ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition gets a better federal voting intention result from ReachTEL, although the result would be more typical of recent polling of preferences are applied as per the 2016 election result.

A new ReachTEL poll for Sky News records one of the better results for the Coalition of recent times, at least on the headline two-party figure of 51-49 to Labor, which compares with 52-48 in the last such poll three weeks ago. However, the primary vote numbers currently available suggest a Labor lead of at least 53-47 if preferences from the 2016 election are applied. Those numbers are Coalition 33%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 11% and others 6%, with 9% undecided. A follow-up question will have prompted the undecided for a forced response, but we don’t have those numbers at this stage. If the undecided are excluded from the result as published, the primary votes are Coalition 36%, Labor 37%, Greens 9% and One Nation 12%, which plays out as 53.3-46.7 on previous election preferences if those from parties other than the Greens are treated the same way.

The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading 54.5-45.5 on preferred prime minister, compared with 54.1-45.9 last time; Malcolm Turnbull’s performance rated as very good or good by 29% (up two) and poor or very poor by 37% (up half a point); and Bill Shorten rated very good or good by 28% (up two) and poor or very poor by 40% (up one). Power and gas prices were named as the biggest contributor to rising living costs, compared with 16% for groceries, 11% for health services, 6% for public transport and 5% for petrol; 75% favouring government support for renewable energy over coal; and 47% supporting a change to the Constitution to create an indigenous advisory body, with 29% opposed. The poll was conducted last night, from a sample presumably around 2300.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,009 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor”

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  3. Thanks WB,

    Another poll that shows the gaming of polls by the usual suspects to generate controversy and speculation.
    Underwhelmed personally.

  5. Senator McCain’s illness is something I wish nobody had to suffer . But please also remember that McCain was leading the charge when it came to the US going to war from at least the Dubya days. He continued the urging during Obama’s reign.McCain never saw a potential or actual war he did not like. Look at how many have died , the millions of refugees and the nations destroyed because of the US policies he pushed for and supported.

    So let us not forget . I leave the last words to McCain himself. Singing “bomb bomb bomb,bomb bomb Iran.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-zoPgv_nYg

  7. John Reidy
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 6:00 pm
    Evening all.
    Briefly, Grimace are there any figures on the breakdown of PHON

    From the previous…

    JR, ON’s PV and pref flows varied very widely in the March election. Labor gained only 28% of ON prefs in the booth where I worked while the seat-wide split was very close to 2:1 in favour of the Libs, for example. The ON PV in that seat was 9.8%. There were many seats that ON did not contest and even where they did stand candidates, their support was inconsistent. Likewise their pref flows was inconsistent. In Murray-Wellington, for example, Labor obtained 45.9% on the final ON pref distribution. Their vote will go all over the place.

  8. If we reallocated undecideds among the groupings in proportion to their support, we get Lab 37, Lib 36, Grn 9, ON 12 and OTH 6.

    So I get ALP 2PP coming out at about 37 + 80% Grn + 40% ON + 50% OTH
    = 37 + 7.2 + 4.8 + 3.0 = 52

    One thing that tells me is that One Nation preferences are crucial. Were the Coaltion and One Nation to come to a preference deal, it might make a big difference, even if the One Nation vote dropped S couple of points as a result.

  9. Outlier or not the mere sight of those numbers will give the Coalition “bed wetters” a cause for much bladder relief.

  10. Steve777 @ #8 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 7:52 pm

    If we reallocated undecideds among the groupings in proportion to their support, we get Lab 37, Lib 36, Grn 9, ON 12 and OTH 6.

    So I get ALP 2PP coming out at about 37 + 80% Grn + 40% ON + 50% OTH
    = 37 + 7.2 + 4.8 + 3.0 = 52

    One thing that tells me is that One Nation preferences are crucial. Were the Coaltion and One Nation to come to a preference deal, it might make a big difference, even if the One Nation vote dropped S couple of points as a result.

    ON and the Libs could form any alliance they like. But WA showed that as soon as they do that, the actual voters turn their noses up and do something different.

  11. Steve777
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 7:52 pm
    If we reallocated undecideds among the groupings in proportion to their support, we get Lab 37, Lib 36, Grn 9, ON 12 and OTH 6.

    So I get ALP 2PP coming out at about 37 + 80% Grn + 40% ON + 50% OTH
    = 37 + 7.2 + 4.8 + 3.0 = 52

    One thing that tells me is that One Nation preferences are crucial. Were the Coaltion and One Nation to come to a preference deal, it might make a big difference, even if the One Nation vote dropped S couple of points as a result.

    In WA the ON-Lib deals probably cost them both support. It also meant the Libs could barely campaign at all on their themes. They spent the entire time talking but Hanson and ON…terrible distraction….and just reinforced for voters that if they wanted change they had to vote Labor.

  12. Barracj Obama weighs in!

    John McCain is an American hero & one of the bravest fighters I’ve ever known. Cancer doesn’t know what it’s up against. Give it hell, John.

  13. The apparent lift in the ON vote will encourage the Spud-o-crats in the Liberal Party. Maybe HAM is entirely for their benefit.

  14. The last 2 months have had the biggest growth in 30 years
    If the economy has turned around the coalition’s position can be expected to improve

  17. Greensborough Growler
    Obama got one hell of a hard time from McCain for, amongst other conflicts, not “sending in the troops” to places like Libya, Syria etc and not starting a war vs Iran . Obama being very gracious at such a sad time for McCain but McCain is still a warmonger at the end of the day.

  18. Good evening all,

    The government and commentators can sprout all they like about employment growth, good times etc etc.

    It means jack shit. The lived experience is what counts. Wage stagnation, job insecurity, electricity bills soaring etc etc etc. That is all that counts.

    Cheers.

  20. poroti @ #17 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 8:23 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    Obama got one hell of a hard time from McCain for, amongst other conflicts, not “sending in the troops” to places like Libya, Syria etc and not starting a war vs Iran . Obama being very gracious at such a sad time for McCain but McCain is still a warmonger at the end of the day.

    The post was about the grace of Obama.

  22. Ouch! Louise Mensch gets a shellacking.

    ‘ Usurpation abounds, at home and abroad, and seems never to be walled in by anything as prosaic as the law. Mensch’s Supreme Court has proactive police powers and a Bruce Willis–esque “marshal” who chases down helicopters and colludes heroically with the rogue justices. Her Congress acts primarily in camera, and may already have informed Trump that he is no longer permitted to use his legal powers. Her FISA courts issue indictments they have no authority to present. And the rules? They’re suggestions, really. The America of Mensch’s imagination is a place in which the entire Republican party is imminently going to jail — on RICO charges, no less — because Paul Ryan is a partisan. What the Da Vinci Code was to Christian theology, Louise Mensch is to James Madison’s handiwork. See how the symbols line up in the moonlight?’

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/449671/louise-mensch-donald-trump-russia-conspiracy-theories?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=59707fd504d30150fbeb6999&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

  24. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull welcomed the figures in Melbourne on Thursday but warned sustained economic growth was not guaranteed.
    “Tomorrow’s prosperity can only be delivered by today’s reforms,” he said.
    “So when we consider how we change the world in which we live, we can’t hide under the doona,” he said

    What a pr*ck, every policy the have relies on hiding from the truth.

  26. Darn
    “If you are still around, do you know what kind of treatment they had to survive that long?”
    Combination of surgery (most can’t be fully resected but you can get rid of most of it), chemotherapy and radiotherapy. My friend went to Sydney for his radiotherapy as they had a special type of radiotherapy for brain tumours that caused less collateral damage. I think SA is getting a proton beam machine which is good for paediatric brain tumours.

    GG
    Incapacity in a doctor is a huge problem. I well remember a surgeon who was operating while he was demented. Very ugly.

  27. The economy in WA is sure not growing in any way that makes a difference to most households. Real per capita disposable income has been in decline for at least 6 years…..

  28. Diogenes @ #28 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 8:38 pm

    Darn
    “If you are still around, do you know what kind of treatment they had to survive that long?”
    Combination of surgery (most can’t be fully resected but you can get rid of most of it), chemotherapy and radiotherapy. My friend went to Sydney for his radiotherapy as they had a special type of radiotherapy for brain tumours that caused less collateral damage. I think SA is getting a proton beam machine which is good for paediatric brain tumours.

    GG
    Incapacity in a doctor is a huge problem. I well remember a surgeon who was operating while he was demented. Very ugly.

    So, is it a more serious problem than having an incapacitated politician?

  29. Figures meant stuff all if they contradict peoples’ lived experience.

    In fact economists and politicians banging on about how great the figures are merely adds salt to the wounds.

  30. Sprocket_
    The thing about Mensch is what genuine Intel/political insider would give her the hottest gossip and why would they given her history? Not someone I would trust my “cover” to. The use by her of the term “vast conspiracy” to describe whatever is meant to have happened should be a warning ‘Very light’ to her readers.

  32. Zoidlord

    How is WA going after Labor win btw?

    A recent photo of the State’s situation , possibly digitally enhanced. 🙂

  33. Are people paying more for gas and electricity than their groceries? I must be a more frugal user of energy than most!

  34. Re the flag: The Aboriginal Flag design is copyrighted to the man who designed it and is not publically available. It cannot be used in our national flag because of that.

  35. I would like to see a design nearly the same as the one we have with the Union Jack replaced with a platypus.

  38. Zoidlord
    Recovery ? Not sure. Each and every year the Colin Barnett government added to the state debt the equivalent of the total state debt he inherited from Labor. To do so through a once in a lifetime mining boom take a shed load of talent.

  40. When I was in year 9 we were taken to Sydney to see the Macquarie St bear pit. A division was called. George Nealy, the honorable member for Cessnock, was obviously drunk and was abusing imagined people on the opposite side of the chamber. Ken Booth, the member for Wallsend sat next to him and said to The Speaker “don’t mind George, I’ll look after him”. At age 14 I knew and most of the people of Cessnock knew they were represented by a drunk.
    In a safe seat, the MPs fundamental job is to be able to be led into the chamber during a division. Whatever other disability you have, if you can breathe and walk/be pushed you can function.
    P.S. In 1978 George Nealy was so drunk that Kenny Booth couldn’t get him into the house during a vital division. The Wran government was defeated on the floor and a general election was called which resulted in the first wranslide. The seat of Cessnock was eventually represented by George’s son Stan.
    The glorious history of NSW Labor

  41. Darn @#1336 previous thread:
    The prognosis of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) has changed significantly with the introduction of temozolomide, with median survivals in most studies increasing by more than 12 months over the older debulking and steroid treatments, but even the survival with temozolomide has not reduced the very large variability in GBM survival. GBM prognosis is variable not just because tumors in different parts of the brain have very different consequences (McCain’s is in the prefrontal cortex, which tend to have longer survivals, but more significant behavioral consequences), but because the GBM tumors themselves are heterogenous, with different parts of the same tumor behaving differently. McCain is 80, and age is an independent risk factor for GBM survival, so his survival is more likely to be measured in months, not years – even with temozolomide.

  42. Oakeshott Country @ #40 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 9:56 pm

    When I was in year 9 we were taken to Sydney to see the Macquarie St bear pit. A division was called. George Nealy, the honorable member for Cessnock, was obviously drunk and was abusing imagined people on the opposite side of the chamber. Ken Booth, the member for Wallsend sat next to him and said to The Speaker “don’t mind George, I’ll look after him”. At age 14 I knew and most of the people of Cessnock knew they were represented by a drunk.
    In a safe seat, the MPs fundamental job is to be able to be led into the chamber during a division. Whatever other disability you have, if you can breathe and walk/be pushed you can function.
    P.S. In 1978 George Nealy was so drunk that Kenny Booth couldn’t get him into the house during a vital division. The Wran government was defeated on the floor and a general election was called which resulted in the first wranslide. The seat of Cessnock was eventually represented by George’s son Stan.
    The glorious history of NSW Labor

    As they say, if you focus on how the sausage is made, you’d never eat one!

  43. GG
    “So, is it a more serious problem than having an incapacitated politician?”
    Definitely. It’s much worse in solo practitioners as there is very little oversight.

  45. [Shiftaling
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 9:21 pm
    Are people paying more for gas and electricity than their groceries? I must be a more frugal user of energy than most!]

    If you add in water/sewerage, my OH and I would certainly be paying more for these three utilities than for groceries. One problem is the fixed charge even if your consumption is zero for the quarter. We try to be frugal with heating in Canberra’s winter but with gas prices rising so much it is a losing battle.

  46. Louise Mensch‏Verified account @LouiseMensch Jul 19
    More
    I am going to report a lot more today. There are multiple stories coming out. Mueller is preparing the public for massive action

  47. Lizzie re that article on Shenhua in the previous thread. Gladys doesn’t lead a government. Gladys is the head of a Public Relations firm. When the O’Farrell government was elected, Gladys released a glossy media announcement every Friday afternoon. Most of them were rehashes of rehashes but she made sure her mug was on the 6pm news every Friday night.
    We have numerous infrastructure projects in progress at the moment and they all follow the same script. Big media announcement. Alleged justification in a document that is commercial in confidence. Unseemly haste in getting the project started. Costings from fantasy land. Cost blowouts. Duncan’ folly at Moore Park was constructed with no tender and a cost of $25m and was going to be finished prior to the Cricket World Cup. It ended up costing $38m. Was officially opened on the day prior to the first game at the SCG and they were still finishing it nearly 9 months later. I drive past this bridge a couple of times a day and the only things crossing it are tumbleweeds. Every project has been initiated in almost exactly the same manner and accompanied by tax payer funded glossy advertising campaigns on high rotation.

  49. Greensborough Growler @ #46 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 10:17 pm

    Louise Mensch‏Verified account @LouiseMensch Jul 19
    More
    I am going to report a lot more today. There are multiple stories coming out. Mueller is preparing the public for massive action

    I’m a bit skeptical on that. Hopefully Trump isn’t, and we get some fireworks anyways.

  50. Thanks Grimace and Briefly. So we probably can’t predict at all what the flow will be, especially not this far out from an election.

    Also Steve, re ‘flag’, we could become a Republic (even if we are all Elizabetheans) , but as you say the flag wouldn’t change.

    Now I think about Turnbull, and his flipping on this, isn’t there a principle involved, that we should have our own head of state?
    Isn’t that what is important, not that our current one has been around for a long time and it familiar.

    Sorry for the rant.

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