ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition gets a better federal voting intention result from ReachTEL, although the result would be more typical of recent polling of preferences are applied as per the 2016 election result.

A new ReachTEL poll for Sky News records one of the better results for the Coalition of recent times, at least on the headline two-party figure of 51-49 to Labor, which compares with 52-48 in the last such poll three weeks ago. However, the primary vote numbers currently available suggest a Labor lead of at least 53-47 if preferences from the 2016 election are applied. Those numbers are Coalition 33%, Labor 34%, Greens 8%, One Nation 11% and others 6%, with 9% undecided. A follow-up question will have prompted the undecided for a forced response, but we don’t have those numbers at this stage. If the undecided are excluded from the result as published, the primary votes are Coalition 36%, Labor 37%, Greens 9% and One Nation 12%, which plays out as 53.3-46.7 on previous election preferences if those from parties other than the Greens are treated the same way.

The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading 54.5-45.5 on preferred prime minister, compared with 54.1-45.9 last time; Malcolm Turnbull’s performance rated as very good or good by 29% (up two) and poor or very poor by 37% (up half a point); and Bill Shorten rated very good or good by 28% (up two) and poor or very poor by 40% (up one). Power and gas prices were named as the biggest contributor to rising living costs, compared with 16% for groceries, 11% for health services, 6% for public transport and 5% for petrol; 75% favouring government support for renewable energy over coal; and 47% supporting a change to the Constitution to create an indigenous advisory body, with 29% opposed. The poll was conducted last night, from a sample presumably around 2300.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,009 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Vic @#845: I agree that Trump is a different dynamic, but that is a matter of scale (and blatancy), not direction: This was the principle that underlay the Nixon, Reagan and Bush administrations (and, truth be told Clinton & Obama). This is Mercantile Capitalism. The late, great Richard Condon wrote satires on it (from exile in Ireland) after the Manchurian Candidate: the Prizzi’s Honour books predicted the coming of Trump. The only minor detail was that the protagonist was originally of the Sicillian (not German) mafia.

  2. guytaur Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 12:08 pm

    BK

    Thanks for your Dawn Patrol this morning.

    **********************************************
    + 1 from me too – Thanks for your Dawn Patrol this morning…… and hopefully many, many more mornings, BK !!!!

  3. All the top breaking stories re Team Trump are being broken by the Washington Post it seems. Someone there must have links to someone inside Team Trump.

  5. BK:

    As I understand it Sarah Huckabee is Spicer’s replacement. Scaramucci (or however you spell it) is the head of WH comms.

  7. jenauthor @ #822 Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 11:31 am

    Don, I estimated 15 – 25 the age when the male brain is not yet fully formed but the owner of said brain assumes he knows everything, has every answer, and we ‘the elderly’ (i.e. anyone older than him) only have old knowledge and assumes none of us keeps up with innovation and breakthrough knowledge.
    Like I said to him/it at one point – naive

    Thanks Jen, that sounds about right.

  10. ‘He wants this investigation stopped’: Bernstein breaks down Trump’s end game if he leaked Sessions story

    Discussing Friday’s bombshell news, journalist Carl Bernstein of Watergate fame told CNN host Anderson Cooper that the prospect of Trump leaking the story himself appears to fulfill the larger purpose of giving him justification for firing Sessions — and then firing Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller.

    “He’s intent on is getting rid of Mueller,” Bernstein said. “That is his objective.”

    “He’s doing everything he can to undermine him — he would like to fire him,” the veteran journalist continued. “And there is a possibility that this disclosure could give him the mechanism, as we’re talking about

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/he-wants-this-investigation-stopped-bernstein-breaks-down-trumps-end-game-if-he-leaked-sessions-story/

  11. Harteau is interesting. Lots of first. First female police chief. First openly gay police chief. First Native American police chief.
    But it seems her police force is totally out of control and she had to go.

  12. GT:
    Freedom Boy is a hypocrite. I wouldnt blame him for the sad state of affairs on gay issues within the Liberal party. I blame him for showing he had no real beliefs when he became Freedom Commissioner (what a shitty wank of a job title) when he actively campaigned against it, and then spent thousands of taxpayer dollars on jaunts to Europe (including his partner). This is the very same thing he railed against at the IPA.

  13. IOM

    I just used him as an obvious example. I agree with your post entirely. Abbott did the whole plebiscite thing while Wilson was not in parliament

  14. In his time at the Human Rights Commission Freedom Boy eloquently demonstrated his disdain for the office and utter disrespect for the people he was supposed to protect.
    His appointment was a shameful act of pork barrelling of an upcoming politicians

  17. jenauthor @ #866 Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 1:06 pm

    This is a worry
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/20/hell-breaks-loose-tundra-thaws-weatherwatch?utm_content=bufferf9f5e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Sure is. Unfreezing of the arctic permafrost and the consequent release of methane is one of the major “tipping points”. Looks like it could happen a lot faster and a lot sooner than even pessimistic climate scientists predicted.

  18. Who is Lobbecke drawing Dutton as in the cartoon with PvO’s article BK linked in the DP ?
    Google .. news/inquirer/crash-or-crash-through-is-turnbulls-best-option/news-story/c87112c9e6b4d0ef9548ad009886435a

  19. I thought the statement by that police chief in USA that “She did not need to die” was very odd.

    Did she mean “SHE did not need to die, implying someone else might” or did she mean “She did not NEED to die, implying she could have received some other act of violence short of death”.

  21. The Trump defence strategy is being slowly revealed.

    1. Fire Sessions.
    2. Appoint a compliant AttorneyGeneral who will fire Mueller.
    3. Premptively pardon everyone involved in the Trump campaign, including all his children and in laws.
    4. Get Scarramouche and Murdoch to spin like a top.
    5. Feed the Republican lawmakers a steady diet of partisan bills and flattery.

    Just on the pardon, the US Constitution allows the President to pardon for any federal crime, except impeachment. Traditionally, US Presidents sign a stack of pardons a few days our from leaving office. Eg Obama pardonned Chelsea Manning who was barely into her 35 years for treason.

    Precedent wise, the most relevant pardon ever granted was by Gerald Ford, who on attaining office, pardonned Richard Nixon for ‘all past and future crimes’.

  22. Timmy was on 702 after that appointment being interviewed by Deb ?? Sorry forgotten her last name. I texted a message pointing out the hypocrisy of someone from an organisation that had called for the abolition of the HRC accepting a $350k job at said organisation. Timmy got shitty and condescending really fast. He then told a whopper. He claimed he was a defender of the HRC. A quick Google turned up nothing. Another sms but Deb wasn’t that brave. One thing the libs are consistent with is their stunning ignorance of the web.

  23. Well I’ve often said that in my experience those who scream the loudest and longest about taxpayer funded appointments are invariably not only the first to pony up when one is offered, but to make sure they milk every cent of entitlement out of it.

  26. Back in 1980 I stayed in an old hotel in Prague, then still well and truly behind the iron curtain. Behind a couple of the ventilation thingys in the room were little microphones. Clearly visible if one looked closely

    I heard yesterday that in Beijing there are two million pairs of ears and eyes whose sole employ is listening.

  27. PhoenixRed

    I can’t decide whether The WH leaked the sessions stuff or WaPo had this for quite sometime waiting for the go ahead on when to report it. Could it be that after Trump’s comments on Sessions the other day , the green light was given to WaPo from those who wanted to pre empt Trump. Cos the bottom line is that Sessions is inextricably connected to Trump. ie Sessions crimes are aligned with the Trumpster. So I can’t understand how Sessions can be sacked without blowback falling on Trump himself. I can’t quite follow the strategy, but all is not what it seems

  28. sprocket_ Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 1:48 pm

    The Trump defence strategy is being slowly revealed

    **************************************

    Sprocket – I am not a legal person to state an opinion but :

    According to such eminent US legal voices as By Laurence H. Tribe, Richard Painter and Norman Eisen it is not possible for Trump to pardon himself :

    No, Trump can’t pardon himself. The Constitution tells us so.

    Can a president pardon himself? Four days before Richard Nixon resigned, his own Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel opined no, citing “the fundamental rule that no one may be a judge in his own case.” We agree.

    The Justice Department was right that guidance could be found in the enduring principles that no one can be both the judge and the defendant in the same matter, and that no one is above the law.

    The Constitution specifically bars the president from using the pardon power to prevent his own impeachment and removal. It adds that any official removed through impeachment remains fully subject to criminal prosecution. That provision would make no sense if the president could pardon himself.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/no-trump-cant-pardon-himself-the-constitution-tells-us-so/2017/07/21/f3445d74-6e49-11e7-b9e2-2056e768a7e5_story.html?utm_term=.e8a11013cf3d

  29. I should add that Trump stated his displeasure with Sessions other day, and intimating he should be relieved of his position. Sessions says he is not going anywhere. In meantime. WaPo reports of intercepts of Sessions with Ambassador that have not been disclosed. Why would Trump want to leak that information? The intercepts apparently were discussions related to the Trump campaign. This feels more like a warning shot to Trump and/or a way to push him to act in a certain way. A test if you like.

  31. Vic:

    The Washington Post has had all the juicy stories on Team Trump which makes me suspect they have a link to the WH and a leaker on the inside.

  32. ALSO – according to this opinion Trump would also have problems pardoning his own children – as they may used/questioned/accomplices in the implication of Trumps ‘crimes’

    Although presidents may not pardon themselves, they may pardon their confederates in crime. But if these pardons are intended to shield a president from prosecution or otherwise facilitate committing a crime, the president could be impeached or prosecuted for granting such pardons. Remember, the Watergate burglars were offered presidential pardons for their silence. This formed one of the many charges against Nixon in the articles of impeachment voted by the House Judiciary Committee.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/so-could-trump-pardon-himself/2017/07/07/d2a1af26-60f8-11e7-8adc-fea80e32bf47_story.html?utm_term=.c4ff9db34a5d

  34. Fess

    Could be. From what I have gleaned, WaPo has been told by Mueller not to disclose info that is in their possession as it is a matter of national security. They had this story on the Sessions intercept since early June, yet they report after Trump pays out on Sessions. They must of got the go ahead. As a said, obviously part of some strategy that is not clear to me

  36. Vic:

    Yes I remember you linking to the Jester’s blog previously. It’s always interesting looking back on how things have panned out.

    On Scaramucci, what a flake! He’s probably just trying to keep on the Republican side by reversing his previously expressed opinions of TRump, but Team Trump is slowly going belly-up anyway. Why shred your integrity for someone like Donald Trump FFS who only ever thinks about, cares about Donald Trump!

  37. Fess

    Scaramucci like the rest of them who hitch their wagon on the Trump train, obviously have monied interests. That is number one reason for people to sell their soul

  39. victoria Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 2:52 pm
    Fess

    What an embarrassment this Scaramucci character is. Brings shame to my Italian heritage!!!

    *******************************************

    Bill Palmer writes that he will last 3 weeks …( and Bannon, Priebus ….. and Spicer are all pissed off with Scaramucci hiring )

    Who the hell is Anthony Scaramucci? Who cares doesn’t matter. He may or may not have any qualifications that are relevant to his new job as Donald Trump’s White House Communications Director, but even if he does, it won’t help him. Scaramucci entered the job today all bright eyed and happy to be there, confident and at ease with himself. Give it three weeks, because we’ve seen this show before.

    But here’s why Anthony Scaramucci will become the next Sean Spicer before long, and it comes down to three words: Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

    After Trump got tired of watching Sean Spicer swing and miss daily in press briefings, he began sending Spicer’s deputy Sarah Huckabee Sanders to the podium instead. She entered that role all bright eyed and happy to be there, confident and at ease with herself, just as Anthony Scaramucci did today. History repeats. But here’s the thing: the task of trying to sell Trump’s silly lies, to a room full of people that know they’re lies, wears you down pretty quickly. It took Sarah three weeks to go from being confident and relaxed to being the next Spicer.

    And that’s the blueprint. Now we’re going to see Donald Trump’s lie factory grind Anthony Scaramucci into the ground, just as it ground Sarah Huckabee Sanders into the ground. Just as it drove Sean Spicer into the ground. Just as it drove Reince Priebus into the ground. Scaramucci, confident as he may be today, will be ground into pulp by the sheer absurdity of trying to defend Trump’s constant lies. Give it three weeks before he becomes indistinguishable from Spicer.

  41. Vic:

    Scaramucci and Preibus apparently don’t get on. Like at all. Things could get even more interesting in Team Trump.

  42. victoria Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 3:13 pm

    PhoenixRed

    Everything Trump touches dies………..

    *********************************************
    I reckon a LOT of people are going to ever regret backing Trump – aides, appointees, military men .etc etc – their future careers will be forever tainted by their support of Trump …………………

    The fact that he is shedding Lawyers as quick as he hires them – and they get to find out what’s actually going on …… and then run like hell away from him tells us all we need to know

  43. I reckon a LOT of people are going to ever regret backing Trump

    That’s what I reckon too. I just wish there were more sitting Republicans distancing themselves from him. That would give me more confidence that this shitstorm is coming to an end.

  44. Trump must also be aware that everything Mueller has accumulated will be digitally filed somewhere….and, most likely, backed up somewhere in the catacombs of the FBI or the CIA or Defence or one-one-of-a-dozen-other intelligence silos.

    The institutions have Trump in their sights. There’s next to nothing he can do about it. His biggest problem is Trump’s pursuers know much more about him and his co-conspirators than he can ever know about them. He can really only guess about the information they have…guess and wonder if they have the truth, and what they will do with it.

    His only defenders are Congressional Republicans. Once a sufficient number of them decide Trump is dispensable, he’s finished. So we have to watch what unfolds in the Republican Caucus. Is the Republican leadership compromised? Will they afford shelter to Trump, come what may? Will electorally vulnerable Republicans peel off and align with the Democrats? Will the old-school Republicans decide Trump has to go…that this is necessary for America and for their own Party? What would trigger such a coup?

  45. Confessions
    Saturday, July 22, 2017 at 3:13 pm
    Vic:

    Scaramucci and Preibus apparently don’t get on. Like at all. Things could get even more interesting in Team Trump.

    Scaramucci is a Democrat. The decision to hire him is idiotic. He could be the best communicator on the planet, but the partisans in the WH will only feel outrage. Trump needs to hold his team together. Instead he is provoking mutiny.

  46. The Scaramucci appointment will appear totally senseless to Congressional Republicans. He’s been fighting for and donating to the other side.

  50. Trump Regrets is a great twitter account to follow. It retweets Trump voters who now regret their vote and realise they were lied to and / or that Trump is incompetent or a demagogue. It’s good for ones sanity to read through them.

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