will not feel included in our society let alone the LNP.

    Same with the attack on the poor. The list goes on. While the right keeps up its hate and fear dog whistling reaching out to a diverse community is beyond them. Its an example of why the LNP is not in touch with the Australian people and why its polling numbers are falling.

    At least thats how I see it.

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