ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition gets a better federal voting intention result from ReachTEL, although the result would be more typical of recent polling of preferences are applied as per the 2016 election result.

A new ReachTEL poll for Sky News records one of the better results for the Coalition of recent times, at least on the headline two-party figure of 51-49 to Labor, which compares with 52-48 in the last such poll three weeks ago. However, the primary vote numbers currently available suggest a Labor lead of at least 53-47 if preferences from the 2016 election are applied. Those numbers are Coalition 33%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 11% and others 6%, with 9% undecided. A follow-up question will have prompted the undecided for a forced response, but we don’t have those numbers at this stage. If the undecided are excluded from the result as published, the primary votes are Coalition 36%, Labor 37%, Greens 9% and One Nation 12%, which plays out as 53.3-46.7 on previous election preferences if those from parties other than the Greens are treated the same way.

The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading 54.5-45.5 on preferred prime minister, compared with 54.1-45.9 last time; Malcolm Turnbull’s performance rated as very good or good by 29% (up two) and poor or very poor by 37% (up half a point); and Bill Shorten rated very good or good by 28% (up two) and poor or very poor by 40% (up one). Power and gas prices were named as the biggest contributor to rising living costs, compared with 16% for groceries, 11% for health services, 6% for public transport and 5% for petrol; 75% favouring government support for renewable energy over coal; and 47% supporting a change to the Constitution to create an indigenous advisory body, with 29% opposed. The poll was conducted last night, from a sample presumably around 2300.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,009 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 21 of 21
1 20 21
  1. C@Tmomma
    Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 9:01 pm
    If you want to make sense of what L G H was going on about yesterday, then maybe you should read this article, it’s a lot better put about the same sort of stuff:

    Well-spotted, C@T. The barbarians are inside the walls of the citadel, no mistake.

  2. @AJ

    “Donald seems quite unpopular”

    Quite, In fact he’s the least popular president in the history of polling.

  3. @AJ

    “Donald seems quite unpopular”

    Quite, In fact he’s the least popular president in the history of polling.


    The story is so-so, though nicely written and chewing baccy….but the comments section below is incredible. You can hear American voices loud and clear…voices calling ignorance for what it is, voices of indignation and righteous belief in something much better than Trump….

  5. Looks like any pretense that Turkey could join the EC is over –

    [Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Bavarian ally, Horst Seehofer, told Welt am Sonntag the financial aid Turkey receives as part of its bid to join the European Union should be cut off – a view also expressed by Martin Schulz, Merkel’s Social Democrat challenger in a September election she is expected to win.

    Seehofer said the idea of Turkey becoming a full EU member was “well and truly over” and developments there were “unacceptable and unbearable”.]

    Lots of things have happened in the ME in the last month.

    Now it’s just a matter of finding out which bits don’t belong to the Russians or Iranians

Comments Page 21 of 21
1 20 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *