ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition gets a better federal voting intention result from ReachTEL, although the result would be more typical of recent polling of preferences are applied as per the 2016 election result.

A new ReachTEL poll for Sky News records one of the better results for the Coalition of recent times, at least on the headline two-party figure of 51-49 to Labor, which compares with 52-48 in the last such poll three weeks ago. However, the primary vote numbers currently available suggest a Labor lead of at least 53-47 if preferences from the 2016 election are applied. Those numbers are Coalition 33%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 11% and others 6%, with 9% undecided. A follow-up question will have prompted the undecided for a forced response, but we don’t have those numbers at this stage. If the undecided are excluded from the result as published, the primary votes are Coalition 36%, Labor 37%, Greens 9% and One Nation 12%, which plays out as 53.3-46.7 on previous election preferences if those from parties other than the Greens are treated the same way.

The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading 54.5-45.5 on preferred prime minister, compared with 54.1-45.9 last time; Malcolm Turnbull’s performance rated as very good or good by 29% (up two) and poor or very poor by 37% (up half a point); and Bill Shorten rated very good or good by 28% (up two) and poor or very poor by 40% (up one). Power and gas prices were named as the biggest contributor to rising living costs, compared with 16% for groceries, 11% for health services, 6% for public transport and 5% for petrol; 75% favouring government support for renewable energy over coal; and 47% supporting a change to the Constitution to create an indigenous advisory body, with 29% opposed. The poll was conducted last night, from a sample presumably around 2300.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,009 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. ‘He is scared to death’: Morning Joe reveals one simple reason for all of Trump’s baffling actions

    MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough said the president seems to be terrified that his connections to Russia will soon be unraveled — and will provoke a constitutional crisis to keep them from being exposed.

    He said fear of exposure explains the president’s decisions to fire FBI director James Comey and attack Mueller and deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein — who took over the Justice Department’s investigation after Sessions recused himself over his secret meetings with Russian officials.

    “Maybe he’s just scared to death that years and years of shortcuts are going to catch up with him,” Scarborough said.

  2. Trump Investigated For Money Laundering As Special Counsel Looks At Russia Financial Ties

    Both the FBI and Special Counsel Robert Mueller are looking at the financial transactions between the Trump family, Trump associates, and Russians for potential money laundering.

    The reason why Trump won’t release his tax returns or details of his business dealings is that they would reveal that the financial roadmap of his ties to Russia. Mueller is investigating Trump’s finances, so it is up to Trump to decide whether or not he is going to fire the special counsel. The Russia pieces are coming together, and they paint a picture of a president that is bought and owned by Putin and Russia.

    If Trump’s businesses laundered money for Russia, it would be time to stop talking about impeachment and begin discussing prison.

  3. Trump set a red line for Robert Mueller. And now Mueller has reportedly crossed it.

    Bloomberg News is reporting that the Russia investigation led by special counsel Robert Mueller is zeroing in on President Trump’s business transactions.

    The report quoted an anonymous source as saying that Trump’s financial ties to Russia are the focus: “FBI investigators and others are looking at Russian purchases of apartments in Trump buildings, Trump’s involvement in a controversial SoHo development with Russian associates, the 2013 Miss Universe pageant in Moscow and Trump’s sale of a Florida mansion to a Russian oligarch in 2008.” The Washington Post has not independently confirmed Bloomberg’s report.

    Somebody is basically daring Trump to try to fire Mueller.

  4. Trump’s Downward Spiral Accelerates As He Is Averaging Almost 5 Lies A Day

    Trump averaged 4.9 false or misleading claims a day after the first 100 days. Now, at the six month mark, Trump is averaging 4.6 false or misleading claims a day.

    Trump’s tally at the six month mark is 836 false or misleading claims, according to The Post.

    With each lie, Donald Trump diminishes the presidency and weakens what was formally the most powerful political office in the world. Trump’s self-serving lies don’t make America great. They are nothing more than a continuation of the pattern of behavior that Trump has used throughout his entire adult life. Trump lies to build his own personal mythology. It doesn’t matter who or what those lies diminish or harm, as long as they build up Trump

  5. And a good morning to the Black Wiggle, who surely must be considering his future. You can only trash the brand for so long.

    “Greens leader Richard Di Natale­ is facing dire warnings of a slide in his party’s popular support with a leaked internal analysis showing it is on track to lose three of its nine Senate seats, as it reels from the loss of two of its most popular senators.

    Sounding the alarm over the party’s plight, the Greens analysis also concludes the party is “losing the younger vote” despite­ a “priority” Greens effort to increase the party’s support among the young.

    The document, obtained by The Australian, declares “we’re not on track to save our senat­ors” and says a new strategy is needed to prevent losing key Senate positions in South ­Australia, Queensland, Western Aust­ralia and NSW.

    It warns of “stagnant or falling” support in most states based on polling conducted before the shock resignations of Scott Ludlam and Lar­iss­a Waters over the past week after they admitted breaching a fundamental citizenship requirement in the Constitution.”

  6. I really lose my faith in the average intelligence of my fellow Australian human-beings when Turnbull has the unmitigated gall to describe the liberal party as centrist without changing any of it’s hard right reagonomics and austerity driven policies and a significant number of people are like ‘yeah, that sounds about right, these guys aren’t so bad after all’.

    How’s everyone doing? I’ve just started my graphic design internship in Melbourne and am working nights at a comedy club. Still living in a hostel much to my annoyance. Some inconsiderate dildo set their alarm to go off at 4am today in a room full of 7 other people then fucked about with the torch on their phone for 20 minutes, shining it in my eyes several times and so I couldn’t get back to sleep or be more pissed off right now.

  7. Good morning Dawn patrollers. It’s going to be a rushed effort this morning as I have slept in a bit after hectic day yesterday that began with my dear old mother being taken to hospital by ambulance. The RAA monitoring outfit and the ambulance service would not tell where she had been taken (privacy reasons) and I had to ring around all the hospitals to eventually locate her. Now I have to take off early to set up a sausage sizzle at Bunnings for the CFS.

    One person spent up to $13,500 funding the registration of as many as 90 Liberal members to attend a contentious reform convention this weekend, sparking accusations they are trying to “buy” the party. The revelation comes amid accusations a group aligned with former prime minister Tony Abbott is trying to “stack” the event due to be held at Rosehill racecourse this weekend. It’s popcorn time!
    Sean Nicholls says that the current system has been described as “corrupt” and rorted by factional bosses and lobbyists, while there are warnings an alternative being proposed will unleash “ethnic branch stackers” and empower the party’s hard right wing, derided by factional opponents as the “Taliban”.
    Jennifer Hewett previews the weekend Liberal Party stoush at Rosehill. Google.
    Michelle Grattan writes that Bernardi will be look on at the meeting with interest.
    Curious story yesterday. A previously undisclosed, secretive but apparently animated chat between Putin and Trump at the G20 meeting. What could they have been talking about?,10521
    Our constitution is profoundly undemocratic writes Duncan Fine.
    Rising inequality is the single biggest threat to Australia’s social cohesion and the economy, Bill Shorten says, and tackling it head on will be the “defining mission” of a future Labor government. He certainly has plenty to work with on this front.
    And on that matter billions of dollars of tax revenue is being lost due to wealthy Australians using family trusts, according to a new research paper by the Australia Institute. It’s not that the government doesn’t know about it!

  8. Section 2 . . .

    Laura Tingle says that immigration was so scary that Turnbull hid it. Google.
    Dutton’s Austasi. From a crowded field, making Peter Dutton tsar over an immense Homeland Security-style department is easily the Turnbull Government’s most appalling move yet.,10520
    Telecommunications companies are misleading customers over broadband internet speeds and the worst offenders will likely face prosecution over dodgy advertising by the end of the year, the consumer watchdog says. I hope they really go to town over it!
    Tom Elliott writes that it’s time the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission focused on the big supermarkets’ quest for ever-expanding profits. Google.
    Congenital fibber MP Felicity Wilson is at it again.
    Trump’s extended, rambling new interview with the New York Times provides perhaps the clearest picture yet of his conviction that he is above the law – a conviction, crucially, that appears to be deeply felt on an instinctual level – and of his total lack of any clear conception of the basic obligations to the public he assumed upon taking office. Do us all a favour Donald and get out of it!
    Trump’s spitting the dummy everywhere!
    Nothing about the Trump presidency is normal.
    With the forced resignations of Scott Ludlam and Larissa Waters, the federal Greens are reeling, writes Ben Eltham. Can they survive?

  9. Section 3 . . .

    Why did Scott Ludlam and Larissa Waters resign from Parliament over holding dual citizenship, but not Eric Abetz?,10519
    A senior federal government staffer has been convicted and fined for harassing his elderly parents-in-law with a series abusive voicemail and text messages. Yes, they do attract nice types in the Party.
    Michael West reveals that the 700 women suing Johnson and Johnson for faulty vaginal mesh implants will not be pleased to hear that the healthcare giant has quietly reduced its exposure to medical negligence lawsuits.
    Sydney has a tourist with measles but I’m sure the herd is appropriately inoculated.
    Yet another priest about to be tried for child sexual abuses.
    A group founded by the Church of Scientology has been targeting schools in NSW and Victoria with brochures and a documentary about the dangers of psychiatrists, antidepressants and ADHD medication. How does society tolerate organisations like Scientology?
    The family of Australian woman Justine Damond may launch a significant law suit against the City of Minneapolis after the unarmed spiritual healer became victim to America’s ongoing police shootings. This probably the only way to find recourse.
    Harold Mitchell writes that Brexit has developed into a farce worthy of a Fawlty Towers episode.
    Why? Why? A court in India ordered a 10-year-old girl whose parents say she was raped and impregnated by her uncle to carry her fetus to term, ruling she is too young and her pregnancy too advanced to have an abortion.

  10. Tudge may as well be an unthinking robot. How can you ‘control your own destiny’ when you are require to conform to harsh rules and report constantly to a ‘superior’?

    Tudge said it was important to give an individual freedom of choice and the ability to control their own destiny, but denied any incompatibility between that belief and policies such as the cashless welfare card.

  11. Section4 . . . with Cartoon Corner Part 1

    Why Gladys Berejiklian’s $262 million Shenhua mine deal is a con. They only want to buy back the bits of land that weren’t going to be used anyway.

    Simon Letch has NSW Liberal Party members arriving at the weekend’s meeting.

    David Rowe has Trump right up shit creek.

    Broelman employs chaos theory on the Greens’ problems.

    Reg Leahy also has a go at the Greens.

    As does Matt Davidson.

  12. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    David Pope is unhappy with the handout to Murdoch’s Foxtel.
    Alan Moir with J Edgar Tuber seeing off Mr Toad.

    Paul Zanetti has the PM feeling safe.

    Andrew Dyson with the PM doing a suitability check on Dutton.

    A sporting image from Mark Knight.
    Jon Kudelka with the monkeys on the back of Turnbull and Shorten.

  13. BK

    Sympathy. It’s ludicrous that any medico can read my file to see my details (including close relatives) but you can’t find out where your mother has been taken.

  14. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
    When one of the enduring images of your party, repeated every week on Insiders, is of one of your Senators looking like a nanna and knitting in the Senate, it’s no wonder you are losing the Youth vote and membership coming to your party.

  15. The WA Aboriginal Affairs Minister has a gracious response to the native title decision (from the linked SMH article)

    Western Australia’s Aboriginal Affairs Minister, Ben Wyatt, said he “warmly congratulated” the Yindjibarndi people.

    “The Yindjibarndi have proven themselves to be determined and committed advocates in their pursuit of exclusive possession and have won today in the face of not insignificant obstacles over many years,” he said.

    Mr Wyatt also said that like other native title cases, this litigation had been long running and caused “fractures” in the community.

    “However, today’s result is a tremendous victory for the Yindjibarndi people and I hope they are able to unite and work together to ensure that they are able to utilise their now recognised native title rights to benefit all members of the Yindjibarndi community,” he said.

    There was a state election there recently.

  16. Good Morning


    Sorry to hear of your waking experience today. Just a point of contention. I don’t buy the whole the Australian Public has accepted where the centre is.

    The conservatives are barracking for Abbott or his proxy to get back to being PM. The Moderates are hoping for some wins and are running marriage equality as their numbers test issue so they know how what the numbers are.

    If the moderates win you can be dead sure we will see a free vote in parliament on ME and then a carbon price will come in but it will not be called that of course.

    Once thats done Turnbull has some hope of winning in the polls. None of this means the public is buying.

    The polls show no movement. Its all Labor to win its just by how much. Until the divided Liberal party decides to go back to science backed policy it will continue to fall in the polls.

    The whole point of the moderates pitch to be the centre is to get those policies through. Turnbull may have made a deal with Dutton to put that mask on. The problem for him and the LNP is that J Edgar Tuber has form in his views and if he is the puppet master thats not going to change.

    Thus convincing the voters that the LNP is in the centre of politics is going to be a hard things to do. The MSM especially the Murdoch media will try and run this narrative but like with May in the UK I don’t think the public are going to buy. After all. The UK has real climate change as a policy. The UK has ME already.

    So while you cannot directly compare here with the UK you can see what will win Labor the election. Equality of the fair go in the hip pocket .

    Unlike Corbyn this is Shorten’s second go and their is a lot less ground to make up for a change of government. That will see a return to the centre from the Labor party.

    This while neo liberalism continues to die overseas and we see the local affects of the whole trickle down impacting on people here. I have no doubts that Mr Shorten knows this and is holding the big guns for the campaign. In the meantime getting the narrative Labor is talking about back to the big end of town v the battlers is a winning strategy.

    None of that tells me the voters are buying the media narrative of the LNP returning to the centre no matter how long and loud the opinion pundits opine.

  17. BK! I hope your mum is okay now and in good hands. What a week! First my son, now your mum. Thank goodness for our amazing Ambulance Service and thank goodness for our amazing Medicare and a triple blessing to our Public Hospitals!

    Plus you’re pretty amazing yourself! You still got the Dawn Patrol out despite all your other competing interests and concerns!

  18. lizzie

    Suspecting is different to knowing. I think we may see interesting revelations later about the abdication. Given the later acceptance of Charles divorce the Simpson thing may have been the public excuse to oust a liability to the Monarchy.

  19. I suspect there are alarm bells at the AFR over Shorten’s speech.
    When reading there might be tax increases, they quickly clarified the status of the only tax they want increased

    “Mr Shorten does not spell out which subsidies and possible new taxes or tax increases he has in mind but his office said it was unlikely the GST would be increased.”

    Shorten flags higher taxes for top end of town
    Subsidies and tax increases previously considered off limits will be targeted by a Labor government in a push to address rising inequality.

  20. @Guytaur

    Thanks for your response. I think there is a lot of truth in what you said. I also hope the success of Labours progressive manifesto in the U.K. encourages Aus Labor to develop some bolder progressive policies. I’m not holding my breath though. Undoing the damage of the last 4-5 years to our education system and industrial relations and removing negative gearing would be enough.

  21. Guytaur

    No, it’s not just a suspicion, it’s knowledge. Edward was a weak personality. You forget I am so ancient I have read many stories about the Duke and his (and other rich tories’) links to the Germans.

  22. ‘It warns of “stagnant or falling” support in most states…’

    This is at a time when any protest party, given the problems with the Liberals, the trumpeted line that ‘both the majors’ are failing (true or not, that’s the message the voters are getting via the msm) and simply the facts of the electoral cycle, should be polling not only well, but better than they will on election day.

    Usually, at around this stage of the electoral cycle, we have Greens’ polling up around 16-18%, with complacent comments here about how they’re cruising for major party status, connecting with the voters of tomorrow etc etc.

    The problem is thus probably bigger than the polls are showing, given that those 18% results at this stage of the cycle collapse back to about 10% on election day (with voters telling those handing out HTVs that they were going to vote Green but have decided not to ‘waste my vote’).

    If past history is a guide (and if it isn’t, then psephology isn’t a thing) the Greens vote will be lower at the election than it is now – and possibly considerably so.

  23. He was childish in the Kings speech and utterly despicable in the Queen Elizabeth biographical series on Netflix. I imagine both of those portrayals were very true to life.

  24. Lizzie

    You ancient. Nah not possible.

    I should have been more clear. I meant officially acknowledged. At a time of war time to have doubts about the loyalty to your country of your head of state must have been worrying indeed.

    A lot like Trump today in reputation terms. Unlike Trump the British were able to manage the scandal by masking it with another scandal. Thus the Constitutional crisis did not become a basis on which the Germans could attack Britain on.

    The crisis just happened before it was officially revealed today.

  25. Interesting tidbit of information from Adam Creighton in The Australian:

    The Australian – Page 1 & 7 : 21 July 2017
    Original article by Adam Creighton

    Roy Morgan Summary:
    Professor Bob Gregory has told a conference in Melbourne that the Federal Government appears to be hoping that increased tax revenue will restore the Budget to surplus. He also noted that it had not been able to reduce expenditure in terms of its share of GDP, although it is managing to control it. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull told the conference that he hopes to reintroduce legislation to have the company tax lowered to 25 per cent by the end of 2017, while he noted that the government has prevented around 500,000 taxpayers being placed in a higher tax bracket by increasing the second-highest tax threshold by $A7,000.

    The aim of Dear Leader Turnbull was torpedoed thereafter by this from Professor Gregory:

    Economist Professor Bob Gregory said an increase in income taxes will be needed if the Budget surplus is to be restored.

    I bet we won’t hear that dose of reality emerge from Turnbull’s lips!

    However, what has also been reported of Turnbull’s comments suggests that he is going to take Matt Canavan on about funding for a ‘Clean Coal Power Station’:

    Turnbull cool on ‘clean coal’ funding

    The Australian Financial Review – Page 7 : 21 July 2017
    Original article by Ben Potter

    Roy Morgan Summary:
    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull had stated on 19 July 2017 that high efficiency low emissions (HELE) coal-fired power stations could help Australia to meet its emission goals set out in the Paris climate agreement. However, when asked on the following day at the Economic and Social Outlook conference whether the Federal Government would be prepared to help finance the construction of such plants, he said he would prefer if the market decided whether HELE plants had a place in Australia’s future energy mix.

    However, as the above precis indicates, maybe Malcolm, like Tony before him, just says on any particular day what he thinks his audience wants to hear?

  26. Thanks BK, have fun cooking sausages.
    The article about the Greens rightly questions Di Natale’s assertion that Greens members expect strategy to reflect that of a party of government. Most Greens expect policy that reflects strong environmental, social and economic values. The party only maintains clear product differentiation if it maintains this stance.
    This is a simple proposition, and if Di Natale doesn’t realise this, they will end up like the Democrats. You can’t keep the bastards honest if you join them.

  27. If the Greens implode will it be good or bad for Labor? I imagine most former greens voters will shift to Labor and perhaps some other progressive independents. Although there aren’t as many prominent left-wing independents as RWNJ independents. So basically it’s a case of Labor getting first preferences from Greens over second preferences. Doesn’t seem like it would have that much of an effect. Correct me if I’m wrong.

  28. So it’s a breach of privacy for the ambos to tell you where they’ve taken her but not a breach of privacy for the hospital to say “yeah, she’s in Ward 3′?

    Much the same thing happened with my mother in law a few years ago. She woke up in the night, realised something strange was happening to her, managed (after a couple of hours effort) to ring the ambulance, was taken to the big regional hospital (so a considerable distance from home) and no one else was notified.

    We had a call from my mother (who lived in the same town) who had been contacted by one of the neighbours when they saw the bins still out to ask if we knew where she was. This resulted in a huge phone around, involving both families, before we finally tracked her down.

    You would think there would be a system in place where, on admission, a patient is asked if their next of kin knows where they are and if the answer is no, the hospital automatically contacts them.

  29. Lizzie

    Exactly. However imagine if he had not abdicated. Government and Family acted together. Thats how the UK avoided the Trump mess of a head of state that is acting against the interests of the country.

  30. This is bad news for the LNP as well. Makes it harder to attack Medicare when even the US is accepting a government role.

    A new poll suggests the country may be shifting left on this core issue, with 62 percent saying it’s the federal government’s responsibility to make sure that all Americans have health care coverage, while 37 percent say it is not.

  31. @ Sprocket -wasn’t sure anyone would fall for the Australian’s propaganda.

    The Greens had 3 long term senators, and 6 short term. This is because Labor chose to give a long term to the Liberals instead of the Greens.

    Of course, in an election when they have 6 senators up for re election, they will lose senators.

    Of course, the election after, they will have 3 senators up for election, and will there fore have a chance of increasing numbers.

    Additionally, polling indicates that The Greens vote has ‘plummeted’ from 10.2% to 10.1% since the election. I don’t think Di Natale is losing sleep over -0.1%

  32. I never realised that abusing someone could leave the abuser traumatised.

    Poor man!

    The 42-year-old left a series of expletive-laden messages for the elderly parents of his estranged wife in late 2015.

    Blomely reportedly called both Julia and Ted Edwards a f***ing mongrel and f***wit among other names over the course of 26 to 33 hours.

    “This is probably the most traumatic event, emotionally, that Blomeley has ever gone through,” defence counsel Neal Funnell said of his client’s marriage breakdown.

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